2023 Presidential Election: The Zoning Conundrum

The politics of zoning is currently one of Nigeria's most contentious problems, and it will almost certainly have serious ramifications for the fate of political parties at next year’s 2023 presidential poll.

It is pertinent now more than ever to discuss the principle of zoning as the Nigerian polity has never been this divided with several secessionist agitations, insecurity due to terrorism, and unprecedented economic hardship.

The political party that develops the most effective zoning policy in the upcoming Nigerian presidential elections is expected to win at the end of the current strategic planning for the 2023 general election. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), are the likely frontrunners to provide the next president of the federal republic, and members of the major political parties are already jostling for key positions, sparking debate about the zoning issue.

For more context, consider that two decades ago, zoning was a relatively uncomplicated issue, and the PDP was the main ruling party, with former Presidents Obasanjo, Yar'Adua, and then Jonathan in power. As a result, if the president is from the South, the party chairman is from the North, and vice versa. However, with the advent of the APC with its northern bent, the almighty PDP was brought down to earth from its powerful heights over 16 years, and the zoning of the 2023 presidential election has become a problem, particularly for the PDP, which has been languishing in opposition and desperately needs federal power.

Presently, the APC appears to be handling the politics of zoning for the 2023 Presidential election much better than the PDP. With the exception of Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, the other APC members who have publicly expressed interest in the presidential race are from the South: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, Senator Rochas Okorocha, Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State, and – by proxy – Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti. So far, the APC appears to be leaning south, with most of its northern members more interested in vying for the party's chairmanship.

The PDP is currently in a quandary over how to position itself to win in 2023. Despite the APC's widely perceived poor performance in central government, a number of PDP senators and House of Representatives members are defecting to the APC. The PDP had hoped that the APC would announce their zoning plans first, allowing it to confirm its strategy, but the ruling party appears to be very adept at tossing the opposition around.

Unlike the APC, the PDP has a long list of northern presidential candidates, including Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Bukola Saraki, Hon. Aminu Tambuwal, Bala Muhammad, and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso. If the PDP implements goes ahead with a no-zoning policy, these northern aspirants will face, for the time being, opposition from the South in the likes of Peter Obi, Ayo Fayose, Nyesom Wike, Udom Emmanuel, Anyim Pius Anyim, Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa, and Dele Momodu.

Its decisions around the zoning policy are bound to exacerbate the party's schism, with serious consequences in the 2023 elections. The PDP suffered a crushing defeat and imploded in 2014/2015, owing largely to this same division. The explanation usually given by PDP leaders is that consultations are still ongoing, and that many of the aspirants are also engaged in consultations. Whatever the case may be, the uncertainty within the party only serves to give other political parties an advantage at different levels.