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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote (1746 Views)
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APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by TheRareGem1(f): 3:09pm On May 17, 2022 |
By Yinusa Duba It is exactly two weeks to the Special National Convention of APC, and there are clear indications that bookmakers may be in for a shocker as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is increasingly facing strong headwinds in his bid to clinch the Party’s presidential ticket. A zone-by-zone analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scene moves and emerging voting patterns indicate that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will likely emerge winner at the Convention on June 1. Of the 22 or aspirants, only three – Osinbajo, Tinubu and Amaechi – are the serious contenders. The rest came into the race for many reasons, and so I won’t waste time profiling their chances. In fact, I am sure that these unserious ones will step down before the Convention begins. South West In the South West region, Tinubu will take Lagos, his home base, and take a slight lead in Osun. The VP will win Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and Ogun. The governors of these three states are solidly with the Osinbajo. But Osun is in strong contention by Tinubu and the VP, and so the votes would be almost evenly split between the two. South South While Chibuike Amaechi will take his home state of Rivers, Osinbajo will sweep Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa. In Bayelsa, Timipreh Sylva’s firm grip on the delegates is the VP’s advantage. Sylva will easily align with President Buhari and vote Osinbajo. In Akwa Ibom, the VP is banking on the supports of bigwigs like former Deputy Governor Nsima Ekere, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma and Senator Ita Enang, among others; while in neighbouring Cross River State, Gov. Ben Ayade is leading the battalion of supporters rooting for the VP. In Delta, Senator Omo Ovie-Agege and Minister of State for Labour, Mr. Festus Keyamo are the driving forces behind the VP. There would be serious contention for Edo State by both the VP and Tinubu. Although former APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole may be rooting for Tinubu in Edo, but the statutory delegates are solidly behind the VP. South East The South East delegates are going to the Convention with a sense of grievance. They would have loved to vote for an aspirant from their zone. But in the absence of that, the voting pattern would be disparate. Those from Imo and Ebonyi would be influenced by their governors, while the rest would mostly make their independent decisions. David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma would listen to Buhari’s persuasions and support Osinbajo with their delegates. Delegates from Enugu, Abia and Anambra will support the VP overwhelmingly, but a few would however line up behind Tinubu and Amaechi. Northern States I can confirm that the delegates from the three Zones in the North (NE, NC and NW) will vote in the same pattern because most of the 19 Northern States are APC states whose governors will go along with the President; and we all know that President Buhari is not willing to support Tinubu. Buhari is bent on having his VP succeed him. This is an established fact which has rankled the Tinubu team to no end. But it is what it is. No APC governor from the North will antagonize the President. They respect, adore and revere the old man. Northern governors will support whosoever the President anoint. Although Tinubu will make some good showings in Kano, Zamfara and a few other places, his overall performance in the North will fall behind the VP’s. Amaechi, on the other hand, will give a smattering performance in some places like Katsina. Overall, the VP will score between 70% and 75% of the total delegate votes at the Convention. Duba is an Abuja- based political pollster and analyst 2 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by cktheluckyman: 3:10pm On May 17, 2022 |
Amala joint analysis 16 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Nonpartisan1: 3:11pm On May 17, 2022 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Comedians 9 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Zonefree(m): 3:12pm On May 17, 2022 |
3 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Tiwatoke2: 3:12pm On May 17, 2022 |
Osinbajo is the best man for the job 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Oladelesp: 3:12pm On May 17, 2022 |
2023 OSINBAJO FOR THE WIN 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by haffaze777(m): 3:12pm On May 17, 2022 |
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by TheRareGem1(f): 3:13pm On May 17, 2022 |
PYO 2023 is the goal. 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Zeemam: 3:13pm On May 17, 2022 |
The result will favour Osinbajo by God's grace 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by wale8486: 3:13pm On May 17, 2022 |
werey |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Adelekan40(m): 3:15pm On May 17, 2022 |
Osinbajo will be victorious at the end of the day. He is the most preferred candidate in the APC. 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by LegendHero(m): 3:19pm On May 17, 2022 |
LOL. This thread should be moved to the comedy section. PYO can only emerge through consensus. No man can defeat Asiwaju in APC if it goes down to a game of primaries. So I don’t know where the author of this post got his own delegate voting prediction from. 7 Likes 1 Share |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Ttalk: 3:19pm On May 17, 2022 |
It is a done deal |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Softesst: 3:22pm On May 17, 2022 |
PYO2023 is a goal 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Shooyie: 3:22pm On May 17, 2022 |
I am very confident Prof osinbajo will come out victorious. 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Nobody: 3:23pm On May 17, 2022 |
cktheluckyman: 'Sepe' joint Analysis by Association of drunk and frustrated clowns. 2 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Nobody: 3:28pm On May 17, 2022 |
LegendHero: Maybe she saw it in her dreams. There's no way Tinubu will not get at least half of the 7800 votes; Infact, Babirchi Lawal put the number of locked delegates at 5,000 but let's assume that 20% of them will disappoint so that leaves around 4000 votes. Na sure banker! 3 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by famology(m): 3:28pm On May 17, 2022 |
Hahahahahahahaha..... you'll never see a more emotionally foolish analysis than this. Hahahahahahahaha.........my belle oooooo. 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Janetudeh(f): 3:29pm On May 17, 2022 |
It will be a shocker for so many people when the VP emerges as the Presidential candidate for APC. I pray the odds work in his Favour. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Osayitope: 3:31pm On May 17, 2022 |
Osinbajo for President � 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by duro4chang(m): 3:31pm On May 17, 2022 |
Mere assumption |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Validated: 3:31pm On May 17, 2022 |
Zeemam:Tinubu's refusal to condemn Deborah Samuel's gruesome and senseless murder has pittted his ambition against more than 98% of Christian delegates against his ambition. Ballot casting is not done by governors, but individuals and It will shock Tinubu to realise that several Lagos delegates will vote against him. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by chibrolex(m): 3:32pm On May 17, 2022 |
Who told u Osibanjo is Buhari's candidate?from your analysis,whoever Buhari support is winning the primary election..my question is who is Buhari's prefer candidate among this three? |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by PassingShot(m): 3:33pm On May 17, 2022 |
How much does Osinbajo pay these rats to spam every thread with incoherent posts? Wrong strategy that never worked for Poverty Development Party is what he has copied ![]() ![]() 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Joyce95: 3:34pm On May 17, 2022 |
OSINBAJO For 2023 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Validated: 3:35pm On May 17, 2022 |
Siwel25:Perhaps Barbarchi was righly speculating 2500 before mudslims murdered Deborah. The mood of Christians have changed since. Pls go to churches and hear christians think. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by PassingShot(m): 3:35pm On May 17, 2022 |
TheRareGem1: ![]() ![]() Kiddo 5 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by IgOga(m): 3:36pm On May 17, 2022 |
![]() ![]() ![]() I don't like to read nonsense... |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Mickykarim: 3:36pm On May 17, 2022 |
NONSENSICAL. The first and most outstanding in the outlandish day dream delusional post happened on Ondo going for the diminutive treacherous VP. THIS VEILED PAID AGENT IS FAR BEHIN IN THE NEWS YET WOULD WANT US TO TAKE ARRANT NONSENSE PRESENTED HERE. Since he is not current with the news. He and others behind in the news should read "The True Meaning Of Asiwaju-He Breasted The Tape Again" on https://www.nairaland.com/7129692/true-meaning-asiwaju-he-breasted. The governor and people of Ondo state signed and endorsed the presidential form of ABAT to the party, already. The first again in the race to meet the timeline of the electioneering process, just like he led in the pronouncement of his ambition and intention to run for the presidency of Nigeria. Ondo state will not go for Prof Osinbanjo. You are very wrong and as wrong as lying about the polar settings of the rising and setting of the sun in reverse order. Take both your ignorance wishful thinking and delusion elsewhere. MSITER NOBODY COULD BE MORE WRONG WITH THE FALSEHOOD YOU TEND TO PROPAGATE. IT DID NOT FLY. 1 Like |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Nobody: 3:37pm On May 17, 2022 |
This writer is obviously a fan of Osinbajo. QED! 3 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by IgOga(m): 3:38pm On May 17, 2022 |
Validated: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 2 Likes |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Mickykarim: 3:43pm On May 17, 2022 |
How will his condemnation bring back to life, the victim. And how is this a delegate vote issue? 1 Like |
Academic Qualifications: CSO Writes IGP, Wants Tinubu Arrested Within 48 Hours / Exposed: Sam Omatseye During GEJ / Video: Thousands Of Tinubu Supporters Hold Massive Rally For Him
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