Evryone thinks Obi would negatively affect Atiku more than BAT, in the scenario where OBI dosent narrowly wins. lets have a review again.

OBI emergence will pull SS and SE from equation, making tinubu to be left with SW against a Northerner(NE,NW,NC)

trusting Northerners to vote him. becasue of only religious extremism (MM), is not enough.
and SW(Being headquarters of christian worship centres), may not give him any hypothetical block votes of like 95% or so, and that wont defeat Northern votes.

BAT straying away from southern votes to depend on loyalty from Northerners against thier own, is a really big mistake, tinubu cant pull the ABIOLA spirit, Nigeria has gotten more complex than that.

with obi or without, I think TINUBU is really disadvantaged, depending on how strong OBI movements are, BAT may end up as a close third,(because SS and SE Votes are like 3x SW votes, with Obi strong presence amongst Christian yorubas.

what do you guys think.

Tinubu.,...
He might even be down for awhile..

Mkpurumiri induced thread
Haffaze is out of dis.

Obi is not destroying anything

But if anything na tinubu chances he dey kill because atikulators are on ground not on social media

If not for obidents keyboard warriors, tinubu urchins for use propaganda finish us

Now their major weapon to package is finished they are left to campaign with apc failure

This your analysis ehn...

Lol

That is if Obi doesn't step down before January 2023

Kwankwaso is doing a great job quietly. He may have more votes than Obi. Kwankwaso will likely do more damage to BAT and Atiku than Obi..........

because the National Assembly elections are happening on thesame day as presidential election I think APC and PDP will do very well....not because of Tinubu or Atiku but because local politicians will be telling their folks to vote for them.

Obi will surely hurt PDP in the SE and maybe parts of SS

If not for greed one of them should step down for the other

Atiku Abubukar is the favourite to win this election because of his popularity, financial strength and party structure. Although his former boss called him a lot of unprintable names, he has national appeal.

I have noticed that those who promote Tinubu are mostly Yorubas. You rarely see ordinary Nigerians from other tribes promoting his candidature. Like I always say, the winner of this election is someone who can win votes outside his region.

Lastly, Peter Obi has the least prospect of winning this election because he is new and running on a party without a structure. However, he has has high future prospects because he represents a paradigm shift from the old way of doing things. Yes, I will vote for him as a way of supporting him.

But I won't completely rule out a runoff in 2023.

Una go soon Sabi say Buhari no be Jonathan, APC no be PDP.. and Jagaban never lost an election in his life definitely not when he is finally in the ruling party

Soon when the warchest is unleashed, fear go paralyse una... Una go wail biterly

Una go write Petition tire, US embassy go trash many of una letters, Democrats go look away, Obasanjo sef and other Generals go look on


.

The SS and SE would have voted PDP if Obi was not in the equation,but as it stands,Obi will lock down the SE and get a substantial vote from the SS, especially if PDP is unable to resolve the Wikke and Atiku feud

The SW will give Obi some votes no doubt but BAT will win his geo political zone,the danger however is that ,the SW does not give block votes,so BAT must rely on votes from North and that is where he will have to contend with northers like Atiku and Kwankwaso who are banking on the northern votes.

Obi' emergence is affecting everything and everyone in 2023 election,it is affecting Atiku in the South,and this will make Atiku concentrate more on northern votes and unfortunately that is where BAT is also relying on,so you can see how Obi is directly and indirectly affecting BAT

And you want us to patronize you while you are every thread supporting obituary

Do you understand what's call Business strategy at all

Jennifer663:
Tinubu.,...
He might even be down for awhile..

TheNiceGuy:
And you want us to patronize you while you are every thread supporting obituary

Do you understand what's call Business strategy at all

Criticism have nothing to do with business.
Learn to act straightforward...
I do what is right and if it is negative to you..
You keep shut and mind your business.

You need more to learn.

Jennifer663:

Criticism have nothing to do with business.
Learn to act straightforward...
I do what is right and if it is negative to you..
You keep shut and mind your business.

From my Analysis, Obi will affect both contenders, Obi have got south south and south East for him alone and will take majority of the votes coming from north central states. Obi has a popularity among middle belt states and northern Christians.

It will be slug in Lagos between Obi and Tinubu. Unfortunately, PDP has no brag for Lagos as it stands now. Atiku maybe be the greatest looser of Obi’s candidacy. He has no southern state to brag with… not even Delta where his running mate is from.

This race as of today is between Tinubu and Obi.

Kano votes will be split between Atiku and Tinubu, Kwankwanso go put sand sand for their garri…. making the block vote useless.

Obi’s major problem will be to garner 25% in some northern states.

To achieve that, he needs to really do a lot of work in getting his campaigns in local languages and radios and discredit a lot of lies against him in the north. (Especially the killing of some Hausas in Onitsha in 2016, an incident that happened before he became governor)

He really need to work in the core north on radio stations.

We want the next president of Nigeria to be frugal and strongly willed to say no to statusquo.

Tinubu’s major setback is his age, Muslim Muslim ticket, and drug conviction baggage . What he has going for him is money and incumbency!

Atiku is practically not keenly being promoted by southern leaders of PDP. The internal wranglings in PDP will be his undoing if care is not taken.

Obi has a new type of message in Nigerian politics and it’s going for him.

Runoff:

If there happens to be no clear winner,
I see Atiku and Obi collapsing their structures to defeat Tinubu. That is what will happen if there is a runoff between Tinubu and either Atiku or Obi.

If it happens between Obi and Atiku. I see southern voters of Tinubu majorly going to Obi and northern voters going to Atiku. Tinubu may not openly declare support for anyone but may secretly work for Atiku.

SmartPolician:
Atiku Abubukar is the favourite to win this election because of his popularity, financial strength and party structure. Although his former boss called him a lot of unprintable names, he has national appeal.

I have noticed that those who promote Tinubu are mostly Yorubas. You rarely see ordinary Nigerians from other tribes promoting his candidature. Like I always say, the winner of this election is someone who can win votes outside his region.

Lastly, Peter Obi has the least prospect of winning this election because he is new and running on a party without a structure. However, he has has high future prospects because he represents a paradigm shift from the old way of doing things. Yes, I will vote for him as a way of supporting him.

But I won't completely rule out a runoff in 2023.

mostly yoruba Muslims, we yoruba christains are voting PO. Peter obi will be the winner, go and write down today's date.

Obi's emergence is dealing a deadly blow on both candidates/parties i.e. the ruling party and former main opposition.

Without Obi, Atiku would have won both SE and SS while Tinubu will still get significant votes but that's lost now because Obi is likely to get 90% in the SE and 75% in SS.

Without Obi, SW would have voted for Tinubu massively, thereby giving him a landslide in SW but that one too is lost as Tinubu would find it difficult winning SW by more than 50%.

Same is also applicable in the NC which Obi now leads.

However, Tinubu will suffer it more because even though Atiku lost SE and SS, he has regained NW as a compensation.

Here is the likely outcome: Obi wins, Atiku comes a close second while Tinubu a distant third.

Moh247:




Una go soon Sabi say Buhari no be Jonathan, APC no be PDP.. and Jagaban never lost an election in his life definitely not when he is finally in the ruling party

Soon when the warchest is unleashed, fear go paralyse una... Una go wail biterly

Una go write Petition tire, US embassy go trash many of una letters, Democrats go look away, Obasanjo sef and other Generals go look on


.

Trash!!!

Buhari never really endorsed Tinubu, Northern governors led by El Rufai armtwisted him.

Buhari has next to nothing to show as legacy of his 8 years in power and that reality has downed on him. Right now, he is trying to use electoral reforms as his legacy. Same way Jonathan used that phone call to give himself credibility.

Buhari would be glad to throw Tinubu under the bus if that's what will give him some credibility. For you to believe Buhari would stick out his neck for Tinubu shows you're delusional.

brown3:
mostly yoruba Muslims, we yoruba christains are voting PO. Peter obi will be the winner, go and write down today's date.

Who are u to speak for Yoruba Christians? It is only a bastard that will vote Obi against Tinubu in Yoruba land. When Obi people are dying for him in Igbo land.

Thanos5555:
Evryone thinks Obi would negatively affect Atiku more than BAT, in the scenario where OBI dosent narrowly wins. lets have a review again.

OBI emergence will pull SS and SE from equation, making tinubu to be left with SW against a Northerner(NE,NW,NC)

trusting Northerners to vote him. becasue of only religious extremism (MM), is not enough.
and SW(Being headquarters of christian worship centres), may not give him any hypothetical block votes of like 95% or so, and that wont defeat Northern votes.

BAT straying away from southern votes to depend on loyalty from Northerners against thier own, is a really big mistake, tinubu cant pull the ABIOLA spirit, Nigeria has gotten more complex than that.

with obi or without, I think TINUBU is really disadvantaged, depending on how strong OBI movements are, BAT may end up as a close third,(because SS and SE Votes are like 3x SW votes, with Obi strong presence amongst Christian yorubas.

what do you guys think.

I think that Peter Obi's votes are going to hurt Tinubu the most. I believe by now, Tinubu knows that he has zero chance of winning in the South East and South South.

Tinubu will have to fight for votes in the North and Atiku is not going to give him an easy time

basybasy:

Who are u to speak for Yoruba Christians? It is only a bastard that will vote Obi against Tinubu in Yoruba land. When Obi people are dying for him in Igbo land.

we yoruba christains want a better Nigeria and it's only Peter obi can guarantee a better Nigeria, we yoruba christains are not bigot.

Please point of correction, in Yoruba land both Muslim and christian are one because we marry one another. I am a christian and my elder brother is a Muslim. Trust me, we are going to vote for Tinubu because he has capacity to deliver. When you hear we Yoruba christian would not vote for Muslim -Muslim candidate, that writer is not Yoruba person because Yorubas are too intelligent to involve in religion sentiment.

Mkpurumiri induced threadHaffaze is out of dis

Peter Obi will win SE and SS and a good percentage from SW especially Christians due to Muslim- Muslim ticket.

Atiku will win the North and may also get good votes from SS, SW and SE.

Summary: Obi might edge Atiku and win.
Tinubu need magic votes from the North to stand a chance

Tinubu greatest mistake is rellying entirely on so called heavyweights from the north. They can switch to Atiku at the last minute, Obi is loved by educated and internet savvy youths which are predominantly Southerners and middle belters so if the north goes with Atiku Tinubu has nothing to fall back in the south

Me and my households are Christian and Muslim but we our votes is for Tinubu...

If Atiku win is I'll not be sad bcs I really want him to sell NNPC and other oil well in the South so that everyone will dey alright bf Nigeria disintegrate

snapshot:
The SS and SE would have voted PDP if Obi was not in the equation,but as it stands,Obi will lock down the SE and get a substantial vote from the SS, especially if PDP is unable to resolve the Wikke and Atiku feud

The SW will give Obi some votes no doubt but BAT will win his geo political zone,the danger however is that ,the SW does not give block votes,so BAT must rely on votes from North and that is where he will have to contend with northers like Atiku and Kwankwaso who are banking on the northern votes.

Obi' emergence is affecting everything and everyone in 2023 election,it is affecting Atiku in the South,and this will make Atiku concentrate more on northern votes and unfortunately that is where BAT is also relying on,so you can see how Obi is directly and indirectly affecting BAT

@bolded That's when our son is not on the ballot as standard candidate!

We gave block votes to Awolowo, Abiola, Falae and Obasanjo(2nd term)

Piggiddiootts amaka

EndsarsReloaded:
Obi's emergence is dealing a deadly blow on both candidates/parties i.e. the ruling party and former main opposition.

Without Obi, Atiku would have won both SE and SS while Tinubu will still get significant votes but that's lost now because Obi is likely to get 90% in the SE and 75% in SS.

Without Obi, SW would have voted for Tinubu massively, thereby giving him a landslide in SW but that one too is lost as Tinubu would find it difficult winning SW by more than 50%.

Same is also applicable in the NC which Obi now leads.

However, Tinubu will suffer it more because even though Atiku lost SE and SS, he has regained NW as a compensation.

Here is the likely outcome: Obi wins, Atiku comes a close second while Tinubu a distant third.

100% Correct.

brown3:
we yoruba christains want a better Nigeria and it's only Peter obi can guarantee a better Nigeria, we yoruba christains are not bigot.

Werey. Iran Baba e wo ni Yoruba? Iwo omo ajokuta mo'mi. Omo irankiran.

Truthisunique2:
Obi is not destroying anything

But if anything na tinubu chances he dey kill because atikulators are on ground not on social media

If not for obidents keyboard warriors, tinubu urchins for use propaganda finish us

Now their major weapon to package is finished they are left to campaign with apc failure

many of u are just arm chair analysts

Peter obi moved from pdp to lp meaning no matter how small he will take some pdp members always with him

Pdp stronghold is d south south n south east which obi will have a huge part of it meaning he has reduced atiku votes so in all these he will b reducing atiku vote n it will b an automatic advantage to tinubu

Owopariola001:


Werey. Iran Baba e wo ni Yoruba? Iwo omo ajokuta mo'mi. Omo irankiran.

I can't come down to your level, yoruba christains are well trained with respect.

BATified2023:
many of u are just arm chair analysts

Peter obi moved from pdp to lp meaning no matter how small he will take some pdp members always with him

Pdp stronghold is d south south n south east which obi will have a huge part of it meaning he has reduced atiku votes so in all these he will b reducing atiku vote n it will b an automatic advantage to tinubu

every region is home to PDP

So obi movement is inconsequential, so long as PDP is guaranteed 40% in the entire south

Apc won't get what PDP gets in SS/SE

LP won't get what PDP gets in SW

South is even out, we head to atiku North to teach una music

Btw the so called obi movement is still speculation and emotions on Twitter, no poll has been done to show LP have followers, the closest we saw was Osun election which obi got himself involved in

Ipob Terrorist

Who dash you Yoruba

brown3:
I can't come down to your level, yoruba christains are well trained with respect.