By Yinusa Duba

It is exactly two weeks to the Special National Convention of APC, and there are clear indications that bookmakers may be in for a shocker as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is increasingly facing strong headwinds in his bid to clinch the Party’s presidential ticket. A zone-by-zone analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scene moves and emerging voting patterns indicate that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will likely emerge winner at the Convention on June 1. Of the 22 or aspirants, only three – Osinbajo, Tinubu and Amaechi – are the serious contenders. The rest came into the race for many reasons, and so I won’t waste time profiling their chances. In fact, I am sure that these unserious ones will step down before the Convention begins.

South West

In the South West region, Tinubu will take Lagos, his home base, and take a slight lead in Osun. The VP will win Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and Ogun. The governors of these three states are solidly with the Osinbajo. But Osun is in strong contention by Tinubu and the VP, and so the votes would be almost evenly split between the two.

South South

While Chibuike Amaechi will take his home state of Rivers, Osinbajo will sweep Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa. In Bayelsa, Timipreh Sylva’s firm grip on the delegates is the VP’s advantage. Sylva will easily align with President Buhari and vote Osinbajo. In Akwa Ibom, the VP is banking on the supports of bigwigs like former Deputy Governor Nsima Ekere, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma and Senator Ita Enang, among others; while in neighbouring Cross River State, Gov. Ben Ayade is leading the battalion of supporters rooting for the VP. In Delta, Senator Omo Ovie-Agege and Minister of State for Labour, Mr. Festus Keyamo are the driving forces behind the VP. There would be serious contention for Edo State by both the VP and Tinubu. Although former APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole may be rooting for Tinubu in Edo, but the statutory delegates are solidly behind the VP.





South East

The South East delegates are going to the Convention with a sense of grievance. They would have loved to vote for an aspirant from their zone. But in the absence of that, the voting pattern would be disparate. Those from Imo and Ebonyi would be influenced by their governors, while the rest would mostly make their independent decisions. David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma would listen to Buhari’s persuasions and support Osinbajo with their delegates. Delegates from Enugu, Abia and Anambra will support the VP overwhelmingly, but a few would however line up behind Tinubu and Amaechi.

Northern States

I can confirm that the delegates from the three Zones in the North (NE, NC and NW) will vote in the same pattern because most of the 19 Northern States are APC states whose governors will go along with the President; and we all know that President Buhari is not willing to support Tinubu. Buhari is bent on having his VP succeed him. This is an established fact which has rankled the Tinubu team to no end. But it is what it is. No APC governor from the North will antagonize the President. They respect, adore and revere the old man. Northern governors will support whosoever the President anoint. Although Tinubu will make some good showings in Kano, Zamfara and a few other places, his overall performance in the North will fall behind the VP’s. Amaechi, on the other hand, will give a smattering performance in some places like Katsina.

Overall, the VP will score between 70% and 75% of the total delegate votes at the Convention.

Duba is an Abuja- based political pollster and analyst

Amala joint analysis

Comedians

cktheluckyman:
Amala joint analysis

Osinbajo is the best man for the job

2023 OSINBAJO FOR THE WIN

PYO 2023 is the goal.

The result will favour Osinbajo by God's grace

werey

Osinbajo will be victorious at the end of the day. He is the most preferred candidate in the APC.

LOL.

This thread should be moved to the comedy section.

PYO can only emerge through consensus. No man can defeat Asiwaju in APC if it goes down to a game of primaries.

So I don’t know where the author of this post got his own delegate voting prediction from.

It is a done deal

PYO2023 is a goal

I am very confident Prof osinbajo will come out victorious.

cktheluckyman:
Amala joint analysis

'Sepe' joint Analysis by Association of drunk and frustrated clowns.

LegendHero:
LOL.

This thread should be moved to the comedy section.

PYO can only emerge through consensus. No man can defeat Asiwaju in APC if it goes down to a game of primaries.

So I don’t know where the author of this post got his own delegate voting prediction from.

Maybe she saw it in her dreams. There's no way Tinubu will not get at least half of the 7800 votes; Infact, Babirchi Lawal put the number of locked delegates at 5,000 but let's assume that 20% of them will disappoint so that leaves around 4000 votes. Na sure banker!

Hahahahahahahaha..... you'll never see a more emotionally foolish analysis than this. Hahahahahahahaha.........my belle oooooo.

It will be a shocker for so many people when the VP emerges as the Presidential candidate for APC. I pray the odds work in his Favour.

Osinbajo for President �

Mere assumption

Zeemam:
The result will favour Osinbajo by God's grace

Tinubu's refusal to condemn Deborah Samuel's gruesome and senseless murder has pittted his ambition against more than 98% of Christian delegates against his ambition. Ballot casting is not done by governors, but individuals and It will shock Tinubu to realise that several Lagos delegates will vote against him.

Who told u Osibanjo is Buhari's candidate?from your analysis,whoever Buhari support is winning the primary election..my question is who is Buhari's prefer candidate among this three?

How much does Osinbajo pay these rats to spam every thread with incoherent posts?
Wrong strategy that never worked for Poverty Development Party is what he has copied

OSINBAJO For 2023

Siwel25:


Maybe she saw it in her dreams. There's no way Tinubu will not get at least half of the 7800 votes; Infact, Babirchi Lawal put the number of locked delegates at 5,000 but let's assume that 20% of them will disappoint so that leaves around 4000 votes. Na sure banker!

Perhaps Barbarchi was righly speculating 2500 before mudslims murdered Deborah. The mood of Christians have changed since. Pls go to churches and hear christians think.

TheRareGem1:

By Yinusa Duba

It is exactly two weeks to the Special National Convention of APC, and there are clear indications that bookmakers may be in for a shocker as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is increasingly facing strong headwinds in his bid to clinch the Party’s presidential ticket. A zone-by-zone analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scene moves and emerging voting patterns indicate that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will likely emerge winner at the Convention on June 1. Of the 22 or aspirants, only three – Osinbajo, Tinubu and Amaechi – are the serious contenders. The rest came into the race for many reasons, and so I won’t waste time profiling their chances. In fact, I am sure that these unserious ones will step down before the Convention begins.

South West

In the South West region, Tinubu will take Lagos, his home base, and take a slight lead in Osun. The VP will win Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and Ogun. The governors of these three states are solidly with the Osinbajo. But Osun is in strong contention by Tinubu and the VP, and so the votes would be almost evenly split between the two.

South South

While Chibuike Amaechi will take his home state of Rivers, Osinbajo will sweep Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa. In Bayelsa, Timipreh Sylva’s firm grip on the delegates is the VP’s advantage. Sylva will easily align with President Buhari and vote Osinbajo. In Akwa Ibom, the VP is banking on the supports of bigwigs like former Deputy Governor Nsima Ekere, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma and Senator Ita Enang, among others; while in neighbouring Cross River State, Gov. Ben Ayade is leading the battalion of supporters rooting for the VP. In Delta, Senator Omo Ovie-Agege and Minister of State for Labour, Mr. Festus Keyamo are the driving forces behind the VP. There would be serious contention for Edo State by both the VP and Tinubu. Although former APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole may be rooting for Tinubu in Edo, but the statutory delegates are solidly behind the VP.





South East

The South East delegates are going to the Convention with a sense of grievance. They would have loved to vote for an aspirant from their zone. But in the absence of that, the voting pattern would be disparate. Those from Imo and Ebonyi would be influenced by their governors, while the rest would mostly make their independent decisions. David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma would listen to Buhari’s persuasions and support Osinbajo with their delegates. Delegates from Enugu, Abia and Anambra will support the VP overwhelmingly, but a few would however line up behind Tinubu and Amaechi.

Northern States

I can confirm that the delegates from the three Zones in the North (NE, NC and NW) will vote in the same pattern because most of the 19 Northern States are APC states whose governors will go along with the President; and we all know that President Buhari is not willing to support Tinubu. Buhari is bent on having his VP succeed him. This is an established fact which has rankled the Tinubu team to no end. But it is what it is. No APC governor from the North will antagonize the President. They respect, adore and revere the old man. Northern governors will support whosoever the President anoint. Although Tinubu will make some good showings in Kano, Zamfara and a few other places, his overall performance in the North will fall behind the VP’s. Amaechi, on the other hand, will give a smattering performance in some places like Katsina.

Overall, the VP will score between 70% and 75% of the total delegate votes at the Convention.

Duba is an Abuja- based political pollster and analyst

Kiddo

I don't like to read nonsense...

NONSENSICAL.

The first and most outstanding in the outlandish day dream delusional post happened on Ondo going for the diminutive treacherous VP.

THIS VEILED PAID AGENT IS FAR BEHIN IN THE NEWS YET WOULD WANT US TO TAKE ARRANT NONSENSE PRESENTED HERE.

Since he is not current with the news. He and others behind in the news should read "The True Meaning Of Asiwaju-He Breasted The Tape Again" on https://www.nairaland.com/7129692/true-meaning-asiwaju-he-breasted.

The governor and people of Ondo state signed and endorsed the presidential form of ABAT to the party, already. The first again in the race to meet the timeline of the electioneering process, just like he led in the pronouncement of his ambition and intention to run for the presidency of Nigeria.

Ondo state will not go for Prof Osinbanjo. You are very wrong and as wrong as lying about the polar settings of the rising and setting of the sun in reverse order. Take both your ignorance wishful thinking and delusion elsewhere.

MSITER NOBODY COULD BE MORE WRONG WITH THE FALSEHOOD YOU TEND TO PROPAGATE. IT DID NOT FLY.

This writer is obviously a fan of Osinbajo. QED!

Validated:

Tinubu's refusal to condemn Deborah Samuel's gruesome and senseless murder has pittted his ambition against more than 98% of Christian delegates against his ambition. Ballot casting is not done by governors, but individuals and It will shock Tinubu to realise that several Lagos delegates will vote against him.

Please stay clear of politics. It's not your business

How will his condemnation bring back to life, the victim. And how is this a delegate vote issue?