EDO LGA Polls: Obaseki's Delegates And Philip Shaibu's Dilemma, Matters Arising By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

The last 48 hrs in Edo State has seen a lot of political development, Governor Godwin Obaseki inaugurated a  seven-member Edo State Independent Electoral Commission (EDSIEC), headed by their chairman, Justice James Oyomire (Rtd.), to conduct elections into local government councils across the state.

The EDSIEC has fixed 19th April 2022 for the date of the elections. Over the years local government elections across the Federation which are obviously under the purview of the State Government in power has "never ever" been deduced to be free and fair.

Most times the ruling party always have their way no matter how popular or unpopular the party is in the eyes of the populace. How it gets manipulated that is at complete variance with the INEC conducted elections always beats my imagination.

Matters Arising.

It is an open secret that Obaseki and the executives of PDP in the State are at cross purposes, and also it is of note that the Deputy Governor, H.E Philip Shaibu is in a bitter feud with the leaders of the PDP. 

So tactically it is a three-horse race between Obaseki and the PDP and Philip Shaibu with the PDP. The crux of the battle is the struggle for delegates in the PDP forthcoming congress and beyond.

Obaseki is rumoured to have a Vice Presidential ambition and Philip Shaibu has his eyes on the 2024 governorship election in the State.

So in essence the battle for the control of Edo State PDP is a Short, Medium and Long term stake. Although I see no problem why Obaseki should be in a debacle because as the sitting Governor he ordinarily should control the LOYALTY of party executives.

He holds the knife and the bread. Obaseki is in a position to win, cajole, oppress, befriend and even control any Edo PDP party delegates if he so wishes, this remains my personal opinion and actually the reality.

The coming Local Government election would give Obaseki an added advantage because he is sure of sweeping the whole delegates list arising from the executive positions from the elections which of course would favour his choice candidates.

Although there are many legal battles ahead that Obaseki would need to surpass to get his way. The first hurdle which he has scaled through was the amendment of the State electoral law which has been amended by the EDHA from Ninety days prior notice of an election to be held.

The second limitation is which executives of PDP is Obaseki going to use to conduct the primaries for the LGA election by the PDP? 

And finally, can he muster the required  delegates needed to make an impact? Obaseki if he's truly gunning for the Vice Presidency must be able to secure the delegates from his state to be able to be taken seriously by the party and its presidential flagbearer.

Then of course the EDHA elections would be held alongside the general elections next year which makes it very necessary for Obaseki to secure the majority of the house members at his beck and call.

If he does not do that then he risks being shoved aside by a headstrong House Of Assembly.

Although like I said if I were in Obaseki's shoes if I like I go to APC, ZLP, Labour party or remain in PDP my lawmakers must be with me in body and soul, it is just a matter of negotiations and compromise.

From the above statement of fact Obaseki should easily have his way if he so wishes and can surmount these hurdles.

Although take note an intriguing game is playing out in the current APC national convention about to commence. The APC has excluded political appointees and this is why...

Section 84 (12) reads “No political appointee at any level shall be a voting delegate or be voted for at the convention or congress of any political party for the purpose of the nomination of candidates for any election.”

"Even though a court has given a ruling that nullifies this provision, the National Assembly is set to challenge the ruling. And it is based on this that the leadership of APC issued a statement that political appointees shall not vote in tomorrow's convention."

So if it happens that the law subsists as at the time of holding the PDP primaries then Obaseki would have a major encumbrance on his hands.

Philip Shaibu's Dilemma.

Philip Shaibu would always be the most affected here for obvious reasons, he has his own ambitions of succeeding Obaseki.

Whatever compromise Obaseki may eventually have with the PDP, Philip may not be twice as lucky to get his way. Obaseki needs the structure of PDP whether he likes it or not and Philip Shaibu may be a stumbling block to Obaseki's structure because the adage says you can't eat your cake and have it.

Worthy of note is that why Obaseki has these lingering crises with the State PDP is because of trust issues.

The PDP accuses Obaseki of betraying their trust and even seems to have the backing of the Abuja Bloc. Philip would never be allowed to get his way if there has to be a compromise.

So while Obaseki should be able to have his way through with PDP delegates if he sincerely wants it, Philip may not be that fortunate.

For me, I think the PDP should give and take to get their way with Obaseki, politics is all about permanent interest.

So let us hear your opinions, what do you likely think Philip Shaibu would fall back on? Would he drop his ambitions and integrate himself into the party or does he starts making his own alternative arrangement well ahead of time?

Have you registered to vote? Please obtain your PVC and be your own Boss as the 2023 general elections approach.

My name na Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah and I am the Principal/Chairman of Bush Radio Academy.

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Philip Shaibu is an ingrate. Knowing fully well that in the next election it is the turn of Edo central, he wants to hijack the party. I'm so happy he met his match in Dan Orbih. Edo central being the stronghold of the PDP, it would be a great injustice to again give the governorship to Edo North.