Let's look at the chances of the four major candidates in the next presidential election. Some argue that we don't have up to four major candidates but I would be analyzing all the candidates that I believe would get over a million votes in the upcoming election.

1. Kwankwaso; let's begin with the formal governor of Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso. He may not be popular in the southern part of Nigeria but he is loved in the core north. Even at that, Kwankwaso's chances are not great. I believe he would need an outright miracle to win this election.
I don't see him cracking 25% in any state in the south. Even in the North, he would only get significant votes from the northwest where he is strongest. But as long as most Nigerians believe in miracles, his excellency still got a chance.

2. Tinubu; Bola Ahmed Tinubu's huge advantage is that he is in the incumbent party. In Nigeria, we don't joke about the power of the incumbent. But that said let's look at his chances.
The southwest is supposed to be his strongest zone. He is Yoruba so it shouldn't surprise anyone if he wins the zone. But the big question is, by how many points?
In both 2015 and 2019, APC failed to crack 60% in the Southwest. Some may argue that it was because Buhari was on the ticket and not Tinubu but everyone knew that Tinubu was next in line after Buhari hence 'Emilokan'. So those who did not vote for Buhari even when they knew that after Buhari, comes Tinubu, why would they vote for him this time? We have not seen any sign that he would beat the 60% threshold but then, he is from the zone, and he has enough time to convince his people. If Tinubu does not get over 75% of the votes in the southwest, it would be very hard for him to win this election.
Tinubu would also need the block votes the APC got from the Northwest in the last two elections. Luckily for him, he has almost all the governors on his side also, Buhari is from the zone too. Then again, Buhari's approval is presently below 20% across the country. Also, there is a move for power to remain in the north. Question is, would the governors be able to take Tinubu across the finish line this time? He would need the kind of margins Buhari had in the Northwest.

3. Atiku; The formal VP has lost the South. The region was huge for him in the last election as he won in 13 out of the 17 states of the south. But with the present rift in the party, it seems he has lost the southern governors.

That leaves him with the north. Many core Northerners are looking to retain power in the north and Atiku is by far the most connected northern politician after Buhari. The PDP is also a heavyweight party. But then, Atiku needs at least 50% of all northern votes to balance his poor outing in the South. Can he do it?

4. Obi; Peter Obi would win in the Southeast and Southsouth zones but that would not be enough to make him president. For him to be president, APC needs to score less than 65% of the southwestern votes and he must score at least 25% from the region. He would be hoping for those who did not vote for APC in 2015 and 2019 to repeat the same.

Obi would also need the Votes in the north to be divided with no party having up to 40% of the votes in the north. Also, he would have to score 25% of the votes in 8 to 9 northern states. The states where he has the highest chance of getting 25% in the north are, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Niger, Taraba, Gombe, a miracle in Adamawa, and definitely Abuja.

What do you think? Let's hear from you.

Nice analysis.

Lets take away Kwankwaso, i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu.

On Atiku chance, i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi , i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly, Tinubu. I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

On tinubu chances , i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.


I don try. Shalom
Mynd44, seun, nlfpmod please move this to front page, this is the only page we have devoid of any tribalistic comment but pure constructive analysis. Thanks

lhordspy:
Hmm

You disagree?

You saved the best for the last. You said it all, we have our president. God bless Peter Obi, God bless Nigeria.

I really think the surest way to defeat an incumbent is for opposition to join forces or electorate should vote overwhelmingly for a candidate. Defeating incumbent in a nation like Nigeria is not an easy task. They have every trick in the book, and money...also, poverty is easily weaponised in this country. Anyone that will win this election needs just 40% of the vote. Hope y'all choose right.

Kenneth Okonkwo and Charlie boy led Obi's campaign in Abuja today.

Obi's campaign everywhere is led by an Igbo organiser.

For more than 50 years an Igbo person hasn't led the country so there's determination in the heart of an average Igbo person because they believe it's their turn.

They didn't show you the obedient campaign that held in Kano where Obi himself was today.

Obi remains Igbos greatest effort at getting Presidency and that's it. The euphoria of having people campaign for an Igbo man ignites happiness in the heart of every south Easterner even though they're doing it themselves. It's not happened before since the inception of this republic.

Charlie Boy will either vote at Abuja or Imo State.

Kenneth Okonkwo will vote at Nsukka on February.

Phyno and P-square who will lead the march at Lagos will vote at Anambra or Lagos.

The spare part sellers in Abuja and Computer village traders in Lagos will vote all have one vote each.

Those who travel different states to make the crowd bigger also have one vote each.

In fact, those who are registered outside the South East will not return to Imo State or other war-torn areas of the South East to vote.

With no hope of getting 50% of valid votes cast anywhere outside the South East, Obi remains a regional candidate.

Atiku will never forget Obi . At the end of elections next year, add Atiku's result and Obi's result and you'll get what Atiku should have had without Labour Party.

Upworkwriter007:
I really think the surest way to defeat an incumbent is for opposition to join forces. Defeating incumbent in a nation like Nigeria is not an easy task. They have every trick in the book, and money...also, poverty is easily weaponised in this country. Anyone that will win this election needs just 40% of the vote. Hope y'all choose right.

My post was based on a free election.

Apt

lhordspy:
Nice analysis.

Lets take away Kwankwaso, i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu.

On Atiku chance, i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi , i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly, Tinubu. I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

On tinubu chances , i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.


I don try. Shalom

I have lived 15 years cumulatively in 5 South South States. From June to August this year I spent not less than 1 week each in these states. Why? I'll not reveal

I'm saying this the for umpteenth time, Obi will not win Bayelsa State, Cross River State, Akwa Ibom State, Delta State and Rivers State as it stands today.

N3TRAL:


I have lived 15 years cumulatively in 5 South South States. From June to August this year I spent not less than 1 week each in these states. Why? I'll not reveal

I'm saying this the for umpteenth time, Obi will not win Bayelsa State, Cross River State, Akwa Ibom State, Delta State and Rivers State as it stands today.

Who would win those states?

N3TRAL:


I have lived 15 years cumulatively in 5 South South States. From June to August this year I spent not less than 1 week each in these states. Why? I'll not reveal

I'm saying this the for umpteenth time, Obi will not win Bayelsa State, Cross River State, Akwa Ibom State, Delta State and Rivers State as it stands today.

Hmm.. Give your reasons.


Mynd44, seun, nlfpmod please move this to front page for us.

lhordspy:
Nice analysis.

Lets take away Kwankwaso, i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu.

On Atiku chance, i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi , i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly, Tinubu. I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

On tinubu chances , i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.


I don try. Shalom

First, we do not know the tribal demography of Lagos voters. The 7 million might even be a big disadvantage for Tinubu. Secondly, we are yet to see if the northern governors are enough to pull him through.
Again you showed very little knowledge of the history of our past elections. Without counting Lagos, the South East has more votes than the remaining 5 states of the Southwest. And even when you add Lagos, the Southwest vote is not a million more than the Southsouth vote. please check the past elections.

Moh247:
Apt

Not exactly. Atiku will not get votes from the South East so Tinubu does not need Buhari type of votes in the North.

North West = Atiku vs Tinubu vs Kwankwaso

North East = Atiku vs Tinubu

North Central = Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi

South West= Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi

South South = Atiku vs Tinubu Vs Obi

South East= Obi v Atiku

Atiku has presence in the 6 zones, Tinubu has presence in 5 zones , Obi has presence in four zones and Kwankwaso in one Zone.

It is not how many states you win, it is the difference between the candidates in the states the win.

For instance, Obi is capable of winning with wide margin only in the 5 States of the South East.

Atiku is not sure of winning with wide margin in is North East. Tinubu is sure of winning Borno and Yobe (2 states in the North East)

Tinubu is sure of winning five states in the South West with a wide margin. He will win Lagos but not with a wide margin.

The votes of the North West will be divided and Atiku and Tinubu will not get less than 3 million each from the region.

PDP will win in the South South but will be lowest ever, so the difference here between the parties will be much.

In North Central, Tinubu will win Kwara State with land slide. He'll win Kogi and Nasarawa States with wide margin too. The FCT which I include here will be shared among everyone.


Tinubu is very lucky. When the result of Next year elections are ready and Atiku's vote is added with Obi's vote, Atiku will never forget Obi . Obi will not get 25% of votes if in 22 States and the FCT so he technically cannot win.

Moh247:
Apt

Not exactly. Atiku will not get votes from the South East so Tinubu does not need Buhari type of votes in the North.

North West = Atiku vs Tinubu vs Kwankwaso

North East = Atiku vs Tinubu

North Central = Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi

South West= Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi

South South = Atiku vs Tinubu Vs Obi

South East= Obi v Atiku

Atiku has presence in the 6 zones, Tinubu has presence in 5 zones , Obi has presence in four zones and Kwankwaso in one Zone.

It is not how many states you win, it is the difference between the candidates in the states the win.

For instance, Obi is capable of winning with wide margin only in the 5 States of the South East.

Atiku is not sure of winning with wide margin in is North East. Tinubu is sure of winning Borno and Yobe (2 states in the North East)

Tinubu is sure of winning five states in the South West with a wide margin. He will win Lagos but not with a wide margin.

The votes of the North West will be divided and Atiku and Tinubu will not get less than 3 million each from the region.

PDP will win in the South South but will be lowest ever, so the difference here between the parties will be much.

In North Central, Tinubu will win Kwara State with land slide. He'll win Kogi and Nasarawa States with wide margin too. The FCT which I include here will be shared among everyone.


Tinubu is very lucky. When the result of Next year elections are ready and Atiku's vote is added with Obi's vote, Atiku will never forget Obi . Obi will not get 25% of votes if in 22 States and the FCT so he technically cannot even win.

tctrills , Ihordspy.

I think I already stated the reasons in this thread when I was asked. Can't type again. Check the first page of the link below, I've stated my first hand experience in South South States except Rivers which I couldn't call and Edo State I don't know about.

https://www.nairaland.com/7339241/peter-obi-win-states-outside/1#116789213

tctrills:

First, we do not know the tribal demography of Lagos voters. The 7 million might even be a big disadvantage for Tinubu. Secondly, we are yet to see if the northern governors are enough to pull him through.

Very true ofcourse, reason why i stated very clearly that taking out the diversity in tribe which is something to take note when talking about Lagos. But it doesnt have any effect on its voters in anyways except the igbos voters who will definitely be gunning for Peter Obi.
But asides that, i think as bad as it might get, Tinubu will have atleast 4-5m+ votes in Lagos state. Except the religion factor is to be upset and it is to play a big role. Then brother, Tinubu will have a big problem, a very big one as at that.

But asides that, i think Tinubu will be winning Lagos with large margin. That is his sure card right now, reason why we see the SWAGA(southwest tinubu campaign) are the most active of all other tinubu campaign organisation.

Remember of recent too, the former candidate of PDP in Lagos, musiliu obanikoro who decamp to Apc few years back...was upgraded to a a big position within the APC lagos state chapter. And also we have rumour of the chairman of Labour party in Lagos working for APC lagos state. It entails more about how serious Asiwaju want to get in Lagos and south west general. Hate him or love him, Tinubu is a brillant chief strategist. Man was made for politics, he moves is chess so well, smartly and calculative.

Especially in Lagos, i dont even Tinubu wants a big chunk out of the Lagos vote, the man want it all!

N3TRAL:
tctrills , Ihordspy.

I think I already stated the reasons in this thread when I was asked. Can't type again. Check the first page of the link below, I've stated my first hand experience in South South States except Rivers which I couldn't call and Edo State I don't know about.

https://www.nairaland.com/7339241/peter-obi-win-states-outside/1#116789213

I can't seems to find it. You can try copying it here though. Thanks.

lhordspy:


Very true ofcourse, reason why i stated very clearly that atleast taking out the diversity in tribe which is something to take note when talking about Lagos. But it doesnt have any effect in its voters in anyways except the igbos voters who wioo definitely be gunning for Peter Obi.
But asides that, i think as bad as it might get, Tinubu will have atleast 4-5m+ votes in Lagos state. Except the religion factor is to be upset and it is to play a big role. Then brother, Tinubu will have a big problem, a very big one as at that.

But asides that, i think Tinubu will be winning Lagos with large margin. That is his sure card right now, reason why we see the SWAGA(southwest tinubu campaign) are the most active of all other tinubu campaign organisation.

Remember of recent too, the former candidate of PDP in Lagos, musiliu obanikoro who decamp to Apc few years back...was upgraded to a a big position within the APC lagos state chapter. And also we have rumour of the chairman of Labour party in Lagos working for APC lagos state. It entails more about how serious Asiwaju want to get in Lagos and south west general. Hate him or love him, Tinubu is a brillant chief strategist. Man was made for politics, he moves is chess so well and calculative.

Especially in Lagos, i dont even Tinubu wants a big chunk out of the Lagos vote, the man want it all!

It's not about what he wants but what the voters want. I understand your thinking but it is not backed by history. APC has never won Lagos by over 8%. Let's assume the Lagos demography is the same, how do you expect him to pull the magic? What didn't he do in 2015 that you think he is doing now?
Also, Lagos never gets up to 50% of registered voters to vote on election day.

tctrills:

It's not about what he wants but what the voters want. I understand your thinking but it is not backed by history. APC has never won Lagos by over 8%. Let's assume the Lagos demography is the same, how do you expect him to pull the magic? What didn't he do in 2015 that you think he is doing now?
Also, Lagos never gets up to 50% of registered voters to vote on election day.

PDP votes in Lagos will be divided into LP and PDP votes. The Igbos who always voted Pdp will vote for LP and the bulk of the rest of PDP voters will still vote PDP. Tinubu will win Lagos with a wider margin than 2015 and 2019.

tctrills:

It's not about what he wants but what the voters want. I understand your thinking but it is not backed by history. APC has never won Lagos by over 8%. Let's assume the Lagos demography is the same, how do you expect him to pull the magic? What didn't he do in 2015 that you think he is doing now?
Also, Lagos never gets up to 50% of registered voters to vote on election day.

That is what am saying. Everything is different this time. Can't you feel it too.
I think for the first time, we are going to have large turnout of voters everywhere in the country. We will have atleast over 6m+ turnout voters in Lagos alone. The question shouldnt even be if tinubu can win by over 40percent.
The question should be what can other candidate savage from Lagos.

And when i mean other candidate, Atiku and kwankwaso are non-existence politically presently in Lagos. So am definitely refferring to peter obi. He is the only tinubu competition in Lagos presently.

N3TRAL:


PDP votes in Lagos will be divided into LP and PDP votes. The Igbos who always voted Pdp will vote for LP and the bulk of the rest of PDP voters will still vote PDP. Tinubu will win Lagos with a wider margin than 2015 and 2019.

True. But we cant take away the religious sentimentalism factor. The other candidates, especially Peter obi are capitalizing on the issue to sway christians voters.
Fortunately, for Tinubu south-west dont marginalise religiously, they dont care about religion differences but as painful to me to say Lagos is just not a typical south-west state. We have so many tribes and different folks with different culture and ideology. So some might be swayed by religious lines campaigner but i still dont see any upset on tinubu influence.

Man is a god in Lagos.

lhordspy:


That is what am saying. Everything is different this time. Can't you feel it too.
I think for the first time, we are going to have large turnout of voters everywhere in the country. We will have atleast over 6m+ turnout voters in Lagos alone. The question shouldnt even be if tinubu can win by over 40percent.
The question should be what can other candidate savage from Lagos.

And when i mean other candidate, Atiku and kwankwaso are non-existence politically presently in Lagos. So am definitely refferring to peter obi. He is the only tinubu competition in Lagos presently.

What do you think is different about Lagos this time?