Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? - Politics - Nairaland
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| Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 8:33am On Aug 11, 2011 |
Could this be ACN's secret weapon come 2015, Tinubu recognising the anguish the Igbo nation has been through, having been 'EXCLUDED' and 'SIDELINED' from politics at the very top of any Political discuss that is "the head of state or Presidency" since the ceremonial stint of Zik and the lack of lustre, ineptitude and short-lived reign of Agui Ironsi. If ACN comes out with this master-stroke which would certainly unite votes in the SW/SE/Middle belts that could spell doom for the far North in the foreseeable future and PDP as a whole.  The pertinent question would be who would be Ngige's VP if this speculation were to be a reality?  Why I ask this question is, Ngige could have joined APGA or any other party and still won the senatorial contest why did he choose ACN. I maybe speculating and silavating but my instinct tells me something is in the offering come 2015.   |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Nobody: 8:56am On Aug 11, 2011 |
I swear, me too thinks Chris Ngige is coming in 2015 either as the prsident or vice president, I think if Tinubu goes, hcan't use Ngige for the vice because the North will kill than have 2 southerners as prez and vp, Owing to that fact, if Tinubu goes, he would use a vp from North and that may divide the votes in the South which will basically give North the votes they need. But with Ngige already in ACN as the Candidate, and Tinubu spear heading it, he is likely to have the W/S and E votes, even a couple in North like Kaduna Plateau, Kwara and Kogi, So Ngige and a Southern VP which will further strengthen the Southern votes and 4 Northern states to ACN's side, The result of this Election may be the result of the question we have always asked,(will Nigeria break up in 2015?) This may be the Scenerio Oju Yobor is planning just to break up Nigeria or this may not be his plan but a consideration he has as a possible result of the plan, Think about it, Ngige and Fashola, ACN, Yorubas already love Fashola, Igbos will most likely vote for Ngige, The middle belt is basically going to love it, The Hausa/Fulani Oligarchy won't want it, Is this Tinubu's plan? Southern Nigeria?  , The only reason I would love this is if True federalism is the only system allowed, and every one culturally, politically, economically and socially run their terrains, No platform for us to interfere with internal affairs which the platform that with which we can disrespect ourselves, Just each unit doing it's thing, Or Let my Yoruba people go!!, |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 9:05am On Aug 11, 2011 |
Tinubu would never go for Southern President and VP, by doing that you are effectively excluding the MiddleBelt from the equation. My haunch would be a Middlebelter would be the VP, that would broke the core North’s back-bone. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 9:23am On Aug 11, 2011 |
Even though Ngige/Fashola or Fashola/Ngige would have been desirable, It would be discriminatory to the North and it would mean the South are spoiling for a fight with the North and that includes Middlebelters. The last thing the South wants is to unruffled those loyal Middlebelters. But with Ngige / and a Middlebelter running, that combination would achieve Orkar’s plan in the ballot box. Fashola / a Middlebelter might exclude Igbo votes and those votes need to be on board that is why Ngige seems the perfect antidote having already been a staunch ACN member to win or force a win for the ACN come 2015. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by houvest: 1:03pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Please pass me the popcorn. I am in my watch mode. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by PointB: 2:05pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
KnowAll: Your analysis is apt. An ACN Ngige/Fashola ticket in 2015 would be a bad combination. However, fielding Ngige/NC ticket will actually sway opinions in the SE/NC. But whether it will be a masterstroke or not will depend on what candidates PDP churns out. If the PDP goes for N/SE, the SE will pitch their tents with the ACN Ngige/NC ticket. However, if PDP also goes for SE/N ticket, the SE will look up to Ohaneze Ndi Igbo for direction on which of the two SE candidates to support. My guess is that, they will likely lean toward the PDP SE/N candidate. If Rochas cross-carpets to PDP and wins nomination, all pre-calculation would have to be reworked! ACN waited for PDP to present their presidential candidates before presenting theirs in the last poll, a factor which worked against them in the last poll. However, if the ACN is serious about presenting a SE presidential candidate, their best chance of success lies in taking the bull by the horn by declaring candidates much earlier than PDP; blitzkrieg - quick and overwhelming campaign. Ohaneze would be forced to take a stand, if it appears that PDP is dilly-dallying. With ACN presenting a SE presidential candidate, the toga of yoruba party might actually starting eroding in the core south. Did I just Core-South (I mean SE/SS) My two kobo! |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 3:36pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Your analysis is apt. An ACN Ngige/Fashola ticket in 2015 would be a bad combination I did not say a Ngige/Fashola is a good combination, I said it is desirable, in any other sane democracy that would be the obvious choice but we are talking Naija here. You need to go and re-read my post again, I said an Ngige/NC or Middlebelter would be a winner anyday and anytime, because Ngige is already an inherent and staunch ACN man, the SW would vote for him if that is what Tinubu wants. I cannot not see the PDP presenting a SEasterner, they are ALREADY hell bent on fielding a NWestern even North Central is not good enough for those MOFOS. That would be their greatest undoing. Meanwhile in the absence of PDP presenting a SEASTERN, Rochas should just continue doing what he knows best for Imo State, he has 2 terms to turn Imo State into El-dorado, I think the Imo people would relish that than losing him to the uncertainty of PDP politricks. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by PointB: 3:50pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
KnowAll: Apt = appropriate, correct, befitting, suitable, etc In other words, I agreed with you. As per the bolded, nobody expected the PDP to field Jonathan, but they did. Don't underestimate those PDP guys. Failing to field a S/E candidate will surely spell the end of PDP, at least in the SE and parts of the SS. When that happens, APGA, and perhaps ACN will be standing by to cash in. As per Rochas continuing his job in Imo state, I can tell you for certain, that it's not about the party but the individual. Which party Rochas belongs to, does not stop him from doing what he knows best. Imo people would have voted him if he had contested as PDP or even ACN candidate! If PDP fails to pick as SE candidate, my bet is that APGA will field Rochas, if only to undermine PDP. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Nobody: 3:59pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Exactly folks, Ngige and maybe a vp from Kogi, That will be the winning ticket in a free and fair election, That's the only way ACN can actually win. If Tinubu isn't nursing the idea of running for president, I think Ngige is in ACN for a reason!! This could be the best thing ACN ever did to Unite the South. That would basically mean SE, SS, and W/ 4 to 5 states in the North would be voting for this, I also like the fact that ACN senators are asking for true federalism steadily, If ACN wins, we will get it!!! |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by gbogboti: 4:02pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
This is truly disturbing. Whenever the North wants huge votes, they will term the MIDDLE BELT as North. When the South wants the same, they would term MIDDLE BELT as MIDDLE BELT. After the voting, the North would tell the MIDDLE BELT that they are not Northerners. And the South would term the MIDDLE BELT as North. My question is who are the MIDDLE BELTERS? I will allow this to rest for today. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 4:28pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
PDP is very much producing the 2015 President whether ACN or APGA likes it or not. The Igbos would rather vote for Okorocha in unprecedented numbers dan Ngige. 2015 is a race for Fashola ACN, ROCHAS APGA and MARK PDP/ WITH OKONJO AS VP or VICE VERSA. The door is wide open in a free and fair election. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by aljharem3: 4:32pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
i dey laff  On a serious note and please 2015 is for the north although WE AS NIGERIANS should vote for the best candidate to win. Lets leave all this ethnic, zone etc out of it The north will produce a candidate David mark, and ma the best candidate win shikena |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 5:04pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
2015 is a race for Fashola ACN, ROCHAS APGA and MARK PDP/ WITH OKONJO AS VP or VICE VERSA. Fashola in ACN would limited to the SW, Rochas in APGA would probably have only one state and that is Imo state just like HOW RIbadu won in Oshun State. Mark PDP would definitely rig THE ELECTION and win especially if they have Okonjo as VP, but then SAMBO wants the Presidency Badly, so does all the Governors in the NE and NW, it would be hard and difficult for a Christian Northerner to emerge for the PDP. The only way Fashola would win is disgruntled elements in the NE and NW throwing their hat behind Fashola for being a Muslim, I don't see them ever supporting Mark and I don't see them supporting Rochas either. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 5:38pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
The problem with your calculation is that u forgot CPC in the North West and North East fielding their own Muslim candidate, or do u think Boko Haram are sleeping. In the North Yoruba muslims are not really taken seriously. PDP and Mark/Okonjo is the winner 2015. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Onlytruth(m): 5:53pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
For the first time in a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time, I think the poster is talking some serious sense. His points are logical and apt. The unspoken point behind his point is that PDP is only so powerful when the incumbent is contesting. But even if Jonathan is contesting, a Ngige/NC ACN ticket would be too powerful to overcome. The SE/SS(if Jonathan is not contesting), NC, and SW (if Tinubu delivers), would overwhelm a David Mark/Okonjo (Ndigbo would Not vote for a VP ticket if a son is a Presidential candidate) ticket because the core North would likely vote CPC or another core northerner. The Jonathan presidency dealt a serious blow to northern cohesion. So, in effect, a David Mark ticket would only win clearly in NC. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by KnowAll(m): 5:56pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
The problem with your calculation is that u forgot CPC in the North West and North East feilding their own Muslim candidate. In the North Yoruba muslims are not really taken seriously. PDP and Mark/Okonjo is the winner 2015. CPC is dead nobody would vote El-Rufai and I don't think anyone would vote Bakare, Buhari is the real deal in that party, No Buhari No CPC. I agree with u if Mark gets the Presidency ticket in PDP with Okonja he would nip it but I doubt if he would get the PDP ticket THUS. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 6:00pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
@ Onlytruth, U forgot Okorocha Apga in your equation. The truth is Ndiigbo will not vote ACN wen APGA is fielding a popular candidate such as Okorocha with the same North central vice from Kwara and a muslim. Add dat to your equation and it is clear David Mark is the winner 2015 becos he will gain votes in both east, west, north, south and overwhelmingly central. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Onlytruth(m): 6:21pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Posted by: Bliss4Lyfe
I did not forget about Okorocha. APGA will likely NOT field a candidate if ACN beats them in first giving the ticket to Ngige. Ohanaeze would not support two Igbo candidates. They would likely ask any other aspiring Igbo to drop the idea. This is when the new found cohesion in Igbo leadership comes to play. In fact if Ngige plays it well, Ohanaeze would also endorse him as soon as he gets that ticket. Believe me, David Mark is only popular among his fellow |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Rousseau: 6:31pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
This indeed would be a masterstroke. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 6:31pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
^^ @ Onlytruth, I guess dis might be the doom the American's prophesied, becos no way the North will fold their hands and allow the South to form a collision and stand back and watch an Igbo be President in 2015, not so. They will all rally behind David Mark and even the southwest voters will repeat their Ribadu episode with Ngige. I really don't know why igbo's never learn lessons. The only person guaranteed southwest vote under ACN is Fashola. Nw, Ne and Nc will rally behind David Mark the moment Ohanaeze makes such blunder. David Mark is our candidate like GEJ. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Nobody: 6:44pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Okorochas just started seriously, He needs to run his two terms as governor, Chris Ngige/ a NW or NC candidate is a killing stroke!! If PDP also fields a SEasterner as Prez, while CPC fields a Northern candidate as prez, we know why they are doing such, They will break the Southern vote by having two southerners against each other while CPC's candidate enjoys the ride, @Bliss4life, Ngige has a better chance of winning than Okorochas. Ngige under ACN can get SW and some NW votes while Okorochas will only be limited to Igboland, David mark/Okonjo from PDP is a dead call, David mark is a crazy person and we all know that, SW won't consider a vote for him, Saria states won't vote for a woman VP let's be realistic, The best thing is to unite the Southern vote under Ngige with ACN, guaranteed to get 4-5 states in NW, NC, That is a win! Bliss4Lyfe: Naa blood! the SW will go for ACN if the SE/SS give them strong indications that they are behind the candidate, If the North doesn't like an Igbo prez, then they can roast in hell, But the North has a "one voice" lie which PDP used to rig 1999, 2007 elections that they all voted for 1 candidate, Now, the South got they shiiit together, |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Onlytruth(m): 6:48pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Posted by: Bliss4Lyfe
If you read my original post, you would see that I put a little caveat there with regards to SW -IF TINUBU DELIVERS. This is the only way SW would vote Ngige ticket (at least like they "voted" for GEJ). As for the second bolded, David Mark is NOT our candidate. He has been a senate president for more than one term now, yet SE has yet to get a sixth state, or other issues such as true federalism. You may be right about North rallying round him (though I still doubt that because it means the core North would NEVER rule again), but lets wait and watch. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by edogirl2: 6:49pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Bliss4Lyfe: David Mark is unlikely to win significant votes in the Southwest. Outside of Oyo & Ogun, PDP wont get much love in the SW. That said, a lot can change between now & 2015. Dont want to turn this into another tribal debate, but will Yorubas enthusiastically vote for Ngige, even if Tinubu says they should. Hmmn. Igbos didn't particularly vote for Abiola or Obasanjo in large numbers. These things have a way of repeating themselves, though one would wish they didnt. You saw how the number of SW voters dropped significantly during the Presidential elections. They had no feel for Ribadu even though he was ACN, and only grudgingly voted for GEJ once rumours went out that Tinubu/ACN prob wouldnt mind a vote for him. I personally dont believe the presidency is ACN's priority now, nor will it be come 2015. They will prob continue to focus on expanding their national reach through winning more state and national assembly seats, until they are strong enough to have good chance at the presidency. Maybe 2019. Of course if they sense an opportunity sooner, they will go for it. All said, 2015 should be interesting. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by edogirl2: 6:53pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Igbo's best bet is to focus on the SS, SE, and start formng alliances with the middlebelt, and significant parts of the north, and hope for a few votes from the SW. An Igbo shot at presidency that seeks to rely on a large number of votes from the SW, and ignores a lot of the north will fail. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 6:58pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
^^@ Onlytruth, did u hear wat my sister edo.girl just spelt out for u in a few minutes. That is word, not from the heart but brain. Who says women only express emotions and not logic can sit down. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by edogirl2: 7:03pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Thanks sis. Always happy to see your contributions on a politics thread. The boys  tend to be a little more civil to each other when we are around. Credit to them for that. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by cpatra(f): 7:03pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Hmmm, this is really getting interesting. @Edo girl If not for Igbo's votes, Abiola wldn't ve won, in Obj's case, it was a matter of rigging, his kinsmen didn't even vote for him. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Onlytruth(m): 7:06pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Posted by: Bliss4Lyfe
She only put forward an opinion. She has some points which I have already thought about but decided not to discuss here, because my Nnewi folks say that "a na agwo ogwu odo anya, a ha etii ye oso" (pure unadulterated Nnewi) meaning "when you are preparing an eye medicine, you must not add pepper to the concoction."  I am about helping a potentially powerful idea come to pass. BTW I think she is wrong about Igbo not voting for Obasanjo and Abiola, but I don't want to derail this thread. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Nobody: 7:30pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
Edo.girl's analysis is nonsense! The Jonathan that has Azikiwe as a name that the Yorubas voted for nko? "The Yorubas won't vote for Igbo" This is the mentality the North needs to win the Election!! Immediately they are able to get people like you and bliss4life who are Igbo to start accusing Yorubas that they won't vote for Igbos, the only way The Yorubas can answer that is by not voting for any Igbo candidate simple!!! Tinubu delivered ACN to GEJ who had Azikiwe in his name and called SW leaders rascals, Edo.girl's analysis is full of baseless assumptions and is strategically wrapped around the unproven lie that the "Yorubas won't vote for Igbo", If ACN brings in Fashola, he has more chances of winning than any Igbo candidate does, Fashola and a Northern VP can also win with SW, some part of SS, NW, NC and some muslims in core North will even vote for him, The fact that Fashola is already popular with Nigerians all over beats Okorochas and Ngige/Okonjo Iweala all together, The only way Igbos can win next election is if they Unite the southern vote, ACN wil get the Yorubas owing to the fact that Tinubu is currently the most politically powerful in SW right now, Ngige as the prez will get the SE vote, APGA has no link in SW so their candidate will basically divide the south, But it's only possible if the Igbos just drop that mentality of "Yorubas won't vote for Igbos", The Yorubas aren't even looking at the presidency, they want out and they want a negotiating platform which is ACN. Ijaws, Igbos, Edo, people all want out but need a negotiating platform, The middle belters want same thing but no platform to NEGOTIATE. Now, ACN has been the one crying for true federalism and SNC at state level and in the senate, That is the platform every southerner and 35% of the North wants, That is a winning platform, Everyone wants to negotiate. PDP is not the platform for such, APGA doesn't have the political might to even carry SE talkless of other states, ACN is still the only option available!! If you wanna play the "Yorubas won't vote for Igbo card" go ahead and watch the Southern vote you depend on go to shiit!!!!!! |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Obiagu1(m): 7:48pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
For Ngige to win, 4 factors in other of importance have to be positive. 1. GEJ is not running in 2015, so no competition from SS and incumbent power neglegible. 2. SW fully support his candidacy and did not field a candidate 3. ACN gets APGA and Ohaneze backing forcing every other Igbo candidate to step aside. 4. A strong NC VP is chosen whose name is easily recognisable and popular in the North. With all factors positive, then SW, SE, SS and huge NC vote is guaranteed. PDP will struggle with CPC for NW/NE votes and PDP will share NC votes with ACN while the remaining votes in the South will go to PDP. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by RoadStar: 11:20pm On Aug 11, 2011 |
KnowAll: FYI Ngige joined ACN before Tinubu. ACN was formed by Solomon Lar, Audu Ogbe, Abubakar Rimi, Ngige, Ben Obi and other PDP Exiles as at the time with Atiku in the background. |
| Re: Would Chris Ngige Be A Masterstroke??? by Nobody: 12:11am On Aug 12, 2011 |
RoadStar: And your point is? |
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