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I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again - Politics - Nairaland

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I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Ikengawo: 6:16pm On Jul 18, 2011
if the next 5 elections are as fair and free as the last (not to say it was anywhere near fair and free but still in comparison to other nigerian elections it was an improvement)

the only popular northerner in the country, sanusi, has destroyed his potential hopes by announcing this islamic bannking at the height of boko haram's rampage, and if buhari's nod to sharia did as much damage to him as we saw in the last election, the fact that sanusi is a sharia educated islamic scholar by degree isn't going to do him much better either.

also, i honestly think the north has only been politically relevent because of the military, which is professionalizing and retracting from political affairs (if you don't believe me consider the amount of military involvment in the government in the 90s to now), and is headed by an igbo man.

but boko haram and random fulani raids are creating an environment where the north is too hated in the south to ever mount a credible electorial candidate, especially when the south is rich with stars like Chime, Fashola, Amaechi, Imoke, as well as having control of the media needed to win an election. They've also seemingly abandoned the PDP in droves, at times attacking PDP individuals and facilities violently. with this scenario in place i feel the north isn't going to be in the presidency game for a long time to come, and if jonathan thinks running his vice president as a successor will work PDP will sink with them.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by jensinmi(m): 7:31pm On Jul 18, 2011
Bros. I'm sorry to tell you this but the North, at least the core north, remains the  mostly likely to unite behind a consensus candidate.

Do not be deceived.

The NE and NW have enough votes to overrun the SW and SE combined.

Now,  why don't you pick up a calculator and do the basic math.

Are you saying a Yoruba candidate will not emerge in the next two elections??
Are you saying a South East Candidate will not emerge in the next two elections??
Are you saying a South-South Candidate will not emerge in the next couple of elections??

Do you believe that most South-Easterners would vote for a Yoruba candidate if one of their own is running??
Now,  do you honestly believe that most Yorubas will vote for a South Eastern candidate if a capable Yoruba man like Fashola is running??


Wake up and smell the coffee. Don't be deceived by the nonsense results declared in favor of GEJ.

The core north will rally behind a single candidate in the coming elections. If the results are free and fair, I believe our only hope is to convince General Buhari to run again, or else, it will be Oga Atiku. In that case, we are all screwed. Buhari is the only one that can receive full northern support or split votes with any other northern candidate, thereby allowing another region to take the cake.

In a free and fair election, all any northern candidate needs is 70 to 80% of NE and NW votes. Let us not forget the few NC votes that will add to it. We shall then laugh and see if SE and SS will vote for a Fashola. Or whether SS and SW will vote for an Okorocha, or Chime.

The North are preparing, and now that GEJ has chopped their kpomo, once they get the presidency, we call all say goodbye to it for another 12 years.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by EzeUche(m): 7:34pm On Jul 18, 2011
I would vote for a Yoruba before I vote for a Northerner.  angry
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by jensinmi(m): 7:43pm On Jul 18, 2011
EzeUche:

I would vote for a Yoruba before I vote for a Northerner.  angry

My point being that they Northerners don't exactly need southern votes to get the presidency in a free and fair election.

If the April 2011 elections were free and fair, the NE and NW block of votes would have propelled Buhari to a runoff election.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 9:44pm On Jul 18, 2011
you need at least 25 % from other regions which your not going to get in the SE or SS EVEN NC  is begining to loose its shackles from the NE ,NW. however the problem will be when both a SE and SW  person are contesting but i dont expect the SW to produce a candidate knowing well how badly the SE  wants to produce the president unless they are indirectly supporting the north. the SE can easily beat NW and NE cause they will get the total vote of SE SS  ,majority of SW and up to required percentage of NC,NE and NW.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 9:49pm On Jul 18, 2011
bashr4:

you need at least 25 % from other regions which your not going to get in the SE or SS EVEN NC  is begining to loose its shackles from the NE ,NW. however the problem will be when both a SE and SW  person are contesting but i dont expect the SW to produce a candidate knowing well how badly the SE  wants to produce the president unless they are indirectly supporting the north. the SE can easily beat NW and NE cause they will get the total vote of SE SS  ,majority of SW and up to required percentage of NC,NE and NW.



comical, bros watin u dey smoke again wink

if the so called SW produces fashola, do u not thing it would be sefless of the east to rally behind him rather than betray them again and vote for a SE person just because the SE want an igbo president or "we desperately need it"
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 9:50pm On Jul 18, 2011
EzeUche:

I would vote for a Yoruba before I vote for a Northerner.  angry

lol coming from you,. ROTFLAO grin grin grin grin
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 9:51pm On Jul 18, 2011
jensinmi:

Bros. I'm sorry to tell you this but the North, at least the core north, remains the  mostly likely to unite behind a consensus candidate.

Do not be deceived.

The NE and NW have enough votes to overrun the SW and SE combined.

Now,  why don't you pick up a calculator and do the basic math.

Are you saying a Yoruba candidate will not emerge in the next two elections??
Are you saying a South East Candidate will not emerge in the next two elections??
Are you saying a South-South Candidate will not emerge in the next couple of elections??

Do you believe that most South-Easterners would vote for a Yoruba candidate if one of their own is running??
Now,  do you honestly believe that most Yorubas will vote for a South Eastern candidate if a capable Yoruba man like Fashola is running??


Wake up and smell the coffee. Don't be deceived by the nonsense results declared in favor of GEJ.

The core north will rally behind a single candidate in the coming elections. If the results are free and fair, I believe our only hope is to convince General Buhari to run again, or else, it will be Oga Atiku. In that case, we are all screwed. Buhari is the only one that can receive full northern support or split votes with any other northern candidate, thereby allowing another region to take the cake.

In a free and fair election, all any northern candidate needs is 70 to 80% of NE and NW votes. Let us not forget the few NC votes that will add to it. We shall then laugh and see if SE and SS will vote for a Fashola. Or whether SS and SW will vote for an Okorocha, or Chime.

The North are preparing, and now that GEJ has chopped their kpomo, once they get the presidency, we call all say goodbye to it for another 12 years.


very well said
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by jmaine: 9:52pm On Jul 18, 2011
If the inflated numbers due to voters of under age category are addressed in the core North. . .  Then we shall further exposed the frail foundation of a Northern consensus candidate . . . .

alj_harem:


very well said

Why e no go be well said  grin grin . . .when that theory was exposed as null and void  wink wink  . . .

But i believe the North is a shot away from being president after GEJ . . . Then the SE might just follow suit if Nigeria still remains one which i know will remain  wink
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 9:58pm On Jul 18, 2011
jmaine:

Why e no go be well said grin grin . . .when that theory was exposed as null and void wink wink . . .
lol

how is it null and void
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by jmaine: 10:04pm On Jul 18, 2011
alj_harem:

lol

how is it null and void

To win elections in Nigeria all regions are important in the scheme of things . . .  and the Northern inflated numbers were proven to be of underage categories . . A situation most likely caused by a great number of electorates going about Thumbless sorry armless ( short sleeve and long sleeve) due to the practice of ** You Know now**   cheesy cheesy
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 10:10pm On Jul 18, 2011
jmaine:

To win elections in Nigeria all regions are important in the scheme of things . . .  and the Northern inflated numbers were proven to be of underage categories . . A situation most likely caused by a great number of electorates going about Thumbless sorry armless ( short sleeve and long sleeve) due to the practice of  ** You Know now**   cheesy cheesy
grin
my friend the north and indeed any region would need at least 25% of the remaining geo-political zone which i am well aware of.

north the question is how would they get it. well easy

the south-south especially the ijaws have ALWAYS voted for us and all we just need to do is to protect them from yoruba and igbo domination

the north would get it from the west because lagos homes 15% of northerns and extra 20% in state like ekiti, osun and oyo

in the east, we just need to give them VP and that is it

NC is a mixture of yoruba and hausa/fulani kanuri so at least 50%

who wins the north. but I would not vote for someone just because he is a northerner or muslim because that is bigotry

i rather look for development then another person
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by EzeUche(m): 10:14pm On Jul 18, 2011
Igbo magical numbers have shown we can defeat the Northerners in politics.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 10:16pm On Jul 18, 2011
EzeUche:

Igbo magical numbers have shown we can defeat the Northerners in politics.

of 5 million when north-west is 18 million

yes magic number would win

just like how jonathan won without the combine effort of NC, SS, SW and parts of NE to help him win

keep decieving urself
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 10:18pm On Jul 18, 2011
alj_harem:

comical, bros watin u dey smoke again wink

if the so called SW produces fashola, do u not thing it would be sefless of the east to rally behind him rather than betray them again and vote for a SE person just because the SE want an igbo president or "we desperately need it"

keep dreaming , what will happen to chime, soludo ,iweala? the only reason the SE  will not win is if the SW support the north which i dont see happening.
alj_harem:

grin
my friend the north and indeed any region would need at least 25% of the remaining geo-political zone which i am well aware of.

north the question is how would they get it. well easy

the south-south especially the ijaws have ALWAYS voted for us and all we just need to do is to protect them from yoruba and igbo domination

the north would get it from the west because lagos homes 15% of northerns and extra 20% in state like ekiti, osun and oyo

in the east, we just need to give them VP and that is it

NC is a mixture of yoruba and hausa/fulani kanuri so at least 50%

who wins the north. but I would not vote for someone just because he is a northerner or muslim because that is bigotry

i rather look for development then another person

e be like say na you smoke the thing
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Enice(m): 10:24pm On Jul 18, 2011
Make una dey calculate, permutate and extrapolate there. The only thing that will make a sourhern nigerian become president in 2015 is God Almighty. Before a southerner will be president again is if we beg for zoning. Take a cue from the structure of government right now. citizen number 2 to 5 is from the north. The number of senators and reps from the north is about 60% compared to the other part of the country. The country is skewed in their favour. So wake up and smell the cofee. GEJ is just marking time. If he wants to assist, then he has to put his own structure on ground which i doubt he is very weak to do.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 10:29pm On Jul 18, 2011
bashr4:

keep dreaming , what will happen to chime, soludo ,iweala? the only reason the SE  will not win is if the SW support the north which i dont see happening.
e be like say na you smoke the thing

grin grin grin brother thank God you said that because I have been waiting for such comment from you.

lets see if the SW would vote after the SE leaders screw them over and after the north took the position, they kept quite like they just wanted the SW to be down by all means. that said

secondly, the NC is a no go area. trust me wink

SS would screw the WHOLE south over and ra.pe them like they have always did only different with Jonathan there son
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 10:30pm On Jul 18, 2011
bashr

do u even know the population of northerners in the SW and SE before u are talking like this
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Enice(m): 10:54pm On Jul 18, 2011
Elections in Nigeria is not about the population of an ethnic group. It is about interest, structure, the cabal you belong to, how united your group is. Are you ready to rig? Do you have the finance? Can you kill to win? And so on. The last election was a farce. It is what I would call blind rigging. The corrupt elite did not want to see a particular candidate win because they know that would be the end of business as usual. elections are not conducted in Nigeria. Selection is what takes place.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Nobody: 10:56pm On Jul 18, 2011
EzeUche:

Igbo magical numbers have shown we can defeat the Northerners in politics.

Only because the SW did not show their own magic numbers.


@Poster

Again? Plz dont insult the MASSOBs already designing their flag, make them no come slap you back to your mother's womb. They are as ready as can be.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by kettykin: 11:28pm On Jul 18, 2011
the core north can not and will not be able to muster the political might they used before. The new alliance of se ss and mb will determin who rules.

The following people are already in my political radar , david mark ( the se and ss will rally round to vote him like the did gej) okonjo iweala , ( foreign support will force gej to hand over to her ) rochas is going to be the joker in 2015 if he plays the right card ( se ;ss, mb , sw will vote him)

babangida , buhari, atiku will be too old by 2015
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by jason123: 11:54pm On Jul 18, 2011
^^^ Some people and their MYOPIC political "analysis" undecided undecided
I mean, the political terrain in Nigeria is not about today but tomorrow. There are no permanent friends but permanent interest.

Where do you come up with statements such as SS-SE-MB alliance

@ OP
The north will taste power again whether we like it or not. All they need to do is to rally behind David mark or the current VP sambo. I mean, the top 2-5 position is theirs, so what the eff are you talking about?
The MB and SS just attained political relevance, so do you think they will want to be "owning" favours to anybody?? Guys, this is politics where your friend can be your future enemy!!!

To finish off, I'll tell those people that are including the MB in their alliance as the most UNSERIOUS PEOPLE EVER!!!
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by kettykin: 12:59am On Jul 19, 2011
well in the same forum , we all analysed and extrapolated on who would win 2011, atlast gej came from the blues and won it despite the core north and sw west fusing their candidates:

if you intrinsically look at what made gej to win , you will realise that the se decided not to field vp or presido and vote as a block, the ss did the same and the mb states of benue plateau kogi , taraba adamawa e.t.c , igbo block votes in lagos , kano , abuja kaduna and other northern states did the rest.
The igbo block vote aided gej in no small measure.
2015 will be a game of alliance , if igbos all over the country unite and vote like the did for gej and if the anointed candidate (iweala or rochas or david mark) plays his game very well the ss (atleast bayelsa , cross river, rivers and akwaibom may be some parts of delta) will be obliged to reciprocate their support . The best other candidates like fashola ,shekarau,ribadu can do is to further divide their quota voteswell in the same forum , we all analysed and extrapolated on who would win 2011, atlast gej came from the blues and won it despite the core north and sw west fusing their candidates:

if you intrinsically look at what made gej to win , you will realise that the se decided not to field vp or presido and vote as a block, the ss did the same and the mb states of benue plateau kogi , taraba adamawa e.t.c , igbo block votes in lagos , kano , abuja kaduna and other northern states did the rest.
The igbo block vote aided gej in no small measure.
2015 will be a game of alliance , if igbos all over the country unite and vote like the did for gej and if the anointed candidate (iweala or rochas or david mark) plays his game very well the ss (atleast bayelsa , cross river, rivers and akwaibom may be some parts of delta) will be obliged to reciprocate their support . The best other candidates like fashola ,shekarau,ribadu can do is to further divide their quota votes
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 1:56am On Jul 19, 2011
i will keep saying it , the only reason the south east will loose in 2015 is if the south west decide to vote a northerner which of course is not going to happen. them bringing out a candidate whether fashola will be political suicide for the whole south cause the SE will never back down giving the fact the SW have produced a president before with the SE support (whether rigged or not all na support).
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by aljharem3: 3:07am On Jul 19, 2011
bashr4:

i will keep saying it , the only reason the south east will loose in 2015 is if the south west decide to vote a northerner which of course is not going to happen. them bringing out a candidate whether fashola will be political suicide for the whole south cause the SE will never back down giving the fact the SW have produced a president before with the SE support (whether rigged or not all na support).

would u not prefer development and a good candidate than all this SE must produce the president

just saying
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 3:33am On Jul 19, 2011
alj_harem:

would u not prefer development and a good candidate than all this SE must produce the president

just saying

thank you thats exactly why i want the SE to produce the president dont worry it will be between soludo, iwealla and chime
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Nobody: 3:44am On Jul 19, 2011
Who will be SE's candidate? We do not want another GEJ, thank you.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by dayokanu(m): 3:54am On Jul 19, 2011
I dey laff
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 3:55am On Jul 19, 2011
Ileke-IdI:

Who will be SE's candidate? We do not want another GEJ, thank you.

neither do we want another OBJ,yaradua,abacha,babangida etc or are you not fed up   dont worry the SE is coming to your rescue wink
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Nobody: 3:58am On Jul 19, 2011
bashr4:

neither do we want another OBJ,yaradua,abacha,babangida etc or are you not fed up   dont worry the SE is coming to your rescue wink

OBJ is way more competent and more of a leader than GEJ. And OBJ's brain is the size of a peanut.

You guys do not even have a candidate yet. And he better not play [i]smesme [/i]with the SW if you get one by 2015.
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by bashr4: 4:05am On Jul 19, 2011
Ileke-IdI:

OBJ is way more competent and more of a leader than GEJ. And OBJ's brain is the size of a peanut.

You guys do not even have a candidate yet. And he better not play [i]smesme [/i]with the SW if you get one by 2015.

we will soon ,its too early abi u wan pursue GEJ that just got elected undecided undecided
Re: I Think It Will Be A Long Time Till A Northerner Wins The Presidency Again by Nobody: 4:29am On Jul 19, 2011
bashr4:

we will soon ,its too early abi u wan pursue GEJ that just got elected undecided undecided

When is "soon"?

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