Edit August 2024: Disclaimer: This is a rough draft of ideas of an eccentric mind as it occurs to me. In a situation you accidentally read this, PLEASE IGNORE, Skip this thread, it is detrimental to your financial well being.

constantly seeking for self help information /ideas on how organisations/ tax professionals can help with tax obligation appropriately as well as become aware of tax related matters as the year go by. The questions aren't limited to the following viz:

I. updated rough draft of my thought process turn long term investment thesis on publicly and privately listed companies in the following countries (NGX, SHA, USA, 2 more countries to be added shortly)
II. How do i file taxes if i'm a self employed nomad tax resident?
III. What companies in Nigeria offer tax related service for Small/Medium size LLC?
IV. How can i file personal income + company income tax my self as a small business owner?
V. Deca to centi problems => seeking merit vs demerit of boutique vs large scale Trust services vs home office, etc within Nigeria and diaspora
VI. List goes on and on

Edit May 2024 : Idea is to journal findings as new opportunity show up on the horizon i traverse in the financial world. here and backup privately through Tumblr for posterity in case usual nairaland black out occurs

Musings for May : Sectors to keep eyes out for growth 2nd half 2024 through Q4 2025 NGX

I. Mining sector - Thor exploration (AIM vs CA), Multiverse .
II.Finance (Banking and insurance) - DRIP for positions held, build on more
III. Oil &Gas - focus on local players onshore growth +/-
IV.Waste management - Great addressable market, not much serious players in the public investment space for competition; double edge sword for monopolistic tendency with winner take all.
V. Real estate - been on the hunt for two listings. Patient enough to keep piling allocation available to strike when offers available.

My Projects ahead to Focus through Q4 2025 :
I. keep re-investing in NGX . Looking forward to AELP taking hold in coming years, NGX may spur faster implementation by replicating similar moves made with ethiopian bourse across other markets + partnering with other viable bourse to create Market maker structure.

Risk: this creates room for grandiose manipulation all in the name of correcting market inefficiency.

II. The journey to expand exposure to three untapped exchange in emerging markets (will update as soon as all paperwork is completed) and crowdfunding marketplace for interesting ideas (fund raising should gradually pick up by Q1'25)

III. Edit May 29: C.Sativa DEA re-scheduling and US election stock pick play through options. should be clear by 3rd quarter for both. all eyes out.

IV Rinse and Repeat.!.

Just stumbled on your journal. Way to go. 👍

KayOn1:
Just stumbled on your journal. Way to go. 👍

Thanks for looking out. Figured it's a way to keep myself accountable of my thoughts while wading through varied pockets .

Q3/ 2nd Half 2024 Musings : Note to self! - Nothing New

I. Nothing of importance. cruise control for the better part of the year in NGX. Except deep discount is seen. enjoy the last round of divy then manually DRIP.

II. Main catalyst for action = Inflation rate Interest rate tango.

*** In Nigeria, steady rate (both inflation and interest) should be seen through q4. Albeit unlikely, earliest interest rate cut should be seen in Q4 (November the last meeting for the year). Over subscription of MM, Fixed income instruments should be the norm.

*** US, - no change in rate. Neutral at this point (opinion may change after July ending meeting and Jackson hole meeting in August, highly doubt it)

III. Broader markt for US Election: narrowed down my Option play choice to the following : exposure will be very minimal

a. XLE ( end of summer mid 90's call)

b MSOS - the idea is to play around DEA rescheduling of c.sativa which should have impact on the industry. will make decision by end of the month or next if pricing makes no sense to one's advantage.

c. PLTR and DJT decision will be made by august.

IV. Focus is mostly on startups crowdfunding (anything outside Major AI is fair game)

Totally random boredom thought while reviewing some articles/papers on Energy (steel, ammonia, natural gas etc) no clear answer from findings yet , will need to review deeper in coming weeks to years on how this play out in our local market as well as foreign market. Local public companies in Oil & Gas are not included in this thought considering they are already spoken for.

I. Steel, copper, Lithium, [Natural gas, Ammonia (has other use case for every day life in agriculture, shipping, preservatives, etc) converted to Hydrogen] seem the backbone of energy of the future.

II. Next question logically is which business is/are positioned for this moves now or working towards it for future gains . publicly listed companies in India, china, US are favourites. Nigeria has loads of catch up to play.

III. Local Conglomerates positioned to benefit include Dang fertilizer (about 3 million MT ammonia capacity per annum). BUA Iron and steel company not publicly listed seem positioned for winner takes all considering the parent company will have all it needs in terms of energy supply and shipping /logistics for importation and exportation as required.

IV.Deliberately avoided stating anything about ajaokuta steel as well as Notore chemical coy (need to scale up capacity from about 330,000 MT per annum).

V. more to be added as train of thought process findings.

VI. Added thoughts on Aug. 8th '24 : interesting players to keep eyes out in energy transition play: uranium and metallurgical coal for steel
** Uranium miners is an interesting play to look at for possible exposure : Cameco (Canada) vs Palladin ( aussie ) vs Russia by the way of khazastan (jury out on this diamond in the rough)

*** Metallurgical coal producers looking to get exposure to in coming months (List not exhaustive) in australia (BHP), china (shenzua and CNG energy), Coal India (india), CHF (Glencore), US (Consul energy vs peabody still need to do more finding of competitor)

Thought for the weekend:- Asia-Pacific Aviation

We may as well be experiencing the end of a duopoly in aircraft carriage by the turn of this decade. Money is on China's COMAC. If i was an airline chief executive or aviation school in Africa, I will pay rapt attention on R & D, seek opportunity for partnership. China is doing the heavy lifting anyway, cost implication on your part will be how well your negotiation skill goes. chalk it up to placing order for planes (wet/dry/ outright purchase), set up aviation grant for your upcoming team members interested in batches. The benefit if properly executed is a multi generational benefit that outweighs the upfront huge cost.

This should create a niche of competitive advantage in aviation on the continent. It's a matter of when not if, this will be the first time in a long while this field is open for partnership.

Random thought for the week : Transportation sector business (Rail and Bus)

I. I'm interested enough to start accumulation of this company stock. ABC Revenue generation is impressive, but more can be done. The board management have done well in the last 2 decades, but more needs to be done.

ABC transport- I love this business, for some reason unknown to me, i have never looked at it as a company that is listed on NSE (hard to believe but here we are ). Had Preference for Ekene dili chukwu over abc back in the day for long distance travels using long coach buses late 90' through early 2000's. It's crazy to see how ABC has edged over it's peers in about 20 years in all spheres haulage, cargo, all form of bus service, first and last mile delivery etc

This is what NIPOST should look like at the very least. For last delivery mile ABC competitors will be JUMIA and Nipost ( honorable mention Redstar Express and GIGL ) . For First and mid mile delivery NRC (Nigeria railway co-oporation) is it's major competitor.

edited Aug 02.2024

Hierachy (descending order) of NGX listed logistic company per revenue and PAT (profit after tax) for context: NAHCO -> Skyway aviation -> Redstar-> ABC transport . Jumia ( ~ 170 million euros or 300 billion naira in Revenue, projected profitability starts in 4th quarter of 2025) and Abc transport still red in PAT territory. No info on GIGL books (privately held for a while)

II. For Next phase of Mega growth; The board should review it's haulage and luxury tour investment strategy focusing on including Railway as part of it's transportation by doing the following viz:

a. Get concession with NRC to lease or purchase train coach suitable for passenger rail (regular and luxury) freight services on standard guage and narrow guage track respectively from south to the north or other parts of the country accessible via rail tracks.

aII. upfront cost is huge, this is not an absurd proposal for ABC transport. Transportation and haulage business is capital intensive. It will cut down cost and significantly increase volume moved for long distance haulage of materials on bad roads. The haulage trucks will only be used as last mile delivery from rail station to the destination.

b. Long term goal will be to offer luxury rail tour similar to what Rocky mountaineer offers from vancouver to jasper. ABC has the cache from several years of traversing Nigeria to pick destination with interesting sight seeing options and security conscious planning. there are numerous sights to choose from within 6 geopolitical zone.

c. The notes below may be the most challenging long term proposition ( 20 year plan) but is probably the most rewarding if the board get to acting now before another company outside of china take this opportunity and run with it:

*** Source funds through long term corporate Bonds vs partnership with state governments in the eastern region or south west in form of PPP vs PAB (Private active bonds similar to what brightline did in florida)

** Seek Partnership for expertise transfer between ABC transport and chinese rail company like CRCC that builds locomotive (since the 1800) and a leader in High speed rail business.

*** Of course barrier of entry is high, you must pay your teacher to learn work, else na Baroof him go teach you. teaming up with a chinese company like China Communications Construction Company vs CRCC that is at the helm of affairs of meeting the chinese government target of doubling high speed rail (HSR) connection in the next 10 years.This will definitely drag the cost of HSR production down, while profit margin and expertise level for companies willing to learn will be greatly rewarded for decade to come.

**** Total addressable market with such expertise broaden greatly, but Steel production capacity through importation may be a head wind for cost of production except steel is locally sourced.

*** In the Long run, set up an Assembling plant for rail coach to augment the luxury bus assembling section is the way to go.

Note to self:- Keeping eyes out for Nigeria's President visit to China in September. Surprised by close to no info about the visit by technocrats. This pretty much is similar to Kissinger cum Nixon visit to china in 71-72 but reverse is the case for us . I'm looking out for the following after the visit

I. I can only pray The president does not screw this up with his line up of entourage, Only serious minded technocrats and business men with skin in the game Not more than 20 of them is enough. Similar to india visit but more streamlined in this case.
The goal should be Tech transfer negotiation that is a win-win for both nation.

If i was a career diplomat, i will strive legally to be assigned to china for the next decade or more to study every facet as much as possible. It's a marathon not a sprint.

II. considering IP issues and other national security clearance issue, the challenge will be figuring out how to set up a bilateral chino-Nigeria committee/ commission (15 from both countries) for biennial meetings to oversee issues that may arise detrimental to both countries.

to be proactive, President Tinubu can create a 15 man committee or commission (whatever is legal with less bureaucracy) with 5 year 2 term limit of service per individual on the committee for china relations. This should involve captains of industry, savvy citizen (academia/ private sector) in aforementioned field of endeavour and accomplished heads of the ministry of foreign affairs , ministry of works, transport, ministry of science/tech, Ministry of communications. This committee reports directly to the president and meet monthly.

IF any member is acting like a Arrow, he or she should be removed from the team no matter how highly or lowly placed (s)he may be.

III. The commitee's task will solely be reviewing and executing policies of transfer of knowledge between china and Nigeria in the area of steel, energy generation & transmission, transportation (Rail, planes, sat navigation system, ship building, and civil engineering). the review is to see how it suits the Nigerian populace and economy for more growth.

IV. Asking for transfer of knowledge without paying a reasonable price will show the lack of seriousness on our part. There's no free lunch anywhere. Most likely our mining sector and oil fields (Russia seem to have this oil and gas china deal in chokehold but you never know if we have a mastermind negotiator to pull it off) may be a bargaining chip.

V. criteria for an individual to be a member of the commitee will be viz:
** such individual is the head or director of R & D of a company in the aforementioned industry.
** every individual has security clearance to avoid jeopardizing the mutual alliance. The penalty for moles will be considered treasonable offence with no appeal if evidence indicates he/she is the mole.
***as more idea come, this area will be populated.

VI. Project financing may not be as large as china's CCP used to indulge in back in 2008 through 14, if the team know what it's doing, there are deals to be made.

VII. Lastly, the goal is to use such knowledge to impart into Nigerian universities/ polytechnics as research grounds in alliance with local and chinese companies benefitting from such knowledge.
** Knowing how corrupt the heads and nominal professors of our tertiary institutions are, professorial chairs and micro institute or research labs should be set up to ensure no reasonable work to show for the grant/alliance, no more funding should be extended to such scholar.
*** NDA and appropriate legal consequence should be binding and enforced respectively in case an unfortunate scholar (Researcher and his/her team) decide to be a mole dishing out IP of national security like it's candy to the highest bidder

How do i use this as an investment thesis ? the serious minded go-getter will always show their hand by omission or commission, the opportunity will reveal itself in companies of fair enterprise and or liquidation value to buy here in Nigeria and or in china.

Hogwarthtrades:
Q3/ 2nd Half 2024 Musings : Note to self! - Nothing New

I. Nothing of importance. cruise control for the better part of the year in NGX. Except deep discount is seen. enjoy the last round of divy then manually DRIP.

II. Main catalyst for action = Inflation rate Interest rate tango.

*** In Nigeria, steady rate (both inflation and interest) should be seen through q4. Albeit unlikely, earliest interest rate cut should be seen in Q4 (November the last meeting for the year). Over subscription of MM, Fixed income instruments should be the norm.

*** US, - no change in rate. Neutral at this point (opinion may change after July ending meeting and Jackson hole meeting in August, highly doubt it)

update: with yesterday's FOMC meeting, it's highly probable to see at least 25 basis point rate cut in FOMC meeting in september. Except we get weird inflation report and job data reading for August and September. Eyes on Jackson hole meeting by end of this month for more info.

This should usher in buy the dip euphoria if rate starts to come down consistently. will keep eyes peeled for 2yr, 10, 20+ bond, 30 yr option play for mispricing.. seem early bird may get worm first or choke on road kill

Note to self: Let the Fawqery begin !!!

First position initiated today. Front running Jackson hole and possible FOMC september rate cut: Testing of the waters with this idea means starting uber small like a degenerate , there's room to roll prior to expiration. Low risk, marginal returns or may be more

I. TLT sept 30 108 c
II. TLT Aug 28 101 c

Hogwarthtrades:
Note to self: Let the Fawqery begin !!!

First position initiated today. Front running Jackson hole and possible FOMC september rate cut: Testing of the waters with this idea means starting uber small like a degenerate , there's room to roll prior to expiration. Low risk, marginal returns or may be more

I. TLT sept 30 108 c
II. TLT Aug 28 101 c

Update: small position approach is key to front running FOMC rates for now.

*** Aug 28 TLT - Allowed it to expire worthless with no roll into longer dates.

**** TLT sept 30 108 C - still keeping original position, but adding more to cheaper OTM (Out the money calls) viz:-

III. Sept 30 104 C - Cheap, what more can i say ?

IV. Oct 25 108c - Besides purchasing this contracts, The plan will be to roll some of the sept 30 contracts into this pnes as well by rnd of the month if the cost make sense.

Update: FOMC 50 Basis Point just in. another cut b4 year end is possiblr .!.

Update: #Notetoself for BUA Food AGM today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB4nj2_uQNY

I.Nice AGM update by BUA Foods : more growth for the company ahead. it seem result of production ramp up ( additional wheat milling lines in Lagos and PH + cane sugar farm project upgrade in lafiaji, Kwara.) should will be felt within 12-18 months.

II. Sadly, no Investor deem it fit to get more information on BUA foods strategy on wheat BIP.

III. Win-Win competition ahead for Rice production and market share between Dangote and Bua.That said, stance remain DCA into both company. It's only sensible to get back to accumulate both coy BUA foods and Dang (sugar/salt) monthly or quarterly based on disposable cash.

IV.Lastly, It seem Consumer protection arm of the government ought to work with BuA Food and Cement to get first hand information to investigate the price gouging complaint. This is the second time this year he has said manufacturers and distributors are culprit to the issue. Hopefully FCCPC take this seriously.
Viva NIgeria!!!

End of 4th Quarter Note to Self

FOMC, ’25 Geopolitics Thought

Another 25 basis cut is possible in December ’24 (45% chance, this may change based on set of data that is seen prior to next Meeting in December). This seem like recessionary waves have come to stay. It should become imminent in data by end of Q1 - mid Q2 2025. It only mean one thing for me, scan through the choice of companies interested in , then allocate fund for purchase regularly.

Geopolitics will be the bread and butter for Q1-Q4 2025, and I am planning accordingly for mispricing in opportunities that may be available or lack thereof.

Geopolitical factors to keep an eye out for include Tarrif across euro-china and US- china + a few South east asian countries, possible chip supply crunch / hoarding by clients may resurface. This should open opportunities in other SE asian countries i.e tourism , tech and manufacturing. This region will possibly absorb offshoring by Chinese exporting hubs to reduce the effect of imminent trade debacle which will become a US -WTO whack-a-mole mess and opportunity.

China, India, Malaysia, Thailand are places I will be spending majority of time looking out for opportunities short term or long term if the parameter make sense in the respective markets for opportunities in Tech, manufacturing, energy, logistics/transportation and hospitality + Aviation.

Thought may be skewed based on information and how geopolitical players show their hand and cards they are dealt with.

Homeland Nigeria

My resolve remain the same for industry/ sector wide approach since last note to self (may and july). The no brainer act is to add more to positions currently held based on availability of funds.

Keeping my eyes on the Tax reform bill proceeding. This is similar to R.Raegan reform act which led to more room for sense of stability and growth in the market. Getting this bill passed will be another hurdle and a catalyst to pave way for confidence in the market and large extent the economy.

Hopefully it’s done with the sense of urgency and done properly. Timeframe for ratifying the bill to Law I am shooting for is May or October. It may come earlier than that, or later.

Energy generation opportunity: This is where Chellaram board can sieze the opportunity to increase its revenue by vying for one of the energy project in lagos to add to it's current power generating capacity. It may be a tough fight though knowing other big wigs in energy generation and distribution will be competing for this.That said, it will be a game changer for Chellaram if they get involved (No brainer).


Season's greeting , Merry christmas, let the Santa Plays begin!!!
Viva Nigeria!!!

729 eyes 729 am

Updated FAQ By Chairman, Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms
https://x.com/taiwoyedele/status/1855948163104006445

I bow to my country , Can hardly see the bilateral talk / meeting between india and Nigeria online. Had to rely on Indian station for the full broadcast Webcast. This is disheartening. In Ms. Jonathan voice *Na only PM Modi media waka come* ?