HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are fooling yourself, kwankwanso has come out to deny he said he will step down for tinubu, if it's that you are hoping on, you don't know Northerners.Why do you still keep talking about him stepping down when he has denied he said it.Are you okay?

He said if he sees that he cannot get it but not now. Why will he step down for Atiku? An Atiku Presidency buries his chance of been President as they are both Northerners; A Tinubu Presidency offers a little hope especially since they have known each other for 30 years.

Half of NNPP are men who are Asiwaju's men at heart and its obvious it will not take them 24hrs to switch allegience. Kwankwaso himself knows. Shekarau is an Asiwaju man also.

senseless post

be obidient

Siwel25:


He said if he sees that he cannot get it but not now. Why will he step down for Atiku? An Atiku Presidency buries his chance of been President as they are both Northerners; A Tinubu Presidency offers a little hope especially since they have known each other for 30 years.

Half of NNPP are men who are Asiwaju's men at heart and its obvious it will not take them 24hrs to switch allegience. Kwankwaso himself knows. Shekarau is an Asiwaju man also.

Everybody is an asiwaju man according to tinubu urchins lol.Kwankwanso is on the ballot already, he is not stepping down for any southerner. Northerners would always support their own, all those men you called are even Atiku men.

Drfernandez:
You are naive politically and otherwise. Your little brain did not tell you that unlike the 1993 election where the two-party system was in place and was a two-horse race between NRC and SDP, which largely contributed to SDP victory, that it is not the same in the 2023 election.

The fact that you failed to tell yourself the truth that Atiku would do better than Tinubu in the entire North using your sentimental analogy, shows that you are completely naive.

The election will be Peter Obi's to lose, so he is winning by all indices available so far

All over the world where there are three main contenders vying for the post, two parties merge to fight off the other party. France and Germany are good examples. In Japan prior to the recent elections, the ruling LDP went into a coalition with Komeito to ensure she maintains dominance of the parliamentary house. Both parties share similar ideologies compared to the Democratic Party of Japan which was later dissolved due to internal crises.

However, one DrFernandez believes a party that doesn't have one member in a state house of assembly or the entire NASS or a governor will defeat the ruling party and main opposition in the presidential election.

Not only are you Peter Obi's supporters hilariously stoopid but also half-witted, ignorant, arrogant and annoyingly obstinate!

Eddygourdo:
We will accept it like that if it happens. we both will have to. you will lose and we will lose. we will both suffer and gnash our teeth. so if you want to stand a chance at winning , tell Atiku to do the right thing and step down for Obi. It is the turn of the SOUTH. That cannot be hammered enough

No problem then. To slam heads five times daily shouldn't be a difficult task to do.

P.S. It's not my sons who will do that neither will it be my daughters who will tie the hijab but when it happens to every political ignoramus, I'll be here to remind you people and gloat as well.

Gerrard59:
The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

This your article shows you don't understand mathematics and analysis at all.
Tinubu should be the one begging Peter obi to step down.
As it stands the presidential elections have been divided into 2 different sets of people, Obi(young people and Christians) Atiku, kwankwanso and Tinubu (old people and muslims).
The north is now divided into Atiku and Tinubu
The south is Obi. The truth is Tinubu can't win 50% of the north. And he(tinubu) can't win without the south.
Worst case they scenario, they will be a run off.

Gerrard59:


All over the world where there are three main contenders vying for the post, two parties merge to fight off the other party. France and Germany are good examples. In Japan prior to the recent elections, the ruling LDP went into a coalition with Komeito to ensure she maintains dominance of the parliamentary house. Both parties share similar ideologies compared to the Democratic Party of Japan which was later dissolved due to internal crises.

However, one DrFernandez believes a party that doesn't have one member in a state house of assembly or the entire NASS or a governor will defeat the ruling party and main opposition in the presidential election.

Not only are you Peter Obi's supporters hilariously stoopid but also half-witted, ignorant, arrogant and annoyingly obstinate!

How an idi ot like you with nothing going for you thinks that you are in a better position to know about the political terrain of the country than a former senator shows the level of your idio cy.

Gerrard59:


Jonathan in 2015 and Atiku in 2019. How does that concern the topic?

Just trying to understand what may have driven your thought process on the matter!

You Dey mind them? That is now their new strategy. Even if PO steps down, it won’t change anything cos people who are motivated to vote now won’t bother on Election Day.You Dey mind them? That is now their new strategy. Even if PO steps down, it won’t change anything cos people who are motivated to vote now won’t bother on Election Day....

Gerrard59:


No problem then. To slam heads five times daily shouldn't be a difficult task to do.

P.S. It's not my sons who will do that neither will it be my daughters who will tie the hijab but when it happens to every political ignoramus, I'll be here to remind you people and gloat as well.

Neither will it be my sons or daughters. but we will either both lose or PDP does the right thing it should have done earlier and collapse his structure for peter obi. Mind you we don't need it. your political calculations are based on 2015 and 2019. 2023 will be a presidential election you haven't seen before, events heading towards campaign will teach you that. we will not reject two Muslims for one Muslim, we don't want a Muslim. A Muslim is just finishing his 8years tenure, it is the time for a Christian southerner. no bending of the truth will change things and since you all said we are small and inconsequential anyway, we will meet at the polls. simple sir.

PS: if your group knew how to play politics , they should have smelt the coffee and not made all the political gaffes they made. PDP will come third or fourth in the elections.

Gerrard59:


This is the argument you Peter Obi's supporters made by demanding Kwankwaso step down for Peter Obi and become PO's VP candidate. I saw that as a joke, which was one.

I have stated reasons geopolitical zone by zone by Peter Obi cannot win but if you believe he can, good for you people. Just don't come complaining when you have a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

Everyone go suffer together if Nigerians voted for another incompetent rogues in government as everybody is suffering under Buhari.Peter Obi must be in the ballot.

And Christians won't vote for Muslim candidates

Jking20:


Because Muslims won't vote for a Christian president.

The OP makes no damn sense. The youth of this country have wakened up. Atiku and Tinubu will share northern Muslim votes. Northern Muslim votes alone couldn't make Buhari president on three different occasions. 90% of the entire Northern and Southern Christian vote is for Peter Obi don't get it twisted.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Everybody is an asiwaju man according to tinubu urchins lol.Kwankwanso is on the ballot already, he is not stepping down for any southerner. Northerners would always support their own, all those men you called are even Atiku men.

You do not know that Jibrin is an Asiwaju man? Shekarau was at Bourdillon to assure Asiwaju that he only has a problem with Ganduje and not him. Which other candidate have u heard Kwankwaso speak favorably about? He doesnt believe Atiku is more popular than himself in the North cos he defeated him at the 2014 APC Primaries. He even claimed that he gave Atiku most of his Northern votes in 2019.

There is nothing Atiku offers him and deep within him, he knows it is the turn of the South. Just wait and see what will happen. All these Northern solidarity is bullshit! The Northern Governors stood with Asiwaju and Ganduje has been more loyal than Tinubu's own kinsmen. I leave you to your beliefs but remember i told you!

.

People get time shaa. So you sat down for 20mins and wrote this rubbish. Nawa o

Agbado analysis..

Gerrard59:


That's not true. Atiku's VP candidate is a Christian. Those who will vote for Atiku have historically voted for the PDP. In my post on Yoruba Christians, he's likely to gain new voters from them (people who voted for the APC because of Yemi Osinbajo). The vast majority of Peter Obi's supporters are people who have always voted for the PDP, no previous voters from previous elections. Peter Obi has lost three geopolitical zones - South West, North West and North East. Technically, he has lost the north central and makes it worse for the PDP to gain votes there.

So, how he's going to win?

An Islamic preacher prior to when Shettima was chosen warned that APC shouldn't choose a Christian VP because if anything happens to Tinubu, the person takes over, and Northern Christians should never become the president. He also said Igbo man should never be allowed to become president. Is that not the reason they ganged up against Jonathan because they saw him as an Igbo man?

So, tell me how on earth is Peter Obi expected to win?

1.You made a lot of excellent points.

2.However, there is one thing ye did not take into account...Buhari is not on the ballot.

3.No Buhari...that means that votes in the North that went for Buhari would be split between PDP, APC, and NNPP (NNPP could potentially take Kano and Jigawa alone).

4.A lot depends on what the Buhari voting bloc do. If they choose to listen to Buhari, Tinubu has a chance. If not, then all bets are off.

5.Angry Christian voters could move to PDP and to a lesser extent LP.

I'm looking at a Obi-Atiku runoff after the main election does not produce a clear winner.

Shikamaru1:
From now till the end of the year, the media will be awash with write ups on why Obi should step down for Atiku, if he succumbs to the pressure of stepping down, his political career is dead. What is the difference between Atiku and Tinubu? If Atiku wins, after his 8 years tenure, the APC will field a Notherner as it's presidential flag bearer citing the same flimsy reason that 'a southerner can't win a National election without their support ' then the Nothern part of Nigeria will rule in perpetuity. Let everyone go to the ballot to test their popularity Next year, Obi should not step down for Atiku.

Well in 1999, no one thought that 2 yourbas alone would be running for the presidency...or that Obasanjo would turn out to be a super godfather of sorts...

Eight years is a long time.

Gerrard59:
The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

The reasons you adduced does not supersede the urgent need to rescue Nigeria. How about Atiku step down for Obi?.

Dear Reno/Op, Peter Obi is not stepping down for anyone having come this far, know this and know peace.
Regards

Gerrard59:


With who as the president if I may ask?

With Tinubu.

Can you image fulani should do another 8 years after Buhari because of your hatred for Tinubu, that hate will consume you, go and ask your parents.

Tinubu is next Nigeria president. You can go and hang yourself

cybersoldiers:

What if he wins?

Its only Yoruba's that tells you that Peter Obi will not win. Not Nigerians.

Ok. So sorry about that. 2023 is not too far

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are fooling yourself, kwankwanso has come out to deny he said he will step down for tinubu, if it's that you are hoping on, you don't know Northerners.Why do you still keep talking about him stepping down when he has denied he said it.Are you okay?

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/2023-if-i-cant-get-it-ill-recommend-tinubu-kwankwaso/

Where in the article did he deny such?

---

P.S. I just read Kwankwaso's statement, something I predicted he will do simply because he sees nothing wrong with Tinubu's choice of Shettima as VP candidate. Anyone outside the PDP and APC who sees nothing wrong with a Muslim-Muslim ticket will vote for Tinubu if push comes to shove. You people need to read a thing or two about Political Islam.

Gerrard59:


https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/2023-if-i-cant-get-it-ill-recommend-tinubu-kwankwaso/

Where in the article did he deny such?

---

P.S. I just read Kwankwaso's statement, something I predicted he will do simply because he sees nothing wrong with Tinubu's choice of Shettima as VP candidate. Anyone outside the PDP and APC who sees nothing wrong with a Muslim-Muslim ticket will vote for Tinubu if push comes to shove. You people need to read a thing or two about Political Islam.

So you haven't read the statement he released that he was misquoted?

Gerrard59:


Where did I state that Peter should step down for Tinubu? I don't want a Muslim-Muslim presidency and the ONLY way to avoid it is by ensuring Atiku wins. A back-to-back Fulani presidency is better than Muslim-Muslim presidency with the potential to be 24 uninterrupted years of Muslims being the president. Choose the lesser of both evils.

As a result of the civil war, Igbos have been relegated to the back seat of Nigerian politics, that's the reality. The closest Igbos came to the presidency was Jonathan's era, and you saw the attacks and back-biting he faced because some people saw him as an Igbo man. Yet people believe those people will now vote for an actual Igbo man? C'mon! Let's be realistic here.

Unless you want a Muslim-Muslim presidency, fine and good.

Guy, get it into your skull. Peter Obi is not stepping down. If it warrants muslim-muslim to rule us, no p. Let it be a wake up call to the christians. Get that!

Gerrard59:


Fine but please don't come complaining when you have a Muslim-Muslim presidency, and expectedly 24 years of Muslims being the president.

Also, I'm curious, why do you believe Peter Obi can win the election?

Why are you WAILING?
I thought we all agreed that Peter Obi doesn't have structure and will even struggle to win in his home state, because there's no labour presence there.....
If notherners won't vote Obi because he is Christian and Igbo, don't you see that as an advantage since e sure for you.
Una no dey tire?
Peter Obi is not going to STEP DOWN FOR Atiku.

Risentouch:


Why are you WAILING?
I thought we all agreed that Peter Obi doesn't have structure and will even struggle to win in his home state, because there's no labour presence there.....
If notherners won't vote Obi because he is Christian and Igbo, don't you see that as an advantage since e sure for you.
Una no dey tire?
Peter Obi is not going to STEP DOWN FOR Atiku.

Shey na to slam heads five times daily, wear three-quarter shorts and tie hijab?

E no go hard na.

OP na serious Olodo...Even Buhari lost 3 times in a row with all the backings of almost all the Moslem faithfuls...Una just dey yarn trash

Slynation:
OP na serious Olodo...Even Buhari lost 3 times in a row with all the backings of almost all the Moslem faithfuls...Una just dey yarn trash

When he won in 2015, why did that happen? He merged with the opposition (ACN), parts of APGA and a substantial part of PDP, but Slynation believes Peter Obi can do it alone even when his party has no seat in all HoAs and the NASS or governor as a party member.

I will be here to gloat at you people.

Gerrard59:


When he won in 2015, why did that happen? He merged with the opposition (ACN), parts of APGA and a substantial part of PDP, but Slynation believes Peter Obi can do it alone even when his party has no seat in all HoAs and the NASS or governor as a party member.

I will be here to gloat at you people.

lemme tell you our Structure...

No: 1...The millions that has given up on Nigeria

No: 2...The Jobless Youths that has lost their bearings in Nigeria

No: 3...The students that has lost hopes in Education

No: 4...The millions of citizens that truly wants this country to move forward

No: 5...The millions of Nigerians who are tired of APC/PDP shananigans

These are some of our structure and A man whom the masses has chosen definitely has the highest structure...!! How many times have you seen people donating stuff for a presidential candidate...

Endsarz protests actually thought me one thing, that Nigerians are nice people whom most are captives of hardship...Imagine the love among Nigerians irrespective of tribe and region, people who lost their phones were called and given back their phone and so many rare things happening until it was hijacked, the love was just massive and with good leadership, we will surely go back to that era...!!

Whether you like it or not, these Election is almost swinging to a contest between the Moslems and the Christians, But unfortunately it's 3 Moslems against 1 Christian...But Only Gerrard59 and Asiwaju Peoples Congress still has hope that a Moslem will still win even at that...!!

We all know the plan is too disenfranchised the Southern region, it happened last time when in a Polling unit of 200 voters INEC will only come with 50 materials...

But you know what, whichever way, God always has a way of safeguarding his people, like Buhari actually made more people millionaires while those that carried his matter on their head were losing their jobs with reckless abandon...!!

So if una like, you all can install another Mannequin in Aso rock...