Covid-19: A Second National Lockdown is Needless!
By
Abdullahi D Mohammed






The second wave/spike of Covid-19 exacerbated by winter had sent panic across Europe and other parts of the world. Governments are taking precautionary steps to stem the rising tide of the pandemic with a variety of drastic measures which includes total or, partial lockdowns, mandatory wearing of mask and other safety protocol. This is coming amidst vaccinations especially in the US and other affected countries.

The first wave of the pandemic which, seemingly caught governments across the world unawares, had dealt a fatal blow on livelihood, global economy and intergroup relations and interactions. The social and economic consequences of the pandemic earlier in the year was nothing but catastrophic. It partially shut down the global economy -- many lost their jobs and businesses, therefore relying on Government's
interventions or relief package.

With the successful trials of and production of vaccines by major pharmaceutical companies, the world, had found reasons to heave a sigh of relief, though, temporarily. The vaccines had so far been tested and administered on key US government officials, which includes Mike Pence, the Vice President.
As predicted, usually, developing economies, especially Africa would face a huge task accessing the vaccines at its formative stages due partially to global hegemonic tendencies and economic power play.

Caught up in the web, what do these developing nations do in face of uncertainty in accessing the vaccines? African Governments should come clean, and transparently engage medical personel and seek advice on the resurgence and prevalence of the spread of Covid-19. The spread of the virus, especially in Africa has been nothing but exaggerated. While admitting to its existence, and prevalence, the rate of the spread has been one blown out of proportion, which led to major lockdown, that affected and impoverished an already overstreched, and struggling economy.
According to data from the NCDC, total number of confirmed cases is put at 77,933, with 67,784 discharged, the total number of deaths is 1,218.

The PTF, which is taskforce set up by government, on whose advice and recommendations government shut the Country between April and July, is at it again. They are hinting on a possible lockdown should the numbers goes up again.
Realistically, both states and Federal authorities should focus on ways to prevent the spread rather than opting for a major lockdown. The body language of most state governments had indicated the likelihood of an impending lockdown. Last week, the Kaduna state governor warned of a possible lockdown, should number of case continue to rise, and went further to shutdown Schools, Clubs and Bars. His Lagos State counterpart had similarly hinted at same measures and placed restrictions on some social activities.

The social and economic implication of a possible second lockdown are enormous, and, could potentially have a devastating effect on the fragile economy. Nigeria at the moment is in the middle of a recession, the second a little under 3 years. Most businesses are struggling amidst the economic recession and the rising cost of materials. Enduring another lockdown would swiftly send them out of the business, a near, or total collapses. Nigeria must look within and establish an intricate mechanism, or develop an elaborate framework that could salvage the situation, rather than shutting the country. The idea of a national shutdown is counterproductive, it bequeath nothing but hardship.

Another consequence of second national lockdown would adversely affect access to education. Most schools, especially in Northern Nigeria were shut down as a result of deteriorating security, and constant threats of terrorist. Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna and Kano, were among states that issued the directive on the closure of schools. Although, the thinking of most residents in Kaduna and Kano states, the closure was as a result of the spike in Covid-19. As it were, the threat to education would be two-fold -- fear of attacks, and Covid.

Last week's abductions of schoolboys at the Government Science Secondary School Kankara, in Katsina State had a disruptive effects on the psyche of both students and parents in the region, as the fear of attacks and abductions remains prevalent in their minds.
And, it would take a far longer time and serious counselling to reset their psyche, and restore them to normalcy. The trauma and shock could leave them perpetually in the state of fear, to the point of despising school, or education.
Now, shutting schools as a result of lockdown could potentially damage whatever remains of their strong will in the pursuit of education. Government, especially of states should rethink the knotty idea of a second lockdown and even resist, the idea should the federal government mulls its.

The minister of health hinted last week of a possible delivery to Nigeria, in January, the vaccine. Therefore, the most logical thing is -- get more testing centers, keep records of cases, and infected persons, if possible, isolate them until the delivery of the vaccine has been concluded. Then the second phase should be distribution and administering the vaccine on the infected persons, the idea of a second national lockdown should be discountenanced .

The severity and potency of the pandemic in Africa has been a subject of scientific discourse as, the death rate is surprisingly low. For instance, South Africa, which has the highest infection rate in the continent, potentially higher than some European countries has a significantly low death rate than some worst-hit countries.
Africa accounts for 17% of the global population, but has approximately 3% of reported deaths from the pandemic. Medics and infectious disease experts harped on the growing hypothesis of Cross-Immunity -- of persons (Africans) having some kind of immunity to Covid-19 as very plausible. The demographics in the continent played a significant role, but, on the whole, African Governments should not be too complacent.

Major European countries and the US had imposed a stringent national lockdown which, limits gatherings in Bars, Clubs and other spots in the wake of rising number of cases. These steps were taken well ahead of Christmas and New year celebrations which is usually accompanied with fanfare and large gatherings. We must however, not continue to be copycat, we need to develop an internal mechanism of confronting challenges which are more peculiar to us as a continent, and country.
The winter in Europe is partly responsible for the spike. The breezy and hazy harmattan in Nigeria usually comes with cold, cattarh and cough. These should not be mistaken for reasons for any spike. During harmattan, without Covid-19, people mostly wear masks, sunglasses and other protective gears.
Instead of a second major lockdown, Nigerian Government should aggressively engage in awareness campaign, or reenact the preventive protocol of the NCDC -- mandatory wearing of mask, social distancing at public or crowded places, and regular washing of hands.
With Christmas around the corner, clerics should take center stage in the campaign both on and off the pulpit. Major events in the yuletide should highly be regulated. Until it becomes too necessary, trips should as well be put on hold.
Government should work with community and religious leaders to ensure strict compliance rather than a lockdown which usually has it downside and devastating effect -- killing the economy, and probably killing individuals who couldn't access hospitals when ill.

Thankfully, schools are on break, but, on resumption, the safest way to go is enforce a stringent no- mask, no entry policy for students. Each student must be made to carry his/her hand sanitizers, this wouldn't be too difficult to adopt, at least, it seems a fair deal than a national lockdown.
The first national lockdown was nothing but traumatic, as individuals and businesses continue to count loses, and, was in part responsible for the economic recession. Even the number of deaths, especially amongst the aged as witnessed in Kano and other states were attributed to the lockdown as those with underlying health challenges were hitherto forced to stay home which further aggravated their condition.

Palliatives, provided by both federal and state governments, as well as corporate bodies never reached the targeted persons. In the aftermath of the #EndSARS, the looting of numerous warehouses across the country had proven yet again how insensitive our leaders are. The discovery of large amount of food items meant for distribution to cushion the effect of the pandemic signifies one thing -- should there be a second lockdown, same scenario would play out, no palliatives, no support. Since government is averse to giving out relief aid, most citizens would be pleased to move about their daily and legitimate businesses, rather than being shutdown. Consciously, the conditions to warrant a second lockdown are largely non-existent. In the US for instance, stimulus Covid-19 package were distributed to every American citizen during the first wave, because, they knew, by shutting the economy, businesses were affected, and thousands filed for unemployment. As a working government with seamless flow of administrative structures, every citizen has got his share of the stimulus package. At the moment, the US Congress is working to pass a $900 Billion economic relief package, which will be distributed to its citizens in a bid to reduce the effect of the pandemic.

Nigeria had, neither provided such stimulus package directly to individual's bank account, nor, allow relief materials (food and non food items) reach those in desperate conditions. Curiously, the government is angling for a second national, and state lockdowns. The most honorable thing President Buhari's advisers should do is, counsel him to resist the temptation of imposing on innocent Nigeria another needless lockdown. Clearly, as it were, Nigeria cannot afford or bare its catastrophic consequences. We must not shut our country because Europe did, the templates are different, the scenario and complexities of Nigeria's reality are equally not same. Government as a matter of policy should save the citizens another agony of lockdowns, rather -- focus on critical areas of keeping the economy running, citizens safe and secured, as we exit one of the most dangerous year, in the history of humanity.

Abdullahi D Mohammed is with the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the Ahmadu Bello University-Zaria
He writes from Kano
abdullahkidnyce@gmail.com