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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls (1948 Views)
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Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 1:56pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
wegevv: You are right. Further explication has just proven that that provision might end up being more ambiguous and technical than we have always thought. This is going to be the toughest election in Nigeria’s history. 2 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by ImmaculateJOE(m): 1:57pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn: Omoh, E choke.. LP held sway.. But what area of Ogun state was this poll conducted..? If it is in the urban arear, can LP do half of what she did here in rural areas of Ogun state..? 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by ojoadeola: 1:58pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
wegevv: He would have gotten that in January, but that has changed now with the current Naira swap crisis and the rallies in Lagos. The reality has dawned that Obi does not have the followership as presumed. He will do well in Lagos, but would not perform well in other SW States. The current Naira swap is tilting SW voters toward Tinubu, and this may shore up his performance in the region. Atiku will lose Osun - no thanks to the Tribunal judgement pending at the Appeal Court. It has removed the shocks in the party's wheel in the State and the people are rooting for Tinubu now because he is being touted as a son of the soil |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by buchilla: 1:59pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:Abuja is not a state. The law says 25%in 2/3 of the State= 24. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Urchin1: 2:03pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Ofunaofu:Obi will win with a landslide 😂🤣 |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 2:06pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
ojoadeola: Firstly you’re entitled to your opinion. But the scientific poll done by bantupage disagrees with you. Secondly, you made a valid point about “shy voters” in the undisclosed/undecided population. It is possible but various western studies have shown that the effects of this is usually minimal. It also tends to be regional. It might be taboo for a Core Northerner to admit that they are voting for Peter Obi in Sokoto just like it might be taboo for a South Easterner to admit that the support Tinubu in Anambra |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 2:43pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
ojoadeola: Thanks for your kind contribution but according to every credible source the rallies in Lagos were a tremendous success. I'm sure most Nigerians are now experienced enough to dismiss propaganda pictures. I'm also not sure how the SW population can blame anyone other than the current APC government for the Naira redesign crisis. And PDP still have the sitting governor in Osun state as far as I'm aware. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Ricky97(m): 3:06pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
I think the analysis done on this poll is near perfect just that i don't see APC having 35% in Akwa Ibom. LP will definitely pull a huge surprise in this election, they shouldn't be underrated at all. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 3:59pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Ricky97: Indeed Bantupage did great work gathering these polls. NOI ANAP's final poll just came out moments ago too. Obi still has a comfortable lead in the popular vote according to them 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by obailala(m): 4:21pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn:Hmm.. This is very interesting an encouraging... Hopefully the kids in the 3rd class didn't just follow a herd mentality (i.e. everyone else going for LP cos the first few people did) . |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by obailala(m): 4:32pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
wegevv:What you said makes a lot of sense. I've always wondered why these polls returned lots of 'undecided' voters. But now it makes sense - some people feel shy to menion who they actually intend to vote for, especially given the sentiments in their immediate environment. Undecided voters in the SE are likely people who feel shy/embarassed/afraid to openly say they're voting Tinubu/Atiku. Likewise in the northern areas, undecided votes may very likely be people who feel shy/embarassed/afraid to say they're voting OBI. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Princesaha: 5:08pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
I understand all your fears but let me be frank here. There is no state in the Southwest that Obi won't get 25%. Anybody that disagrees with this can stake with me. I have 50k ready for this. More Western States would be visited before the election day. Obi's Popularity is growing rapidly in the West. The whole Southern zone consists of 17 states. Now add the following states to the list. 1) Benue 2) Plateau 3) Nassarawa 4) Kogi 5) Niger 6) Taraba 7) Gombe ![]() 9) Kaduna Then there are other likely states which requires more effort and he will grab 25% in those states. And he will visit those states before 25th and they are Bornu State and Kebbi state. Most of you have written Kebbi off forgetting that there are at least 30% Christian population there especially in the Southern part. My conversation with a Christian friend there shows that most of them Christians are rooting for Obi. More efforts is needed in Kebbi state. Obi advisors and Lp stalwarts should do something about it. As for Bornu State, those niggas there are doing a wonderful work and are they are highly dedicated in delivering Obi. Back to my first Comment, anybody that thinks that Obi won't get 25% in any Southwest state should bet with me on that. Thank you all. 2 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 8:42pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Princesaha: I hope you’re right. The truth is, if LP are doing so well on election day that they are getting 25% in all southwest states then they will likely be over performing in other areas like Kwara. He definitely has a viable path to 25% in 24 states. In fact he has multiple ways to get there |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 10:55am On Feb 21, 2023 |
More takeaways: - There is one state where LP hit 25% in this adjusted poll but where Jonathan got less than 25% in 2015: Niger State. Atiku only got 25.59% there in 2019. LP's support could be overrated here - There are 4 states where Jonathan hit 25% in 2015 but LP got less than 25% in this adjusted poll: Kwara, Osun, Oyo, Adamawa. - Jonathan got 19% in Zamfara in 2015. Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara. - Atiku hit 25% in 2019 in all the states that LP also hit 25% in this adjusted poll. Atiku is still on the ballot this time around Places where this poll is giving LP significantly higher percentages than Jonathan in 2015: - Benue +27.6 - Plateau +26.61 - Niger +22.64 - Edo +21.08 - FCT +17.51 - Nassarawa +11.93 That is 4 NC states plus FCT and Edo. The poll is clearly hinting at an Obidient movement in the middle belt. I'll add this to the opening post for more visibility. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 4:55pm On Feb 25, 2023 |
Looks like Bantupage saw something in Niger state based on results so far ❤️ |
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