alimiadedayo1:

I got you now a very Intelligent analysis but do you think the G5 issue will have much effect on Atiku? it will only have little effect cause most of the south eastern people will not vote apc, they hate tinibu with passion and the issue of muslim Muslim ticket will affect.. the day wike says vote tinibu, wike will loose rivers state , remember that was what happened to amechi today he was relegated in rivers politics because he supported a northern against Jonathan

You are very right. ..but, we underestimate the potentials of people in power (commissioners, special advisers and other aides, house of rep members) and their associates. These are hardcore machineries that will do anything to remain in power. These people in turn, have loads of people feeding under them.

That's the structure they talk about.

Elections are not won based on sentiments or emotions..

Look at rivers states for example, Governor Wike employs some political aides late last year..about 200,000 people....assume these guys are able to convince just 3 people each to do Wike's bidding...that's a massive 600,000 votes guaranteed somewhere.

I can tell you, where Wike goes..that party will win Rivers State.

1Dray:
Peter Obi is obviously winning. The odds are all tending to his favour.

See, you make all reasonable people LAUGH!

slivertongue:


The South will make or mar the candidates

No,north will.each of the three candidates has a region in the south.atiku ss(narrowly),tinubu sw(massively) obi se(massively).so the north is key.tinubu needs 35%

Tinubu believes he can sell his tribe of being a Yoruba to the South and then sell the Muslim-Muslim ticket to the North. He thinks that people in the South are more liberal compared to the northerners who only think about their religion, because it is easier for a christian to vote for a Muslim candidate than the other way round.

But the reality in Nigeria today speaks conversely to this because Christians are now fighting for their survival in this increasingly terrorized union. And some learned Muslims too in the North are now seeing the charade behind this Mu-Mu ticket as just being a mere political tool to win their votes rather than any ideological vision for their faith. And they also see the danger of Nigeria becoming more terrorized under a Muslim-Muslim rule, much to the advantage of ragtag backward-thinking terror brigands like Boko Haram rather than for moderate and progressive Muslims.

So this Muslim-Muslim ticket is more likely to fumble in the end than being an astute political bet.

Svoboda:


If Tinubu had chosen a christian vp from the north, he'd have been out of the race by now.

Forget about the optics, this election is Tinubus to lose.

The comment shows the naivety of so many online folks. They don't understand the Nigeria political terrain but always claim to know much.

Crvrider:


I think they are and it is largely between Atiku and kwankwaso. For those giving Tinubu a chance in the north is just wasting his/her time. However, if APC had a northern candidate then it may have affected the voting pattern.

I am sorry to say. This is a very naive position, and it has been gaining currency on this forum.

The apc is like a religion in the north, and presently, there are two faces to the apc. The first is Buhari. The second is Tinubu. It will take a fool to discountenance a ruling party whose stronghold is in the north on the premise that a non northerner is contesting. Maybe youre a millenial, if not, youd have known that elections are fluid and most times follow a familiar pathway.

garfield1:


No,north will.each of the three candidates has a region in the south.atiku ss(narrowly),tinubu sw(massively) obi se(massively).so the north is key.tinubu needs 35%

In the past regional sentiments came first but the advent of Buhari brought regional and religious sentiments to the fore now Tinubu is trying to reduce it to religious sentiments and this will hurt APC the more even Buhari knows that. I repeat like always, Tinubu can easily win if the South is behind him, sadly Obi is more at home in the South. Atiku and Kwankwaso are more at home in the North.

1Dray:


You can't force 2023 election to be between Atiku and Tinubu, when Tinubu is not visibly in the race. The race is obviously between Obi and Atiku.

Svoboda:


I am sorry to say. This is a very naive position, and it has been gaining currency on this forum.

The apc is like a religion in the north, and presently, there are two faces to the apc. The first is Buhari. The second is Tinubu. It will take a fool to discountenance a ruling party whose stronghold is in the north on the premise that a non northerner is contesting. Maybe youre a millenial, if not, youd have known that elections are fluid and most times follow a familiar pathway.

APC is a religion of destruction, hunger and death. Majority of us ain't pleased with Buhari's performance and can't be deceived to vote APC

beejaay:

U mean tinubu will have 50% and Atiku and kwankwasonwill share 45% among themselves?? Do you think that is even remotely possible?? Ask yourself and tell yourself the truth.. We can kid ourselves all we want but the truth is staring us in the face.. Tinubu made a big mistake with the Muslim Muslim ticket and I'm sure he will be regretting now.. Every great strategist fumble sometimes and this time for tinubu is not a great time to do so.. Tinubu can't even have 35% overall from NE and NW, it's not possible mathematically..

Keep in mind that over 80% of the votes from the christians in those regions will not go to any if Tinubu or atiku.... I doubt that your assumed 35%

slivertongue:


In the past regional sentiments came first but the advent of Buhari brought regional and religious sentiments to the fore now Tinubu is trying to reduce it to religious sentiments and this will hurt APC the more even Buhari knows that. I repeat like always, Tinubu can easily win if the South is behind him, sadly Obi is more at home in the South. Atiku and Kwankwaso are more at home in the North.

Tinubu is not the one bringing religious sentiments.choosing a Muslim as running mate doesn't denote religion.tinubu is also at home up north

adioolayi:


You are very right. ..but, we underestimate the potentials of people in power (commissioners, special advisers and other aides, house of rep members) and their associates. These are hardcore machineries that will do anything to remain in power. These people in turn, have loads of people feeding under them.

That's the structure they talk about.

Elections are not won based on sentiments or emotions..

Look at rivers states for example, Governor Wike employs some political aides late last year..about 200,000 people....assume these guys are able to convince just 3 people each to do Wike's bidding...that's a massive 600,000 votes guaranteed somewhere.

I can tell you, where Wike goes..that party will win Rivers State.

but do you think all 200k aides will deliver the job for him? many of them will betray him and collect the money I understand structure is very important which I am hardcore believer of it but sometimes political machinery can fail due to the situation that warrant it

Pinito:
The person at disadvantage here is Atiku the votes have been divided most especially with emergency of PO from SE, Shettima as VP for APC from NE. Without PO on the ballot box Atiku might be lucky to win with a landslide but odds have changed BAT is cruising on an advantage the emergency of PO is a blessing in disguise for BAT.

Dreamer.

Okealaaye:




See, you make all reasonable people LAUGH!

You you count yourself among the reasonable people?

Scamburster:

You you count yourself among the reasonable people?

See your failing saviour:

Okealaaye:


See your failing saviour:

You obviously sound like a kid you are.

alimiadedayo1:

but do you think all 200k aides will deliver the job for him? many of them will betray him and collect the money I understand structure is very important which I am hardcore believer of it but sometimes political machinery can fail due to the situation that warrant it

I agree with you 100% ...Political strategies, and other strategies are planned with the view of delivering 100%....if 100% is not delivered...a 70% delivery is a pass mark.

Politicians are very smart and stubborn.

I am truly looking forward to 2023 elections ...I want to know if it will change permutations of Nigeria's elections or it will be same of same

garfield1:


Tinubu is not the one bringing religious sentiments.choosing a Muslim as running mate doesn't denote religion.tinubu is also at home up north

That is how it is here clerics on both sides are up in arms campaigning for or against. Of course religious tensions since Buhari came to power has been heightened so the Christian community ain't sleeping over the rhetorics of some fanatical Islamic clerics. Most Northern dwellers ain't deceived that the APC ticket is purely politics. Yes Tinubu is at home over here but his near indifference in the face of the horrific performance of the APC has affected the chances of the APC in the North. Most Northerners are weighing the state of security and economy before Buhari's administration and under Buhari to determine the direction to vote.

Scamburster:

Dreamer.

wailer

naijapips04:
The north is never divided. You will learn with this election.

People are making intelligent analysis, you're here capping nonsense!

Buddha3:


Nigerians were not as hungry and jobless in 1993 as they are today.

Alliances crumble in the face of hunger and fight for survival.

If I had the time, I'd have done you a bit of service by laying bare some of these alliances you and Tinubu are banking on, so you'll see the hollowness embedded in their very cores.

Am not projecting Tinubu am only telling you that with the right alliance. A southerner will defeat a northerner in the north, it has happened before and can still happen again.

rippa:

60% of southern votes is going to Obi

Yinmu

BlackKafka:


Of 36 states, Obi is only sure of getting 25% in at most 14 states (5 SE, 6 SS, Lagos, Abuja); He is nowhere in this race, and both He and Datti know this - Datti is barely even campaigning up north. The race is still between Atiku and Tinubu.

February 25 is almost here, wait for it.

Okealaaye:




See, you make all reasonable people LAUGH!

Sorry, you mean to say unreasonable and deluded people?

garfield1:


Yes.tinubu can get 50%,atiku 35% kwankwaso 10%

You people are just overrating Tinubu.
How can Tinubu defeat Kwakwanso and Atiku in the North?
Is this a joke?!
Apart from Lagos which he will even struggle to win and SW, where exactly is Tinubu going to win?
All the Fulanis in the North Will leave Atiku and vote Tinubu!
All the Hausas in the North Will leave Kwakwanso and vote Tinubu!
All the Igbos in the North will leave Obi and vote Tinubu!
Wonderment.

Sunnyja:
You people are just overrating Tinubu.
How can Tinubu defeat Kwakwanso and Atiku in the North?
Is this a joke?!
Apart from Lagos which he will even struggle to win and SW, where exactly is Tinubu going to win?
All the Fulanis in the North Will leave Atiku and vote Tinubu!
All the Hausas in the North Will leave Kwakwanso and vote Tinubu!
All the Igbos in the North will leave Obi and vote Tinubu!
Wonderment.

Who told you that the hausas and fulanis are with kwankwaso and atiku? Both are Fulanis who are minorities and they will surely divide votes among the three equally

Ennoloa:
The North is usually feared due to high turnout and block vote

2011 Ribadu & Buhari divided the North vote with Buhari taking up to 60% but Goodluck won

2023: Atiku, Kwankwanso & Tinubu is going to divide the NE & NW votes.

Two simple questions

Who would win NE & NW total votes with at least 60% this year?

Can a divided NE & NW win the election for anybody this year?

that no guarantee. Not this time

PDP and Atiku abubakar are running against about 15 northern APC governor's... It's a tough call ...

Ennoloa:
1. Tinubu might get up to 50% Total vote from NE & NW [Probablity tho]

Your head dey pain you,….
Seriously you need to go for check up

In sagamu here o...BAT is a gonna...PDP ti take over...

kafeii123:


Keep in mind that over 80% of the votes from the christians in those regions will not go to any if Tinubu or atiku.... I doubt that your assumed 35%

I k kw.. I'm just being generous

HardMirror:
hehehe funny he believes atiku and kwankwanso would share 45% nairalanders are comedians.

You read somethings and just laff.. Yes we can throw banter all we want, shout support for our preferred candidates all we want but one we should never do is lie to ourselves to the truth staring us in the face.. Why will anyone think tinubu will have 50% or even a whole 40% in any of NE, NW, and NC..