Speculating in respect to the current activities happening in the oil industry of Nigeria, Dangote might just be taking over the oil industry..

- Seizure of oil wells:
https://m.guardian.ng/news/nigeria-revokes-eleven-oil-licenses/

- Dangote refinery:
https://guardian.ng/business-services/dangote-refinery-raising-hope-for-nigerias-oil-sector/

- Dangote fuel stations (speculation)..

Would other investors being willing on investing a huge amount of money in the three categories like dangote may be speculating to do, considering facts of instability and Govt policies?

Dangote would be a major price regulator because he would be operating on the complete chain from extracting crude to consumers directly, his dominating effect would definitely push off a good chunk of competitors from the market.

Only International companies would be able to challenge Dangote, the question now goes.. "How many international companies are willing to invest on such massive scale in Nigeria"?

He's heading for disaster....

The electric revolution is under way.....

NwaNimo1:
He's heading for disaster....

The electric revolution is under way.....

Crude would still have its market, Tesla stock is not in good shape..

Dangote took loans to build his refinery....and the banks were pleased to lend him the money because if the worst comes to the worst, they can simply take over his other businesses and recoup their loans.

And the government (both PDP and APC ) helped him get loans because....they can't build refineries.

The elephant in the room is fuel subsidy. Subsidy means that any private investor building a refinery will be building it at a loss potentially. So, only guys with alternative sources of income like Dangote can build refineries. And if government insists on keeping subsides (yes, I know that the NNPC boss said it may go...but that's what his predecessors have been saying, and it hasn't gone)...and worst case scenairo , Dangote operates at a loss...at least the banks can...(see the first paragraph).

If subsidy was removed, we would see more people building more refineries, and competing with Dangote. The subsidy is what is preventing new investments (It is also the reason why NNPC can't build new refineries and upgrade existing ones, because they cannot earn a big enough profit to do so)

But the thing is, Nigerians don't want subsidy to go. Nor do they want NNPC privatized. So...Dangote becomes dominant....but at the end of the day the winners are the banks.

If you want Dangote , or really his bankers, not to rule over our oil sector, oil subsidy has to go.


P.S Oil well seizures are due to companies not developing their concessions, not due to any plot. You get oil wells in 2013, with the conditon that you get them developed in 5 years, then when 2018 comes and nothing has been done, you get a 2 year extension, and nothing done?...okay if I was the regulatory body, I won't be waiting much longer.

Esseite:


Crude would still have its market, Tesla stock is not in good shape..

But there will be over capacity....what makes Dangote think he can do it more profitably?

Even crude extraction is too costly and efficient in Nigeria.

Ps: check tesla over the past 12 months. its one of the best performing.

northvietnam:
since how many years

Back to my opinion, most money bags in Nigeria prefer real estate investment abroad ... now Dangote don enter oil people will start shouting monopoly. Watch how fuel price will reduce drastically when he start refining and retailing too... the problem I envision is he will push most oil marketers out of business cuz I know his trucks will be hauling pms to all his feelings stations nations wide just like they do to his cements

Fuel price is already reducing around the world - and it's not because of Dangote!

Fuel na bad market for the forseeable future - The saudi's were clever enough to cash in late last year with the flotation of Aramnco

Within weeks oil prices crashed leaving gullible investors with losses to carry!

Yet despite the low oil prices Saudis are prepared to sell their last drop at $20 p/b to diversify!

NwaNimo1:


But there will be over capacity....what makes Dangote think he can do it more profitably?

Even crude extraction is too costly and efficient in Nigeria.

Ps: check tesla over the past 12 months. its one of the best performing.

His refinery would be the largest in Africa, his capacity can comfortably feed Nigeria and still export.

He would obviously bid for oil well and get a big one..

He would be drilling, refining, and retailing.. he would control his price to make good profit..

Esseite:



His refinery would be the largest in Africa, his capacity can comfortably feed Nigeria and still export.

He would obviously bid for oil well and get a big one..

He would be drilling, refining, and retailing.. he would control his price to make good profit..

So Dangote now drills for oil?

NwaNimo1:


So Dangote now drills for oil?

Speculating... if he decides to compete on the three categories..

He won't live forever

NwaNimo1:


Fuel price is already reducing around the world - and it's not because of Dangote!

Fuel na bad market for the forseeable future - The saudi's were clever enough to cash in late last year with the flotation of Aramnco

Within weeks oil prices crashed leaving gullible investors with losses to carry!

Yet despite the low oil prices Saudis are prepared to sell their last drop at $20 p/b to diversify!

Thanks for the enlightening me.. I even pray oil vanishes cuz only can only useless country diversify