Nigeria's Historic Opportunity

By JEFFREY D. SACHS
Published: May 30, 2011
ABUJA, NIGERIA — Visiting Nigeria the week of President Goodluck Jonathan’s inauguration is a special privilege. This country of nearly 160 million people, about one in five of sub-Saharan Africa, is on to something historic. The people feel it. After a sometimes agonizing half-century since independence, Nigeria is on the verge of a takeoff.

In my conversations with President Jonathan — who took the oath of office on Sunday — and with government ministers, leading businesspeople and representatives of civil society groups, I felt a firm determination to ensure that this time, in this decade, Nigeria fulfills its potential to become an African economic powerhouse and a member of the world’s leading emerging economies.

In practical terms, Nigeria would like to make the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — the BRINCS by the end of the decade. To those who only know Nigeria as a country that squanders its oil wealth, this ambition might seem outlandish. But for those of us who have had the chance to work with its leadership, this goal seems fully with reach.

There are five solid reasons for optimism. The first is the reform that Nigeria has been undertaking over the past dozen years. The country has changed since June 8, 1998, when the brutal dictator Sani Abacha died, opening the way for a restoration of civilian rule and the strengthening of critical institutions, including the National Assembly and state and district governments.

The second is the advent of democratic elections. President Jonathan came to power last year when his predecessor, Umaru Yar’Adua, died in office. This April he won a resounding mandate of his own in elections that were praised by observers as by far the freest and fairest in Nigeria’s history. The president’s democratic mandate is not in doubt, even if tensions linger in Nigeria’s traditional north-south ethnic divide.

The third is the global wind in Nigeria’s sails. The rise of China and India is reshaping the world economy, and providing solid support for Nigeria’s growth. Commodity prices are high, as the Asian giants tap global markets. Nigeria can expect to sell not only its vast hydrocarbon deposits at good prices, but also a wide range of agricultural products and manufactured goods. The links with Asia won’t be only through exports. China is determined to be a major partner, financing core infrastructure — highways, rail and power grids — and developing major industrial capacity.

The fourth is the “age of convergence,” the tendency of developing countries like Nigeria to make unprecedented economic advances through the deployment of best practices and advanced technologies. China, of course, has been doubling its G.D.P. every seven years with blistering economic growth rates of 10 percent per year. Nigeria is enjoying robust annual growth of around 7 percent, and could catch up to China’s rate if policies are well designed and implemented. Information technologies are rapidly spreading, from the heart of sprawling Lagos to the most remote villages. For the first time, Nigeria will have a network of up-to-date information, providing a platform for sharply higher productivity and economic specialization.

The fifth is Nigeria’s commitment to tackling extreme poverty and disease throughout the nation. The president’s senior adviser on the Millennium Development Goals, working with the National Assembly, has been leading a bold mechanism to transfer federal funds to state and local governments in a robust and accountable manner. All over the country, schools, clinics and water points are being built. It’s a great honor for us at the Earth Institute to be working with the government on this initiative.

Nigeria’s international partners can also take a bow. Back in 2005, they entrusted Nigeria with partial debt relief, and the country is turning money that otherwise would have gone toward debt payments into local investments in health, education and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, a series of finance ministers has been working to end Nigeria’s image as a place of financial scams and official corruption. Prosecutors have warned international oil companies to clean up their act — even indicting Halliburton for corruption and obtaining a settlement from the company.

Of course, Nigeria still faces very real risks. The country’s population is enormously diverse, with sharp regional and religious divisions. Violence continues to flare. Global climate change poses risks to health, agricultural development and water supplies. A recent U.N. report notes that Nigeria’s rapidly growing population could exceed 700 million by the end of this century, unless family planning services are put in place. The public wants these services; the government’s challenge is to respond effectively.

I’ve watched nations on the eve of economic takeoff, in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia. Optimism is in the air in Abuja, and for good reason.

Jeffrey D. Sachs is director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/opinion/31iht-edsachs31.html?_r=1

Without doubt, Jonathan is Nigeria's bus that will lead us off the road to nowhere. For to long, we have been ruled (not led) by ex-generals and their goons, but at long last we have a refreshing break. Lets make the best of it.

Another white ass licker, they want to ensure that we keep borrowing money from them that we will still and lodge in their banks then they will seize it and use it for themselves while we pay back - one day is one day.

otokx:

Another white backside licker, they want to ensure that we keep borrowing money from them that we will still and lodge in their banks then they will seize it and use it for themselves while we pay back - one day is one day.

If you don't know who Jeffrey Sachs is, the least you could have done was to google his name on the internet to learn who he is before exposing you intellectual emptiness here!

otokx:

Another white backside licker, they want to ensure that we keep borrowing money from them that we will still and lodge in their banks then they will seize it and use it for themselves while we pay back - one day is one day.

That is a sorry accepting responsibility for decisions 99.9% of the times, made by Nigerians.

This coming from Jeffrey Sachs!!! Then surely Nigeria is on the verge of something!!!
Jefferey Sachs is a topnotch Columbia Professor!! Great Dude!!

tell us something we didn't already know! I think any positive change moving forward would be credited to the Nigerian mass's demand for good governance. If there is good governance and accountability, Nigeria would be a paradise! No offense, but we don't need some "Leading Economist" predicting for us! We support our president and pray and hope he governs with shrewdness and people's needs on his mind! I personally feel Jonathan will put Nigeria on a trail blazing path!
I can understand the sentiments of some poster getting angry about this so called " Economic Expert" predicting or whateva, It seems like we tend to take anything coming from the Western albeit "white" world as absolute for the lack of a better word.

quite amazing but i dont think an outsider s prediction can actually convince, i pray this to be actualize but can it? with this bombing all over the place!

Yea, when pigs lay eggs. The same GEJ that's still looking for a second term to make any kinda change in Nigeria.

Some ppl are already licking boots because of his Columbia affiliation. O ma se.

Ileke-IdI:

Yea, when pigs lay eggs. The same GEJ that's still looking for a second term to make any kinda change in Nigeria.

Some ppl are already licking boots because of his Columbia affiliation. O ma se.

Exactly!

Jeffrey Sachs ,  have never been to Nigeria before. Nigeria is not becoming anything .    he does not know anything  about nigeria.

I am going to put my money  to this.


Is Jeffrey Sachs ready to dance nake infront of new york stock exchange.     


Well we are talking of the lifes of millions. Now. did Jeffrey Sachs and united nation secretary see , the bombing all over nigeria in  the last 24 hours. that is what is going to happen under jonathan more bombing. if you know the history of nigeria.


Jeffrey Sachs  should look at this video. this is what they will do to Jonathan if you know nigeria history if they keep nigeria one, they have to break it up,  It is a mad society. you have seen bombing in the last 24 hrs, that is what will happen under jonathan Goodluck. Jeffrey Sachs knows nothing about nigeria. they need to break it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ol7EgxFx3o

musiwa.:

Jeffrey Sachs , have never been to Nigeria before. Nigeria is not becoming anything . he does not know anything about nigeria.

I am going to put my money to this.


Is Jeffrey Sachs ready to dance nake infront of new york stock exchange.


Well we are talking of the lifes of millions. Now. did Jeffrey Sachs and united nation secretary see , the bombing all over nigeria in the last 24 hours. that is what is going to happen under jonathan more bombing. if you know the history of nigeria.


Jeffrey Sachs should look at this video. this is what they will do to Jonathan if you know nigeria history if they keep nigeria one, they have to break it up, It is a mad society. you have seen bombing in the last 24 hrs, that is what will happen under jonathan Goodluck. Jeffrey Sachs knows nothing about nigeria. they need to break it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ol7EgxFx3o

we have heard things like this before from well-known economist for ages and see where we are till date. Apology to economists but i have stopped believing them. My philosophy now is i will only believe when i see.

[size=18pt]Go Johnny Go ![/size]



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3haYAbqKjA&feature=related

If electricity reforms occur, then the sky is the limit. Imo.

It is one thing for an eminent economist to make a glowing prediction about Nigeria, it is another for Nigerians to actually maximise the potentials. Lets be clear about one thing, though very welcome news, this climate has existed post civil war times, but we squandered it. We must not be allowed to make the same mistakes again, some countries do get as many chances as Nigeria do.

I believe fundamentally corruption must now be tackled head-on. Yes there are loads of global blue-chips companies lining up to take a bite of the Nigeria magic, but most still cite the harsh conditions of doing business as a stumbling block.

Check this out, for one do you know it Takes 4 Days from start to finish to register and start a business in Rwanda?

Well the average in sub-saharan Africa is 45 days, and I know Nigeria firmly sits in the middle. We must make our country one that is business friendly

Well, I have always argued this point with some friends. I am convinced that Nigeria is making some degree of economic progress in-spite of bad governance, not because of good governance. With the amount of resources at our disposal, I see no reason why our economy cannot grow at a rate of 15% per annum. Sadly, our political leadership insist on milking the country dry with impunity. In case, you are looking for evidence, just look at the current Dimeji Bankole fiasco and conclude for yourself.

Sachs did not say anything about our Education System, especially Science Education. We should not believe that throwing money at problems always get the problem solved. Our Children can not pass WAEC/NECO anymore, we can hardly boast of 10 standard technical school in the whole country, and we are now travelling abraod to study courses like Human Resources Management,Strategic Management .

How are we going produce our Micro Chips, leverage on biotechnology, Build our machines, grow our food with latest techniques. In case we do not know, South Africa produce export everything- Pharmaceuticals, Ammunitions, Industrial machinery, Agricultural Products.

I am convinced that money moves from a region of lesser knowledge to a region of higher knowledge, the exceptions to this are taxes and Grants.

Goooooodluck you can do it!!!!

Another white backside licker, they want to ensure that we keep borrowing money from them that we will still and lodge in their banks then they will seize it and use it for themselves while we pay back - one day is one day.

 


@ otokx GBAM, my bro u have spoken well, I like people with foresight and a good analytical brain. Well done jare,

The Economist wey no dey on ground to see people doing  "0- 1- 0" meals in some places, 4get figures men, deal with the micro,

Sponsored talk I think, u don't really want to know the kind of international spin our leaders get into this day ooo

In OBJ's days it was this Atlanta kobo kobo outfit he used, with Andrew Young and Mr Carl Masters. chop clean mouf Americans,  isssh

Tschewwwwwwwwwwww  

I'VE ALWAYS HAVE STRONG BELIEF IN THE ABILITY OF NIGERIANS TO CHANGE FOR BETTER WITH GOOD LEADERSHIP. NIGERIANS ARE NATURALLY GOOD AND VERY DYNAMIC PEOPLE. IF THE LEADERSHIP IS RIGHT, FOLLOWERSHIP IS VERY EASY. CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE CAN PATIENTLY QUEUE UP FOR BRT IN LAGOS? THAT IS NIGERIAN SPIRIT FOR U ONE'S THE RULES ARE MADE TO WORK WITHOUT BIAS.
THE SEEMINGLY NIGERIAN CORRUPT LEADERS CAN CHANGE. THEY ARE NOT NATURALLY THE WAY THEY ARE. I BELIEVE THEY ARE SHAPED BY THE ROT IN THE SOCIETY. LET'S CONTINUE TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND WORK FOR A BETTER NIGERIA. NO MATTER WHERE YOU GO, INSPITE OF THE BOMBINGS AND OTHER ANOMALLIES, THERE CAN NEVER BE A PLACE LIKE HOME. GEJ AND NIGERIANS PARTICULARLY, RIDE ON!

I'VE ALWAYS HAD STRONG BELIEF IN THE ABILITY OF NIGERIANS TO CHANGE FOR BETTER WITH GOOD LEADERSHIP. NIGERIANS ARE NATURALLY GOOD AND VERY DYNAMIC PEOPLE. IF THE LEADERSHIP IS RIGHT, FOLLOWERSHIP IS VERY EASY. CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE CAN PATIENTLY QUEUE UP FOR BRT IN LAGOS? THAT IS NIGERIAN SPIRIT FOR U ONE'S THE RULES ARE MADE TO WORK WITHOUT BIAS.
THE SEEMINGLY NIGERIAN CORRUPT LEADERS CAN CHANGE. THEY ARE NOT NATURALLY THE WAY THEY ARE. I BELIEVE THEY ARE SHAPED BY THE ROT IN THE SOCIETY. LET'S CONTINUE TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND WORK FOR A BETTER NIGERIA. NO MATTER WHERE YOU GO, INSPITE OF THE BOMBINGS AND OTHER ANOMALLIES, THERE CAN NEVER BE A PLACE LIKE HOME. GEJ AND NIGERIANS PARTICULARLY, RIDE ON!

The man has said nothing new. 10 years ago, this was true of Nigeria. 20 years ago, the same was said of Nigeria. Even up until the day of Yar adua's death, this same held true. What I find fascinating is how we come in here every other month to celebrate this same truth as if it were just announced for the first time to us.

Thank God for this Economist man, however, I refuse to fall under illusion.
Even my favorite Economist of all time in my opinion, John Maynard Keynes still has few flaws in his theory(ies)

Here is my views on  his optimism:
1There are five solid reasons for optimism. The first is the reform that Nigeria has been undertaking over the past dozen years. The country has changed since June 8, 1998, when the brutal dictator Sani Abacha died, opening the way for a restoration of civilian rule and the strengthening of critical institutions, including the National Assembly and state and district governments.  

We thank God for the restoration but the national assembly and district had repaid the citizenry with looting treasury, hence we  have not achieve more.Though I still share with your optimism sir!

2.The second is the advent of democratic elections. President Jonathan came to power last year when his predecessor, Umaru Yar’Adua, died in office. This April he won a resounding mandate of his own in elections that were praised by observers as by far the freest and fairest in Nigeria’s history. The president’s democratic mandate is not in doubt, even if tensions linger in Nigeria’s traditional north-south ethnic divide.

Yes, democracy, however, majority of people still voted base on tribalism,nepotism, sentiment and in all the best election is not this year election, 1993 remain ever-green in the memory of those who understands true democracy.


3.The third is the global wind in Nigeria’s sails. The rise of China and India is reshaping the world economy, and providing solid support for Nigeria’s growth. Commodity prices are high, as the Asian giants tap global markets. Nigeria can expect to sell not only its vast hydrocarbon deposits at good prices, but also a wide range of agricultural products and manufactured goods. The links with Asia won’t be only through exports. China is determined to be a major partner, financing core infrastructure — highways, rail and power grids — and developing major industrial capacit

.
We pray our leader listen to this. More importantly, agricultural product and exportation. We depend too much on crude,

4The fourth is the “age of convergence,” the tendency of developing countries like Nigeria to make unprecedented economic advances through the deployment of best practices and advanced technologies. China, of course, has been doubling its G.D.P. every seven years with blistering economic growth rates of 10 percent per year. Nigeria is enjoying robust annual growth of around 7 percent, and could catch up to China’s rate if policies are well designed and implemented. Information technologies are rapidly spreading, from the heart of sprawling Lagos to the most remote villages. For the first time, Nigeria will have a network of up-to-date information, providing a platform for sharply higher productivity and economic specialization.

I relatively dis-agree with your suggestion on best practice as this will only make us to be like not above. On issue of Policies,
well, our president only understands ULTIMATUMS , I pray he heeds your advice on this.

5.The fifth is Nigeria’s commitment to tackling extreme poverty and disease throughout the nation. The president’s senior adviser on the Millennium Development Goals, working with the National Assembly, has been leading a bold mechanism to transfer federal funds to state and local governments in a robust and accountable manner. All over the country, schools, clinics and water points are being built. It’s a great honor for us at the Earth Institute to be working with the government on this initiative.

Theory lopo ju ninu eleyi jare. Clinic without power is useless! Water without food na hunger! School without sound teachers na bunch of illiterates etc

Kobojunkie:

The man has said nothing new. 10 years ago, this was true of Nigeria. 20 years ago, the same was said of Nigeria. Even up until the day of Yar adua's death, this same held true. What I find fascinating is how we come in here every other month to celebrate this same truth as if it were just announced for the first time to us.

While I agree with you that the underlying idea in the analysis may not be new, they are being (re)presented in line with modern realities. In order words, what Sachs is saying ( as is clear from the title of his article) is that the "Opportunity" is still available and we can make "History"  by maximising it this time especially in the light of global happenings.  Furthermore, the fact that the same was said 10 or 20 years ago does not in anyway diminish the substance of his arguments. This is because as you may be aware, economic analysis depends on "all things being equal". Thus what Sachs has done is to situate the analysis in the light of modern realities while highlighting the "things that need to be equal" for Nigeria to get there.

muami:

While I agree with you that the underlying idea in the analysis may not be new, they are being (re)presented in line with modern realities. In order words, what Sachs is saying ( as is clear from the title of his article) is that the "Opportunity" is still available and we can make "History"  by maximising it this time especially in the light of global happenings.  Furthermore, the fact that the same was said 10 or 20 years ago does not in anyway diminish the substance of his arguments. This is because as you may be aware, economic analysis depends on "all things being equal". Thus what Sachs has done is to situate the analysis in the light of modern realities while highlighting the "things that need to be equal" for Nigeria to get there.

Well, here again . . . .

There were global happenings 20 years ago, and then there were also global happenings 10 years ago .  . . even 2 years ago, there were global happenings . . .  We could have made history even then by maximizing the opportunities even then . . . so I see no reason why we celebrate every time we read this. "All things been equal" applied 10 years ago -- even 20 years ago. The problem has never been the lack of opportunity or the lack of resources. We have been the problem, and we still remain the problem. Sachs is not new to this. Many have done exactly the same before now.  We celebrated this very same truth during the yar adua years -- we do this about every other month.

Kobojunkie said:

The man has said nothing new. 10 years ago, this was true of Nigeria. 20 years ago, the same was said of Nigeria.

Wrong. Nigeria NEVER attained 7% annual economic growth 10 years or 20 years ago. Whatever optimism there was back then was always dampened, suppressed, and reversed by the political imbroglio, tensions, impunity, instability, and uncertainty generated by military rule, and rigged-in civilian leaders.

Those developmental impediments are today GONE. DISAPPEARED.

Just yesterday, after decades of pressure by Nigerian rights groups, Jonathan signed the Freedom of Information Act 2011, granting Nigerians the right to access public records for the first time in the nation's history. This bill should have passed 4 years ago, but OBJ vetoed it. It's being universally hailed as a mighty leap forward in the battle against corruption.

So a lot has changed, and you need to take Mr Sach's contentions a lot more seriously.

Kobojunkie:

Well, here again . . . .

There were global happenings 20 years ago, and then there were also global happenings 10 years ago .  . . even 2 years ago, there were global happenings . . .  We could have made history even then by maximizing the opportunities even then . . . so I see no reason why we celebrate every time we read this. "All things been equal" applied 10 years ago -- even 20 years ago. The problem has never been the lack of opportunity or the lack of resources. We have been the problem, and we still remain the problem. Sachs is not new to this. Many have done exactly the same before now.  We celebrated this very same truth during the yar adua years -- we do this about every other month.

I agree that Nigeria's problem has never been that of opportunity, however, you seemed to shy away from stating the obvious that the problem has been that of leadership. Yes, Leadership. Why do we celebrate now? For the first time in the history of Nigeria, we have elected a Fresh Air as President, someone who has studied enough to undertand economic analysis and appreciate the abundant opportunities we have. It is for this reason that some of were against Buhari, and unabashedly so. We are therefore VERY OPTIMISTIC that this time, we would make progress. Don't forget that the BRICS countries were also told the same things for years and that did not stop it from coming to pass when they finally got the right leadership!

All I know is that if GEJ delivers on electricity, the we'll be able to move mountains. I don't even care if in 10 years they take away oil allocations; that is how important electricity is to me.