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Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 6:07am On Aug 17, 2021 |
Despite the $83 billion and two decades the US spent equipping and training the Afghan army, in many provinces the military appeared to evaporate in the face of Taliban insurgents. With more than 300,000 personnel and equipment that was more advanced than the Taliban arsenal, Afghan army forces were formidable – on paper. In reality, they had been plagued by corruption, payoffs, poor leadership, lack of training and plummeting morale for years. Desertions were common and US government inspectors had long warned that the situation was unsustainable. The government outpost in Imam Sahib, a district of Kunduz province, held out for two months against the Taliban. But resources and supply runs soon dwindled. “In the last days, there was no food, no water and no weapons,” trooper Taj Mohammad, 38, told the Wall Street Journal. The remaining troops eventually fled for the provincial capital, which itself collapsed weeks later. Troops on the front line in Afghanistan's second-largest city Kandahar were given "one cardboard box full of slimy potatoes" for an entire police unit’s daily rations last week, the New York Times reported. Kandahar police said before the city fell they hadn’t been paid in six to nine months, according to the Washington Post, making Taliban offers more tempting. Taliban insurgents mixed threats and bribery, along with propaganda and psychological warfare, as they took city after city – some with barely a shot fired – eventually capturing the capital. Beginning last year, Taliban leaders started offering desperate troops money in exchange for weapons, according to the Washington Post, in meetings and deals dubbed "ceasefires" by Afghan officials. "Over the next year and a half, the meetings advanced to the district level and then rapidly on to provincial capitals, culminating in a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces," the Post wrote. And yet as foreign troops began their final withdrawal based on a Trump administration deadline set for May 1, Washington and Kabul were confident the Afghan military would put up a fight against the Taliban. Afghan forces did put up strong resistance in some areas such as Lashkar Gah in the south, but they were facing the Taliban without US air strikes or military support. Confronted with smaller but highly motivated groups of Taliban insurgents, many soldiers and even entire units simply deserted or surrendered, leaving the Islamists to capture city after city. Meanwhile, US intelligence assessments were woefully optimistic. The Taliban could take over Kabul within 90 days, US officials estimated last week. Some 72 hours later, Kabul had fallen. Even the Taliban were reportedly surprised at how quickly they were able to take control of some provinces. How did the US fuel a Taliban victory? For some, Afghanistan's collapse was 20 years in the making, as mistake after mistake was made in the Western nation-building project. But the final nail in the coffin of the Afghan government came last year when former US president Donald Trump signed a deal with the insurgents to withdraw US troops by May 1. For the Taliban, it was a sign that their victory was imminent after nearly two decades of war. For Afghans, it was a betrayal and meant their abandonment by the international community. The Taliban continued to attack government forces but started to combine those with the targeted killings of journalists and rights activists, heightening the environment of fear. They also pushed a narrative of inevitable Taliban victory in their propaganda and psychological operations. Soldiers and local officials were reportedly bombarded with text messages in some areas, urging them to surrender or cooperate with the Taliban to avoid a worse fate. Many were offered safe passage if they left their weapons and did not put up a fight, while others were reached through tribal and village elders. What happened to the anti-Taliban warlords? With Afghan forces unable to hold off the Taliban advances, many of Afghanistan's notorious warlords rallied their militias and promised to fight the Taliban if they attacked their cities. But with confidence plunging in the ability of Afghanistan's government to survive, the writing was also on the wall for the warlords. Their cities fell without a fight. Longtime warlord Ismail Khan, known as the "Lion of Herat" and seen as his city's last hope, was captured by the Taliban as Herat fell. Uzbek commander and former vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum as well as fellow warlord Atta Mohammad Noor briefly joined the battle for Mazar-i-Sharif before fleeing into Uzbekistan as their militias abandoned their humvees, weapons and even their uniforms. What was the Taliban's strategy? The Taliban had been quietly pursuing what has been called an "outside-in" strategy, slowly tightening their grip on provincial rural areas before moving in to take over the regional capitals. The insurgents also reportedly began negotiating deals and surrender arrangements – with everyone from individual soldiers and low-level government officials to provincial governors and government ministers – long before the launch of their final blitz in May. The strategies proved immensely effective. Images from the Taliban's final march to Kabul were not of bloody battles but of Taliban and government officials sitting comfortably as they formalised the handover of cities and provinces that were taken largely without a fight. By Sunday, president Ashraf Ghani had fled the country, reportedly to Tajikistan, bringing a stunning end to the 20-year international campaign to transform Afghanistan into a modern state with a central government whose power extended into the diverse provinces across the country. As a tense calm fell across Kabul, with many people hiding in their homes in accordance with Taliban orders, fears of a return to the brutal rule the Taliban imposed when it was last in power led others to throng the roads leading to Hamid Karzai international airport, where chaotic scenes unfolded as both Afghans and foreigners made a last mad dash to escape. source france24 |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by FirstCounsel(m): 6:17am On Aug 17, 2021 |
Hmmm very insightful |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by superCleanworks(m): 6:23am On Aug 17, 2021 |
First we see it on tv. Next we see it in Nigeria That is how bokoharam happened too Suicide bombings was something we could only see on CNN. Few years later, it came to Nigeria. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 6:23am On Aug 17, 2021 |
it's indeed insightful I see many similarities with Nigeria, especially in the area of corruption within the military. America knew it was a lost cause because of the cancerous corruption within the Afghan government. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by BigRocky: 6:30am On Aug 17, 2021 |
Majority of aghanistans support the fight and course of the Taliban.. They have what they wanted. The USA should evacuate her troops and let the Taliban imposed thier extremist rule. The people hv always wanted it but USA failed to realize this quickly. 2 Likes |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 6:46am On Aug 17, 2021 |
BigRocky: It says a lot about the Democratic system. It's surely a beautiful system that gives everyone rights but functions better with checks and balances in form of strong Institution. The afghans on one hand loved this freedom that came with it while on the other hand didn't fully accept it because of their religious and traditional belief. What would happen now is a realignment of citizens into the taliban religious way of things. But I don't know why I have that gut feeling this taliban victory is some what a trap. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by ConqueredWest: 7:08am On Aug 17, 2021 |
sslcrypt: Your feeling is correct because if Taliban launches a terror* attack against any part of the Western world, the US and it's allies will return and massacre* lots of Taliban & it's supporters |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by BigRocky: 7:21am On Aug 17, 2021 |
sslcrypt:. Yeah bro,the sudden takover of afghanistan by the Taliban with little or no resistance by the Afghans forces drive your point of thinking is a trap to a believable limit.. The USA can be tricky and deadly as this might be a move to pull the talibans out of their creep and their top commanders map out for execution,which will automatically put the group in where they belong. The action of the US might also mark the end of democracy in Afghanistan and beginning of dictatorship package in form of strict Islamic rules. On the other hand the afghans religious beliefs that deprived them of fully sailing in the Ship of democracy, would do them more harm than Good.. They love freedom but does not want to be free. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by PrinxArthur1(m): 7:23am On Aug 17, 2021 |
C.I.A handed Afghanistan to Taliban 1 Like |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 7:27am On Aug 17, 2021 |
ConqueredWest:It will surely spell doom, because the talibans for 20 years were suppressed by usa pressence. Also lots of people fail to realize is the realignment of objectives of the usa. Engaged in the middle east is only a distraction because it ties down resources unnecessarily while their main adversaries growing. Now this has happened there is some sougth of rebalance to an extent. The afghans problem is now a Chinese one because of proximity and potential disruption in economic activities if the taliban choose to take their influence outside it's country. 1 Like |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by DOTian: 7:37am On Aug 17, 2021 |
This report is nothing but an attempt at making The Afghans the fall guys. The Americans in particular and the west in general should stop the habit of making ijiots the leaders of any country under their control. With the exception of South Korea and Japan and Western Europe, America has this habit of colluding with touts from other countries to run the affairs of those countries. They never try to employ the best brains. All through Americaas presence in Kabul they were never interested in making a people oriented president there. They will always go for the corrupt bunch . . You can't eat your cake and have it.... it's the case in Iraq, was the case Panama and Granada. The French and the British are doing the same in their colonies..When you make a tout the president of a country, he will misrule and never build up the structures of government needed to safeguard the country. They never put in a good work at building up strong Afghanistan because they feared the country will fall into the hands of a terrorist group again... Ironically, it was this fear that actually helped the Taliban to actualize power today, much faster than they would have ever done. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by DOTian: 7:37am On Aug 17, 2021 |
PrinxArthur1:Exactly! |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 7:54am On Aug 17, 2021 |
DOTian: There are elements of Truth in your write up. I was privilege to serve in helmand in a private capacity and to an extent can say the system of government was an all inclusive system. The warlords were recognized and were major part of the power sharing formula. The center wasn't as strong the world thought it was. Back then the talk was now everything has been setup why don't america and its allies evacuate!? It was a dicey questions because on one hand the warlords did a good collaborative work of supporting the center on the other hand some powerful interest were playing politics. Everyone back then knew the taliban were in control of the mountainous border regions and where just buying their time. Now this is result we are seeing. Everyone knew at a point the usa and its allies will pull out and leave afghanistan to govern and support itself. Afghanistan had major infrastructure setup so that it can start progressing as a country. But the leaders lacked will power even some of the hardliners that were part of the nation building process joined in the looting. One must also know afghanistan is a country made up of pocket of regions governed by it's own leaders. Which is why the taliban declearing such victory is very premature and only a matter of time before those warlords regroup and start an offensive. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by talk2hb1(m): 8:36am On Aug 17, 2021 |
Either Afghanistan goes to civil war soon, then they settle to peace. Alternatively, they have peace henceforth. Obviously things are not the same immediately united state invaded Afghanistan, and things will never be the same again. The Taliban's will soon get weakened and loose their power as a result of their doings. They will be toppled too using corruption as a tool. With China showing interest in their natural resources, The Taliban extremism is now history. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by sslcrypt: 3:28pm On Aug 17, 2021 |
Interest or no interest history has always shown afghanistan to be a hostile region any world power. China can only tighten the security operations within its own border and extended territories. Also due to the islamic law guiding the taliban that practice of china bringing chinese workers might stop. Reason is because taliban would want to look presentable and as the best alternative for the afghans going forward. Meaning more more projects would be needed to enable this face lift. In which china would be a willing participant. |
Re: Intelligence:why Afghanistan Fell by falseprophet: 4:13pm On Aug 17, 2021 |
Afghanistan is not in any chaos, the streets are safer now than when America were running things. Taliban is already offering amnesty to saboteurs and it can only get better from here. Don't let western media fool you into thinking "Afghanistan have fallen" |
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