Obinoscopy:
As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.

Felimax:
The one Tambuwal did to you guys is still not enough lesson for you guys in the South. Underestimate the North at your own peril.

Atiku is your next president period and there will be no run off just saying so you have some peace of mind.

As it stands now even fools will not vote for a Tinubu presidency if it is not clear enough for you yet then just wait for few weeks into January then you will understand.

When you go for interview do you go with your parents to answer questions for you or will you employ a wanna be technocrat who came to your interview with people to answer questions for him?

Nigeria is a serious business please, we should stop joking with it.


TINUBU remains UNELECTABLE!
Shalom!

Ruggedniggaone:
obi can even get 70% in kwara and 80% in kogi awon weyrey

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi win 10% of the NC votes cast I owe you 100K in cash.

To even make it beta Kwankwaso will bet Peter Obi in the NC we can bet up to a million on that if you have the balls

To the clown writing jargons Tinubu will get 25% in each n every state of the SW NW NE NC SS. The SE can rot in hell for all he cares.

Obinoscopy:
As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.

Idiotseverywher:
. Guy don't play down on facts , Obi will win massively in the North central, you can take it to the bank, no amount of lies propaganda and blackmail can stop LP from winning the north central, the only States he will lose for Tinubu is kwara , kogi will be shared if not 60/40 because Igbo had almost 8 LGAs in kogi the rest Obi will get more than 50%, you can take to the bank, forget about old story of North being together, these areas ate not north , apart from that no indigenous minority tribe can Vote in anything that connects to herdsmen again because they there targets in their

Otamendi99:


U pple n funny analysis sef. So because 40% christains are in NE. Dey have agreed fo vote PO. And if kogi is shared 60/40 between BAT and PO. Wetin kwankwaso and Atiku go now get. Is a sure bet dat BAT will get 50% leaving d oda 50 for odas in kogi. And who said all christains will vote PO.

Idiotseverywher:
Me and you know the obvious no need to play ignorance or pretend to not knowing the truth, Obi has more advantage more others in the north central and all northern minorities and Christian communities no clear thinking northern minorities and Christian will Vote anything concerning herdsmen and APC

Idiotseverywher:
. Guy don't play down on facts , Obi will win massively in the North central, you can take it to the bank, no amount of lies propaganda and blackmail can stop LP from winning the north central, the only States he will lose for Tinubu is kwara , kogi will be shared if not 60/40 because Igbo had almost 8 LGAs in kogi the rest Obi will get more than 50%, you can take to the bank, forget about old story of North being together, these areas ate not north , apart from that no indigenous minority tribe can Vote in anything that connects to herdsmen again because they there targets in their

Penguin2:


Even in your analysis, you made allusion to Obi’s clear victory at first ballot with the requisite spread.

Walk with me…

Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 5 states of the southeast. That’s 5 states.

Secondly, Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 6 states of the Southsouth; even Okowa knows he can’t win Delta for Atiku. That’s 11 states of 25% for Obi.

Obi will do 25% in all the 6 states of the Southwest. I’m not saying he will win any state, but he will do 25% in all the states. I don’t see Southwest voting Atiku. Now, add 6 Southwest states to 11 Southsouth and southeast states, that’s 17 states.

Now, let’s go to the North Central…. In the North Central, even opposition has conceded that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. That’s 3 states plus 17, which equals to 20 states.

Furthermore, Obi will do 25% in Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna and Taraba. That’s 4 states plus 20, there you have your 24 states.

These are very realistic statistics I’ve given you. The only margin of error here might be some states in Southwest which I doubt.

Add the votes that will come from places like Christians in Adamawa, Southern Borno, Southern Gombe, Southern Kebbi, Southern Bauchi and other areas, and you see Obi’s spread and simple majority staring at you in the face.

Penguin2:


Even in your analysis, you made allusion to Obi’s clear victory at first ballot with the requisite spread.

Walk with me…

Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 5 states of the southeast. That’s 5 states.

Secondly, Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 6 states of the Southsouth; even Okowa knows he can’t win Delta for Atiku. That’s 11 states of 25% for Obi.

Obi will do 25% in all the 6 states of the Southwest. I’m not saying he will win any state, but he will do 25% in all the states. I don’t see Southwest voting Atiku. Now, add 6 Southwest states to 11 Southsouth and southeast states, that’s 17 states.

Now, let’s go to the North Central…. In the North Central, even opposition has conceded that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. That’s 3 states plus 17, which equals to 20 states.

Furthermore, Obi will do 25% in Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna and Taraba. That’s 4 states plus 20, there you have your 24 states.

These are very realistic statistics I’ve given you. The only margin of error here might be some states in Southwest which I doubt.

Add the votes that will come from places like Christians in Adamawa, Southern Borno, Southern Gombe, Southern Kebbi, Southern Bauchi and other areas, and you see Obi’s spread and simple majority staring at you in the face.

Idiotseverywher:
Me and you know the obvious no need to play ignorance or pretend to not knowing the truth, Obi has more advantage more others in the north central and all northern minorities and Christian communities no clear thinking northern minorities and Christian will Vote anything concerning herdsmen and APC

Idiotseverywher:
Me and you know the obvious no need to play ignorance or pretend to not knowing the truth, Obi has more advantage more others in the north central and all northern minorities and Christian communities no clear thinking northern minorities and Christian will Vote anything concerning herdsmen and APC

Otamendi99:


I don't know anything. So far NC is concern. BAT has d win. But not much of a margin. Kogi, kwara, Niger and Nasarawa is d bag for him. Anyone telling u PO got Plateau on lock down is lying to u. So wat den will d Christian community do.

Linus199:
Abeg help me name the 8 LGA Igbos own in Kogi state.

seunmsg:
There will be no runoff in this election. Tinubu and Atiku will get the required 25% in all the 19 northern states. Atiku will get 25% or more in all the SS states and Tinubu will get 25% or more in all the SW states. Thats 24 states for both of them.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Edo, Ebonyi and Cross River states. Atiku should get up to 25% in Enugu, Abia, Ekiti and Ogun and Ondo and Oyo state.

Overall, whoever gets the highest vote between Tinubu and Atiku will be declared president at first round.

fiizznation:
No sir there won't be any run off. There will be a clear winner and a loser. Atiku and Tinubu will get the required percentage in the six regions of the country. That's what structures do. The person that will win big in his base and and also win some states outside his stronghold will win the election.

Tinubu will win the southwest with a wide margin and win some states outside the southwest. I don't know about Atiku's acceptance in the northwest. Is not yet clear which candidate will win big in the region between Atiku and Tinubu. Though many of the youths are clamoring for Atiku and the elderly ones are still for APC. One can't just say yet!

The North Central will clearly be divided between Atiku and Tinubu

The South South will likely go for PDP. PDP might win there but it won't be landslide victory.

The North east just like the northwest isn't guaranteed for anybody yet. Some states will go for APC while some will go for PDP.

The South east will be an open ground for everybody though if I want to bring sentiments in, I will give the region to Obi. But Obi won't even win his region because social media popularity don't win you elections. No matter how we want to spin it, your structure on ground does the magic for you.

fiizznation:
The Northern Christians will vote for only PDP or APC. They won't vote LP!! Even in the heart of southern kaduna were Christians constitute the majority there, they won't vote for LP.
Those guys aren't political naive like you guys think.

seunmsg:
There will be no runoff in this election. Tinubu and Atiku will get the required 25% in all the 19 northern states. Atiku will get 25% or more in all the SS states and Tinubu will get 25% or more in all the SW states. Thats 24 states for both of them.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Edo, Ebonyi and Cross River states. Atiku should get up to 25% in Enugu, Abia, Ekiti and Ogun and Ondo and Oyo state.

Overall, whoever gets the highest vote between Tinubu and Atiku will be declared president at first round.

Obinoscopy:
As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.