ANALYSIS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR 2011

1.0 NOTABLE ASSUMPTIONS
1. The Peoples’ votes would count
2. The elections would be free and fair
3. INEC would be truly independent and not subject to any form of compromise
4. The top opposition parties would work out a consensus agreement to wrestle the ruling party
5. It is going to be a two-horse race between two lead contenders namely: President Good-luck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) of the PDP and General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB) of the CPC
6. There would be an estimated 100 percent turn-out in each of the geo-political zones
7. All cast votes would be valid
8. The two lead contenders are going to enjoy a combined votes of 90 percent of total votes cast for each geo-political zone
9. Other contenders would among themselves record a combined total votes of 5 and 10 percent for the northern and southern zones respectively



2.0 PRESENTATION OF DATA

Table I: Schedule of registered Voters for the 2011 general election by Geo-Political Distribution;

S/N GEO-POL. ZONE NO. OF STATES NO. OF REG. VOTERS PERCENTAGE
1. North-West 7 18,900,543 27.89
2. North-Central 7 8,561,692 12.63
3. North-East 6 10,038,119 14.81
4. South-West 6 14,298,356 21.10
5. South-South 6 8,937,057 3.19
6 South-East 5 7,028,560 10.37
Total 37 67,764,327 100

Source: http://www.inecnigeria.org/downloads/?did=36




3.0 ANALYSIS OF DATA

Table II: Schedule of Votes Allocation by percentage

S/N ZONE CANDIDATES FACTORS
GEJ GMB OTHERS
1. North-West 5 % 90% 5% Zoning, Religion & Credibility
2. North-Central 30% 65% 5% Zoning, Religion & Credibility
3. North-East 25% 70% 5% Zoning, & Credibility
4. South-West 45% 45% 10% Credibility & Sentiments
5. South-South 85% 5% 10% Ethnicity, Religion & Marginalization
6. South-East 70% 20% 10% Ethnicity & Religion & Marginalization




Table III: Schedule of Votes allocation by Numbers

S/N ZONE CANDIDATES Total
GEJ GMB OTHERS
1. North-West 945,027 17,010,489 945,027 18,900.543
2. North-Central 2,568,508 5,565,100 428,085 8,561,692
3. North-East 2,509,530 7,026,683 501,906 10,038,119
4. South-West 6,434,260 6,434,260 1,429,836 14,298,356
5. South-South 7,596,498 446,853 893,706 8,937,057
6. South-East 4,919,992 1,405,712 702,856 7,028,560
Total Nation-wide 24,973,815 37,889,097 4,901,415 67,764,327



Table IV: Schedule of Votes Allocation by No. of States

S/N ZONE CANDIDATES Total
GEJ GMB OTHERS
1. North-West 0 7 0 7
2. North-Central 2 5 0 7
3. North-East 2 4 0 6
4. South-West 3 3 0 6
5. South-South 5 1 0 6
6. South-East 4 1 0 5
Total Nation-wide 16 21 0 37


Table V: Ranking Schedule
S/N CANDIDATES VOTES EARNED PERCENT-AGE NO. OF STATES PERCENT-AGE RANK
1. Good-luck E. Jonathan 24,973,815 36.85 16 43.24 SECOND
2. Gen. M. Buhari 37,889,097 55.91 21 56.76 FIRST
3. Others 4,901,415 7.23 0 0
Total 67,764,327 100 37 1100



6.0 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Number of Votes

Good-Luck Jonathan of the PDP scored total votes of 24.97 Million or 36.85 percent of total votes cast while General Muhammadu Buhari rtd. of the CPC scored total votes of 37.89 Million which represent 55.91 percent of total votes cast.


Number of States
Good-Luck Jonathan of the PDP has by virtue of earning a total of 24.97 million votes won a total of 19 states which translates to an estimated 43.24 percent of all the states. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.) of the CPC with total votes of 37.89 million has won 21 states which translate to 56.76 percent of total states.

7.0 CONCLUSION
General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.) of the CPC though in pole position and haven polled 55.91 percent of total votes and by implication 56.76 percent of all the states falls short of meeting the constitutional requirement of two-thirds of the total number of states required to be declared winner of the presidential election. Therefore, a re-run election would be conducted within the next 7 days.

AFTER ANOTHER BOUT, WE ARE MOST LIKELY TO GET THE SAME RESULTS.

THEN, THE FINAL BOUT WOULD BE DECIDED ON THE BASIS OF SIMPLE MAJORITY AFTER WHICH….

………, GEN. MUHAMMADU BUHARI (RTD.) WOULD EMERGE AS PRESIDENT AND COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA.

Would be nice. Nigeria has had enough of corruption

Yusufi:

[s]6. There would be an estimated 100 percent turn-out in each of the geo-political zones[/s]

Na here your failure begin. Only rigged elections record 100 percent turn-out.

Dream on,dream on


Buhari 45% of SW when most people in the SW dont even know if the man or his party is contesting

Dont worry,it is 3days to election,still no mention of his party in any of the SW states,still you allote 45%!!

All liars will go to hell!!

Definitely,the whole BB thing is a fraud and bubble!!

Even ondo,that is not ACN controlled will never go BUHARI let alone the rest of the SW!!


I will continue to expose you all,if you like open a million thread,I will tell d whole world and ur principals the naked truth!!

Even an expatriate I discussed with today wondered if buhari is really in this election when he left him out when mentioning the serious contenders!

He wont get up to 10% of the SW even if the election is done today!

Since most of u are in siberia,i wont divulge the latest strategies the Ribadu is evn deploying to further consolidates its popularity in the SW,but wen u here serious campaign effort yielding verifiable results,ur conviction is further reassured.

SW is a surebanker for RIBADU!!


VOTE RIBADU.HE IS YOUNG AND CAPABLE!

[size=24pt]Vote Buhari-Bakare 2011[/size] for the future of our children

The future of my kids in the hand of a 70year oldman

An oldman who has been in retirement for the past 25years?

An oldman that cannot even open a facebook account or effectively deploy a 21st century campaign technology to an educated sophisticated southern Nigeria?

Definitely not MY CHILDREN,I REJECT IT IN JESUS NAME(Amen)

Buhari belongs to the past while our Ribadu belongs to the future!!

My children dont even know Buhari is contesting,all they and their friends know is Ribadu/gej!!

Your children could do well using analogue when the world has moved on to 4G tech.

Abeg serious people,pls vote RIBADU 2011

@TINUBU4LIV, keep living in the world of dream that people in the SW don't know Buhari is contesting. Are you in Niegria?

Buhari was in Ibadan and he pulled more crowd than even ACN despite the threat by Akala that he would not allow the rally to hold. Akala himself has said that the election is between Buhari and Jonathan - no other contestants. You want to tell me that South West people know Ribadu more than Buahri - you will be shocked.

I can tell, Buhari will likely win in Oyo state, Ogun state, and sure to get 30% of Lagos at least.

I must also tell you here that turn out will be low in most SW states apart from Lagos and Ogun.

The shocker will be the turnout in the north which is expected to be close 90%. If elections are not rigged, also expect low voters turnout in SE.

I can't still see when GEJ will come close to Buhari in the election - PDP know they are in trouble already