Permutations and schemings is rife on how former President Goodluck Jonathan might end up being APC’s presidential candidate for 2023. But let’s assume he succeeds in clinching the APC ticket and PDP zones its ticket to the South too and Peter Obi succeeds in getting it, I’m of the thinking that Peter Obi will defeat the former president in the general elections.

Now, let me give you a practical analysis of how it would happen (ceteris paribus).

First of all, If APC hands it’s ticket to Jonathan, the campaign in the entire south would be that the north wants to shortchange the South through Jonathan which we must not let happen.

Then comes the Tinubu factor…

With Tinubu and the Southwest feeling hard done by APC in handing ticket to Jonathan, expect the Southwest to cast protest vote against APC in favour of Peter Obi.

Then is the Amaechi factor in Southsouth…

Although I must admit that Amaechi may not influence much as to who the Southsouth would vote for, I don’t see Amaechi supporting Jonathan which might make those sympathetic to his ambition cast protest votes against Jonathan. Add that to the fact that all Southsouth states except Cross River are PDP states.

That is the entire Southern votes for Peter Obi.

Then we go north…

With North Central states of Plateau and Benue and almost all others, becoming killing fields for rampaging herdsmen without much respite from the APC led FG, expect the entire North Central votes to go towards PDP at 70:30 ratio.

To the North East, if Atiku throws his weight behind Obi, and Obi chooses somebody like Ibrahim Dakwambo from Gombe as running mate, expect the North East to vote for PDP at 70:30 percent ratio or 60:40 at worst.

Then we go to the ‘almighty’ North West. I’d like to point out here that Buhari had always won this zone but never became president which shows that the relevance of the region to the result of presidential election is over-flogged. However, if Kwankwaso had not defected to irrelevant NNPP, I’d have wanted him as the best running mate to Peter Obi which would have given him considerable votes of the northwest. But with Kwankwaso out of the equation, I’d suggest PDP focuses on NC and NE votes which when added to the votes of the entire South, should be enough to guarantee victory for a Peter Obi ticket. Regardless, with the activities of banditry in Kaduna, Zamfara and Katsina, the people of the region are growing disenchanted of the APC and might want to tilt towards PDP at the elections as a way of registering their frustrations. So, PDP might end up garnering about 40 percent of the votes from this region.

So, in conclusion, I expect the voting pattern of a square up between Jonathan and Peter Obi to go thus in favor of Peter Obi:-

SE = 99%
SS = 60%
SW = 60%
NC = 70%
NE = 60/70%
NW = 40%

These is a realistic assessment of how things would go without bias nor sentiments. However I’m not expecting everyone to accept it and I will be glad to see people point out what will be different.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Lalasticlala
Mynd44

Peter Obi, will beat him hands down

Peter Obi might even step down before the primaries if jonathan decides to run, I don't see him contesting against Jonathan.

Let's face the primaries first instead of speculating ahead of yourself.
Will the money loving delegates in PDP who are after their pockets like to vote for Peter Obi over Atiku or Wike?
Our politicians are not concern about betterment of the Nation. Only interested in Power and Money.

Please relax Peter obi can't defeat Jonathan that's a fact ...infact no body can defeat Jonathan if Buhari backs him

Note tinubu would contest but won't be in APC last last

todugo:
Let's face the primaries first instead of speculating ahead of yourself.
Will the money loving delegates in PDP who are after their pockets like to vote for Peter Obi over Atiku or Wike?
Our politicians are not concern about betterment of the Nation. Only interested in Power and Money.

Supposing PDP zones its ticket to the south (which is unlikely anyways) and Atiku accepts the decision and decides to throw his weight behind Peter Obi, then the ticket is for Obi.

Or which other southern aspirant in PDP do you think Atiku would possibly support at the PDP primaries? Especially when you consider that Wike is not a friend of the north.

Obi won’t contest against a GEJ. If PO loses the Primary and GEJ is on the ballot, PO will work for his friend and Vice Versa.

But if it ever happens that there’s a contest between two of them, GEJ will sweep the election in 5 of the 6 zones bar the SE.

mrvitalis:
Please relax Peter obi can't defeat Jonathan that's a fact ...infact no body can defeat Jonathan if Buhari backs him

Note tinubu would contest but won't be in APC last last

So you think Southeast will vote Jonathan over Peter Obi?

You expect Southwest to vote Jonathan after Tinubu and Osinbajo are shortchanged?

You expect the whole of Southsouth states to vote for Jonathan especially those who would understand the implication that a Jonathan presidency would shortchange the South?

You expect North Central to cast bloc votes for Jonathan after the massacre that APC led FG has supervised in that region?

You expect Peter Obi to lose the Northeast with Atiku support and Dakwambo (for instance) as running mate?