…says Atiku has more cause to worry

By Iwok Iniobong on September 23, 2022

Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 general election, is expected to succeed incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said in a new country report.

The EIU said in 2019 that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win that year’s election. In 2015, it predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.

In its latest report ahead of the next year’s presidential election, it said the chances of Atiku in winning the poll would be significantly affected by the current internal wrangling in the PDP and the growing popularity of Peter Obi, the candidate of Labour Party (LP), in the South-East, which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP.

Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, defeated several APC leaders to emerge the party’s presidential candidate in May.

Most of his opponents stepped down for him just before the commencement of the primary election, while other aspirants including Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo went ahead to test their popularity with Tinubu, but lost.

However, in recent months, Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State and a fellow Muslim, as his running mate has continued to generate controversy in the APC and across the country ahead of next year’s election.

But the EIU said it does not appear that the same-faith ticket would affect the chances of Tinubu in the presidential election.

“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances,” it said.

Following public outcry, the former Lagos state governor justified his choice of Shettima, saying it was not based on religion or to please one community or the other but to help him govern Nigeria effectively.

“I made this choice because I believe this is the man who can help me bring the best governance to all Nigerians, period, regardless of their religious affiliation or considerations of ethnicity or region,” he said.

But his decision has received wild reactions as many observers within and outside the APC have described the development as a threat to the fragile unity and peace of Nigeria.

Some leaders and critical stakeholders in APC have not hidden their misgivings over the Muslim-Muslim ticket and have accordingly withdrawn their support for the Tinubu-Shettima president bid. Babachir Lawal, a former secretary to the government of the federation and Tinubu’s ally, described the Muslim-Muslim ticket as dead on arrival, saying it would affect the presidential candidate’s chances at the 2023 polls.

Like the APC, PDP has been plagued by internal crisis since the presidential primary was concluded.

Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers State, expressed dissatisfaction with the manner the primary was conducted.

The issue was aggravated when Wike, who was Atiku’s closest opponent in the primary, was snubbed by Atiku as the former vice-president picked Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate.

The decision was contrary to the recommendation of Wike as running mate by the special PDP selection committee.

Wike has stated his demands for reconciliation, among which is the removal of the national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu.

But Ayu has vowed not to resign his position, insisting that his mandate was for four years.

“Atiku has more cause to worry. Not only is Obi eating into the PDP’s South-eastern support base, but Governor Wike, who finished second in the primary, does not appear to be interested in endorsing him,” the EIU said.

The crisis rocking the PDP took a turn for the worse on Wednesday as Wike’s camp pulled out of the campaign council of Atiku.

The report said with the amendment of the Electoral Act to accommodate electronic transmission of result, the role of the establishment in influencing outcome of the presidential election would diminish significantly, leading to the most fairest and credible polls since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

The report added that despite the presence of three major political gladiators from the three major ethnic groups in the country in the presidential race, the amendment of the Electoral Act would bring less disputes about the presidential election result.

Last week, the outcome of an opinion poll by ANAP Foundation showed Obi holding a significant lead over both Tinubu and Atiku.

In the nationwide poll conducted this month, Obi stands at 21 percent while both Tinubu and Atiku are tied in second place with 13 percent each. Kwankwaso of the NNPP is at a distant fourth with only 3 percent.

thebosstrevor1:
Those zombidient will never accept this reality.

They think their little bubble on social media especially Twitter is where elections are done.

They will be shocked when agbado eating urchins wins in 2023

donphilopus:
I've since stopped taking these Obi' supporters seriously maybe until campaigns fully start because they're just so delusional.

In 2019, we were all on this forum when stone was defeating Buhari on polls created by these elements till Buhari won on the election day.

These guys think getting 949 likes as against Tinubu's 50 likes and Atiku's 27 likes would make them win the 2023 elections reason they're being delusional. Why should any sane person be bothered about them?

Take a look at this thread in 2019 when they were still atikulating - https://www.nairaland.com/4997352/breaking-atiku-win-2019-presidential - one even claimed Atiku would sweep the north central just as they're erroneously claiming Obi would sweep there now. Apart from Benue and Plateau where Obi would get a reasonable number of votes due to the large number of Christians in these two states, where else is he sure of getting 15% of votes in the north central? Maybe Nasarawa which he would share with Atiku! Tinubu would sure win this state.

I would advise most people supporting APC to just be watching them here. You don't need to waste your time engaging supporters of a candidate who would come a distant third. They're known for noise making; allow them make that noise because that's what gives them orga$m.

seunmsg:
First, Peter Obi divided PDP by taking away the SE voting bloc. Wike, Makinde and other southern leaders are doing everything to break whatever is left of PDP into two. Realistically, PDP can’t win the election with the crisis from its traditionally voting bloc. An easy victory for APC is easily predictable.

kcnwaigbo:

We don't care what Mynd44 and Seun decides to do on nairaland.We have already taken over Twitter which have far more exposure to this local ethnically biased site

Tinubuadvocate:
Unfortunately for them same people that voted against Buhari in 2015 and 2019 respectively are the same set of people teaming up to vote against chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Sadly their votes is useless .

seunmsg:
First, Peter Obi divided PDP by taking away the SE voting bloc. Wike, Makinde and other southern leaders are doing everything to break whatever is left of PDP into two. Realistically, PDP can’t win the election with the crisis from its traditionally voting bloc. An easy victory for APC is easily predictable.

seunmsg:
First, Peter Obi divided PDP by taking away the SE voting bloc. Wike, Makinde and other southern leaders are doing everything to break whatever is left of PDP into two. Realistically, PDP can’t win the election with the crisis from its traditionally voting bloc. An easy victory for APC is easily predictable.

seunmsg:
First, Peter Obi divided PDP by taking away the SE voting bloc. Wike, Makinde and other southern leaders are doing everything to break whatever is left of PDP into two. Realistically, PDP can’t win the election with the crisis from its traditionally voting bloc. An easy victory for APC is easily predictable.

OkutaNla:


Why are you guys like this for Pete's sake? You want to dominate everything, and when things don't go your way you start sulking like a bunch of overgrown babies. Nairaland does it's best to be fair to all parties, but what you guys want is an unfair advantage over other candidates, and just because you aren't getting that you decide to disparage and discredit this site and Seun it's owner. Nothing less than absolute dominance would satisfy you people. The world doesn't revolve around you lot. Know that and know peace.

Period007:

Muslim Muslim has divided APC votes
Tribalism finally shattered the remaining few votes.
As it stands now, no other tribes is voting Tinubu except the yorubas

kcnwaigbo:

Lol same people ? As in SW+ NE/NW? My brother better wake up from sleep.You are now on your own

kcnwaigbo:


I don't even see Tinubu making first runner up.The only state outside the SW he stands a chance of winning is Kwara because of the huge indigenous Yoruba population

kcnwaigbo:


I don't even see Tinubu making first runner up.The only state outside the SW he stands a chance of winning is Kwara because of the huge indigenous Yoruba population

The EIU said in 2019 that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win that year’s election. In 2015, it predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.

The point of disagreement btw Tinubu and I is that while I expressed my worries that there’s nothing to assure me that the administrative style & attitude would change in the next four years in a manner that will enable us to deliver the positive changes we promised Nigerians,
he (Tinubu) expressed a strong opinion that he would rather ‘support a Buhari on the hospital stretcher’ to get a second term because in 2023, it will be his turn.

kcnwaigbo:


That does not justify the owner and owner of this site clearly showing bias against other candidates because there are not of the same ethnic group as them

tinsel:
Peter started too early to campaign showing the political immaturity of some of the youths supporting him. They are becoming exhausted when the campaign is yet to start.
Tinubu was quiet strategizing, meeting and planning. The results are coming out in the last few days. The momentum is heading his way.

JASONjnr:
I'm sure they will move it to the front-page....But all the online polls that Peter Obi have been winning, thy refused to bring it to the front page...But a mere prediction is what they will rush to feed the people....


They're trying so hard to demarket Peter Obi but we are stubbornly Obidient..

kcnwaigbo:


That does not justify the owner and owner of this site clearly showing bias against other candidates because there are not of the same ethnic group as them