leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

Thank you for your contribution .The winter is possibly an OBidient man who is appealing to his fellow Igbos. A true Nigerian like you will understand the strength of the North on election matters.Any party that will win must woo North and get votes there. The North will also look at a candidate to follow if he will promote their interests . It will also interest you that it will take us many years before we produce a female president in Nigeria. This is the power of the north, the heartbeat of Nigerian politics!

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

northern Christian from Nasarrawa, gombe, jos, Borno and Kaduna are voting for Peter Obi. My fear is the presence of PDP in South South and South but this time around we would shock that useless party. as for South West forget the hype about Peter Obi, most of dem would end up selling their vote for Tinubu on election day.

1914

kolafolabi:
You joined a bus in 2015, the driver took you to 1984. In 2019, you refused to come down from the bus and the driver took you to 1960. Now the driver is tired but want his conductor to continue driving? You still no wan come down abi? Where do you think the conductor is going?

Ovisko:
There's massive rigging and underage voting in the north while in the south you have voters apathy. You will be surprised by the number of votes south will produce in the coming elections. North only has more land mass not population

. That what people don't know
No where in the world that dessert has more population than where there's water

samsononyilo:



If nasarawa should vote along religion line, then it would be 55% for Christians and 45% for Muslims.. stop saying rubbish, Christians up note lack unity, because the southern Christians lack unity too, if we should vote along religious line, then no Muslim will ever rule Nigeria again, because is only in the north west that Muslims dominate..



Which part of the Jos are you talking about?
The Jos north that lalong gave them the chairmanship position? Oga in a free and fair election, no hausa man can become a chairman is Jos north

when was the last time a Christian ruled nasarawa again?pls remind me

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

Your analysis makes a lot of sense

APCnaPDP:
You are not correct. North Carries the bulk of votes in Nigeria and would need only one region in the south to win. If Atiku for instance, wins NE and NW, he will need only SS or SE to win.

With our guy Peter Obi on the ballot, Atiku cannot win SE.

jumper524:
in Nigeria election, 4 regions are mostly dormant. SS SE, NW, NE.
There are two regions deviod of nepotism. SW and NC.
Now go back and check.
Jonathan won all these regions.
Also note 2011 cases of rigging was overly possible cos of no card readers hence the reason states like anambra were all having million votes.

. Nice. I wonder why people uses election prior to 2015 in analysis as if they're not aware of mass rigging and indiscriminate manipulation of numbers during obj times.

To me the start of credible election starts from 2015 during introduction of card readers though not 100% but still far better and that's from where we can analyze any voting strength though I still think the underage menace from the north is another discrediting factors which should be addressed

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

The voter apathy in the South has traditionally been a self-inflicted handicap that fuels the myth of the "numbers" of the North. Despite this "advantage" and the shenanigans of underaged voting, ballot box stuffing, and the influx of elements from across the border during elections, the North has still never been able to win any elections on their own.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]

You must be living in Congo to have written this delusion!
North has 19 states and the requisite to win Presidential election is to win atleast 24 states across the 6 geopolitical zones with minimum of 25% of the casted votes.
Dwelling in the result analysis of elections conducted between 2003-2011 is nonsensical to the highest order, those were years when elections used to be pronounced when voters were on queue voting.
It is clear to everyone who are fanatics in the polity of Nigeria. Recent outrage and open campaign in religious centres has shown the fanaticism in most Nigerian Christians. In the so called middlebelt, Nasarawa, Niger, kwara and Kogi out of the six states in the zone are Muslims majority but one stupid person living in delusion is trying to use religion in the polity just for his hatred for Muslims.
How will you react of JNI asked all Muslims to do the barbaric campaign Obi supporters are doing?
Many of those Christians dominated states will deeply disappoint you because they'll surely vote for PDP especially those in SS and NC.
This fanaticism is too much and will come with serious consequences because Atiku or Tinubu will win this election!

barbstee:
No one region can make the presidency by themselves and this is what the Easterners seems not to understand you can't keep hating people and expect them to turn around and support you during election.
It doesn't work that way.

That said there is no doubt in the fact that the North has the number and the needed unity for elections unlike the south


BAT 2023

You joined a bus in 2015, the driver took you to 1984. In 2019, you refused to come down from the bus and the driver took you to 1960. Now the driver is tired but want his conductor to continue driving? You still no wan come down abi? Where do you think the conductor is going?

This is the reason why there is boko haram to destroyed those states or areas that tilt to south in voting pattern.

VladimirPutiin:


Tinubu alignment with the north Made Buhari President. And he did that because of 2023.
Anyone who comfortably wins the NC, SS/SE and some votes from the SW will win the election. Obi should focus more on the NC and SW. the NE/NW is no go area. The SS/SE is already in the bag for him.

Mark this bro.

Obi will get atleast 5 million votes from these states:
1. Kaduna
2. Taraba
3. Adamawa
4. Bauchi
5. Gombe
6. Niger

These are states in the NE and NW, but I tell you from someone who base in the NE that obi will do well there. The Christians in those states who make up 40 percent of voters, save for Taraba where Christians voters is 90 percent see 2023 election as a do or die, they will never vote for a Muslim.

efepeppereski:
I am happy this is coming to light. I keep telling people that we give too much credit to the core North. Those guys cannot decide who will be the president of Nigeria all by themselves. Anybody that can win SE, SW, SS, and NC can become president of Nigeria without NW n NE. I am still surprised why the middle belt align with the core North without benefiting anything politically.

The simple issue is that the South does not votes due to voter's apathy. Not the South, even Christains. If everyone votes according to their faith, Peter Obi will win this election before 12:00 o clock on election day. There are about 10 states in the SS n SE that are nearly 100 per cent Christains. In fact, there are more christain majority states in Nigeria than Muslim majority states. There is no single state in Nigeria without indigenous christain population. I hope this Muslim Muslim ticket will galvanize Christains to come n vote in 2023. This Muslim Muslim ticket is a slap on the face of christains in Nigeria. APC took the christain community for granted because christains don't vote. They will never try fielding a christain christain ticket because of that is a sure guarantee for losing an election.

So, you are trying to say if everyone vote according to their faith, Peter Obi will win? I hope you know that there are more muslims than christians in Nigeria.

CSTRR:

It is not like that.

I meant that the NC will weigh their options and realise that their bread is buttered with the south as a whole.

How was their bread buttered when Obasanjo and Jonathan were in Power?

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

you missed it,in this election the northern Christian will not vote Atiku and Tinubu and the southern Christians will not vote them neither so Obi can win this election

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

South only needs middle belt +Taraba and Kaduna. Even Niger can go down.

Jerrydox:
This post was initially written by Itodo Pope on his Facebook page.

You posted it here without acknowledging the writer.

I'm sure he will acknowledge that. We need to be wise.

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

South west is always the reason for south disunity.. They are the reason why Buhari became president and was re elected for second term. It's a shame

femianski:

So, you are trying to say if everyone vote according to their faith, Peter Obi will win? I hope you know that there are more muslims than christians in Nigeria.

The muslim vote will split. Christains are solidly behind the sole Christain candidate this time especially when Buhari a Northern fulani muslim just finished 8 unbroken years in power.

Omicron007:

. The North definitely does not have more numbers than the South. They have traditionally been more civically inclined, with practically everyone of voting age getting registered and turning up for elections.

You spoke well until the bolded...After that truer words continued

anonimi:


This is the bottom-line of the ofege analysis to make the fraudulent scammer president next year, as Thiefnuibu made Bubu in 2015 with his own fake sainthood that has been revealed to be the worst corrupt administration since 1960

Comprehension is very challenging to an APC supporter.
There's a difference between "the only place I have a house in Nigeria is in onisha, and the only place I have a house is in onisha".
Go and ask mechanic to remove that sorduss in your brain.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

the north isn't as homogenous as you would think also there are regions in the north that don't vote like the typical northerner like the middle belt states of plateau, benue, kwara even taraba and even in the core north also there is a hugh christian population like in kaduna, sokoto, gombe, and bauchi, what I'm saying is that if the south is united for a candidate and the north is also united for another candidate, it would be easier for the South to break their ranks, than for the north to break the south's rank, we can easily poke the middle belt or the core north christian community, while for them even the Yoruba Muslim community does not even have that much affinity or trust for their northern Muslim counterpart, compare to the north christian/middle belt community level of trust and affinity for the South.

Thank you bro.
Am a Benue man,
We are midbelt.

We are NOT NORTH.

NORTH Only care about themselves and religious fanatism

Children of the middle belt,chose wisely.

Am fully OBIDIENT.

femianski:

So, you are trying to say if everyone vote according to their faith, Peter Obi will win? I hope you know that there are more muslims than christians in Nigeria.

This is the biggest fraud in Nigeria. It is a big fat lie.

Change10000:
1914

barbstee:
No one region can make the presidency by themselves and this is what the Easterners seems not to understand you can't keep hating people and expect them to turn around and support you during election.
It doesn't work that way.

That said there is no doubt in the fact that the North has the number and the needed unity for elections unlike the south


BAT 2023

East hate nobody it's you guys that hate east.we voted massively for south west Obasanjo. Same for SS jonathan.same for nw yaradua and NE atiku. So what else do you need from igbos .stop your hate and vote Peter obi. OBi lol kan.

ozo13:
how south wan take unite like this.if u r talking about regional unity give it to the north.
Jus looknat the way they stepped down for each oda in the jus concluded primaries.can u say the same abt the south.even south east alone had like 3/4 candidates under APC in the last primaries

How many south west get under APC primaries.even wetin agbado camp they have 3 candidates.so leave igbos alone.

3ple9iner:
calculate the number of voters in the North and that in the South, you would get your answer.

A candidate can get 1m+ in the north and his closest rival could get 800k+ or 1m too.

In the south only few states can vote of this.


Also in the North, there is usually no voter apathy like in the south, though I believe it would change in this election.

It won't change o. my uncle in Enugu is 38 years yet he has never had a voters card and he still doesn't have yet he's not bothered about it. I'm in my mid 20s and I had my voters card when I clocked 18. It pains me seeing southerners at the age of 30 still looking for how to get voters card.

3ple9iner:
calculate the number of voters in the North and that in the South, you would get your answer.

A candidate can get 1m+ in the north and his closest rival could get 800k+ or 1m too.

In the south only few states can vote of this.


Also in the North, there is usually no voter apathy like in the south, though I believe it would change in this election.

I can bet u no state will produce 1m plus votes this election besides Lagos and Kano. 40% of those million votes churn out by borno and kastina are gotten by ballot stuffing and rigging. With this BVAC any results more than the number of accredited voters in a poling unit becomes automatically cancelled. This election will reveal the true voting strength of each regions. It's time for contestants to start basing campaign on issues rather than on ethnicity.

Perfectly said OP.