So, ever since Kwankwaso defected from PDP to NNPP, there seems to be some kind of political tsunami going on in Kano with the political crème de la crème in Kano falling over themselves to join the new but emerging political strong force.

What has been confusing however, is how some people have reacted to the situation, with some arguing that it is PDP’s loss and others arguing it is APC’s loss.

It is what prompted this piece, to truly mirror whose loss the emerging political reality in Kano would be.

To best understand this, we need to go back memory lane a bit to the 2015 general elections where the APC got over 1.9million votes in Kano alone. When you consider the fact that Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan by a margin of about 3million votes, you will realize that Kano alone accounted for approximately 2million of those votes.

Again in 2019 general elections, the APC garnered about 1.1million votes in Kano while the PDP could only muster about 391,000 votes from the state.

Now, with the above statistics in view, you will realize that Kano is clearly APC’s stronghold.

Now, this stronghold is what is about to be decimated and APC has not gained any new territory since 2019 except for some few high profile defections that might really deliver the required votes.

If you doubt how irrelevant high profile defections are to elections, go and ask Andy Uba of Anambra state. Because with all the big names who defected to the APC to support him the state gubernatorial elections, he still came third before Supreme Court voided his participation in the election.

So, with Kano gone, and no new territory gained, it is quite obvious that what is happening in Kano is clearly APC’s loss as I cannot see where they would be making up for the votes that would be lost to Kwankwaso in Kano.

And when we go broader to consider the fact that Kwankwaso’s new party might as well garner votes in other states in the Northwest region which is an APC stronghold, you will realize the APC has more to worry about the Kwankwaso tsunami than do PDP.

In the last count, PDP’s SE and SS votes are in intact.

The party’s votes in the Southwest, especially if a southwesterner does not end up getting the APC ticket, is still there.

With herdsmen menace, more people are even likely to vote for PDP in the North Central.

Now, PDP, APC and NNPP will share Northwest with APC likely to have a slight edge due votes from other states except Kano.

In the North East, if Atiku ends up getting the PDP ticket, the region might give 70% of their votes to PDP. And if a southerner (Peter Obi) gets the ticket, he’s likely to run with a North Easterner (Dakwambo) which might still give him about 50% of the region’s votes.

In all, I just want those arguing to understand that the political situation in Kano is a bigger disadvantage to APC by wide margin than it is to PDP because it is only going to shrink APC’s votes for PDP to play catch up.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Mynd44

I think it's a win for PDP.

Any new political development yorubas will interpreted it to suit themselves. This cowardly attitude in national politics is funny. It's obvious that what is happening in Kano is a blow to APC but afonjas are still twisting it to feel good at all cost

PDP do not have much to lose to be sincere because they are not going to win Kano by the way.

masinga07:
PDP do not have much to lose to be sincere because they are not going to win Kano by the way.

Exactly my point.

In the last two elections, PDP have only succeeded in garnering just few thousands of votes unlike APC who garnered over 1.9million votes in 2015 for instance.

So, Kano situation is APC loss. Which is why it is funny to see some APC supporters trying to play down the consequences by rehashing “PDP is dead in Kano” as if it changes anything.