Nine more months to go and the year is over, 2022 is a political year while the end of 2020 is the year of alignment..

Tinubu have made the first move in APC, knowing fully well that there are strong oppositions to his candidacy in APC.

Buni, Bagudu and Badaru (BBB) are now what I call the president's mouth, ear and eyes , those who understand Nigeria politics know that these are Buhari boys.. These guys somehow believe that PDP is presenting a Northern therefore APC should counter with a Northerner too.
Tinubu therefore need to appease these men and allay their fears to secure the ticket.


Atiku on the other hand continues to play the waiting game, less visible but very strong presence on the political hemisphere and maintains his social media influence on his nationwide structure. There is not much opposition to the candidacy of Atiku in PDP, the deal will be formalize, a one term presidency for the North ( to equal South and North tenure by 16:16 years) and power to the SE afterwards whether Atiku will respect the deal is unknown..


The chances of these two men will become one of the greatest gamble in Nigeria politics.. It would have been a walk over for Atiku been a Northerner and have the backing of the majority of the south but some heavyweight especially Gandjue and Masari will do everything to protect themselves and their interest. Others like Zulum, Simon lalong will provide support while the opinion of men like El Rufai , Abubakar Sani Bello and yahaya Bello remains divided.


Nevertheless the wind of Atiku might come hard, this will be his greatest opportunity to realise his ambition, also this will be the greatest chance for the North East to lead this nation and finally his deal with SE and SS boasts his chances..

Another factor that might work is who Tinubu sees as VP , the truth remains that he will consider a Northern Muslim just like his mentor MKO, for me personally it will be the best gamble as I don't see any Christian Northerner that will gain the confidence of the Muslim conservative ahead of Atiku.

Buahri's factor , presidential money and the ruling party advantage also stands for Tinubu , the use of security forces and paid non state agents will be handy, APC used this tactics so well in 2019, Kano, Lagos and even Ekiti comes to mind.


But APC 's failure is also a time bomb waiting to explode, many were surprised that in 2019, PDP gained many states and fought hard in the North, Kaduna, Jos , Kano , Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo, Ondo, Abuja and the rest were an eye opener for the ruling party , since then things have gotten worse, rated most poor, most unemployed and most violence earned us a failed state, this is a big problem for the ruling party.


Now to Vote regionally from my opinion

NE - likely PDP as this will be their greatest chance but APC will gain some vote if the Muslim / Muslim VP ticket is from there.

SW - likely APC but expect some Christians in the region to revolt

SE - possibly PDP as majority are anti APC

NC - likely APC as many minority Muslims(non Hausa /Fulani) will lean to Tinubu who is a minority mulism

SS- possibly PDP as all in these region is PDP

NW- likely PDP, here the battle will be tough but at the end it will lean to PDP as this region harbours the most conservative Muslims who believe the north leads and others should follow, they have been voting a Northern candidate since 1999.


Watch men like El Rufai, Buni , Bagudu , Badaru and Abubakar Sani Bello.....


While Gandjue faces prosecution and have many enemies for removal of the Emir, he is also not in good term with El Rufai who is the friend of the former Emir and Kwankwanso , 2019 might be a pay back..

Comparing apples with oranges.
Tinubu won't even be on the ballot.

Gandollaar:
Comparing apples with oranges.

Tinubu won't even be on the ballot.

Think he will be, no one in the South can match is influence in APC right now unless BBB wins and move ticket to the north.. Their plan is to front a Northerner and use a VP from the SE , Umahi precisely.. They are also making every effort for more SE governors to defect to APC.. Selfish of them if I may say.