The President, Goodluck Jonathan has earned a 53 percent lead in an opinion poll released yesterday, two weeks ahead of the presidential election, which claims that “53% of the respondents think that Goodluck Jonathan will win the April presidential position.” The president’s bid received a further boost according to the poll which went on to state that “most (68%) approve of Goodluck Jonathan’s performance as President.”

The poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited using survey methodologies developed by Gallup Organization (USA) revealed that, of the 19 presidential candidates, only four of the candidates are considered relevant by the respondents in the poll.

Also in the poll financed by ANAP foundation, 46% of Nigerians are aware of Ibrahim Shekarau’s (of the All Nigerians People Party) ambition while 48% are aware of Nuhu Ribadu’s (Action Congress of Nigeria) presidential bid. 73% indicated knowledge of Muhammadu Buhari’s (of the Congress for Progressive Change) and 93% confirmed knowing that Goodluck Jonathan, of the People’s Democratic Party is running for the presidency. The remaining candidates had less than 20% of Nigerians, knowing of their ambition.

Beyond the awareness range, the poll revealed that “53% of the respondents think that Goodluck Jonathan will win the April presidential election” without giving a breakdown of how the respondents reacted to the remaining three candidates.

However, the founder of ANAP foundation (a non-partisan NGO), Atedo Peterside while addressing journalists at the presentation of the poll result on Tuesday stated that “the remaining balance of 47% respondents think that either Buhari, Ribadu or Shekarau will win the presidential election while some of them (the respondents) say they do not know.”

The former banker also noted that the poll result supports the recent presidential debate which invited only the top four candidates identified in this poll, saying “in effect all the others are non-starters.”

According to Mr Peterside, “the overriding objective of the poll is to empirically establish which of the presidential candidates stands the greatest chance of receiving the people’s mandate to ascend to the nation’s highest office.” The poll further revealed that “almost all Nigerians have given at least some thought to the April elections” and that “nearly 3 out of 4 of the respondents have voted in at least one previous election.”

Despite the challenges that marred the recent voter’s registration, the poll also stated that “almost all Nigerians had registered or planned to register to vote in the elections.” It also gathered that “an extension of the period for the voter registration exercise would enable registration of more eligible voters in Nigeria” .

The poll designed in English language was translated into the major Nigerian languages (Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba and Pidgin English) and distributed across the six geo-political zones of the country to a representative random sample of Nigerians.

When asked about the spread of the respondents across the country, the CEO of NOI Polls, Ndubuisi Anyanwu, told NEXT that “1,000 people were used across the urban and rural centres”, adding that “the 1,000 mark is the set standard used by Gallup (the international polling organization)”. NOI poll’s research analyst noted that +/-3percent marginal error was used for the presidential poll and it was carried out from February 11 to February 28. The presidential election is scheduled to hold on April 9, 2011.

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5684977-146/story.csp


He is getting there.

Ol boy i am confused - Last week the poll said 75% - wetin happen -

abeg check again with GEJ - u did not get the correct doctored figures

This poll is stupid. We need data on who people will vote for not on who people think will win. A person may not support Jonathan out of principle but may think Jonathan will win because he has a well funded campaign. This poll does not capture such a person's true support. "Who do you think will win?" such a stupid question. That does not tell us anything. What will tell us something is "Who are you going to vote for?"

Lool, I thought yesterday it was 66%
Na everyday the thing dey change? I'm sure by election day it will be 0%

^^

This is a different poll @blacksta

Polls are meaningless in this country.

In fact I'd wager I guess that turnout at rallies are a better indication of voting behaviour than these polls.

What a worthless article. The writer should be ashamed of itself.

There is a poll running on Guardian newspaper website. Current result is below. We will not accept any opinion poll that somebody conducted at a corner of his bedroom. Whoever is not happy with this poll result should follow the link below and cast his vote.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_communitypolls&controller=polls&task=viewpoll&id=49%3Apresidential-race&Itemid=653


Who do you think will win the Presidential election? Polls Home
Add New Poll


Category: Political Polls Created On: 2011-03-08 20:19:06
Who do you think will win the Presidential election?

Jonathan/Sambo
Buhari/Bakare
Ribadu/Adeola
Shekarau/Oyegun

Jonathan/Sambo (18 Votes) 25.7% Buhari/Bakare (34 Votes) 48.6% Ribadu/Adeola (16 Votes) 22.9% Shekarau/Oyegun (2 Votes) 2.9%

Also Buhari is leading on all internet based polls - on NL, on Nigeria decide, etc. The polls were specific - "who will you vote for?" not "who do you think will win?" In Nigeria because votes have not been counting, many Nigerians (literates and illiterates) believe that power of incumbency can change the direction of the election to favor the sitting president. so if a person responds "yes" to the later question, it doesnt mean the person like Jonathan/PDP or that he will vote for PDP.

But things are changing across the country. Now more people than before want change just as more people than before registered to vote. We have an INEC chairman that we can trust to some extent. We have a north that is feeling cheated and therefore are determined to win back their mandate. Two things that will affect thiis year's election - (1) PDP corrupt leadership (2) North interest.

The PDP hopelessly corrupt leadership will make many southerners to Vote for Buhari. While the PDP zoning saga will add to the catchment areas of Buhari in the north. As a matter of fact, only a few PDP members in the north will vote for Jonathan - we have seen this in the course of campaign where PDP supported are saying SAI Buhari at PDP rallies in Kano and Kebbi.

DREAM ON,DREAM ON.

A MAN THAT BUILDS HIS POLITICAL PLAN ON ONLY THE NW,BUILT NO SERIOUS POLITICAL STRUCTURE IN THE WHOLE SOUTHERN NIGERIA WHILE HIS OPPONENT(GEJ/RIBADU) HAVE SUCCESSFULLY BUILT POLITICAL STRUCTURES ALL OVER NIGERIA AND PENETRATED BB'S STRONGHOLD OF NW IS EXPECTED TO WIN THIS ELECTION?

ENU OSE(na Durella say so)

VOTE A MORE SERIOUS AND MORE ENLIGHTENED PROGRESSIVE NUHU RIBADU FOR PRESIDENT AND STOP ALL THE CHILDISHNESS.

RIBADU 2011

Also Buhari is leading on all internet based polls - on NL, on Nigeria decide, etc. The polls were specific - "who will you vote for?" not "who do you think will win?" In Nigeria because votes have not been counting, many Nigerians (literates and illiterates) believe that power of incumbency can change the direction of the election to favor the sitting president. so if a person responds "yes" to the later question, it doesnt mean the person like Jonathan/PDP or that he will vote for PDP.

But things are changing across the country. Now more people than before want change just as more people than before registered to vote. We have an INEC chairman that we can trust to some extent. We have a north that is feeling cheated and therefore are determined to win back their mandate. Two things that will affect thiis year's election - (1) PDP corrupt leadership (2) North interest.

The PDP hopelessly corrupt leadership will make many southerners to Vote for Buhari. While the PDP zoning saga will add to the catchment areas of Buhari in the north. As a matter of fact, only a few PDP members in the north will vote for Jonathan - we have seen this in the course of campaign where PDP supported are saying SAI Buhari at PDP rallies in Kano and Kebbi.

you also have to remember that this website and all nigerian forums attract a certain type of nigerian, and that type isn't he majority.

if it was, all nigerians would be online talking about nigeria on forums, which isn't the reality.
we're a select sample.

Jonathan is depreciating daily.

How authentic can these polls be? I would only trust something on a platform like facebook that runs for a long time (up to a year) and is restricted to 'real' Nigerians over 18.

Anyway, the reality on ground is that PDP is more popular than all the others combined.
smh

The poll was about which candidate is likely to win. 
53% of Nigerians feel GEJ is likely to win.  That's all.

Seun:

The poll was about which candidate is likely to win.
53% of Nigerians feel GEJ is likely to win. That's all.

I can get it now. 53% feel GEJ is likely to win because of PDP's past atrocities! I am certain that if the poll is about ''who will u vote or who do u want to win'' the result will be humiliating on his part!

Nevertheless, opinion poll is yet to determine our actual winner[quote][/quote]

Wadeoye:

Also Buhari is leading on all internet based polls - on NL, on Nigeria decide, etc. The polls were specific - "who will you vote for?" not "who do you think will win?" In Nigeria because votes have not been counting, many Nigerians (literates and illiterates) believe that power of incumbency can change the direction of the election to favor the sitting president. so if a person responds "yes" to the later question, it doesnt mean the person like Jonathan/PDP or that he will vote for PDP.

The thing with internet polls is that majority of the voters reside outside Nigeria and wouldn't be participating in the elections!!

Buhari has no structure in other part of naija other than north bt he has a pedigree of an incorruptible personality that appeals more to the south than PDP lies, Tv gingles,posters and rallies. Keep wasting ur time online yl u loose ur base to door to door BB CAMPAIGN STRATEGY.

PapaBrowne:

The thing with internet polls is that majority of the voters reside outside Nigeria and wouldn't be participating in the elections!!

Indeed. More importantly, the voters who make up the bulk of the mamoth crowds at BB rallies are not included in the polls either, for obvious reasons.

I'm sure GEJ and PDP fully understand that massive rigging will not be accepted by Nigerians this time around. Note additionally that a subtantial percentage of BB supporters who show up at CPC rallies are unemployed youths, many of who cannot afford decent meals/housing, talk less fees to access the internet. These are the same or similar groups of people who have brought Mubarak and others to their knees.

Anyone who thinks the kind of revolt taking place in Libya cannot happen in Nigeria should think again. If GEJ and PDP rig this elections, even the millitary will not come to the aid of GEJ and his thieving buddies.  

When the kinds of crowd which have become symbolic of BB rallies, match to the national assembly and Aso rock, then it will dawn on these desperate politicians that, its a new day in Nigeria.  Foolish GEJ and his thieving friends may lead Nigeria to hell sai Allah ya tamaike mu.

ndu_chucks:


Indeed. More importantly, the voters who make up the bulk of the mamoth crowds at BB rallies are not included in the polls either, for obvious reasons.

I'm sure GEJ and PDP fully understand that massive rigging will not be accepted by Nigerians this time around. Note additionally that a subtantial percentage of BB supporters who show up at CPC rallies are unemployed youths, many of who cannot afford decent meals/housing, talk less fees to access the internet. These are the same or similar groups of people who have brought Mubarak and others to their knees.

Anyone who thinks the kind of revolt taking place in Libya cannot happen in Nigeria should think again. If GEJ and PDP rig this elections, even the millitary will not come to the aid of GEJ and his thieving buddies.  

When the kinds of crowd which have become symbolic of BB rallies, match to the national assembly and Aso rock, then it will dawn on these desperate politicians that, its a new day in Nigeria.  Foolish GEJ and his thieving friends may lead Nigeria to hell sai Allah ya tamaike mu.

Tell them.

ndu_chucks:


Indeed. More importantly, the voters who make up the bulk of the mamoth crowds at BB rallies are not included in the polls either, for obvious reasons.

I'm sure GEJ and PDP fully understand that massive rigging will not be accepted by Nigerians this time around. Note additionally that a subtantial percentage of BB supporters who show up at CPC rallies are unemployed youths, many of who cannot afford decent meals/housing, talk less fees to access the internet. These are the same or similar groups of people who have brought Mubarak and others to their knees.

Anyone who thinks the kind of revolt taking place in Libya cannot happen in Nigeria should think again. If GEJ and PDP rig this elections, even the millitary will not come to the aid of GEJ and his thieving buddies.  

When the kinds of crowd which have become symbolic of BB rallies, match to the national assembly and Aso rock, then it will dawn on these desperate politicians that, its a new day in Nigeria.  Foolish GEJ and his thieving friends may lead Nigeria to hell sai Allah ya tamaike mu.

But all the scenario analysis carried out by even BB supporters suggest that Buhari is not likely win the popular vote given his inability to garner enough non-northern votes! So the big question then is, when Buhari loses, how do we prevent these jobless youths you've talked about from going on rampage and killing Christians?? Don't you think this is a national security issue that should be discussed in depth??

PapaBrowne:

But all the scenario analysis carried out by even BB supporters suggest that Buhari is not likely win the popular vote given his inability to garner enough non-northern votes! So the big question then is, when Buhari loses, how do we prevent these jobless youths you've talked about from going on rampage and killing Christians?? Don't you think this is a national security issue that should be discussed in depth??

First of all, I disagree with the bolded statement above - only time will tell which analysis is correct. I agree with you that we have a potential national security issue that should indeed be discussed in depth. If GEJ wins in a free and fair election, I don't see any reason to worry - I do not believe GEJ can win under this scenario.

In my humble opinion, if GEJ is declared the outright winner of this election, chaos and possible war may break out because of the reaction from dissatisfied youths. I hope I am wrong. The best outcome would be one that neccesitates a runoff between GEJ and Buhari - this runoff could then become our model for the future.

They could have done a poll to determine who people will vote for, but the organization behind it is committed to not being involved in politics.  It was founded by the former finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iyeala.

Seun:

They could have done a poll to determine who people will vote for, but the organization behind it is committed to not being involved in politics. It was founded by the former finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iyeala.

Thanks for reiterating the above point. I think their finding that 53% of Nigerians believe that GEJ is likely to win the election is very plausible and probably quite accurate. I personally believe that more than 53% of us expect the PDP to rig as usual, hence the concomitant expectation of GEJ's success at the election.