The outcome of this election is obvious. It has been from the very beginning. If you understand Nigerian politics, you will know this.

3 things influence politics in Nigeria:

1. Religion.
2. Tribe.
3. Money.

Due to the CBN Naira Redesign/Cashless Policy, the influence of money will be significantly curtailed in the coming election.

That leaves the first two - religion and tribe.

First, let's talk about tribe. The first thing you need to know is that every Nigerian is a TRIBALIST.

Every single one of them.

They say they're not, they are. In the days before the election, some people from other tribes have endorsed a candidate different from their own tribes.

Why?

Because of the fear of being cancelled. Weakness of character and mind. It's also a way of virtue signalling.

People have been threatened and called "traitors" for supporting a candidate that's not from their tribe.

Even high-level, supposedly enlightened individuals could not hide the degree of tribalism inherent in them.

It's human nature. The tribe comes first.

Next is religion.

Religion has turned people into puppets with the strings firmly in the hands of the clergy. Independence and intelligence is nothing when it comes to religion.

Because as you know, religion speaks for God.

By the way, you've gotta love the drama with which Oyakhilome announced his preference in the coming election.

All that drama just to say "Vote for my candidate"

Anyway, what religion does really well is take decision making out of the hands of their members. By telling them EXACTLY what "God" wants them to do.

Religious leaders have now leveraged this to endorse and aggressively push their candidates.

Nowadays, Islam does a better job of controlling its members than Christianity does.

As such, Islam has more influence on the actions of its members than Christianity.

Tinubu knows this. That's why he went against the hitherto established Christian-Muslim/Muslim-Christian formula.

A Northern Christian candidate is as useful as a plastic straw to a starving man.

He's banking HEAVILY on religion as a factor. Especially now that money could be difficult to use.

But...

That's NOT going to be enough. It's not going to save him. He will NOT be able to win the election.

Because whatever Tinubu thinks he can offer, Atiku can offer better.

Tinubu scorned a WHOLE religion because he wants to ingratiate himself with a particular set of people.

While people from his tribe who are christian may not actively punish him by voting another candidate, they may abandon him by not voting at all.

INEC PVC collection statistics corroborate this.

Now, Tinubu is weak in all the three factors that influence election in Nigeria:

1. Religion - he alienated a WHOLE religion while banking on another religion that is predominantly controlled by another tribe who have a candidate in the race.

2. Tribe - he's been abandoned by his tribe and he's running mate does not have the clout to match Atiku or Kwankwanso. Buhari's halfhearted endorsements would not be enough.

3. Money - FG's new monetary policy has laid waste to this part of Tinubu's strategy.

Back to Atiku,

He has the highest chance of winning the election. In fact, I'm going to say that Atiku will win the 2023 presidential election.

Why?

He's from a religion that has a vice-like grip on its members and from the tribe that controls that ENTIRE religion in Nigeria.

Atiku represents eight more years of seat at the cradle of power for both his religion and tribe. What Tinubu offers is nothing in comparison.

It also happens that the tribe is the most populous in Nigeria.

If you're a newscaster, start learning how to say His Excellency, President Atiku Abubakar now.

Of the 3 factors that influence election in Nigeria, Atiku is adamantine in 2 - Religion and Tribe. He's probably not weak in the third one either.

Unto Obi

It was very easy to dismiss him at the start of the election campaign but not so anymore.

People forget that Igbo is the second-most populous tribe in Nigeria.

And they're largely loyal to him.

But he's not as strong on the religion front. He can expect a ton of the Catholic Christian vote as those would be in the control of Igbos anyway. Plus, some of the Pentecostal vote since Oyakhilome endorsed him.

But other big Christian denominations have failed to endorse him. Not overtly, anyway.

On the money front, he'd have the same issue as the remaining candidate.

But NONE of this would be enough to save him from being defeated by Atiku on Saturday.

In essence, nobody can stop Atiku tomorrow.

You don’t know what you are doing

This one dey deceive himself…


yeye

koladata:
You don’t know what you are doing

The op is too delusional to understand himself.

.

By evening tomorrow you will realise that what you wrote here is utter rubbish!

I think this is a nice write up , logical one at best ,
I don’t give a punk about any politician ,…
I have my candidate though , I would urge everyone to vote their candidates as well without intimidation, elections will come and go , we will all still remain Nigerians , and to suffer or enjoy the electoral choices we’ve made ..
Ciao ✌️✊

U wrote all these epistle to tell us that u are hoping Atiku wins tomorrow.
LOL

jeromestarks:

The op is too delusional to understand himself.

Seriously you used the right word I was looking for