Donsheddy:



Full support ke...
Obi wasn't as popular as he is now then....
The person you can say gained the east. Full support was Jonathan.....
Some States he got 90% of votes casted....
2011...
Check 2015 too..
Even though the number of votes he got reduced from the east but it was more than 3 million

nevermind.
Its just february

Michelle70:
nevermind.
Its just february

N.W....

You cant tell me kwankwanso can't get up to 25% of votes casted here....
Which 75% will be left....
We know Atiku should do about 40-45% here of not more....
Which leaves 35%, oboi should get 5 to 10% here...

Apc should be left with 30%, could be less but thats the best they can do here....


So let's assume voting strength is 9m could be more.....

Nnpp 2.2m
Pdp 4 m
Apc 2.7.
Lp 900k

Loool....your analysis should be based on margin and not numbers. Imo alone almost canceled the entire SW margin they gave APC!

Norwichsailor:

You're being hopeful, but too much hope kills.
So pdp and apc governors will be drinking coffee and do nothing. FYI last election the SW gave the PDP more votes than the SE. With the impending voter apathy in the SE because of UGM lol the reality will hit u so hard you will cry. As for the SS my region PDP will win but with meagre margins

Michelle70:
nevermind.
Its just february

North East Atiku home region.....

You can't tell me atiku won't pull up about 50 to 60% here....

We have kwankwanso surely he will get up to 20 to 15 % Here or less.....

Obi should get 10% here if not less what is left...

Apc can scope the remaining 25% here....

PDP 55%
APC 25%
LP. 10%
NNPP 15%,..

VOTING STRENGTH 5.5 MILLION COULD BE LESS OR MORE...

PDP. 3M
Apc. 1.3M
Lp. 550k
Nnpp. 800k

If you're sure Obi is cutting Atikus vote, why are you not happy about it?

Michelle70:
Then u better throw ur weight on Atiku cos a vote for Obi is a vote wasted.
The part he is sure of winning doesnt have the voters strength to help him win the election.

I am also a card carrying member of APC and will vote APC both in state and Presidency.
If u didnt use emotions then u will know that Obi is just cutting Atiku's vote

North Central...

Battles ground for all three major parties we know that.....

Pdp 30%
Lp. 40%
Apc. 30%

Giving labour the edge here cus of obi growing popularity in that region.....
He should win it though it will be very very slight margin between all three parties.....

Apc Muslim ticket is the turn off..
Herdsmen ravaging the region.....
Etc....


Voting strength 6Million


Lp 2.4
Apc 1.8
Pdp 1.8

Donsheddy:


N.W....

You cant tell me kwankwanso can't get up to 25% of votes casted here....
Which 75% will be left....
We know Atiku should do about 40-45% here of not more....
Which leaves 35%, oboi should get 5 to 10% here...

Apc should be left with 30%, could be less but thats the best they can do here....


So let's assume voting strength is 9m could be more.....

Nnpp 2.2m
Pdp 4 m
Apc 2.7.
Lp 900k

Lets assume they get 2.7 and 4m.
Thats enough to cancel obi votes in the east

DMerciful:
If you're sure Obi is cutting Atikus vote, why are you not happy about it?

why should i be happy.
U think i am a Tinubu supporter?

South West....

We already know what's happening here....

Was suppose to be tinubu strong hold but events lately isn't playing good for him....

Lagos with the highest voting power is titling towards labour party.....

Tinubu should do good 45- 50% here.... That's if I'm not been cheerful enough....

Obi should do 30% here....

Pdp should do 20% here.....

Voting strength 6million


Apc. 3m
L.p 1.8M
Pdp 1.2m.

Do you know how many non Yorubas in SW? Probably 40%

garfield1:


Did oyedepo not campaign against buhari in2015 and 2019? If it did not affect buhari,how will it affect tinubu?
Oga,the sw has one tribe,the yorubas. The north east and north west has different tribes so all of them cannot see atiku as their son.moreover atiku is very liberal and is not a pure fulani....kwankwaso is even more appealing to them plus the Muslim Muslim ticket.

South south...
Where I am now.....

It's a battle between PdP and labour party.....

S.S votes according to S.E with obi increasing popularity....

And with Apc muslim ticket....
They will be lucky to get up 15% in this region...


L.p should do good 50 to 60% here....

Pdp will take the rest...


Voting strength 6million....

L.P 60%.
APC 15%
PDP 35%.

PDP IN HOUSE ISSUES AND WIKE NOT WORKING FOR THEM GIVES PDP OUT HERE.....


L.P. 3.6m
Apc. 900k
Pdp. 2.1 m

2015 and 2019 elections were rigged so those numbers esp from the North will not be so again with BVAS. Obi will win, those rigged numbers will no longer work

Michelle70:
Lets assume this skewed analysis stands.
Do u know this figures will make Obi loose?

Loosing NE and NW will automatically make u loose the election.
50% votes in NW alone will almost cancel out 90% in SS and SE combined.


Also
U feel Obi will get 60% in SS but u are giving 70% to APC and PDP in SW to share lolz

Donsheddy:
South south...
Where I am now.....

It's a battle between PdP and labour party.....

S.S votes according to S.E with obi increasing popularity....

And with Apc muslim ticket....
They will be lucky to get up 15% in this region...


L.p should do good 50 to 60% here....

Pdp will take the rest...


Voting strength 6million....

L.P 60%.
APC 15%
PDP 35%.

PDP IN HOUSE ISSUES AND WIKE NOT WORKING FOR THEM GIVES PDP OUT HERE.....


L.P. 3.6m
Apc. 900k
Pdp. 2.1 m

stop writing rubbish figures.
check how many votes each region normally produce.

S.E....

If we are to go by 2015 and 2011 data...
When Jonathan was loved...
The same can be said of obi...
I believe he would swoop Jonathans result....
South East having not taste presidency before I think they will vote just they voted in 2011....

L.p should do good 70 to 80% here... If not more

Pdp should do 20% here Apc will be happy enough to come out with 5% here......


L.p 80 %
Pdp 15%
Apc 5%


Voting strength 4.5 million could be more.....

L.p 3.6m
Pdp 670k
Apc. 220k

Michelle70:
stop writing rubbish figures.
check how many votes each region normally produce.

What's the average south south produced in 2011,2015 and 2019

Donsheddy:


What's the average south south produced in 2011,2015 and 2019

u might want to use google

If you're APC but supports Atiku, i don't understand you. If you care about a progressive Nigeria, support Obi and forget about wasting of votes. Obi will win

Michelle70:
why should i be happy.
U think i am a Tinubu supporter?

DMerciful:
If you're APC but supports Atiku, i don't understand you. If you care about a progressive Nigeria, support Obi and forget about wasting of votes. Obi will win

I am APC but do not support Tinubu

Total

Pdp 12.7m
Apc.. 9m
Lp. 12.8m
Nnpp... 3M....


This are just permutations....
With respect to percentage so you can see so far it's a game between PdP and lp

DMerciful:
If you're APC but supports Atiku, i don't understand you. If you care about a progressive Nigeria, support Obi and forget about wasting of votes. Obi will win

total votes in 2015 is about 29m
2019 is 27m

Michelle70:
u might want to use google

You can get for me....
I know it's between 5.5 million...
Factor in new registrations should give....

S.s had the highest with about 2m...
Sure more than. Half will come out to vote

All obi needs to do...
Is suck as much vote as he can from s.w and n.c and he's winning for sure....

He needs aggressive campaigns in this two regions...
Cus his message can be passed easily here..
Than core North's ..

Donsheddy:


You can get for me....
I know it's between 5.5 million...
Factor in new registrations should give....

S.s had the highest with about 2m...
Sure more than. Half will come out to vote

no region in the south in 2019 had 4million voters for both APC and PDP with SW being the highest with 3.8

meanwhile every region in North got 4m+

kokoA:
Obi should get north central hopefully, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa is almost in the bag. Niger, Kogi and Kwara I can't tell between APC and PDP.

obi can't win benue and kogi.
I

Michelle70:
no region in the south in 2019 had 4million voters for both APC and PDP with SW being the highest with 3.8

meanwhile every region in North got 4m+

Stop using 2019 when two northerners were contesting there was voters aparthy.....

Tell me how it was in 2015, and 2011...

When s.s and s.e came out with full chest for Jonathan just as they coming out now...
Youths actively involved....


We had two northerners on the ballot definitely the north will vote massively.....

Use an average of 2007,2011,2015 and 2019

DMerciful:
Do you know how many non Yorubas in SW? Probably 40%

Mostly in lagos.not all hate tinubu

Donsheddy:


Stop using 2019 when two northerners were contesting there was voters aparthy.....

Tell me how it was in 2015, and 2011...

When s.s and s.e came out with full chest for Jonathan just as they coming out now...
Youths actively involved....

in 2015, only Delta and Rivers gave Goodluck 1m+ each

The highest votes from SE region was Anambra which was 600k+
Enugu and Imo gave 500k+ each, the rest gave 300k.

If u look at this, ur total votes is just a lil above 2m votes

Michelle70:
in 2015, only Delta and Rivers gave Goodluck 1m+ each

The highest votes from SE region was Anambra which was 600k+
Enugu and Imo gave 500k+ each, the rest gave 300k.

If u look at this, ur total votes is just a lil above 2m votes

What was the total voted casted.....
What about 2011
And what s.s did you skip that...

Use my percentages for each region....
And run it by the total number of votes you think each region will cast then drop the total for each party here...

Cus I'm sure you don't have much issues or disagreement with how I shared the percentages right.....

Do it let's see how it plays out....
It's just permutations afterall
Not fact

Donsheddy:


What was the total voted casted.....
What about 2011
And what s.s did you skip that...

Use my percentages for each region....
And run it by the total number of votes you think each region will cast then drop the total for each party here...

Cus I'm sure you don't have much issues or disagreement with how I shared the percentages right.....

Do it let's see how it plays out....
It's just permutations afterall
Not fact

Goodnight.

Michelle70:
Goodnight.

Sweet dreams

The rate at which southerners will come out to vote on election day, and the amount of the newly registered voters will determine who will win 2023 Presidential.
That would be obi.