http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/guest-articles/goodluck-jonathan-gets-the-pdp-nomination.html

Goodluck Jonathan Gets the PDP Nomination

Written by Amb. John Campbell

Monday, 24 January 2011 16:29

JOHN CAMPBELL, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007, is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, is published by Rowman & Littlefield in November.

Bribery and intimidation likely helped Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan achieve his overwhelming defeat of former vice president Atiku Abubakar for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) presidential nomination. As a sitting president, Jonathan had access to unlimited amounts of money for bribes as well as control of the security services. With the PDP delegates assembled in one place -- Eagle Square in central Abuja -- his operatives mixed carrots, such as promises of immunity from prosecution, with sticks, including the threat of prosecution to those who remained recalcitrant or who reneged after accepting a bribe.

As the Giant of Africa now turns its attention to country-wide presidential elections, the contest is shaping up to be dangerous and destabilizing, pitting a Christian candidate against a Muslim candidate -- a competition Nigerians have always tried to avoid. Perhaps for the first time, Nigerian presidential elections will matter because the leading candidates are identified with rival regions and religions, identities more important to Nigerians than their national one. If the elections are not credible, there is likely to be much greater popular protest than there has been in the past. Disgruntled elites are already mobilizing popular anger around religious, regional and ethnic identities as they battle to keep control of the state and its oil wealth. Escalating violence in the Middle Belt -- the central part of Nigeria where religious, ethnic and economic boundaries coincide -- and the North, as well as bombings in Abuja, Nigeria's capital, only hint at what is to come.

Since 1999, the PDP presidential nomination has been tantamount to winning the presidency. Nigerian powerbrokers from all parts of the country remained sufficiently united to ensure that a PDP consensus candidate could be rigged into office, particularly because of an informal arrangement among Nigeria's elite, 'zoning,' that provided for the presidency to alternate between the predominately Christian South and the predominately Muslim North. But Jonathan's candidacy has splintered that unity. Originally a Southern Christian vice president, he became an "accidental" president when President Yar'Adua, a Muslim from the North, died. Under zoning, it is still the North's turn and many Northern powerbrokers anticipated that Jonathan would finish out Yar'Adua's term and then step aside, waiting to run on his own until 2015 when it is again the South's turn. Jonathan's decision to run violated this assumption.

Now that Jonathan has the PDP nomination, it remains to be seen how the Northern powerbrokers who have not been co-opted will organize themselves. Already some northerners have been withdrawing from the PDP, and in light of the primary outcome that number will certainly grow. Former military chief of state Muhammadu Buhari has already announced his presidential candidacy from the platform of a small party associated with reform. Never a member of the PDP, he is an austere personality known for his hostility to corruption, and is therefore hostile to conventional powerbroker interests. But he is perhaps the most popular political figure on the street. Atiku Abubakar may run as the presidential candidate of a different party, and former military chief of state Ibrahim Babangida may try to revive his candidacy also using as his platform one of the minor parties.

Nevertheless, the PDP candidate since 1999 has always been rigged into the presidency. In the aftermath of Jonathan's PDP victory, the parts of the now splintered political elite may be willing to do almost anything to prevent his presidential victory in the April 2011 elections. Popular resentment will be strong, particularly if the April 2011 elections are not credible because of the appeal to ethnic and religious identities. The danger is popular protest and violence can easily spiral out of control. Under these circumstances, there is now an even stronger premium on the credibility of the April 2011 elections.

John Campbell is the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and most recently author of "Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink." He blogs at "Africa in Transition." Want to learn more about Nigeria? Watch these short background videos.

http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/guest-articles/goodluck-jonathan-gets-the-pdp-nomination.html

This man really believes he is an expert on Nigeria.

EzeUche_:

This man really believes he is an expert on Nigeria.

whatever you like you  cancall it .    The man is correct.  Abi you are suffering  from selective amnesia did Anneih not threaten  to fish out delegates who did not vote for GEJ.  oL BOy u need to come home as often.  Your perceptions are clearly different from what is reality on ground in Nigeria.  We all know that primaries are in decided in favour of highest bidders.

Abi oo!! Every single curious mind out there is still trying to figure out exactly how the PDP managed to quiet the VENOM and NOISE almost overnight in the party. One would think this was not the same party threatening to tear themselves to pieces, for almost a year before.  It just did not occur in the expected, or normal way and the man is probably right, since this is what many out there already suspect happened as we are still speaking of Nigerian here.

This guy should STFU and go suck on Obama's ding dong

Oloshi

Whats his business with Nigeria

This man will die carrying Naija's problem on his head

Doesnt he have family?

Whatz the obsession with Nigeria?
Gosh!

I wish I could just get hold of his neck!

yeye man.

^^^^^ why are you killing yourself over another mans statement when the statement is not an affront to you? (unless, are you a pdp delegate?).

money was spent in the primaries and so what. Much ado about nothing. No primary anywhere in the world is done without some financial leverages. In the US things get done through, "Lobbying" - bills are passed; endorsements are gotten. There they run a cashless economy so much of deals are struck with much of the benefits being in business opportunities and others. We run a cash society and Ghana Must Go is the passport. Even Atiku cannot claim he did not spend.
A new thread please.

Thank you Newsmonste. I can't believe it is an American, John Campbell, that's blowing hot and cold over shenanigans at primaries.

They are the experts at that.

So expert that billions of dollars change hands, with Americans and the rest of the world none the wiser.

Experts of The more you look the less you see.