Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Olukayode Joshua Lasisi
Sep 6, 2022
Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds
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BusinessDay’s analysis of Google trends data on search interest show that the three major presidential candidates for the 2023 election have yet to expand beyond their strongholds.

The data were collated from August 28 to September 4, 2022.

Google trend is an essential tool in predicting the outcomes of elections.

In the recent Kenyan presidential election, the average share of search interest for the winner (William Ruto) was 1,329 as against 324 for Raila Odinga, the runner-up.

Similarly, data gleaned from Google trends show that the winner of the Osun State election, Ademola Adeleke, had a far higher average share of search interest than the runner-up, Adeboyega Oyetola.

According to BusinessDay’s analysis of the data, Atiku Abubakar, the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, remains a dominant figure in the North, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress holds sway in the South-West, and Peter Obi of Labour Party is prominent in the South-East and the South-South.

Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Tinubu got an average of 20 percent of the search interest across all regions.

On a regional basis, Atiku dominated the North-West and North-East; Obi, the South-South and South-East; and Tinubu, the South-West and North-Central.

Obi’s influence is not as vibrant in the North as it is in the South-East. The average search interest in Obi is highest in Plateau, Nasarawa, and Benue.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People Party, is struggling to gain influence across all regions. His influence, according to average search interest, is highest in the region where he was once governor: North-West.

Google trend analysis by voting blocs: Northern Alliance, Bible Belt, and the Rockies

The Northern Alliance has the country’s most active voters and comprises 11 northern states (Gombe, Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Yobe, Borno) and one south-western state (Osun). Their loyalty has been to the PDP.

These states have been dominated by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, although the presidential candidate of the APC, Tinubu, gained ground in Osun.

Search intrest for Kwankwaso

The Bible Belt, another PDP loyalist bloc, which has the highest number of voters but low voter turnout is made up of 17 states drawn from the South-East, South-South, and eastern North-Central.

Analysis by BusinessDay shows that this loyalty is wavering as the Labour Party presidential candidate, Obi, is dominating across all states in the South-South and South-Eastern region while the North-Central is being controlled by Tinubu.

The Rockies are Nigeria’s most unpredictable voters and the tie-breakers, with the lowest voter turnout of the three blocs. These states include Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, and Ekiti, which have been dominated by Tinubu, except Kaduna and Niger, which have been held down by Atiku.

Obi’s chance remains bright with SE/SS plus Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue as this data clearly illustrates.

If you add the huge votes he will get in States like Taraba, Kaduna and FCT, which he’s expected to win, then you know his chances are high.

If was a betting man, will stake my cash on Atiku, because of the humongous votes that is guaranteed for him in the NE/NW.

If Tinubu manages to get a chunk of Atikus votes in the North, then Peter Obi will be sworn in as President next year.

Cool

His party has no structure, 2031 is still a big hope for him

Yes oh. Obi for president

That 55% for Peter Obi @ South East is totally wrong.

Peter Obi will not get less 90% votes from South East. That's the realities on ground.

Chuksmemgbe:
Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Olukayode Joshua Lasisi
Sep 6, 2022
Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds
Share
BusinessDay’s analysis of Google trends data on search interest show that the three major presidential candidates for the 2023 election have yet to expand beyond their strongholds.

The data were collated from August 28 to September 4, 2022.

Google trend is an essential tool in predicting the outcomes of elections.

In the recent Kenyan presidential election, the average share of search interest for the winner (William Ruto) was 1,329 as against 324 for Raila Odinga, the runner-up.

Similarly, data gleaned from Google trends show that the winner of the Osun State election, Ademola Adeleke, had a far higher average share of search interest than the runner-up, Adeboyega Oyetola.

According to BusinessDay’s analysis of the data, Atiku Abubakar, the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, remains a dominant figure in the North, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress holds sway in the South-West, and Peter Obi of Labour Party is prominent in the South-East and the South-South.

Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Tinubu got an average of 20 percent of the search interest across all regions.

On a regional basis, Atiku dominated the North-West and North-East; Obi, the South-South and South-East; and Tinubu, the South-West and North-Central.

Obi’s influence is not as vibrant in the North as it is in the South-East. The average search interest in Obi is highest in Plateau, Nasarawa, and Benue.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People Party, is struggling to gain influence across all regions. His influence, according to average search interest, is highest in the region where he was once governor: North-West.

Google trend analysis by voting blocs: Northern Alliance, Bible Belt, and the Rockies

The Northern Alliance has the country’s most active voters and comprises 11 northern states (Gombe, Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Yobe, Borno) and one south-western state (Osun). Their loyalty has been to the PDP.

These states have been dominated by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, although the presidential candidate of the APC, Tinubu, gained ground in Osun.

Search intrest for Kwankwaso

The Bible Belt, another PDP loyalist bloc, which has the highest number of voters but low voter turnout is made up of 17 states drawn from the South-East, South-South, and eastern North-Central.

Analysis by BusinessDay shows that this loyalty is wavering as the Labour Party presidential candidate, Obi, is dominating across all states in the South-South and South-Eastern region while the North-Central is being controlled by Tinubu.

The Rockies are Nigeria’s most unpredictable voters and the tie-breakers, with the lowest voter turnout of the three blocs. These states include Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, and Ekiti, which have been dominated by Tinubu, except Kaduna and Niger, which have been held down by Atiku.

The sum of Percentage for south west, south east & north west exceed 100. I guess there is some error somewhere.

The hand writing is very clear.

But some sets cannot read it well nor comprehend. They will rather call it jaga jaga handwriting.

Let's all be feigning it's all online till 2023. Online will turn reality

Shiver me some timber!!!!

Chuksmemgbe:
Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Olukayode Joshua Lasisi
Sep 6, 2022
Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds
Share
BusinessDay’s analysis of Google trends data on search interest show that the three major presidential candidates for the 2023 election have yet to expand beyond their strongholds.

The data were collated from August 28 to September 4, 2022.

Google trend is an essential tool in predicting the outcomes of elections.

In the recent Kenyan presidential election, the average share of search interest for the winner (William Ruto) was 1,329 as against 324 for Raila Odinga, the runner-up.

Similarly, data gleaned from Google trends show that the winner of the Osun State election, Ademola Adeleke, had a far higher average share of search interest than the runner-up, Adeboyega Oyetola.

According to BusinessDay’s analysis of the data, Atiku Abubakar, the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, remains a dominant figure in the North, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress holds sway in the South-West, and Peter Obi of Labour Party is prominent in the South-East and the South-South.

Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Tinubu got an average of 20 percent of the search interest across all regions.

On a regional basis, Atiku dominated the North-West and North-East; Obi, the South-South and South-East; and Tinubu, the South-West and North-Central.

Obi’s influence is not as vibrant in the North as it is in the South-East. The average search interest in Obi is highest in Plateau, Nasarawa, and Benue.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People Party, is struggling to gain influence across all regions. His influence, according to average search interest, is highest in the region where he was once governor: North-West.

Google trend analysis by voting blocs: Northern Alliance, Bible Belt, and the Rockies

The Northern Alliance has the country’s most active voters and comprises 11 northern states (Gombe, Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Yobe, Borno) and one south-western state (Osun). Their loyalty has been to the PDP.

These states have been dominated by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, although the presidential candidate of the APC, Tinubu, gained ground in Osun.

Search intrest for Kwankwaso

The Bible Belt, another PDP loyalist bloc, which has the highest number of voters but low voter turnout is made up of 17 states drawn from the South-East, South-South, and eastern North-Central.

Analysis by BusinessDay shows that this loyalty is wavering as the Labour Party presidential candidate, Obi, is dominating across all states in the South-South and South-Eastern region while the North-Central is being controlled by Tinubu.

The Rockies are Nigeria’s most unpredictable voters and the tie-breakers, with the lowest voter turnout of the three blocs. These states include Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, and Ekiti, which have been dominated by Tinubu, except Kaduna and Niger, which have been held down by Atiku.

so u igbos now regard Allah abi because it’s election time?
I guess it’s election time so Mohammed is no longer a pedophile?

I know that moniker madmohamed will have switch to an alternate n start hailing d same Mohammed he once described as mad cos it’s election time

U igbos think u are wise,u hate people for complete 7 years n d moment u realise it’s election time u want to start forming love

So Nigeria is no longer a zoo?
Yorubas too are no longer sophisticated morons?
Northerners are no longer gworo chewing bastards?

alsudan:
Obi’s chance remains bright with SE/SS plus Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue as this data clearly illustrates.

If you add the huge votes he will get in States like Taraba, Kaduna and FCT, which he’s expected to win, then you know his chances are high.

If was a betting man, will stake my cash on Atiku, because of the humongous votes that is guaranteed for him in the NE/NW.

If Tinubu manages to get a chunk of Atikus votes in the North, then Peter Obi will be sworn in as President next year.

The election is atiku to lose yes I know that
But Obi chance of winning is hinged on two factors
One ...him being able to get 25% in all southern states
Two.....tinubu good performance in the core north

If those factors happen start ordering Champaign obi has won

BATified2023:
so u igbos now regard Allah abi because it’s election time?
I guess it’s election time so Mohammed is no longer a pedophile?

I know that moniker madmohamed will have switch to an alternate n start hailing d same Mohammed he once described as mad cos it’s election time

U igbos think u are wise,u hate people for complete 7 years n d moment u realise it’s election time u want to start forming love

So Nigeria is no longer a zoo?
Yorubas too are no longer sophisticated morons?
Northerners are no longer gworo chewing bastards?

you are a mischief maker,

mrvitalis:

The election is atiku to lose yes I know that
But Obi chance of winning is hinged on two factors
One ...him being able to get 25% in all southern states
Two.....tinubu good performance in the core north

If those factors happen start ordering Champaign obi has won

if tinubu gives atiku a good fight in the north, and obi manages to get good results in North Central and north west, your guess is as good as mine

PeterObi4LP:
You shouldn't have revealed this. Is too early. Peter the Rock will shock both PDP and APC when result will be announced. Obi will surely win inshallah

they cannot stop a moving train

I don't really care. This civilization is corrupt. No matter who drives the bus, the bus is faulty itself.

I am here waiting for The Unity to bring about a New and better Era.

The earth needs to be saved ASAP!

Yes, you are still a sophisticated m... and owes us an apology for all the lies you told about buhari the mennaquine and the role tinubuthe druggie played in that lies.

Mohammed has not stopped being whom he is. You are very silly for trying to use religion to mask your foolish MM ticket and fanning your religious card thinking it will favour you

If anyone hates it is you Yoruba that hates Igbos, we supported obj was there all these nonsense and urchins like you do not exist. Why is it you tifnubu urchins loathe Igbo presidency? Even after being president and vice. How are you better than Igbos? You open alot of fake accounts just to push your narrative like this one

BATified2023:
so u igbos now regard Allah abi because it’s election time?
I guess it’s election time so Mohammed is no longer a pedophile?

I know that moniker madmohamed will have switch to an alternate n start hailing d same Mohammed he once described as mad cos it’s election time

U igbos think u are wise,u hate people for complete 7 years n d moment u realise it’s election time u want to start forming love

So Nigeria is no longer a zoo?
Yorubas too are no longer sophisticated morons?
Northerners are no longer gworo chewing bastards?

alsudan:
Obi’s chance remains bright with SE/SS plus Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue as this data clearly illustrates.

If you add the huge votes he will get in States like Taraba, Kaduna and FCT, which he’s expected to win, then you know his chances are high.

If was a betting man, will stake my cash on Atiku, because of the humongous votes that is guaranteed for him in the NE/NW.

If Tinubu manages to get a chunk of Atikus votes in the North, then Peter Obi will be sworn in as President next year.

obi is expected to win kaduna? Are you for real

Sergio104:


The hand writing is very clear.

But some sets cannot read it well nor comprehend. They will rather call it jaga jaga handwriting.

Let's all be feigning it's all online till 2023. Online will turn reality

Shiver me some timber!!!!

And this is as campaigns are yet to begin oh. By the time it starts, this data will change.

BATified2023:
so u igbos now regard Allah abi because it’s election time?
I guess it’s election time so Mohammed is no longer a pedophile?

I know that moniker madmohamed will have switch to an alternate n start hailing d same Mohammed he once described as mad cos it’s election time

U igbos think u are wise,u hate people for complete 7 years n d moment u realise it’s election time u want to start forming love

So Nigeria is no longer a zoo?
Yorubas too are no longer sophisticated morons?
Northerners are no longer gworo chewing bastards?

Stale lines *yawns*

NaijaRoyalty:


You're right my brother

Peter obi stands a better chance than other contestants
He has already secured south east and south south and middle belts

He will get massive votes in Lagos and good number of votes in other south west states

Obi is penetrating Plateau and Nasarawa heavily . Obi is doing just great ..

Nlfpmod Mynd44

He should do some work in kogi, taraba and kaduna. Then also work in the SW too

I'm only seeing Obi vs Atiku rerun here.
Whoever APC supports in the rerun will be sworn in as President and commander in chief

Na wa o. Google search turn to voting strength. Congrats to the leading contender in advance.

quote author=Koralords post=116409090] obi is expected to win kaduna? Are you for real [/quote]

sunray:
Na wa o. Google search turn to voting strength. Congrats to the leading contender in advance.

quote author=Koralords post=116409090] obi is expected to win kaduna? Are you for real

This online tools was used in 2015 and 2019 election and it worked.
The black man only believes witchcraft prophecy but doesn't seem to understand the power of technological tools

Can someone do the CGP of each candidate and report back?