You may not know it, a lot of elite know who Fola Adeola is, particularly in the SW part of the country. He was even part of the GEJ assembled PAC team led by Danjuma.

I think he lost in the primaries for a Senatorial seat just b4 the 2007 general elections, to OBJ's daughter, Iyabo. Some publicity stunt will be good enough to introduce him to the people.  He has performed well in the private sector, particularly in the banking industry.

^^^

Kobojunkie is crazy and doesnt know what she is talking about!

9ijaMan:

You may not know it, a lot of elite know who Fola Adeola is, particularly in the SW part of the country. He was even part of the GEJ assembled PAC team led by Danjuma.

I think he lost in the primaries for a Senatorial seat just b4 the 2007 general elections, to OBJ's daughter, Iyabo. Some publicity stunt will be good enough to introduce him to the people.  He has performed well in the private sector, particularly in the banking industry.

We are talking of votes and you are talking of ELITES?? I ask again, how many people in the SW know of Fola Adeola??

e voters in diaspora you can debate it as long as you want but its all over , we just dashed GEJ another free 4 years, that gtb guy is -1, ribadu might as well not campaigne with a vp, rubbish tommorrow we will scream that pdp rigged but see the decisions we have made , its only a SS or SE person that can split johnattan vote there, MIND YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF THE ENTIRE SOUTH SOUTH (RIVERS AND DELTA )ADDED TO 99 PERCENT OF SOUTH EAST.

OBJ AND GEJ GO DEY LAFF US

Justcash:

If they had to Yorubanize it, they should have used a political heavy weight .e.g. Tinubu, Fashola etc that can pull a considerable number of supporters.  It is simply a political blunder. Fashola would have been a killer choice.

just cash you are very wrong,

first of all, lagos is juat a state out of 6 states in SW

secondly do you think the majority northerner and igbos or others in lagos will vote based on there choice or based on who majority of lagosians are voting for knowing how violent lagos can be during elections

thridly, NE will vote for a northerner whether Gej or not

NW has the stronges political might and will vote for a northerner

SS will be split into two bwcause of edo, ondo, awka ibom and cross river are not sure that GEJ will win,.,., believe it or not

SE   you know how individualistic our people are,.,.,.,. i bet GEJ will lose a state there

NC is not sure for GEJ as well

please my igbo brother, do not assume people think like you people,.,. at ther end of the day if GEJ loses there is nothing that would happen

look at it this way, when atiku contested agains obj, he lost because the whole north and SW and SE (not SS) voted for him

where was ACN IN 2003,,.,., WHERE WAS CPC IN 2003 did they invest this much agains OBJ in both 1999 and 2003,.,. answer NO


look lets not be relaxed to say GEJ has won because this might be the first election PDP will lose,.,. fact

and please never ever say jonathan has won NC AND NE because of the primaries,., because those are just delegated paid

lets just pray it is going to be BB 2011

dayokanu:

What is the number of registered voters in the SS and SE combined together? Then compare it with only the SW

WELL SAID,.,

bashr4:

e voters in diaspora you can debate it as long as you want but its all over , we just dashed GEJ another free 4 years, that gtb guy is -1, ribadu might as well not campaigne with a vp, rubbish tommorrow we will scream that pdp rigged but see the decisions we have made , its only a SS or SE person that can split johnattan vote there, MIND YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF THE ENTIRE SOUTH SOUTH (RIVERS AND DELTA )ADDED TO 99 PERCENT OF SOUTH EAST.

OBJ AND GEJ GO DEY LAFF US

^^^

Yeah, Igbos make up 99% of SW too

Yeah, the census thing was fraud and everyone is against the Igbos

What else do you have

Please, dont waste your time voting, it wont count.

These guyz shuold just join hands with BB,BB is more of a threat to PDP,thats why the GEJ proponents dont waste their energy on Nuhu.
Let them support BB so that Fola could be called upon to manage the economy and Nuhu be called to do what he knows best

bashr4:

e voters in diaspora you can debate it as long as you want but its all over , we just dashed GEJ  another free 4 years, that gtb guy is -1, ribadu might as well not campaigne with a vp, rubbish tommorrow we will scream that pdp rigged but see the decisions we have made , its only a SS or SE person that can split johnattan vote there, MIND YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF THE ENTIRE SOUTH SOUTH (RIVERS AND DELTA )ADDED TO 99 PERCENT OF SOUTH EAST.

OBJ AND GEJ GO DEY LAFF US

Can we please not give up yet? We still have at least a month to go before the final day. Granted the opposition may have failed us yet again, but I don't believe we can at least try to push to last minute, on either side before we give up. lol

Muza:

These guyz shuold just join hands with BB,BB is more of a threat to PDP,thats why the GEJ proponents dont waste their energy on Nuhu.
Let them support BB so that Fola could be called upon to manage the economy and Nuhu be called to do what he knows best

gbam,.,. ACN is just an annoying housefly in the mist of real politics

BB for sure,.,.,. [size=18pt]CPC!!!!!! POWER[/size]

Kobojunkie:

Can we please not give up yet? We still have at least a month to go before the final day. Granted the opposition may have failed us yet again, but I don't believe we can at least try to push to last minute, on either side before we give up. lol

MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.

thIs is now between gej and buhari the best acn can do now is to merge votes with buhari to pull down pdp

^^^

Are you certain your riposte there was meant for my post?

Kobojunkie:

^^^  

Are you certain your riposte there was meant for my post?

my brother sorry its for that annoying fly f stranger .

Kobojunkie:

^^^  

Are you certain your riposte there was meant for my post?

^^^

You are annoying as hell

No one likes you for real, get it to your thick skull

bashr4:

MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.

How did you arrived that the figures that 45% in ss are igbos

even rivers state are igbos upto 45%

awka ibom n ko 45% igbo

edo 45% igbo

cross river 45% igbo

balysea 45% igbo as well

ondo 45% igbo

you have to know what you are talking about,.,.,.,. igbos are not even up to 20 or 10% in SS

why do you keep making up number

fstranger3:

^^^

Yeah, Igbos make up 99% of SW too

Yeah, the census thing was fraud and everyone is against the Igbos

What else do you have

Please, dont waste your time voting, it wont count.

MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.

alj harem:

How did you arrived that the figures that 45% in ss are igbos

even rivers state are igbos upto 45%

awka ibom n ko 45% igbo

edo 45% igbo

cross river 45% igbo

balysea 45% igbo as well

ondo 45% igbo

you have to know what you are talking about,.,.,.,. igbos are not even up to 20 or 10% in SS

why do you keep making up number

i know you couldnt resist this , now good bye cus your waste of internet space,

back to topic so there no hope to bring down this evil called PDP, chai , we are finished, i think revolution is the next option

Justcash:

ACN's choice was a bad one. Ethnic politics aside, it is really a bad choice.
Politics is who gets what, when and how.
ACN should have played the political game as it is now, then implement change when they wrestle power.
FYI, I am not in doubt of the Integrity of the man that was chosen. Infact, I don't even know him. My Question is, why him? How many votes can he win out of 60 + million votes?
Well, I am quite disappointed that Tinubu and co are this politically confused. If they can't get a material that gat quality and popularity, why dint they go for any one with popularity for the time being, till they succeed in wrestling power?
Well, I care less though. I am just abit surprised.

you are right,.,., it is a very bad choice by ACN

moreover they know they will not win no matter the condition.

the treat to Jonathan right now is Buhari/Bakare CPC.

because all he needs to win is bag the NE and NW then 2 states in NC 2 state in SW then 1 state in either SS and  NE that is all he has won

Acn will win just lagos i think very bad choice,.,. i think donald duke would have been a far better choice

bashr4:



i know you couldnt resist this , now good bye cus your waste of internet space,

back to topic so there no hope to bring down this evil called PDP, chai , we are finished, i think revolution is the next option

no no no i did not mean to make you angry,.,.,. if so

i am also against PDP but all i am jsut saying is that the SS is not up to 20% igbo as you suggested,.,. that's all

bashr4:



i know you couldnt resist this , now good bye cus your waste of internet space,

back to topic[b] so there no hope to bring down this evil called PDP, chai , we are finished, i think revolution is the next option[/b]

There is hope. What about the legislative arm of government?

bashr4:


MY FRIEND SHUT UP DID I MENTION SW AM TELLING YOU IGBOS MAKE UP 45 PERCENT OF SS DONT YOU KNOW GEOGRAPHY POPULATION OF PH ALONE IS MORE THAN 6 MILLION AND THEY ARE ALL IGBO AND IJAWS AND AM TALKING OF INDIEGENS OF THE STATE OR SHOULD I TELL YOU THE MAKE UP OF DELTA

LET ME SEE HOW IT GOES SPLITING SW BETWEEN BAKARE AND TEDU OR WHATEVER AND LEAVIN[b] THE WHOLE SE AND SS FOR GEJ.[/b]

do not say that GEJ is not sure in even balysea his state not to talk of other

sad be true

i think we should just focus on electing good governors , really thats all we need after all SE and SS have survived 40 years without providing head of state . its all over by the time riggin will be added na only 100 votes oppositions go get.

Good governors fine. . . . but you definitely need good senators and representatives at the national level to curb the spending trend and also help push bills to move the nation forward.

lease be advised that the contents of this note represent my personal perspective based on my own analysis ahead of the 2011 elections. It is not being presented as fact or absolute truth, and as a consequence, I am expecting an intellectual discussion from people that disagree with me, and "NOT" an attempt to discredit or malign me, because I am only presenting my perspective.

The 2011 Presidential contest in Nigeria will be held on April 9th 2011, across the 36 States of the Federation and the Federal capital Territory. The major contenders include incumbent President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.) representing the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and former anti-corruption czar Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (Rtd.) representing the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN.) It is not my intent to disrespect other Presidential aspirants (Shekarau, Utomi, Momodu, etc,) but it is my opinion that they really do not stand any chance of winning these 2011 Presidential elections.

It is my personal projection that barring any disaster of a catastrophic magnitude for the Jonathan campaign, come May 29th 2011, it is very likely that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan will be sworn in as the President and Commander in Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces.That is a bold position to take given the fact that two of the three candidates (Buhari and Jonathan) could potentially win the election. The likely scenario is that there will be a runoff election, but even in the event of a runoff, it is more likely that President Jonathan will win the election.

This prediction is based on a careful analysis of the political dynamics leading up to the election, and I will make a detailed analysis of how I came to this conclusion. The major factors I have considered in drawing this conclusion are:

The incumbency factor
The PDP structure
Disorganized opposition
Typical politics

The Incumbency factor:

It is common knowledge that no incumbent Nigerian President, or a Presidential candidate backed by an incumbent President or Head of State has lost a Presidential election in Nigeria. In 1979, 1993, and 1999, candidates representing the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively with the backing of the military establishment at the time won the Presidential elections. In 1983 and 2003, incumbent President's Shagari and Obasanjo won the Presidential elections respectively. In 2007, the PDP candidate backed by an incumbent PDP President was sworn in as President following disputed elections. History has shown that an incumbent President is very difficult to defeat in Nigerian politics. Incumbency brings a lot of money, power and leverage to the table. These along with loyalty from political associates create conditions that allow incumbent President’s and their protégé’s win elections in Nigeria. In 2011, President Jonathan has an enormous financial war chest; a lot of political power owing to the fact that he is the sitting President who has the state’s political apparatus at his disposal; and a lot of leverage because the Presidential elections come before the Gubernatorial elections, and a lot of the Governors will be under pressure to use their political structures to deliver their states to the President, or risk losing their own elections 7 days later. The power of incumbency was a big factor in the PDP primaries, and it is likely to play a big role in the General elections.

The PDP structure:

The PDP is the only party in Nigeria with a “true” national spread. The PDP party structure by my projections will deliver the following number of votes to the President:

North East: The party structure along with the machineries of the four PDP Governors will deliver approximately 2 million votes for the President out of the available 8 million voters.

North West: The party structure along with the machineries of the six PDP Governors will deliver approximately 3 million votes for the President out of the available 18 million voters.

North Central: The party structure along with the machineries of the six PDP Governors will deliver approximately 3 million votes for the President out of the available 8 million voters. The President will make significant gains in Taraba and Benue States, and I anticipate that he will perform better than expected in the Plateau State.

South East: The party structure along with the machineries of the four PDP Governors and the APGA Governor in Anambra State, will deliver approximately 6.8 million votes for the President out of the available 7 million voters.

South South: The President will sweep approximately 8 million out of the available 8 million votes in this region.

South West: This is the most important region. I will make the bold prediction that President Jonathan will win approximately 7 million votes in the South West.

***The numbers of potential voters have been adapted from the provisional INEC numbers as reported on:

http://www.elombah.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5370%3Athis-inec-fraud-against-ndigbo-should-be-challenged&catid=49%3Ahardtalk&Itemid=75

I have projected approximately 8 million votes or approximately 23.5% of the votes in the North for the President because of the Northern Christian vote, and the Southern population in the North that will vote for the President. This number is closer to 35% of the total voting population in the North, but I am projecting 23.5% because of the concentration of these voters in specific states. Kaduna, Taraba, Nassarawa, Benue, Kogi and Kwara states will deliver a “surprising” number of votes to the President in my opinion.

I have also projected approximately 7 million votes or (46.7%) for the President in the South West because of reasons I cannot disclose in public, but suffice it to say that I am predicting that we will see something very close to the 2003 Presidential elections in the South West.

With 30 million votes or approximately 46.87% of the total votes for President Jonathan, 26 million votes or approximately 40.62% of the total votes for General Buhari, and 8 million votes or approximately 12.5% of the total votes for Mallam Ribadu, even in the event of a runoff, President Jonathan will still have enough votes to win.

One caveat to this projection is the potential surprise coming out of the South West as we approach the election.

Ultimately, I am projecting that the PDP party structure will be able to deliver enough votes to the President, which will get him elected.

Disorganized Opposition:

The opposition parties in Nigeria wasted a four-year window in my opinion, during which they could have organized better, and presented a strong challenge to the PDP in the 2011 elections. The failure of the ACN/CPC alliance to materialize, basically handed the PDP victory.

The Buhari/Tinubu ticket is one I always go back to because I strongly believe that such a ticket would have won the election in 2011. The argument that a muslim/muslim ticket will not win an election in Nigeria is invalid because it has happened before in Nigeria, and politics is a game of numbers. Potential voters in the North who would have voted for Buhari in any case, would have no problems voting for a muslim/muslim ticket. Potential voters in the South West who would have voted massively for Tinubu would not have a problem voting for a muslim/muslim ticket, as long as Tinubu was on the ticket. It is my projection that this ticket would have won approximately 54% of the total votes cast in 2011. I still maintain that on pure political strategy, this was a mistake by the opposition.

The President has been campaigning across the country, while the opposition have failed to match his campaign machinery. Some candidates have not even visited the South East and South South in the last few months. That is not a recipe for success even in a free and fair election.

Typical Politics:

One of the strategies that will come into play in 2011 is the issue of voting materials. Extended voting in some areas, short voting in some areas, insufficient voting materials in some areas, malpractice and logistical nightmares are some of the strategies that will be employed in this election in my opinion. The party that is able to maximize their gains using these strategies will position themselves better for victory.

Ultimately, with the incumbency factor, PDP structure, disorganized opposition and the ability to engage in typical politics, it is my projection that the PDP will produce the next President of Nigeria, and because of that, I am already moving on to 2015, because I don’t think there is anything anyone can do about 2011. If I am wrong, then I will laugh and move on. After all, analysts and strategists like me live to project the next election, even when we are wrong on the previous one.

Politics is a game of numbers. Follow the numbers, and you will find the winner.

Disclaimer: This is my personal projection based on my own analysis, and I have received absolutely "NO" help or support from any political party, or individuals associated with any of the campaigns.

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from nigerian eagle

Hmmm, after reading half of the thread I now understand that 9ja politics is majorly about tribe and religion. But this wont necessarily move the nation forward. vote for GEJ because you know he his capable, not because he is from SS or incumbent(unless you like his performance this far) . afterall, he was gov in bayelsa and no development can be penned to his name.

Atleast, the other parties are trying to bring intelligence to the game by bringing new names that would not have ventured into this game (politics). We have been clamoring for fresh blood into our political system, here are the opportunities to change the game from business as usual to business as it should be.

@bashr4

my guy update yourself! as of typing this benue has gone massively acn,the governor has no strenght behind him

well all analysis are correct. But the truth of the matter Nigeria political system doesn't work all these wonderful analysis, rather we still practice Godfatherism politics like with the recent move by GEJ to have all the heavy weights guy both from south and north around him has cancel every move by opposition.
Again we don't have strong opposition party at the moment. PDP are busy going round the country campaigning why the so called opposition are busy criticising them. The mistake we always make here on nl is that we always view politics from regional/tribal  point of view, which is wrong, politics all over the world is game of interest not region, tribe, race or colour. PDP understand this fact much that's why they have forgot their difference and this will give GEJ a clear cut winning across all regions.

DRANOEL:

@bashr4

my guy update yourself! as of typing this benue has gone massively acn,the governor has no strenght behind him

i didnt type it i got it from NIGERIAN EAGLE just as we are discussing it here , hate it or love thats just the way it works , tribalism and religion plus incubency plays a big role and as of now oppositions dont have what it takes to pull pdp down the much they have they have already divided it among themselves. am not a GEJ fan am just stating the obvious here.

Benue state where people were carrying Buhari placard when GEJ visited. This was why IG banned opposition poster at political campaigns locations.

Most people are overlooking the fact that PDP has reasonable political structure in the west
and with the large Igbo and SS voters in the S west, GEJ will get at least 35% of the votes in
the SW. If he holds on to his apparent lead in the NC, and the expected block votes from SE and
SS, he will win the presidential polls.
Ribadu at best will win in Lagos and few other SW states and nowhere else outside the SW. If it
is true that he has picked Adeola as his running mate, then it is just to make a reasonable showing
in the SW.
Buhari remains the only real threat to GEJ. All those rooting for a change should vote Buhari and forget
Ribadu.