Osamabinladenik:
The emergence of Peter Obi was too sudden, both parties did not really see it coming hence they didn't factor him in their many years of political permutations.

The emergence of Obi has made the whole electoral outcome very unpredictable because both APC and PDP cannot really guage the capacity of Obi to be able to make informed decisions. They don't know if to take him very seriously, underrate him or just watch. They just have to keep doing their thing and hope that the people vote for them with faith.

The truth is, no one can know Obi's capacity until election results are out, there's no historical data to work with. This is the first time something like this is happening and APC and PDP are jittery and confuse on how to approach this situation. There's no past experience on how to handle a 3rd force, both parties are use to the normal two horse race, they are inexperience about this.

Forget all their bluffs, Peter Obi is actually a torn in their flesh that they don't know how to remove.

Peter Obi is nothing but a media hype. He can't win. The europhia will die down when he loses the election next year.

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

incorrect analysis

Originality007:


I give up on ur analysis the moment u said SW is btw Atiku and Tinubu.

SW is btw Tinubu and Obi, just forget Atiku.

whatever Thier is any argument in the SW here,. nobody is mentioning Atiku. Out of 10 people u see 6 will say Tinubu the 4 will say Obi. Atiku will get nothing in SW.

The only state where Obi can get any meaningful vote in the southwest is Lagos. Atiku will get some meaningful votes in Osun and Ondo States. Tinubu will clear the entire southwest with wide margins. I give Tinubu as much as 80% and above in Oyo, Ekiti, Ogun and Lagos States. Tinubu will win handsomely in Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Nasarawa States. His chances of winning Plateau and Benue not sure because of Muslim-Muslim ticket. He won't do badly in these two states. He will win Borno, Yobe and Gombe States and will give Atiku a run for his money in Bauchi State. Infact, if President Buhari will go to Bauchi to campaign for Asiwaju, he will win the state. Asiwaju will win big in Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi States. He will do handsomely well in Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto States. *I still tip him to win Kano narrowly* . That is 16 states already in the kitty. Now in the southeast, Asiwaju will do far better than Buhari in all states of the southeast. He is even been tipped to garner up to 40% of the votes in Ebonyi and Imo States. Only the politically naive will write Asiwaju off in the southsouth too. APC won in Bayelsa State before the supreme court upturned the victory on technical grounds, so Asiwaju can't get less than 25% there. It'll be battle royale in Rivers State where Gov Wike seems to be tactically supporting Asiwaju, he won't get less than 30% in Rivers, Cross-River and Delta States. If he won't win in Edo, he'll garner nothing less than 40% there. So where is Atiku winning please? I also don't agree that Peter Obi will defeat Atiku, apart from southeast and southsouth, there is no state where Obi can win, none! Benue State is a cash and carry state when its election, not even Gov Ortom who seems to lean towards Obi can win the state for him since Obi won't give shishi. This is the practical reality on ground. I went to Nasarawa and couldn't hear anything about Obi, meanwhile nairaland analysts made us believe Nasarawa is already in Obi's pocket. I see Asiwaju winning up to 17 States (Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Zamfara) states while Atiku may get 8 (Adamawa, Taraba, *Bauchi*, Sokoto, *Jigawa*, Akwa-Ibom, Delta, and *Edo*). Kwankwaso 1 state (Kano with serious fight with Asiwaju and Atiku), Peter Obi 8 States (Anambra, Abia, *Enugu*, *Imo*, *Ebonyi*, *Rivers*, *Cross-River* and Bayelsa). Plateau and Benue States too difficult to predict. If Atiku, Obi, Kwamkwaso and the Gov Wike's G5 are intact together, Asiwaju will by now be saying byebye to his presidential ambition. But as things stand today, the Lagos political warlord can only lose the 2023 election on Nairaland, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. The opposition are making the race too easy for him.

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

Beer parlour analysis.

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

See analysis. You just proved the OP is right that there're no metrics for a third force. The uncertainty alone is enough to throw your permutations to the dust bin. See as you're quoting statistics like humans in these zones are zombies or Buhari effect never touch them. My only concern is that INEC should make PVCs easily accessible. We go shock them.

wwwkaycom:
The only state where Obi can get any meaningful vote in the southwest is Lagos. Atiku will get some meaningful votes in Osun and Ondo States. Tinubu will clear the entire southwest with wide margins. I give Tinubu as much as 80% and above in Oyo, Ekiti, Ogun and Lagos States. Tinubu will win handsomely in Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Nasarawa States. His chances of winning Plateau and Benue not sure because of Muslim-Muslim ticket. He won't do badly in these two states. He will win Borno, Yobe and Gombe States and will give Atiku a run for his money in Bauchi State. Infact, if President Buhari will go to Bauchi to campaign for Asiwaju, he will win the state. Asiwaju will win big in Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi States. He will do handsomely well in Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto States. *I still tip him to win Kano narrowly* . That is 16 states already in the kitty. Now in the southeast, Asiwaju will do far better than Buhari in all states of the southeast. He is even been tipped to garner up to 40% of the votes in Ebonyi and Imo States. Only the politically naive will write Asiwaju off in the southsouth too. APC won in Bayelsa State before the supreme court upturned the victory on technical grounds, so Asiwaju can't get less than 25% there. It'll be battle royale in Rivers State where Gov Wike seems to be tactically supporting Asiwaju, he won't get less than 30% in Rivers, Cross-River and Delta States. If he won't win in Edo, he'll garner nothing less than 40% there. So where is Atiku winning please? I also don't agree that Peter Obi will defeat Atiku, apart from southeast and southsouth, there is no state where Obi can win, none! Benue State is a cash and carry state when its election, not even Gov Ortom who seems to lean towards Obi can win the state for him since Obi won't give shishi. This is the practical reality on ground. I went to Nasarawa and couldn't hear anything about Obi, meanwhile nairaland analysts made us believe Nasarawa is already in Obi's pocket. I see Asiwaju winning up to 17 States (Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Zamfara) states while Atiku may get 8 (Adamawa, Taraba, *Bauchi*, Sokoto, *Jigawa*, Akwa-Ibom, Delta, and *Edo*). Kwankwaso 1 state (Kano with serious fight with Asiwaju and Atiku), Peter Obi 8 States (Anambra, Abia, *Enugu*, *Imo*, *Ebonyi*, *Rivers*, *Cross-River* and Bayelsa). Plateau and Benue States too difficult to predict. If Atiku, Obi, Kwamkwaso and the Gov Wike's G5 are intact together, Asiwaju will by now be saying byebye to his presidential ambition. But as things stand today, the Lagos political warlord can only lose the 2023 election on Nairaland, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. The opposition are making the race too easy for him.

Tinubu will win Kano, another man's land, but Nobody will win him in SW.

Under the same APC that have destroyed this country?

You see how funny you sound?

Urchins sef

foolery ..obi will surprise come feb 2023foolery ..obi will surprise come feb 2023...

AcuraZDX:


Tinubu will win Kano, another man's land, but Nobody will win him in SW.

Under the same APC that have destroyed this country?

You see how funny you sound?

Urchins sef

Laff...
The biggest problem with you guys is that you don't read. I didn't say Asiwaju will win in Kano, l gave that state to Kwankwaso but with a serious fight with Tinubu and Atiku. Come to the southwest yourself and see, the only support base of Obi here are igbo traders, can that secure meaningful votes for him apart from in Lagos?
Keep deceiving yourselves by masturbating here on nairaland for a victory that will never be. Jagaban can only lose the 2023 election on the social media.

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

[/b]The emergence of Obi has made the whole electoral outcome very unpredictable because both APC and PDP cannot really guage the capacity of Obi to be able to make informed decisions. They don't know if to take him very seriously, underrate him or just watch. They just have to keep doing their thing and hope that the people vote for them with faith.

The truth is, no one can know Obi's capacity until election results are out, there's no historical data to work with[b]

The bolded is the word from op and you proved him right. From your analysis, it's so clear you have underated PO. The truth is 2023 will spring surprises, as for now, there is no clear winner yet. The attacks from both APC and PDP on PO should tell you sonethibg

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

Mr. Chief Analyst is Taraba a North central state?

GBTYO:
He is only a threat for the following :

1. The PDP would've counted on the SE to easily win there but with Obi, PDP is left fighting for at least 25% which Bola Tinubu is also scheming to get. So the battle for 25% SE votes is between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu with his enormous war chest and the fact that there are 2 APC governors in the SE gives Tinubu an edge in Imo and Ebonyi. Atiku will likely scrape 25% in Enugu and Anambra . Enugu because of the PDP structure and Anambra because of both APGA and PDP. Abia is anyone's guess. Both Atiku and Tinubu may not record the required.

2. The middle belt has always been the decider on who wins the election. A region always greatly overlooked . Buhari won 2015 elections because he clinched this zone. In this Zone, Obi goes nowhere except in Benue where he will challenge Atiku but Atiku wins. For other states it will be between Tinubu and Atiku. Atiku will win Taraba, Kogi hands down but Tinubu will clinch the necessary votes in Kogi and give Atiku a run in Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna and Plateau which are all APC states but set to fall to PDP.


3. In the core north , the NW is for Atiku other than some fuckery that will happen in Kaduna under the midget. Kwankwaso will soon collapse his structure into PDP so don't go about thinking he will split the votes. Have you seen Kwankwaso conduct one single rally? Think! In the NE, other than Bornu, Atiku will clinch the zone. Obi has no presence here. He will not get shishi so to speak.

4. In the SW it will be battle royale between Atiku and Tinubu. Tinubu to sweep and Atiku to grab as much as he can.

5. Lagos is the only place Obi stands a good showing outside the SE and he will do well. I am saying 20% well here so don't get your hopes high.

6. Niger Delta is for Atiku. He will win Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom but not with the usual margin PDP is used but win he shall. It is only in Edo that Tinubu might win. Atiku will do well here.


So the real problem is not Obi as a direct threat per se but a spoiler for others and not for him to even win.

Your Analysis shows that you are not aware of the level of Obi's Pupularity in the South South. Obi will win in all the south south states. He's winning pleatue and Benue. He's gonna drag Lagos State with Tinubu. He will do well in Taraba ,Nasarawa,Adamawa, Kaduna,kogi, Ogun,Oyo, Ondo and few other States. Mark my words....