In 2015, for the first time in the history of presidential elections in Nigeria, the ruling party was defeated at the polls. This was an unprecedented feat, considering the fact that in the machinations and upheavals that characterize electioneering in the country, it is the norm for the ruling party to deploy a significant amount of state resources to secure its victory at the ballots, and this occasion was no different. But it was to no avail.

What the All Progressives Congress (APC) achieved in ousting the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) out of Aso Villa was nothing short of a miracle. By so doing, they had managed to deliver Nigeria’s highest and most coveted political seat to a Muhammadu Buhari, who many had previously written-off as a serial loser.

It took the mega merger of disenchanted individuals in the PDP and most of the other major political heavyweights that were not a part of the then-acclaimed ‘biggest political party in Africa’ to ensure that the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan did not get reelected. Contrary to what the present APC presidential candidate for the 2023 election, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu insinuated in his highly criticized viral video, several factors came to play in ensuring Buhari’s eventual victory; and this can hardly be credited to any single individual.

Not to discountenance Tinubu’s impact in the election: In the South-West, which is his stronghold, Buhari won about 57.1% of votes. This underscores the impact of Tinubu’s alliance with Buhari, because in 2011, he won only a meagre 4.8% of votes in the region.

That notwithstanding, in 2015 the former Lagos State governor’s influence in the South did not reflect in the other southern geopolitical zones, which the PDP swept completely. While the APC won five out of six south-western states in the presidential poll, it did not manage to win any of the eleven states in the South-East and South-South. This is one challenge the APC must overcome in order to be able to deliver the presidency to Tinubu in the forthcoming 2023 polls.

The above reality cannot be overemphasized if you consider that unlike in 2019, when the APC fielded a candidate from the North who easily won majority of votes across the northern states, making more inroads into the North with a Tinubu candidacy would be much more daunting. If each of the top contenders is able to secure majority votes in their respective regions, as traditional voting pattern often suggests, the APC will only be able to guarantee second runner-up position for Tinubu. A situation where Atiku wins majority of votes in the North; Peter Obi does likewise in the South-East and South-South, and Tinubu clears the South-West, will see Atiku capitalizing on the high northern voting population and emerging victorious.

This explains why major players in Tinubu’s camp are making overtures to Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State whose fingers got burnt twice, seeking the presidential and vice-presidential tickets in the PDP. Although Wike has repeatedly insisted that he has no plans of leaving the PDP, the APC knows he is far from being happy with the state of affairs within his party, and like a one who is pained from being treated wrongly by his partner, he is at his most vulnerable; feeling bruised and unappreciated. Without gainsaying, the APC’s ability to forge some sort of alliance with politicians that matter in the other southern regions will seriously boost Tinubu’s chances at the polls.

Two other factors that would hamper APC’s chances of getting Tinubu elected as Nigeria’s president will be based on religious sentiments and his ailing health condition.

As alleged, Tinubu’s original vice-presidential candidate, Ibrahim Masari was just a dummy, or as the new political lingo describes it, a place holder. Many have touted that a major cause for concern that delayed the selection of his running mate is the challenges a Muslim-Muslim ticket poses. Like Masari, his eventual choice as running mate, Kashim Shettima, is also a Muslim. Winning the presidency on a Muslim-Muslim ticket would be another first in the history of the country. Only M.K.O. Abiola almost pulled it off in 1993, but the election was infamously annulled. For decades, parties have always fielded a less problematic religiously balanced Muslim-Christian or Christian-Muslim tag team as their flagbearer and his second. Therefore, winning the 2023 presidential election with both the presidential candidate and his running mate as Muslims would be another miraculous feat by the APC.

As for Tinubu’s health challenges, which have been on public display on several occasions, it is almost becoming the norm for at least one of the top contending political parties in Nigeria to present a candidate who is not at an optimum, or even acceptable physical capacity.
First it was Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007, with the “Umaru, are you dead?” episode; when the then incumbent president, Obasanjo, had to put a call through to him while on medical tourism abroad, at the same time his election campaign was at a crescendo at home; then the aged and almost-always-on-treatment-abroad Buhari. Ironically, it may be to Tinubu’s advantage that fortune seems to favour the sick when it comes to presidential election outcomes in Nigeria! Apparently, Nigerians have become inured to ailing presidents. Eventually, they are the ones who would be responsible for deciding whether it is best to have a fit and healthy president to steer this sinking colossus of a nation, or elect a leader that is just as sick as the country he intends to govern.

A final dynamic that differentiates the APC’s 2015 success from 2023, and would not work in their favour is the pitiable state of the nation. Except for those who choose to live in denial, the failures of the PDP that got them booted out in 2015 pales in comparison with the woes that the APC has inflicted upon Nigerians over the past seven years. Millions of Nigerians who were frustrated with the PDP and clamoured for ‘CHANGE’ did not bargain for the type of change the APC brought. For bringing Nigeria to her post-civil war nadir, the APC has lost the charm and privilege it had in its earliest days as the new bride, or the ‘angel you do not know’. Presently, Nigerians know the APC better, and it would present an uphill task for them, or for Tinubu, to convince the electorate that they have anything better to offer than what they have served already.

It is expected that in the coming months, the APC and Tinubu, its presidential candidate, as well as their army of campaign strategists and foot soldiers would carefully navigate the minefield that has been laid out herewith. Like all other contending parties, their work is well cut out for them. Bearing in mind that they succeeded in pulling off one miracle in 2015, who is to say they cannot achieve another for Tinubu in 2023?

#voxpopuli
#presidentialelectionpulse2023

APC is evil and no miracle works with evil people

With all pleasure

The support in 2023 was massive

Buhari with all the cult followers that he had had to go with a Christian,talk less of one directionless sick old man
Make we dey watch

Christians will now shun you and your Evil party (APC) because this has turned to an "ISLAMIC PROJECT".

Your evil party (APC) were slimy enough to announce it on sunday afternoon after the church services. Between now and Sunday you guys will have your replies. Nigeria Christians and the church will reply appropriately.

Party Chairman
Flag bearer
Running mate. same religion



Below is the balanced Choice.