Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State says that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, will not win the presidential election.


He believes that the opinion polls showing Mr. Obi’s lead are not accurate and unreliable, as the sample size was too small.

Governor El-Rufai claims that a more reliable poll conducted by his team showed a close contest between the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress, with a large percentage of undecided voters.

He argues that Obi doesn’t have the support of enough states, as he is only polling well in a few southeastern and South-south states and in some Christian enclaves in the North. He also accuses the Labour Party campaign of relying on ethnicity and religious bigotry, which he says will not get them anywhere.

“I was a teaching assistant for statistics, I understand it. I am not talking as a politician or a layman. The most important thing in looking at any opinion poll is the sample followed by the methodology.

“When you have hundreds of millions of registered voters and you are sampling three thousand registered voters, your results are unreliable, will have a high margin of errors and most of these polls (predicting Peter Obi as the winner of the election) are like that,” El-Rufai said in an interview with TVC News.


“All the opinion polls conducted, the Bloomberg one, the ANAP one and the Ngozi Iweala one all use the telephone. Only 31 per cent of voters registered contain phone numbers. When you pick your sample out of the 31 per cent, from day one, your result is dead on arrival.

“I can take every one of these opinion polls and deconstruct them because I understand what is sampling and what is a methodology and those polls are a joke with the greatest respect,” the governor said.

He added that one reliable poll conducted shows that the election is going to be a close contest between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

“We have done a poll with a sample of nearly 40,000 across Nigeria and the results of the polls show that we are ahead, and it’s going to be a tight election. There is a large percentage of undecided voters. We must work hard to swing the undecided to our side but we are ahead.

“How can Peter Obi win any election? He is polling one per cent in Sokoto, two per cent in Katsina, and five per cent in Kano. That is where the votes are, all states are not equal.

“The fact that he is doing 70 per cent in Anambra State does not mean somebody doing 10 per cent in Kano is not better than him. Kano is four million votes, and the number of votes in Anambra is the size of one local government in Kaduna State.

“Peter Obi will win southeastern states, South-south, where else? He is not polling well in the South-west other than a drop in the ocean in Lagos.

“He is polling in the Christian enclaves in the north, but how many are they? Peter Obi cannot win the election, he doesn’t have the number of states, and he doesn’t have 25 per cent in more than 16 states, he can’t go anywhere.

“Peter Obi is a Nollywood actor and that is all he will speak about. This election is between the APC and the PDP because they have the footprints and the ‘spate’. Ethnicity and religious bigotry will not take you anywhere and that is what the Labour Party campaign is about,” El-Rufai said.

Abeg who give hell rufai the sour beans wey dey run am for belle these days


Abi hem na senior urchin?

This man hell refire fit kill himself when he hear Obi take over.