Like Nigeria, like India: How far can they go to challenge China as the next powerhouse.

By Adediji Abdulwasiu Adeshina

Nigeria's population is projected to increase to 263 million in 2030 and 401 million in 2050 when it will become the third most populous country in the world while India has been projected to displace China as the world’s most populous country if the current demographic projections are maintained at a constant level in the next decades.

To some extent, India has been described as a big Nigeria owing to many similarities between the two British colonies from population to economy, way of life to things that create wealth. For Instance, there's no big difference between life in Lagos and Delhi, due to many factors, the two megacities are characterized by the breakdowns of law and order, descent into confusion partly occasioned by lack of enforcement the order, to disregard for traffic rules which leads to bumper-to-bumper traffic congestion and disorderliness.

Many have attributed China's economic acceleration growth to one of the factors of production which is the concentration of a cheap labor force that supports the quantum growth of China's manufacturing industry. After independence, China was riddled with poverty which made her one of the poorest countries in the world, but in 1978, however, after many years of planning, development, and strategizing, the country embraced economic modernization, leaving behind decades of poverty to become the premier maker of consumer electronics, car parts, and manufactured goods, in general, generating nearly as many jobs. The question is can Nigeria and India turn her much talk about projectile population and rise to challenge China as the next frontier of a global economic powerhouse?

Though it's better not to talk about her social inequality because facts are stubborn, despite these gains recorded, like other extractive jurisdictions, China has not achieved much difference from the other two countries- India and Nigeria in terms of human rights violations, that's why her citizens have continued to suffer decades of censorship despite being the leading technological hub after silicon valley. This is partly because the building blocks of these societies left by the colonial rulers at the end of their colonial rule create more pernicious and complex extractive institutions.

Like in China, even though there are many billionaires, they are creating state selective manipulation. Incentives that create wealth are primarily concentrated in the hands of a few privileged individuals, that reality is the factor why China, India, and Nigeria are lagging behind their economic potential.

Moreover, on one hand, both India and Nigeria are being ruled by a democratic system of government, on the other hand, China is ruled by a one-party system run by communist leaders. Though, China with all her human rights violations impasse is far greater than those of a democratic society. China is by far the richer of the three, with a nominal GDP of $14.1 trillion nearly five times that of India's $2.9 trillion, and 32 times Nigeria's $448.12 billion. It will be extremely interesting to see to what extent India and Nigeria can do to replicate China as the next powerhouse of the global economy.