There are indications that the power sector may have
experienced three system collapses in five months
(between January and May, 2021), against two
recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.

Outages/grid collapses occur when there are system
disturbances along the transmission grid. Such
disturbances could include a massive drop of load
from a sub-station that would cause the grid to
become unstable.

Accordingly, the grid collapses recorded within the
period occurred on February 17, March 15 and May
12, 2021. This is against the corresponding year’s
system collapses which occurred on January 16 and
April 29, 2020 respectively.

However, investigation carried out by Energy
Vanguard, indicated that the country may not have
seen the end to power sector system collapses as
many problems, including aging transmission
network, obsolete substation equipment persist.

130 system collapses in eight years and
counting
Energy Vanguard also gathered that the country’s
power sector (from 2013 when the electricity
privatisation process was completed) has witnessed
about 130 grid collapses; a challenge which experts
and operators said would linger for a long time.

However, a breakdown of the development shows that
the sector recorded a total of 45 partial grid collapses
and 82 total collapses between 2013 and 2020.

The nation witnessed the highest system collapse in
2016 and the least in 2020.

However, three cases of system failure have taken
place between February and May, 2021.

The above development shows that an average of 9
grid failures occurred in Nigeria, annually.

However, following the May 12, 2021 incidence, TCN
had revealed that it is waiting for the National
Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, to approve
the 260megawatts, MW, spinning reserve it recently
procured, being part of 400MW reserve needed to
contain the grid’s frequent failures.

Experts envisage more collapses,
except….
Commenting on the development, Professor Wumi
Iledare, Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, GNPC,
Professor and Chair in Petroleum Economics and
Management, Institute for Oil and Gas Studies, Cape
Coast, Ghana, said adequate measures have not been
put in place to prevent collapses in the country’s
power sector.

According to him: “I don’t see what Nigeria is doing to
prevent system collapse. The sector is too overtly
centralised.

“The major issue affecting the transmission network is
the ineffective governance and regulatory framework
of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission
(NERC). Second issue is lack of understanding of the
basic electricity market structure.

“The allocated captive market to Transmission
Company of Nigeria, TCN and Distribution Company of
Nigeria, DISCOs are too big to manage effectively.

“Finally, the over-centralisation, the transmission
network, with a one keep all, for a heterogeneous
market such as Nigeria, makes the system
operationally ineffective, economically inefficient and
inequitable to the society.

“The way out is decentralisation of the market control
and regulation. Secondly regionalism of the market
with a more homogeneous market elements. Finally
invest in energy infrastructure for better energy
planning.”

He lamented that the power sector if flooded with
“Epileptic power supply, transmission losses,
vandalism of pipelines, DISCOs inefficiency will limit
the potential for economic growth.

“Energy consumption grows an economy faster than
energy production, especially, if the latter is mostly for
export. Governance and pricing framework is key
along the value chain.

“Another challenge is the market structure and
conduct. The electric power sector with respect to
power generation is more of oligopolistic in structure
but the distribution is more of hybrid market structure
tending towards a captive monopoly.

“Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of
understanding of this structure in terms of
performance. Here lies then the issue that needs to be
resolved! The power of Nigeria Electricity Regulatory
Commission (NERC) is frequently undermined by
economic populism of the National Assembly.”

He noted that it will be a positive development for
NERC to be operating under the Ministry of Science
and Technology instead of the Presidency.

Also, a source from PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PwC),
noted that the issue around system collapse has to do
with TCN’s lack of wheeling capacity, and there is
need to expand transmission lines, procure more
spinning reserves for generating power stations and
refusal to fast-track construction of digital control
centers

He said, “At this period TCN should have minimal
GENCO capacity required to always deploy available
electricity at short notice when other system collapses.

The system would serve as a protection schemes for
critical transmission-distribution interfaces.

“There is need for available capacity that can be
deployed anytime hiccup occurs within the
transmission system.

“In actual fact, collapses will occur but how you deal
with it is what is of utmost importance. TCN often
doesn’t have sufficient funds to procure this
equipment or pay GENCOs that could also have this
spinning reserve as a backup in case of collapse.

“Most government policy statements and initiatives
are always not well thought out, and even when
initiated they are often implemented haphazardly.

“One of such cases is the structure of the energy
market, power deal with Siemens Energy Nigeria to
deliver 25,000MW by the end of 2025 and to fix the
archaic transmission and distribution infrastructure in
the sector.”

This project signed in July 2019, by Presidential Power
Initiative with the German firm, is being truncated
with policy flip-flops.

The PwC Power Partner, however, recommended that
for Nigeria to avoid another power collapse, the TCN
must develop a sustainable remediation plan. This
must follow a process and not the usual fire brigade
approach.

He also urged the Federal Government to collaborate
with the Discos and GENCOs when formulating policies
that would help improve performance in the sector.

Nigeria needs 400 MW of spinning
reserve to be stable —GENCOs
In a report – Assessing the Challenges in Operating a
GENCO, Given Current Market Consideration –
obtained by Energy Vanguard, the GENCOs noted that
the actual reasons which trigger the incessant grid
collapse are unknown and can only be established if a
thorough technical investigation is conducted and
made public to ascertain if it was human error,
negligence or other factors.

According to the report, “Undoubtedly, the
transmission network constitutes the vital channels of
the entire power value chain.

“It goes without saying that the ‘growth of the power
sector is contingent to development of a robust and a
non-collapsible transmission network’.”

“The current transmission network is characterised by
factors such as aging network, obsolete substation
equipment, overloading of certain transmission
corridors, poor operations and maintenance etc. which
clearly portends a network plagued with huge
infrastructural challenges.”

“Such disturbances could include a massive drop of
load from a sub-station that would cause the grid to
become unstable.

“This could be solved in most cases with adequate
spinning reserve in place. Experts have advised that
the Nigerian grid requires up to 400 MW of spinning
reserve to be stable.

“The reality is, there is no spinning reserve procured
currently in the market notwithstanding TCN’s
constant reminders to the regulator (NERC) to procure
about 260MW which though below the estimated
figure, could be a starting point.

“One of the main causes of grid instability is
frequency roaming engendered by either load rejection
or uninstructed generation/overload.

“While the solution is compulsory for all Gencos, i.e.
operating on “Free Governor Mode (FGM) in
accordance with the cation” to enable effective control
of the frequency accordingly, the second Stage solution
is calling up of “Spinning Reserve” from the
incentivized providers.”

Regulatory lacuna
The report further fingers the regulatory arm of the
power sector on negligence to its duty, saying “The
non-responsiveness of the regulator to this critical
issue is worth exploring by Nigerians given the
technical, commercial and economic effects of the
frequent grid collapses in a regulated market such as
the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

“Most of these service interruptions and high
frequency allegations are attributed by TCN to the
inability of DISCOs to take load in that they cause
system imbalance which hurt power generators/
producers to a grave extent, by depriving them of the
ability to sell the output of their plants.

“From Gencos point of view, investing to increase the
capacity of their power plants in the Nigerian
Electricity Market (NEM), translates to more risks in
terms of machine breakdown, maintenance and repair
costs.”
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/06/national-grid-collapses-thrice-in-5-months-130-times-in-8-yrs-investigation/

That's because there isn't enough cash to fix it.

Modified

The Nigerian power sector continues to grapple with the age-long problems that have plagued the sector even before the privatisation exercise in 2013. Insufficient gas supply, weak transmission infrastrusture, absence of cost-reflective tariffs and poor metering system have remained largely unresolved. On the demand side, the final consumers have continued illegal actions of meter bypass and in many cases have accumulated unpaid bills.

Granted, among the uncaptured consumers, there are those without access to the national power grid, particularly in rural areas, however, the wide disparity between registered consumers and estimated number of households today suggests that power theft in Nigeria is not on a small scale, and this could be contributing meaningfully to the liquidity issues gripping the power sector value chain.


Tackling the liquidity constraints of the power sector remains at the forefront. Among suggestions to achieve this is structuring the activities in power sector as financial products for capital market transactions in a bid to facilitate the required liquidity, deepen private participation in the sector and enhance transparency in the entire value chain of electricity generation

.

SORCED

Federal government and monopoly.

Only the gas flared in this country alone, if properly harnessed can supply the energy need of the whole of west Africa.

It's not as if the energy demand in Africa is high when compared the other regions of the world.

I remember before states like Bayelsa was connected to the National grid. There was constant FREE electricity in the capital for years.

Yesterday someone was telling me he pays four thousand naira bill for a one bedroom flat, for a low voltage epileptic power supply.

I can't remember the last time I saw Nepa light I'm my house.. Didn't even realise there hadn't been light for days until I saw ppl carrying fones and chargers around

like one of my lecturer would say, Nigeria can never have steady electricity. Funny enough he said that 11 years ago.