Waiting for more floods
By Ogechi Ekeanyanwu
August 6, 2011 09:26PM



Bose Akinwunmi, a roadside corn seller, was angry at her friend who did not call her to find out why she was not at her stall the Monday after. But she finally narrated her ordeal to her friend, “The flood almost carried my child,” she said. “Me and my children stayed on the bed that was already soaked, to add to this pain, we did not have food in the house; we nearly died of hunger. If it was not the garri and rain water we used to soak it, the rain did not let us see food to eat.” Lisa Ikpefan had nothing but bad words for her landlord whom she blamed for not taking care of his compound to avert the flood from entering her home. “Other houses in this area (Okoya Thomas in Surulere) were saved from the flood. But this house was bad; we slept on our beds with the water moving around us. “We have lost all our electronics, worth over N500,000 and our neighbours also complained about the something,” she said.

When the rain of Sunday, July 10 started, there was no inkling that it would last the whole day, let alone leave so much pain and anguish in its wake. As the rains came in torrents, numerous lives were lost, while some properties were washed away and others damaged beyond repair. For days after, the media were awash with tales of woes and lamentations from the victims of the disaster caused by the heavy rain fall in some parts of the country. As it appeared, Lagos was hit hardest. The relatives of the people who lost their lives could hardly contain their tears; it was no less agonising for many who lost property, especially those who were rendered homeless.

More rains to come

“The house is dried now, but we are not ready to do anything about our lost property, since we don’t know when or if this kind of rain will come again,” Ms Ikpefan added, with trepidation in her tone.

This uncertainty currently plagues the mind of so many Nigerians, especially in the Southwest. It would be recalled that earlier in the year, the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NIMET) warned that 2011 would witness torrential rain falls, but no one predicted the heavy rainfall on July 10.

Since that heavy down pour, not much has been seen again in terms of rainfall, but the Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research, Lagos, has advised Nigerians to brace up and be on the alert for more of such occurrence. “The exact amount of the rain that fell on Sunday was meant for one month, but we had it in just a day. There was no way anyone would have prepared for such amount of rainfall,” the assistant director of the institute, Regina Folorunsho, said. But according to the NIMET, this will not happen until after the “August Break”.

The break in rainfall, according C.U. Okoloye, the deputy general manager of the Central Forecast Office of the Nigerian Metrological Agency, is called the “little dry season.” “It usually occurs between July and August when you have negative anomalies that are observed in rainfall,” Mr Okoloye said. He said that this is more pronounced in the Southwest of Nigeria and occurs as a result of “a drop in static energy over the mid-trosphere”.

“The little dry season or the “August Break” which occurs from July to August is characterised by a rain seizure, cold winds, reduced surface temperature, precipitation or rainfall in form of drizzle. This explains the colder and windier days and nights witnessed in some South South states.

In the western states, rains are not as frequent and when they come, they come in form of drizzles,” Mr Okuloye explained. He added that in the Southwest, the break in rainfall for 2011 started around the third week of July and will continue through the last week in August.

“You cannot observe these types of weather in central and northern Nigeria. What we have in these places are sporadic rainfalls and thunderstorms. But the situation will be reversed towards the last week of August, where the southern parts will witness heavy rainfalls,” Mr Okuloye said.

Mr Okuloye puts it succintly: “The flooding is not over yet”, adding that the south western states and eastern states would face the torrents and storms that will accompany the rain. The meteorologist said that in states like Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Bayelsa, a condition called orographic effect will lead to “continuous slight rain” prevailing for the period of the “August Break”. But at the end of the break, Mr Okuloye warned, “The floods will come back”.


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