Inflation figures for January 2020 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to 12.13% YoY (0.87% MoM). The current reading is also 15bps ahead of the December 2019 reading, with pressures stemming from the food inflation sub-index (+18bps to 14.85% YoY).

* Food inflation rose by 18 bps to print 14.85% YoY (December 2019: 14.67% YoY)
* Core inflation advanced by 2 bps to 9.35 % YoY (December 2019: 9.33% YoY)
* Urban inflation rose by 16 bps to 12.78% YoY. Similarly, Rural inflation climbed by 13 bps 11.54% YoY

All Item Index

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.13 percent (year-on-year) in January 2020. This is 0.15 percent points higher than the rate recorded in December 2019 (11.98) percent.

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.87 percent in January 2020, this is 0.02 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in December 2019 (0.85) percent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.46 percent, showing 0.06 percent point from 11.40 percent recorded in December 2019.

The urban inflation rate increased by 12.78 percent (year-on-year) in January 2020 from 12.62 percent recorded in December 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.54 percent in January 2020 from 11.41 percent in December 2019.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.92 percent in January 2020, up by 0.02 from 0.90 percent recorded in December 2019, while the rural index also rose by 0.83 percent in January 2020, up by 0.01 from the rate recorded in December 2019 (0.82) percent.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 11.92 percent in January 2020. This is higher than 11.83 percent reported in December 2019, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2020 is 11.04 percent compared to 11.00 percent recorded in December 2019.

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 14.85 percent in January 2020 compared to 14.67 percent in December 2019.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and Cereals, Meat, Oils and fats, Potatoes, yam and other tubers and Fish.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.99 0.97 percent in January 2020, up by 0.02 percent points from 0.97 percent recorded in December 2019.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.86 percent, 0.12 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2019 (13.74) percent.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.35 percent in January 2020, up by 0.02 percent when compared with 9.33 percent recorded in December 2019.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.82 percent in January 2020. This was up by 0.01 percent when compared with 0.81 percent recorded in December 2019.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Hospital services, Vehicle spare parts, Cleaning, Repair and hire of clothing, shoes and other footwear, Glassware, tableware, and household utensil, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Repair and hire of footwear, Garments and Passenger transport by air.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.11 percent for the twelve-month period ending January 2020; this is 0.04 percent points lower than 9.15 percent recorded in December 2019.

State Profiles

In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In January 2020, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Sokoto (15.20%), Kebbi (14.37%) and Niger (14.23%), while Delta (9.95%), Benue (9.61%) and Kwara (9.49%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, January 2020 all items inflation was highest in Ondo (2.17%), Anambra (2.04%) and Bauchi (1.81%), while Benue (0.04%) recorded the slowest rise on month on month inflation with Kogi and River recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level or negative inflation rate).

Food Inflation

In January 2020, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Sokoto (19.08%), Ogun (18.72%) and Nasarawa (17.07%), while Bayelsa (12.91%), Delta (11.57%) and Benue (11.33%) recorded the slowest rise.

On month on month basis, however, January 2020 food inflation was highest in Ondo (2.95%), Anambra (2.61%) and Abuja (2.57%), while Benue, Kogi and River recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

SOURCE:https://brandspurng.com/2020/02/18/nigeria-headline-inflation-accelerates-to-12-13-in-january-2020-0-15-higher-than-december-2019-rate/