[size=20pt] PDP primaries: Zoning may be the joker, says new poll[/size] The Sun Publishing Wednesday, December 29, 2010 Photo: Sun News publishing
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A new poll has revealed that Six out of every 10 automatic delegates to the presidential nomination convention of the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) believe the principle of zoning will determine the way they will vote in selecting the party’s candidate.
According to the poll conducted by some social scientists and coordinated by former head of department of Sociology, Bayero University, Kano, Mohammed Nu’uman Habib, 60% of the respondent delegates still considered zoning as germane to where the pendulum will swing during the presidential primary.
Meanwhile, 24% of the respondents considered zoning as of little importance while 16% were uncertain.
The report which was released on December 26 in Kano cited fear of intimidation as a minus for our democracy. “Who gave you my number? How did you get my name?” were often the first questions respondents raised and they had to be reassured.
Out of the 420 delegates that responded to the telephone based interview, 57% said they “don’t know” or were unwilling to say who they would vote for, a clear indication that there was the fear that they may be sanctioned by the godfathers. As many as 57% of the delegates said they were undecided on who they would be voting for in the presidential primaries if the contest is between incumbent President, Jonathan, and his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar.
In effect, the delegates to the PDP presidential primaries coming up in about a forthnight from today were keeping the campaign teams of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and, former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, on their toes as they were not in a hurry to say which of the two camps they would pitching their tents with,” the report revealed.
The polls carried out from 19th to 21st December saw the delegates rating incumbency factor as being of “little importance.” 46.77% said incumbency was of no significance to their voting intentions. Twenty-five percent of the respondents or a quarter of the respondents described incumbency an important.
Asked to rate incumbency, experience, credibility, respect for zoning, and party’s chances at the general elections and the importance they attach to these in their considerations of who they would vote for, the respondents provided some insights into what they were likely to be guided by.
In totality, delegates spoken to were unanimous that top on their considerations for a choice of presidential flagbearer would be the candidate most likely to defeat other parties in the general elections, a consideration rated “very important” or “important” by 92% of those surveyed.
Also on the shopping list of qualities the delegates were looking for between Jonathan and Atiku were experience and credibility. While 88% of the respondents rated experience as either “very important” or “important,” a slightly higher percentage, 91% said credibility in the sense of promise kept, was also of utmost importance.
The respondents, drawn from a list of members of the National Assembly, zonal and state youth leaders, as well as the state chapters’ chairmen were however, forthcoming on what would decide how they vote during the primaries.
An analysis of the distribution of those already committed to the two candidates, revealed that President Jonathan might have a majority from the South-south candidates, while Atiku might have an advantage in the South-west. Atiku was also tipped to have majority votes in the North-west and North-east zones. Delegates from the South-east and North-central zones formed the majority of those that refused to say how they would vote.
Delegates were also asked to say which of the presidential candidates in the opposition parties they considered as threats. About 44% responded, “none,” 46% mentioned Buhari, while others replied, “don’t know.” so much for all these endorsements, eh? |
