vicdom:

The guy is making me laugh. Tinubu lost immediately he lost in his region. You can't win presidency and without winning the region where you come from. Go back and look at the history. All the presidents in the past since 1999 have always won in their region, then nc is usually the battle field, who ever wins it, wins the president.

U dey mind him...highest tinubu is seeing in SW is 60%...so he should better defeat Atiku with a very large margin, if he will even think of having a chance in 2023...

truthsayer009:
Is this too early to say It is Impossible?

I was having a conversation with someone this morning & we were looking at the Osun polls. Judging from the Osun state elections, it shows that APC still has strong votes of 375,027 in total, while Adeleke's PDP had 403,371 votes. Most of this same people, if not all will still vote for APC in the coming general elections, meanwhile the other votes might be scattered in the other parties including Labour Party. Yussuff Lasun, the LP candidate, came a distant fifth with 2,729 votes, representing about 0.34 per cent of the total valid votes, according to the results released by INEC.

APC lost on 100,000+ votes, meanwhile Bola Tinubu has decided to go with all Muslim-Muslim ticket, against all odds, Ignoring Northern Youths warnings.

Two Questions:

1/ Realistically, can Bola Tinubu actually win this Election, and on what metrics?

2/ Does the Osun State outcome by Labour Party a verdict on presidential ambition, is there any hope?

Atiku of PDP will surely be voted by the North, so no questions asked about this.

osun youth that destroy Tinubu billboard will not vote Tinubu many of us Yoruba will not vote Tinubu

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

Any spoiler NNPP will play in the north affect Tinubu more than Atiku, Tinubu cannot win up to 5 state in the north

vicdom:

Tinubu will win in North?? kai! This is the most ridiculous statement I have ever read online.
Did you know that since 1999, no body has ever become president without winning his zone and nc??
Okay, let's start from OBJ 1999; he won in the south (lost sw, won both ss and se), Obj 2003: won in the south, won in the NC and lost nw and ne to Buhari), Yaradua 2007; won in the north and won in the south; Gej 2011; won in the south, won in the nc, lost ne and nw to Buhari, Ge 2015j; won in south (lost in sw, won in the ss and se), Gej lost not because of sw, but because he lost in the nc he used to win to Buhari. Buhari 2015; won in the north, won in the sw. Buhari 2019; won in the north, won in the sw.
Atiku just need to win the north, win in the ss, he becomes the president.
Can we stake a bet of 200k??, Atiku will win majority votes in the northern region?? he can easily get 25% or even more in the se. Guy, you need to travel to the north oooo. Or always check BBC housa page for political talks, you will understand what's going on. I base in Lokoja and I have plenty hausa working with us in Obajana, Dangote cement, that's where I work. They hate Tinubu like mad ooo.

For me,the nortch central is not always decisive.they share votes.what gave buhari victory is the massive votes in the nw/ne and victory in sw.he has alwats gotten 40% in nc.he just needed that spread down south and he got it with sw...all tinubu needs is to win sw and win ne/nw nartowly.nc will be divided.
You cannot use a handful of northerners in kogi to determine.I met a lot of northerners who preferred atiku in 2019...do you know that gej got more votes in the north than atiku? Do you know that atiku won only northern states dominated by Christians in 2019 except Adamawa and the Christian area there gave him bloc votes? He lost woefully in Muslim areas? What does this mean? They hate atiku.they love fanatics,atiku is not a fanatic.Even yaradua divided the north,a whole atiku couldn't win north east..

Okoroawusa:
If he can't "realistically" win, Igbos turned OBIdient slaves would have shifted their focus on something else but for the fact that they are on his case 24/7 means that he can "realistically" win and they are afraid of that outcome.

Sometimes people are afraid of what they can't conquer.

That's the truth cos all the noise about the MM ticket validates the fear of Tinubu

ASAPFERG1:
on Twitter abi?

I don't use twitter.

Olaoluwa122:
Lmao...see this boy oh...tinubu will win North narrowly, wetin you dey smoke??...as it stand today 70% of SW vote is not sure for your boss...so he should better beat atiku in the North with a large margin or else...A tun lule!!!!...No chance fir your boss...not with A.P.C dismay performance....and again remind me P.D.P presidential election result in rivers state again?? Make I check something...man??

In rivers it was 1.4 million to 69,000.in 2019 it was 450,000 to 150,000.two LGAs that apc won were stepped down if not it would have exceeded 350,000.nowthat wike dey neutral and Peter is threatening imagine the results...all tinubu needs is a narrow win up north and south west.peter can only win se.se will either go to peter or atiku narrowly.tinubu is sure of three zones,others arent

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

this one is from Cameroon

Joey4321:


I don't use twitter.

ok facebook

I really do not see how Tinubu can win if this election is free and fair.

In a free and fair election, Tinubu cannot even win Lagos state and I am damn sure about this after the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Tinubu cannot win southwest flawlessly, he doesn’t have the charisma to do that. He’s irritating southwest Christians and because of his antecedents of godfatherism and fraud.

Tinubu’s hope is in the north and I doubt if he can win Atiku in the core northern states.

He will not win any local government in south south and southeast.

Tinubu will no win abuja, Taraba, Plateau and Benue and Saraki is ready to give him a run for PDP in kwara state. So tell me how he wants to win this election?

garfield1:


In rivers it was 1.4 million to 69,000.in 2019 it was 450,000 to 150,000.two LGAs that apc won were stepped down if not it would have exceeded 350,000.nowthat wike dey neutral and Peter is threatening imagine the results...all tinubu needs is a narrow win up north and south west.peter can only win se.se will either go to peter or atiku narrowly.tinubu is sure of three zones,others arent

so according to this P.D.P win with a margin of 70% to 30%, now imagine...A.P.C with a M.M ticket...with almost all Big wigs defecting....Man its not a rocket science for you to know that there is nothing for A.P.C in Rivers state...even labour has more chance than them in Rivers.

Olaoluwa122:
so according to this P.D.P win with a margin of 70% to 30%, now imagine...A.P.C with a M.M ticket...with almost all Big wigs defecting....Man its not a rocket science for you to know that there is nothing for A.P.C in Rivers state...even labour has more chance than them in Rivers.

I am from ss so leave that argument.in ss,they don't vote.vote doesn't country,party structure and rigging bring votes.people hardly vote so you see Muslim Muslim won't have any impact.apc is very strong in rivers,apc has gradually captured many LGAs in rivers.in 2019,it was only amechi that supported buhari but now magnus and amechi with wike neutral.who will rig for labour party?

garfield1:


I am from ss so leave that argument.in ss,they don't vote.vote doesn't country,party structure and rigging bring votes.people hardly vote so you see Muslim Muslim won't have any impact.apc is very strong in rivers,apc has gradually captured many LGAs in rivers.in 2019,it was only amechi that supported buhari but now magnus and amechi with wike neutral.who will rig for labour party?

Mention the local government that A.P.C captured in 2019...you said more than this in Osun election...and we all know the result...(Your Oga state oh)

garfield1:


In rivers it was 1.4 million to 69,000.in 2019 it was 450,000 to 150,000.two LGAs that apc won were stepped down if not it would have exceeded 350,000.nowthat wike dey neutral and Peter is threatening imagine the results...all tinubu needs is a narrow win up north and south west.peter can only win se.se will either go to peter or atiku narrowly.tinubu is sure of three zones,others arent

Kai!! Which three zones is Tinubu sure of winning, can you mention them?? Lol.... sw, ??

Olaoluwa122:
Mention the local government that A.P.C captured in 2019...you said more than this in Osun election...and we all know the result...(Your Oga state oh)

Oga,osun is 50 50.it has alwats been a difficult place to win.that is why I never opened any thread about osun,I wasn't sure.I was scared of adeleke not PDP.any party adeleke was,he would still have won.... Free and fair elections take place in sw and nc,it is difficult to rig there.nw/ne and ss/se are alwats rigged....

In 2019,buhari won abua odual LGA with 42,0000 to 10,000.he won opobo by 1k,won asari toru and akuku toru lgas. he lost in ogoni because magnus was neutral.magus won his senate seat in 2016 rerun by 125,000 to 25000.polling units were kept in his house..in delta,ugborodo ward gave buhari 24,000 votes.no LGA in ss/se gave buhari this kind of votes.only few lgas in sw gave that kind of votes.it shows that apc owns that ward so if you do free and fair polls, they will still rig but they need to win to increase.they will simply go and bring the voters to the polling unit and accredit but not vote.if the accredited votes is 200,they will write apc 195 pdp 5...

vicdom:

Kai!! Which three zones is Tinubu sure of winning, can you mention them?? Lol.... sw, ??

My brother,do not he deceived by online noise.an average Nigerian is tribalistic.yiy saw what fayose said.theres no way atiku or obi will win tinubu in the west.even if its by 1 vote,tinubu will win.based on the strength of apc,they will still win nw/ne even if its narrowly.atiku can only win Adamawa, taraba narrowly.gombe is 50 50 same as bauchi but bauchi people are fanatic,they might just vote nnpp.yobe borno will be one way so tinubu wins ne aggregate.
Atiku will win sokoto narrowly.he night win kebbi narrowly.zamfara is tinubu,katsina too.kano is nnpp followed by tinubu.jigawa is tinubu.Kaduna will be divided so you see,its tinubu.

garfield1:


My brother,do not he deceived by online noise.an average Nigerian is tribalistic.yiy saw what fayose said.theres no way atiku or obi will win tinubu in the west.even if its by 1 vote,tinubu will win.based on the strength of apc,they will still win nw/ne even if its narrowly.atiku can only win Adamawa, taraba narrowly.gombe is 50 50 same as bauchi but bauchi people are fanatic,they might just vote nnpp.yobe borno will be one way so tinubu wins ne aggregate.
Atiku will win sokoto narrowly.he night win kebbi narrowly.zamfara is tinubu,katsina too.kano is nnpp followed by tinubu.jigawa is tinubu.Kaduna will be divided so you see,its tinubu.

SW is only sure for Tinubu now. I wish we could stake on bet on that. It's just like saying because there's PDP strong presence in the east means Atiku will win Obi in the east. Let me tell you something, this election will be largely be determined by ethnicity and religion. Atiku and Kwankwaso will overrun Tinubu in the North, ge won't even come close. it's just like saying because Osun and Oyo have PDP governors now means that Atiku will win there, no matter what, Tinubu will win all the 6 SW states. Atiku will win the majority votes cast in the northern region. If you are so confident, let's stake 200k bet on that. If Tinubu wins Atiku in the North even if by 1 vote, you take the 200k, otherwise, I will take your 200k. APC thought that what happened in Kaduna governorship election 2019 when El rufai picked a Muslim deputy to whip the sentiment of religion. Muslims saw it as a religious contest, that's why majority of Muslims voted in his favor and he won. But it has appeared that what APC bargained before flying Muslim Muslim ticket is no happening. Most northern Muslims are still siding kwankwaso and Atiku.

IamAtikulate:

You are not wise.

Kwankwaso will be taking a bulk of old Buhari voters. He is not playing any spoiler to Atiku but to Buhari's 12 million voters.

You must be naive to think Tinubu will win Katsina and Zamfara. Those two states don't want to see APC today.

Buhari is currently the most hated president in the those state today. Travel, una no gree.

If you think Igala will vote for APC, then you are not wise.

Tinubu will not get any vote in SS with his Moslem Moslem VP.

The path is even clearer for Obi than Tinubu, a Yoruba fake Moslem.

Which one is "will not get any vote" ,I am voting apc

Throwback:



I'm aware of present anti-Tinubu propaganda on social media.

Wait till September, then you will know why Tinubu is a political genius, and why his opponents are wasting time with their social media clout.

He will vomit all the money he stole from lagos state treasury....Bode George

vicdom:

SW is only sure for Tinubu now. I wish we could stake on bet on that. It's just like saying because there's PDP strong presence in the east means Atiku will win Obi in the east. Let me tell you something, this election will be largely be determined by ethnicity and religion. Atiku and Kwankwaso will overrun Tinubu in the North, ge won't even come close. it's just like saying because Osun and Oyo have PDP governors now means that Atiku will win there, no matter what, Tinubu will win all the 6 SW states. Atiku will win the majority votes cast in the northern region. If you are so confident, let's stake 200k bet on that. If Tinubu wins Atiku in the North even if by 1 vote, you take the 200k, otherwise, I will take your 200k. APC thought that what happened in Kaduna governorship election 2019 when El rufai picked a Muslim deputy to whip the sentiment of religion. Muslims saw it as a religious contest, that's why majority of Muslims voted in his favor and he won. But it has appeared that what APC bargained before flying Muslim Muslim ticket is no happening. Most northern Muslims are still siding kwankwaso and Atiku.

I hope you won't cry when you find out after the elections that atiku can't win convincingly in the North. Na rigging una go shout at the end of the day

vicdom:

SW is only sure for Tinubu now. I wish we could stake on bet on that. It's just like saying because there's PDP strong presence in the east means Atiku will win Obi in the east. Let me tell you something, this election will be largely be determined by ethnicity and religion. Atiku and Kwankwaso will overrun Tinubu in the North, ge won't even come close. it's just like saying because Osun and Oyo have PDP governors now means that Atiku will win there, no matter what, Tinubu will win all the 6 SW states. Atiku will win the majority votes cast in the northern region. If you are so confident, let's stake 200k bet on that. If Tinubu wins Atiku in the North even if by 1 vote, you take the 200k, otherwise, I will take your 200k. APC thought that what happened in Kaduna governorship election 2019 when El rufai picked a Muslim deputy to whip the sentiment of religion. Muslims saw it as a religious contest, that's why majority of Muslims voted in his favor and he won. But it has appeared that what APC bargained before flying Muslim Muslim ticket is no happening. Most northern Muslims are still siding kwankwaso and Atiku.

Bros you get money oh, 200k for online argument?

Everybody knows Atiku & Kwankwanso will sweep the north in votes, no need to argue that one. Even in my post, I already stated it.

garfield1:


He will.buhari got it.the aoc structure in ss and parts of sw is intimidating..obi can only get 25% in north central...if kwankwaso win nw,tinubu will come second.

Bro......that might not happen. I actually also thought of it(Tinubu's 25%).
But with everything that has happened. Am not sure he will see it. The fake bishops shenanigans hit the nail on the head. He can't win anywhere with a landslide. He can't get 25% from the south east or the south south. An average Nigerian is anti-APC. How does he want to win this election?

JoeNL22:

Bro......that might not happen. I actually also thought of it(Tinubu's 25%).
But with everything that has happened. Am not sure he will see it. The fake bishops shenanigans hit the nail on the head. He can't win anywhere with a landslide. He can't get 25% from the south east or the south south. An average Nigerian is anti-APC. How does he want to win this election?

Oga,people will forget about that before September.February is very far away.most voters are at the rural areas and won't see most of these media stunts.do not be deceived or swayed by anything in the media.what gave adeleke victory is the family name and good deeds among the grassroots...most people in 2019 were against apc.an average southerner is against apc not an average northerner.most of those against apc will divide votes and some of them may later be swayed to vote apc

garfield1:


Oga,people will forget about that before September.February is very far away.most voters are at the rural areas and won't see most of these media stunts.do not be deceived or swayed by anything in the media.what gave adeleke victory is the family name and good deeds among the grassroots...most people in 2019 were against apc.an average southerner is against apc not an average northerner.most of those against apc will divide votes and some of them may later be swayed to vote apc

I don't agree with your statement.

People now vote personalities over party politics.
We saw that in Osun (they voted adeleke not pdp).
We saw that in Ekiti (they voted segun oni not sdp).
The youths are for obi, the Christian are for obi.
We just need to continue the momentum, that's all

JoeNL22:

I don't agree with your statement.

People now vote personalities over party politics.
We saw that in Osun (they voted adeleke not pdp).
We saw that in Ekiti (they voted segun oni not sdp).
The youths are for obi, the Christian are for obi.
We just need to continue the momentum, that's all

True people vote personalities but not so in the rural areas.obi will fail woefully in the north...what is good about adeleke personality

garfield1:


True people vote personalities but not so in the rural areas.obi will fail woefully in the north...what is good about adeleke personality

Osun state has rural areas too. Yet they voted adeleke over oyetola. Secondly, the Osun people did not vote adeleke because of his goodness, they voted him because they are tired of oyetola and want a breath of fresh air for their economy. And what happened in Osun will definitely happen in February. If you think obi is all about social media. Then that is a lie, people are spending their time, energy, money and resources available to them to campaign for obi and to send a message to people that we don't the same set of recycled old fools that call themselves politicians to rule over us again. Obi started from a protest-to-a-force-to-a-movement-now-to-a-revolution!.
#GetYourPvc

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

The issue is how does Tinubu win Kebbi, Nasarawa, Kaduna? How does he get 25% in any SS/SE state? Yes including Edo how does he get 25%, how does he get 25% in plateau, Taraba & maybe Benue?

Hon. Shetima and Gov. Zulum, you professed to love Christians in Borno, tell the world why there is no CRK in Primary Schools but you sponsor IRK with the state money? Tell the world why you did not pick christians as your deputies? Tell the world why you deny the Southern Borno Tertiary instirutions apart from the missionary college of Education, what have you done in Southern Borno? Tell the world your stand on the recent demolished EYN Church that led to Luka's death? Zulum tell us why you imposed a muslim chairman on Chibok that is 90% christians? How many of your commisioners are christians? Is the religious fanatism you are bringing to Nigeria? Is this sectionalism, tribalism, nepotism you are bringing to the Nigerians?

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

Calculation of a drunkard. Tinubu will be crushed in 5 of the 6 geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Bookmark this comment

Throwback:



I'm aware of present anti-Tinubu propaganda on social media.

Wait till September, then you will know why Tinubu is a political genius, and why his opponents are wasting time with their social media clout.

Political genius that was beaten in his home state ? You're a big joker. Osun case is a tip of what's coming to hit him next year February

garfield1:


Kai,where have you guys been na? All these obi urchins have overran nairaland with their emotionally driven,amateurish analysis

You guys supporting Tinubu need to go for mental evaluation. It's suicidal to hand over a country in coma to a sick old man like Tinubu. Buhari's tenure will be child's play compared to what Tinubu will put Nigerians through if elected.