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If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there - Politics - Nairaland

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If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kayser1: 12:44am On Aug 12, 2023
Reading the gung ho views of a lot of Nigerians on the supposed strength of our army and how it would sweep aside the Nigerien forces if they invade as they seem increasingly likely to do is amusing.

It is amazing how so many people believe that an army that has failed to pacify Borno state, just one of thirty states in Nigeria, will successfully invade and occupy a country bigger than Nigeria. The levels of self delusion are mind boggling. Let’s be clear, with its overwhelming firepower advantage over the Nigeriens at some point the Nigerian army and any Ecowas force can expect to overwhelm the Capital Niamey, albeit, only after heavy and costly street to street urban combat, the bloodiest type of modern combat as the battles in places like Bakhmut demonstrate.
Then what? Niamey occupies only a tiny fraction of a vast sprawling land mass housing 25 million people facing a foreign invader acting as a proxy for a hated former colonial master. Every town, every district, every city every village would become a hotbed of ferocious resistance and insurgency.

Every road, every street, every bridge a site for an ambush. At nightfall every district a hotbed of insurgency, an unseen enemy everywhere . They won’t be facing 10,000 Nigerien soldiers they will be facing tens possibly hundreds of thousands of insurgents and militias defending their land from an army of occupation.

You might take Niamey with 20,000 soldiers but how many will you need to successfully occupy a country of 25 million people. Even Niamey where support for the coup is intense will never fully be controlled by any invading force. The American military, the most powerful armed force in the world never fully controlled the Iraqi capital Baghdad throughout its 12 year occupation of Iraq.
Even in Liberia and Sierra Leone where they faced poorly trained drugged up thugs with virtually no public support, the Nigerian led Ecomog forces never really controlled anything beyond the capitals Monrovia and Freetown and a few other big towns. Virtually the whole of the countryside was dominated by the rebels. In Niger where the coupists enjoy mass support what hope have they of pacifying even a fraction of the country.

How many combat troops has the Nigerian army? Possibly about 130,000. To successfully occupy a country the size of Niger, a much bigger nation than Liberia or Sierra Leone, you would need a force at least treble that with more in reserve to replace casualties and rotate troops. In Liberia and Sierra Leone the Nigerian army lost thousands of troops to the insurgency it faced there. Facing a popular insurgency in a much bigger country they will be slaughtered en masse.

Our army has no major air lift capability to transport troops around the battle space Our logistics has always been the weakest aspect of force deployment. How do we transport troops around a country that vast with our ramshackle military supply system? Why are we so blind? And make no mistake the insurgents will find a lot of external support. Forget Mali and Burkina Fasso, the real power to be feared in the region is Algeria. They have one of the most powerful militaries not just in Africa but in the global south. They have always been anti French having fought a bloody war of independence against the French in the 50's at the cost of a million lives and they won’t take kindly to a French proxy war on their doorstep. They will be even more furious at a black African regional power playing policeman in their historic sphere of influence. They will never accept a West African dictated settlement in what they regard as part of historic Arabia and will do everything in their power to undermine it.

They share a 600 mile border with Niger and a tsunami of weapons including Algerian special forces, amongst the most lethal in the 3rd world will flood across it.

The Nigerian army will stand no chance of a successful outcome in such a hostile terrain and what of the army's cohesion. Let’s face it Nigeria is a hotch potch of nations. A significant portion of our army has traditionally come from the far north. The kith and kin of the country we want to invade and whose people we are going to kill. Niger was part of the old Sokoto caliphate and was only cut off from it by the colonial division of the territory between France and Britain. They share deep cultural, linguistic and religious links transcending these colonial borders. How long before Hausa Fulani soldiers in the Nigerian army get tired of seeing their kinsman killed by their own guns. How long before they start thinking that it is only happening because they are being ordered to do so by a Yoruba president. How long before northern soldiers in the Nigerian army start accusing their Yoruba and Ibo colleagues of using excessive force against their blood relatives.

We have not thought this through. The Nigerian army has a snowballs chance in hell of successfully invading and occupying Niger. It is a fool’s errand against what is a popular anti colonial movement in the country. An invasion will spark a conflagration of violence against an invading the force the likes of which we have not seen in our life time. The Nigerian army is not equipped, trained or set up to win such a war. They will be entering a bitterly hostile terrain unlike in Liberia and Sierra Leone were large sections of the populations welcomed them. They will be killed in their thousands. It is a proxy war for the benefit of western powers who don’t want to pay the blood price. We have no skin in this fight.

If we do end up going in the outcome cannot be in any doubt. We will face a crushing military defeat and the very likelihood that what we went in to Niger to defeat will end up returning to Nigeria, a bloody military coup back home by those we have sent to fight and die in a country that has done us no harm.

8 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by KingsleyOdafe(m): 12:48am On Aug 12, 2023
cool


Cowardice isn't part of Nigeria... Perhaps you are Biafran, unpatriotic undemocratic Biafrans can go fight for Niger as PMC

200 million Nigerian
22million Niger Republican

12,000 soldiers Niger
200,000 soldiers Nigerian



.

6 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by AllenSpencer: 12:50am On Aug 12, 2023
Read what you composed and try to find sense in it!

You trying to point out the incompetence of The Nigerian Armed Forces in Borno, forgetting it’s a guerrilla warfare. Do you think Boko Haram would last 24 hours if they were uniformed and had defined territory?

Oh! If I go by your analogy, it means the Russian and American forces are failures also, since they failed in Afghanistan too, which was also a guerilla warfare.

Hello, The Nigerian Armed Forces will decimate and redefine the Niger Armed Forces in weeks. Do you have an idea about our military might? Niger is not even a match!

5 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Alchemy528: 12:55am On Aug 12, 2023
Your business
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by beelon1020(m): 1:08am On Aug 12, 2023
OP! You be olodo jorr... this is not war but a military exercise, its 12 countries against one, nigeria is just one of the 12 countries... besides civilians are not suppose to get involved in any way, the military exercise is target only at the capital and the presidential villa that the president and his officials are been held hostage...
Is not about Tinubu but is about ECOWAS...
The military exercise is between military personnel only...
civilians will be allowed free passage at a point...

4 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kayser1: 1:08am On Aug 12, 2023
Alchemy528:
Your business
No you should read what you have posted. If you cant defeat a guerilla army you lose the war. America lost the war in Afghanistan because the Taliban are back in power. Which essentially means the taliban defeated the American army. If they didnt the Americans will still be ruling kabul. The Nigerien army will not waste their time fighting Nigeria conventionally. They will allow them in then attack their supply lines, ambush their isolated outposts and kill them in their hundreds and thousands,

1 Like

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kayser1: 1:13am On Aug 12, 2023
beelon1020:
OP! You be olodo jorr... this is not war but a military exercise, its 12 countries against one, nigeria is just one of the 12 countries... besides civilians are not suppose to get involved in any way, the military exercise is target only at the capital and the presidential villa that the president and his officials are been held hostage...
Is not about Tinubu but is about ECOWAS...
The military exercise is between military personnel only...
civilians will be allowed free passage at a point...

You think war is an olympic sport with set rules. If you take Niamey what about the rest of the country. You repeat the absured argument that this is not about Tinubu but is Ecowas. Is there any country called Ecowas. Does any soldier come from Ecowas. Has ecowas got any tax powers. It is a sign of Tinubu's weakness that he cant come out openly and confidently say he is going into Niger but instead is hiding behind Ecowas. When the dead bodies of soldiers start coming home is there a country called Ecowas where they will be buried. Let him send them and see what will happen. When Nigerian soldeirs decide to storm aso rock I am assuming he will redirect them to Ecowas hq. Yo are delusional

4 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Abufo: 1:16am On Aug 12, 2023
Kayser1:
Reading the gung ho views of a lot of Nigerians on the supposed strength of our army and how it would sweep aside the Nigerien forces if they invade as they seem increasingly likely to do is amusing.

It is amazing how so many people believe that an army that has failed to pacify Borno state, just one of thirty states in Nigeria, will successfully invade and occupy a country bigger than Nigeria. The levels of self delusion are mind boggling. Let’s be clear, with its overwhelming firepower advantage over the Nigeriens at some point the Nigerian army and any Ecowas force can expect to overwhelm the Capital Niamey, albeit, only after heavy and costly street to street urban combat, the bloodiest type of modern combat as the battles in places like Bakhmut demonstrate.
Then what? Niamey occupies only a tiny fraction of a vast sprawling land mass housing 25 million people facing a foreign invader acting as a proxy for a hated former colonial master. Every town, every district, every city every village would become a hotbed of ferocious resistance and insurgency.

Every road, every street, every bridge a site for an ambush. At nightfall every district a hotbed of insurgency, an unseen enemy everywhere . They won’t be facing 10,000 Nigerien soldiers they will be facing tens possibly hundreds of thousands of insurgents and militias defending their land from an army of occupation.

You might take Niamey with 20,000 soldiers but how many will you need to successfully occupy a country of 25 million people. Even Niamey where support for the coup is intense will never fully be controlled by any invading force. The American military, the most powerful armed force in the world never fully controlled the Iraqi capital Baghdad throughout its 12 year occupation of Iraq.
Even in Liberia and Sierra Leone where they faced poorly trained drugged up thugs with virtually no public support, the Nigerian led Ecomog forces never really controlled anything beyond the capitals Monrovia and Freetown and a few other big towns. Virtually the whole of the countryside was dominated by the rebels. In Niger where the coupists enjoy mass support what hope have they of pacifying even a fraction of the country.

How many combat troops has the Nigerian army? Possibly about 130,000. To successfully occupy a country the size of Niger, a much bigger nation than Liberia or Sierra Leone, you would need a force at least treble that with more in reserve to replace casualties and rotate troops. In Liberia and Sierra Leone the Nigerian army lost thousands of troops to the insurgency it faced there. Facing a popular insurgency in a much bigger country they will be slaughtered en masse.

Our army has no major air lift capability to transport troops around the battle space Our logistics has always been the weakest aspect of force deployment. How do we transport troops around a country that vast with our ramshackle military supply system? Why are we so blind? And make no mistake the insurgents will find a lot of external support. Forget Mali and Burkina Fasso, the real power to be feared in the region is Algeria. They have one of the most powerful militaries not just in Africa but in the global south. They have always been anti French having fought a bloody war of independence against the French in the 50's at the cost of a million lives and they won’t take kindly to a French proxy war on their doorstep. They will be even more furious at a black African regional power playing policeman in their historic sphere of influence. They will never accept a West African dictated settlement in what they regard as part of historic Arabia and will do everything in their power to undermine it.

They share a 600 mile border with Niger and a tsunami of weapons including Algerian special forces, amongst the most lethal in the 3rd world will flood across it.

The Nigerian army will stand no chance of a successful outcome in such a hostile terrain and what of the army's cohesion. Let’s face it Nigeria is a hotch potch of nations. A significant portion of our army has traditionally come from the far north. The kith and kin of the country we want to invade and whose people we are going to kill. Niger was part of the old Sokoto caliphate and was only cut off from it by the colonial division of the territory between France and Britain. They share deep cultural, linguistic and religious links transcending these colonial borders. How long before Hausa Fulani soldiers in the Nigerian army get tired of seeing their kinsman killed by their own guns. How long before they start thinking that it is only happening because they are being ordered to do so by a Yoruba president. How long before northern soldiers in the Nigerian army start accusing their Yoruba and Ibo colleagues of using excessive force against their blood relatives.

We have not thought this through. The Nigerian army has a snowballs chance in hell of successfully invading and occupying Niger. It is a fool’s errand against what is a popular anti colonial movement in the country. An invasion will spark a conflagration of violence against an invading the force the likes of which we have not seen in our life time. The Nigerian army is not equipped, trained or set up to win such a war. They will be entering a bitterly hostile terrain unlike in Liberia and Sierra Leone were large sections of the populations welcomed them. They will be killed in their thousands. It is a proxy war for the benefit of western powers who don’t want to pay the blood price. We have no skin in this fight.

If we do end up going in the outcome cannot be in any doubt. We will face a crushing military defeat and the very likelihood that what we went in to Niger to defeat will end up returning to Nigeria, a bloody military coup back home by those we have sent to fight and die in a country that has done us no harm.





My brother leave the deluded APC crowd from Lagos..........The armed forces like all other national institutions is stunted by nepotism,tribalism and corruption..........They will be decimated by a better motivated sahelian force fighting in their own back yard! The repercussion may spell the doom for the Nation called in Nigeria!
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kukutente23: 1:46am On Aug 12, 2023
I agree with some of the op
It will not be a conventional war as most govt supporters think. There are a lot of jihadists and insurgentsin Niger. You can guess who they will be against if it comes to choosing between their local army and an invading army.
The ramifications are to large to be a simple get-in get- out as most deluded pro- govt idealists believe. The Nigeriens who carried placards against Tinubu are not just going to dissappear into their homes and sweep the streets clean for a hostile army to pass through.

2 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Horus(m): 3:04am On Aug 12, 2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETnP5nGtPS0

Burkina Faso & Mali Representatives Arrive in Niger: We Won’t Accept Repeat of NATO’s Libya Adventure
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by AllenSpencer: 3:17am On Aug 12, 2023
Kukutente23:
I agree with some of the op
It will not be a conventional war as most govt supporters think. There are a lot of jihadists and insurgentsin Niger. You can guess who they will be against if it comes to choosing between their local army and an invading army.
The ramifications are to large to be a simple get-in get- out as most deluded pro- govt idealists believe. The Nigeriens who carried placards against Tinubu are not just going to dissappear into their homes and sweep the streets clean for a hostile army to pass through.

Seems you don’t know what’s playing!


The Jihadist are backed up by France! Didn’t you hear that France struck a maximum prison to get those arrested out?

Those are the same people they will re-use!

And Niger is not united too. The tribe of the disposed president are also on their toes and definitely cooking something up!

In the event of war, many factors will play, and of emotions should be put aside, The Niger army will be crippled fast cos any opposition to the coup will be heavily funded by the West.

2 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by OkayDaddy: 3:29am On Aug 12, 2023
It seems cowardice and lack of tact is part of the Obidient movement cos I don't understand the senseless tears of majority of Obidients in this matter.

NAF will bomb three things:
Air defence infrastructure
Power infrastructure
Telecoms infrastructure

Then, boots will be on ground.
Go and find out what Israel did to Lebanon for kidnapping (not even killing) 11 Israeli soldiers.
Israel bombed Lebanon 20 years backwards.

Ipobidients need to understand that warfare have gone beyond the nsogbu nonsense you do in your 5 tiny states.

3 Likes

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by limeta(f): 4:26am On Aug 12, 2023
In as much i dont want them to go
I still want them to go
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kukutente23: 6:47am On Aug 12, 2023
AllenSpencer:


Seems you don’t know what’s playing!


The Jihadist are backed up by France! Didn’t you hear that France stricken a maximum prison to get those arrested out?

Those are the same people they will re-use!

And Niger is not united too. The tribe of the disposed president are also on their toes and definitely cooking something up!

In the event of war, many factors will play, and of emotions should be put aside, The Niger army will be crippled fast cos any opposition to the coup will be heavily funded by the West.
Lol. Where did you get that idea that jihadists are backed by France? France has been fighting same jihadists for years in the Sahel. Or you think the army base they have in those countries is for sunbathing?
Meanwhile, France have denied that allegation of releasing jihadists that was levelled against them by Niger.
As i told you, the Niger army can't be your biggest worry when invading such a country. Its rather the terrorists in civilian clothes who are ready to blow themselves up. Most of you forget that Niger is made up of 7 provinces scattered all across its massive landmass. Each will have to be "liberated".
Go and ask US how it went down in Vietnam. They even chemical weapons still they lost a lot of men and equipment
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by orisa37: 6:53am On Aug 12, 2023
THE EMIR OF DAURA EMIRATE WANTS THE 4/5 OF HIS EMIRATE THAT IS IN DAURA INCORPORATED BACK INTO NIGERIA.
ALSO KANO RANO AND SOKOTO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kukutente23: 6:57am On Aug 12, 2023
Horus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETnP5nGtPS0

Burkina Faso & Mali Representatives Arrive in Niger: We Won’t Accept Repeat of NATO’s Libya Adventure
Ecowas has become a joke. See how they are talking down on ecowas.
I think Tinubu overestimated the importance or influence of ecowas. We once had this debate during my MBA classes whether ecowas was fulfilling its objectives or it has failed. We on the side of its failure found out that it has not met ANY of its stated objectives since 1975. Another funny thing is most ecowas countries were under military rule in 1975 when ecowas was founded. Yet its same ecowas Tinubu wants to use to bully Niger. It's a joke really
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by dnawah(m): 6:59am On Aug 12, 2023
KingsleyOdafe:
cool


Cowardice isn't part of Nigeria... Perhaps you are Biafran, unpatriotic undemocratic Biafrans can go fight for Niger as PMC

200 million Nigerian
22million Niger Republican

12,000 soldiers Niger
200,000 soldiers Nigerian



.
u never watched 300 abi?
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by a4cube: 7:01am On Aug 12, 2023
orisa37:
THE EMIR OF DAURA EMIRATE WANTS THE 4/5 OF HIS EMIRATE THAT IS IN DAURA INCORPORATED BACK INTO NIGERIA.
ALSO KANO RANO AND SOKOTO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
Pls explain in details.
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by a4cube: 7:03am On Aug 12, 2023
Kukutente23:

Ecowas has become a joke. See how they are talking down on ecowas.
I think Tinubu overestimated the importance or influence of ecowas. We once had this debate during my MBA classes whether ecowas was fulfilling its objectives or it has failed. We on the side of its failure found out that it has not met ANY of its stated objectives since 1975. Another funny thing is most ecowas countries were under military rule in 1975 when ecowas was founded. Yet its same ecowas Tinubu wants to use to bully Niger. It's a joke really
Is Ecowas formed 75 or 72?

1 Like

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Kukutente23: 7:15am On Aug 12, 2023
a4cube:
Is Ecowas formed 75 or 72?
75 Check Google undecided
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by helinues: 7:20am On Aug 12, 2023
So many educated illiterates everywhere
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Papiyardi007: 9:05am On Aug 12, 2023
Mr man, stop writing nonsense

Crazy people everywhere!!

Kayser1:
Reading the gung ho views of a lot of Nigerians on the supposed strength of our army and how it would sweep aside the Nigerien forces if they invade as they seem increasingly likely to do is amusing.

It is amazing how so many people believe that an army that has failed to pacify Borno state, just one of thirty states in Nigeria, will successfully invade and occupy a country bigger than Nigeria. The levels of self delusion are mind boggling. Let’s be clear, with its overwhelming firepower advantage over the Nigeriens at some point the Nigerian army and any Ecowas force can expect to overwhelm the Capital Niamey, albeit, only after heavy and costly street to street urban combat, the bloodiest type of modern combat as the battles in places like Bakhmut demonstrate.
Then what? Niamey occupies only a tiny fraction of a vast sprawling land mass housing 25 million people facing a foreign invader acting as a proxy for a hated former colonial master. Every town, every district, every city every village would become a hotbed of ferocious resistance and insurgency.

Every road, every street, every bridge a site for an ambush. At nightfall every district a hotbed of insurgency, an unseen enemy everywhere . They won’t be facing 10,000 Nigerien soldiers they will be facing tens possibly hundreds of thousands of insurgents and militias defending their land from an army of occupation.

You might take Niamey with 20,000 soldiers but how many will you need to successfully occupy a country of 25 million people. Even Niamey where support for the coup is intense will never fully be controlled by any invading force. The American military, the most powerful armed force in the world never fully controlled the Iraqi capital Baghdad throughout its 12 year occupation of Iraq.
Even in Liberia and Sierra Leone where they faced poorly trained drugged up thugs with virtually no public support, the Nigerian led Ecomog forces never really controlled anything beyond the capitals Monrovia and Freetown and a few other big towns. Virtually the whole of the countryside was dominated by the rebels. In Niger where the coupists enjoy mass support what hope have they of pacifying even a fraction of the country.

How many combat troops has the Nigerian army? Possibly about 130,000. To successfully occupy a country the size of Niger, a much bigger nation than Liberia or Sierra Leone, you would need a force at least treble that with more in reserve to replace casualties and rotate troops. In Liberia and Sierra Leone the Nigerian army lost thousands of troops to the insurgency it faced there. Facing a popular insurgency in a much bigger country they will be slaughtered en masse.

Our army has no major air lift capability to transport troops around the battle space Our logistics has always been the weakest aspect of force deployment. How do we transport troops around a country that vast with our ramshackle military supply system? Why are we so blind? And make no mistake the insurgents will find a lot of external support. Forget Mali and Burkina Fasso, the real power to be feared in the region is Algeria. They have one of the most powerful militaries not just in Africa but in the global south. They have always been anti French having fought a bloody war of independence against the French in the 50's at the cost of a million lives and they won’t take kindly to a French proxy war on their doorstep. They will be even more furious at a black African regional power playing policeman in their historic sphere of influence. They will never accept a West African dictated settlement in what they regard as part of historic Arabia and will do everything in their power to undermine it.

They share a 600 mile border with Niger and a tsunami of weapons including Algerian special forces, amongst the most lethal in the 3rd world will flood across it.

The Nigerian army will stand no chance of a successful outcome in such a hostile terrain and what of the army's cohesion. Let’s face it Nigeria is a hotch potch of nations. A significant portion of our army has traditionally come from the far north. The kith and kin of the country we want to invade and whose people we are going to kill. Niger was part of the old Sokoto caliphate and was only cut off from it by the colonial division of the territory between France and Britain. They share deep cultural, linguistic and religious links transcending these colonial borders. How long before Hausa Fulani soldiers in the Nigerian army get tired of seeing their kinsman killed by their own guns. How long before they start thinking that it is only happening because they are being ordered to do so by a Yoruba president. How long before northern soldiers in the Nigerian army start accusing their Yoruba and Ibo colleagues of using excessive force against their blood relatives.

We have not thought this through. The Nigerian army has a snowballs chance in hell of successfully invading and occupying Niger. It is a fool’s errand against what is a popular anti colonial movement in the country. An invasion will spark a conflagration of violence against an invading the force the likes of which we have not seen in our life time. The Nigerian army is not equipped, trained or set up to win such a war. They will be entering a bitterly hostile terrain unlike in Liberia and Sierra Leone were large sections of the populations welcomed them. They will be killed in their thousands. It is a proxy war for the benefit of western powers who don’t want to pay the blood price. We have no skin in this fight.

If we do end up going in the outcome cannot be in any doubt. We will face a crushing military defeat and the very likelihood that what we went in to Niger to defeat will end up returning to Nigeria, a bloody military coup back home by those we have sent to fight and die in a country that has done us no harm.
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Christistruth03: 9:15am On Aug 12, 2023
Horus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETnP5nGtPS0

Burkina Faso & Mali Representatives Arrive in Niger: We Won’t Accept Repeat of NATO’s Libya Adventure


Ordinary their own Jihadists in Mali and Bukuna Faso they cannot handle

They now want to add Niger to their headache

They too dey shake their tiny waist
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by delpee(f): 9:36am On Aug 12, 2023
beelon1020:
OP! You be olodo jorr... this is not war but a military exercise, its 12 countries against one, nigeria is just one of the 12 countries... besides civilians are not suppose to get involved in any way, the military exercise is target only at the capital and the presidential villa that the president and his officials are been held hostage...
Is not about Tinubu but is about ECOWAS...
The military exercise is between military personnel only...
civilians will be allowed free passage at a point...

Really? Are you aware of what happened in the days of ECOMOG?
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Goodman2023: 9:43am On Aug 12, 2023
Kayser1:
Reading the gung ho views of a lot of Nigerians on the supposed strength of our army and how it would sweep aside the Nigerien forces if they invade as they seem increasingly likely to do is amusing.

It is amazing how so many people believe that an army that has failed to pacify Borno state, just one of thirty states in Nigeria, will successfully invade and occupy a country bigger than Nigeria. The levels of self delusion are mind boggling. Let’s be clear, with its overwhelming firepower advantage over the Nigeriens at some point the Nigerian army and any Ecowas force can expect to overwhelm the Capital Niamey, albeit, only after heavy and costly street to street urban combat, the bloodiest type of modern combat as the battles in places like Bakhmut demonstrate.
Then what? Niamey occupies only a tiny fraction of a vast sprawling land mass housing 25 million people facing a foreign invader acting as a proxy for a hated former colonial master. Every town, every district, every city every village would become a hotbed of ferocious resistance and insurgency.

Every road, every street, every bridge a site for an ambush. At nightfall every district a hotbed of insurgency, an unseen enemy everywhere . They won’t be facing 10,000 Nigerien soldiers they will be facing tens possibly hundreds of thousands of insurgents and militias defending their land from an army of occupation.

You might take Niamey with 20,000 soldiers but how many will you need to successfully occupy a country of 25 million people. Even Niamey where support for the coup is intense will never fully be controlled by any invading force. The American military, the most powerful armed force in the world never fully controlled the Iraqi capital Baghdad throughout its 12 year occupation of Iraq.
Even in Liberia and Sierra Leone where they faced poorly trained drugged up thugs with virtually no public support, the Nigerian led Ecomog forces never really controlled anything beyond the capitals Monrovia and Freetown and a few other big towns. Virtually the whole of the countryside was dominated by the rebels. In Niger where the coupists enjoy mass support what hope have they of pacifying even a fraction of the country.

How many combat troops has the Nigerian army? Possibly about 130,000. To successfully occupy a country the size of Niger, a much bigger nation than Liberia or Sierra Leone, you would need a force at least treble that with more in reserve to replace casualties and rotate troops. In Liberia and Sierra Leone the Nigerian army lost thousands of troops to the insurgency it faced there. Facing a popular insurgency in a much bigger country they will be slaughtered en masse.

Our army has no major air lift capability to transport troops around the battle space Our logistics has always been the weakest aspect of force deployment. How do we transport troops around a country that vast with our ramshackle military supply system? Why are we so blind? And make no mistake the insurgents will find a lot of external support. Forget Mali and Burkina Fasso, the real power to be feared in the region is Algeria. They have one of the most powerful militaries not just in Africa but in the global south. They have always been anti French having fought a bloody war of independence against the French in the 50's at the cost of a million lives and they won’t take kindly to a French proxy war on their doorstep. They will be even more furious at a black African regional power playing policeman in their historic sphere of influence. They will never accept a West African dictated settlement in what they regard as part of historic Arabia and will do everything in their power to undermine it.

They share a 600 mile border with Niger and a tsunami of weapons including Algerian special forces, amongst the most lethal in the 3rd world will flood across it.

The Nigerian army will stand no chance of a successful outcome in such a hostile terrain and what of the army's cohesion. Let’s face it Nigeria is a hotch potch of nations. A significant portion of our army has traditionally come from the far north. The kith and kin of the country we want to invade and whose people we are going to kill. Niger was part of the old Sokoto caliphate and was only cut off from it by the colonial division of the territory between France and Britain. They share deep cultural, linguistic and religious links transcending these colonial borders. How long before Hausa Fulani soldiers in the Nigerian army get tired of seeing their kinsman killed by their own guns. How long before they start thinking that it is only happening because they are being ordered to do so by a Yoruba president. How long before northern soldiers in the Nigerian army start accusing their Yoruba and Ibo colleagues of using excessive force against their blood relatives.

We have not thought this through. The Nigerian army has a snowballs chance in hell of successfully invading and occupying Niger. It is a fool’s errand against what is a popular anti colonial movement in the country. An invasion will spark a conflagration of violence against an invading the force the likes of which we have not seen in our life time. The Nigerian army is not equipped, trained or set up to win such a war. They will be entering a bitterly hostile terrain unlike in Liberia and Sierra Leone were large sections of the populations welcomed them. They will be killed in their thousands. It is a proxy war for the benefit of western powers who don’t want to pay the blood price. We have no skin in this fight.

If we do end up going in the outcome cannot be in any doubt. We will face a crushing military defeat and the very likelihood that what we went in to Niger to defeat will end up returning to Nigeria, a bloody military coup back home by those we have sent to fight and die in a country that has done us no harm.


Some of you lack comprehension... Nigeria is not planning to invade Niger... ECOWAS is the one trying to restore democratic order in Niger. So stop shouting Nigeria Army like one suffering from epilepsy. I believe you are part of the indomie generation hence you won't know about ECOMOG...this won't be the first time ECOWAS will embark on such operation...

In as much as I want Niger to be left alone, I have question for those who feel an attack on BOKO haram is an attack on the north, for those who also feel an attack on Niger coup plotters is an attack on the north...

Can you just let ECOWAS be ? Did anyone force Niger to join ECOWAS ? Can Niger survive without Nigeria ? ...

1 Like

Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Goodman2023: 9:45am On Aug 12, 2023
orisa37:
THE EMIR OF DAURA EMIRATE WANTS THE 4/5 OF HIS EMIRATE THAT IS IN DAURA INCORPORATED BACK INTO NIGERIA.
ALSO KANO RANO AND SOKOTO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

Northern Nigeria should continue to see themselves as southern Niger...but do you guys plan to finance your rubbish creation of Emirates with our oil money ?
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by Dafresh: 10:26am On Aug 12, 2023
beelon1020:
OP! You be olodo jorr... this is not war but a military exercise, its 12 countries against one, nigeria is just one of the 12 countries... besides civilians are not suppose to get involved in any way, the military exercise is target only at the capital and the presidential villa that the president and his officials are been held hostage...
Is not about Tinubu but is about ECOWAS...
The military exercise is between military personnel only...
civilians will be allowed free passage at a point...
It's not Tinubu but ECOWAS but Nigeria embassy have been burnt, if it's not Nigeria why are Nigeriens burning down Nigeria embassy
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by beelon1020(m): 11:03am On Aug 12, 2023
Dafresh:

It's not Tinubu but ECOWAS but Nigeria embassy have been burnt, if it's not Nigeria why are Nigeriens burning down Nigeria embassy
That’s obvious negative reaction from the citizens...
No matter you bad or good reach, you will have some sympathizers... that’s just human nature...
Try grow up small...
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by beelon1020(m): 11:12am On Aug 12, 2023
[quote author=delpee post=125054634]

Really? Are you aware of what happened in the days of ECOMOG? [/quote yes, , in fact I have a friend that went for the peace keeping mission,
That was a civil war...
That was a peace keeping mission...
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by jerk: 11:20am On Aug 12, 2023
I pity Nigerians officers from other ethnic region not Hausa.
The hausas in the Nigerian side will turn against them for killing their brothers in the other side and this can lead to civil war in Nigeria.
Re: If the Nigerian Army invades Niger, It will be cut to pieces there by beelon1020(m): 11:37am On Aug 12, 2023
Kayser1:


You think war is an olympic sport with set rules. If you take Niamey what about the rest of the country. You repeat the absured argument that this is not about Tinubu but is Ecowas. Is there any country called Ecowas. Does any soldier come from Ecowas. Has ecowas got any tax powers. It is a sign of Tinubu's weakness that he cant come out openly and confidently say he is going into Niger but instead is hiding behind Ecowas. When the dead bodies of soldiers start coming home is there a country called Ecowas where they will be buried. Let him send them and see what will happen. When Nigerian soldeirs decide to storm aso rock I am assuming he will redirect them to Ecowas hq. Yo are delusional
The only person that is delusional here is YOU! We’re did you schooled? I’m guessing is Imukoro grammar school,..
Anyways, make I give you this for free, so that next time you won’t be blowing nonsense grammar with confidence...
ECOWAS is made of west Africa countries, which Nigeria is one of it, and the Nigeria president happens to be the chairman of ECOWAS, unfortunately Tinubu is doubling this position but peeps like you thinks is Nigeria, but no, is ECOWAS..
All trash you wrote up there, nothing but trash indeed...
One more lesson for you.. if ECOWAS want to war within her region, it has to be a collective decision among the countries, and each are to voluntarily give out some military forces to join forces for the mission...
Hopefully I’m able to open your mind on this.. [i][/i

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