byteem:


Dundee
. Its the reverse .. the core north with 13 states is where Baba blue is relying on for votes .. block votes from North east and north west will be shared by Atiku 40% Kwankwaso 30%and Obi 20%.. tinubu 10 % . Tinubu getting 10% of core northern votes will mean he spent a lot of money .. if kwankwaso drops aspiration before election then Atiku gets 70% of core northern block votes and obi gets 20% cause of northern christians.. it pays Obi for kwankwaso to remain stubborn and sit in so he can split atiku votes in core north only then are Obi's chances very bright .. if Kwankwaso drops Atiku likely to win..

North central 7 states Obi gets 60% of block votes Atiku 25% tinubu 15% only cause of Kogi and Kwara

in the reverse same block votes from.east and south south comprising 11 states will be majorly to Obi on 70% Atiku 20% and tinubu 10% if he is lucky with Wike..

South west 6 states Tinubu gets 55% if he js lucky and spends good money ,Obi gets 35% Atiku gets 10

..if Buhari plan works to starve funds from politicians the ratio favours Obi in South and Atiku in North..Works immensely against Mr money Man of Lagos

Conclusion its a tight race between Atiku and Obi .. Tinubu stands no chance even with all his money..US dollar expiration policy as at last year and newly signed electoral law already did damage to plans.. CBN naira change only and surely nails the coffin, but this is Nigeria .. you never know..

Politics is not for IPOB cavemen pls.
Anyone who's projecting or predicting Atiku and Obi to come first and second respectively or vice versa is a political neophyte.

My assertion is not founded on assumption but the obvious reality.
Even the PDP stalwarts are aware of this brazen reality that's why they're doing all they can to convince Obi to step down.

I can easily guess that you're one of those online watchers that peg their judgement on the internet frenzy.

I'm a field professional/ contractor and I've traveled well enough to educate you on the local politics in different parts of the country.

Even in Benue state where many of you guys think Obi will dominate is mere fallacy.
I've being in Benue, Otukpo precisely coming and going since last year August and the reality is that Obi and Atiku are cancelling themselves out in their support base.

Let me not waste too much of my time on a novice cos February 25th is close.

Again if I may ask you, when was the last time you supported and predicted a presidential candidate and he won? You guys with very poor sense of judgment will come online and be consoling yourself with 'feel good' analysis.

Malory:
Shatap and get lost. Otu.

from yoruba to igbo confused thing. Oya give me another

garfield1:


True.I thought abdulazeez is from Adamawa southl.why is he vying for central? Lp candidates in Adamawa boycotted obi rally

Yes Abdul-Aziz is from Mayobelwa, in Adamawa South, but he seems to he has Yola root, that why he is going for central.. But the main reseaon why he didn't contest for Adamawa south, is because Christians are the dominant religion there, and he cannot defeat a PDP Christian candidate..

Not all LP candidate boycotted the rally, it was The guber candidate and few others.. There's a religious war between LP PCC in Adamawa and the guber candidate.. The Christians wants to hold on to Obi structures in Adamawa in case if Obi wins, they would be the ones to take Adamawa quota for key appointments.. The Christians in Adamawa and in North generally got nothing under Buhari..

Penguin2:
Vawulence overdose 😜.

I saw the video on BBC Hausa Facebook Page where Atiku said he’s in talks with Kwankwaso and Obi and expects one of them to step down for him, and Hausa people were abusing the hell out of him.

Seems northerners rate Kwankwaso above Atiku.

This election will spring surprises.

Atiku is seen as a thief in the North. Forget the media

garfield1:


Mubi and yola north are Muslim dominated.sen abbo is not obidient

Which Yola North is Muslim dominated..?

The Igbos alone in Yola North can give Obi 10% add the Christians indigenes and other Christians from across Nigeria....

Yola North is cosmopolitan..

ImmaculateJOE:

Yes Abdul-Aziz is from Mayobelwa, in Adamawa South, but he seems to he has Yola root, that why he is going for central.. But the main reseaon why he didn't contest for Adamawa south, is because Christians are the dominant religion there, and he cannot defeat a PDP Christian candidate..

Not all LP candidate boycotted the rally, it was The guber candidate and few others.. There's a religious war between LP PCC in Adamawa and the guber candidate.. The Christians wants to hold on to Obi structures in Adamawa in case if Obi wins, they would be the ones to take Adamawa quota for key appointments.. The Christians in Adamawa and in North generally got nothing under Buhari..

I want obi to do well in Adamawa but honestly I don't see him getting it.highest he can get is 20%.most of his votes will be from southern Adamawa and many will vote atiku.this is atiku's state,sentiments are high for him.most Adamawa people I meet prefer atiku.obi willdo better in taraba having up to 30% but not Adamawa.except he gets good votes in madagali and michika..

Lp coordinators in ne also joined pdp

ImmaculateJOE:

Which Yola North is Muslim dominated..?

The Igbos alone in Yola North can give Obi 10% add the Christians indigenes and other Christians from across Nigeria....

Yola North is cosmopolitan..

Didnt know.what of jimeta

garfield1:


Didnt know.what of jimeta

Jimeta is same as Yola North.

Some have been trying to officially change the Name from Yola North LGA to Jimeta LGA..

Oh, what a very nice reply from Obi campaign to Atiku.

garfield1:


I want obi to do well in Adamawa but honestly I don't see him getting it.highest he can get is 20%.most of his votes will be from southern Adamawa and many will vote atiku.this is atiku's state,sentiments are high for him.most Adamawa people I meet prefer atiku.obi willdo better in taraba having up to 30% but not Adamawa.except he gets good votes in madagali and michika..

Lp coordinators in ne also joined pdp

Before now, I was not sure about 25%, but after yesterday it became clear to me that it is much easier for Obi to get 25% in Adamawa than for him to do that in SW apart from Lagos..

If he can win Numan Federation that has up to 4LGAs then he can..

ImmaculateJOE:

Jimeta is same as Yola North.

Some have been trying to officially change the Name from Yola North LGA to Jimeta LGA..

Maybe it should be a different lga...
Northern xtians are not marginalized.they are holding sgf.they enjoyed under gej and obj and I know tinubu will appease them wellll

ImmaculateJOE:

Before now, I was not sure about 25%, but after yesterday it became clear to me that it is much easier for Obi to get 25% in Adamawa than for him to do that in SW apart from Lagos..

If he can win Numan Federation that has up to 4LGAs then he can..

You are basing your calculation on rallies.that means obi will fail in taraba since he didnt pull crowd there even though they have more xtians.
Outside se and rivers,Lagos is the surest state for obi to get 25%.I just returned from my lga and obi is lagging behind in grassroot presence.it is not about social media noise but strength at the rural areas

ImmaculateJOE:

Before now, I was not sure about 25%, but after yesterday it became clear to me that it is much easier for Obi to get 25% in Adamawa than for him to do that in SW apart from Lagos..

If he can win Numan Federation that has up to 4LGAs then he can..

Numan federation would traditionally vote Obi, but they're conflicted currently, because Atiku is one of them.

Are you there

ImmaculateJOE:

Yes Abdul-Aziz is from Mayobelwa, in Adamawa South, but he seems to he has Yola root, that why he is going for central.. But the main reseaon why he didn't contest for Adamawa south, is because Christians are the dominant religion there, and he cannot defeat a PDP Christian candidate..

Not all LP candidate boycotted the rally, it was The guber candidate and few others.. There's a religious war between LP PCC in Adamawa and the guber candidate.. The Christians wants to hold on to Obi structures in Adamawa in case if Obi wins, they would be the ones to take Adamawa quota for key appointments.. The Christians in Adamawa and in North generally got nothing under Buhari..

In case if Obi wins? How e wan win?

You think this is Anambra election?

If Obi can secure 70,000 votes in a South western state outside of Lagos, I will doff my cap for him...

Hands for ObiDient movement

JAMO84:
Non of the PDLPNPG5 Candidate will step down for anyone, they should share the votes between themselves. I never imagined it is Peter Obi God will use to make it easier for Asiwaju to be President. He should appoint Obi as Nigeria Ambassador to Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Egypt, one year in each Country.

You mean 16 million stupid people have remained stupid from 2015 for APC and old rickety senile sick corrupt Tinubu after all their sufferings?

Bonesbreaker:
lol obi will win this election be watching

We are not talking about spare parts chairman kid!

ImmaculateJOE:

Buhari was difficult to sell to his Christians base..

And you expect Core Northerners to vote your big time scammer Pithobi ? You reason with anus

Aufbauh:


Politics is not for IPOB cavemen pls.
Anyone who's projecting or predicting Atiku and Obi to come first and second respectively or vice versa is a political neophyte.

My assertion is not founded on assumption but the obvious reality.
Even the PDP stalwarts are aware of this brazen reality that's why they're doing all they can to convince Obi to step down.

I can easily guess that you're one of those online watchers that peg their judgement on the internet frenzy.

I'm a field professional/ contractor and I've traveled well enough to educate you on the local politics in different parts of the country.

Even in Benue state where many of you guys think Obi will dominate is mere fallacy.
I've being in Benue, Otukpo precisely coming and going since last year August and the reality is that Obi and Atiku are cancelling themselves out in their support base.

Let me not waste too much of my time on a novice cos February 25th is close.

Again if I may ask you, when was the last time you supported and predicted a presidential candidate and he won? You guys with very poor sense of judgment will come online and be consoling yourself with 'feel good' analysis.

Pardon them for their stupidity. They reason with Emotions not with Brain

Even Kwankwaso, only if he is fool will he step down for Atiku. Let everybody go to the poll and test their popularity.

Mordecai:


Numan federation would traditionally vote Obi, but they're conflicted currently, because Atiku is one of them.

Atiku is from Jada, it has nothing to with Numan Federation, except that they are in same senatorial district.