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Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution - Politics - Nairaland

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Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by Beaf1: 1:40pm On Nov 23, 2011
Example:

If a northerner/Hausa/Muslim takes to street and say "This Government Must Go, Enough of the Oppression" etc,

A southerner/Ijaw (to be specific)/Christian would say "No he is from the south, a christian so he must stay and finish his tenure", bla bla,

And vice versa.

We will never speak with one voice in Nigeria, NEVER! We are too diverse, we have been forced to unite but it's not working.

Solution is to go separate ways.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by danjohn: 1:48pm On Nov 23, 2011
Fake Beaf, your logic is not complete.  What about if the revolution starts from the South?  If Southerners rise up against an incompetent President from the South, Northerners will gladly join the revolution.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by Beaf1: 2:25pm On Nov 23, 2011
^^^
I deliberately did not mention that because it will never happened. Not now that luck have smiled on the south and they feel it is their turn to mess with the socalled Nigeria. Look at what we have today as president grin

BTW who is fake?
Read my signature  cheesy
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by Afam4eva(m): 2:26pm On Nov 23, 2011
I thnk beaf has a poi‎​nt. Imagine if after Nigeria gets an igbo president and Ngerans decides to revolt at that time. What do you expect the ordnary igbo person to think.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by PointB: 2:44pm On Nov 23, 2011
@Topic,
Spot on. I rather a split than some fake revolution.

@DanJohn,
Which south are you talking about? A revolution against GEJ led by SW will be seen in the same way as that from the North. Such treachery will certainly be one to many.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by danjohn: 2:58pm On Nov 23, 2011
Beaf!:

^^^
I deliberately did not mention that because it will never happened. Not now that luck have smiled on the south and they feel it is their turn to mess with the socalled Nigeria. Look at what we have today as president  grin

BTW who is fake?
Read my signature  cheesy

Hahahahahaha I did not see your signature.  My bad.  I think that Nigeria needs 16 - 24 years of competent leadership from the top.  We need to build our infrastructure, we need to improve healthcare and education, and we need the regulatory framework in place that can make Nigeria a conducive place to do business.  If we can do those four things our standard of living will rise quickly.

I personally think that a civil war can be avoided.  The only thing keeping Nigeria together is oil money from the Niger Delta.  When Niger Delta oil dries up, everyone will answer their father's name and Nigeria will disintegrate.  However, if the Niger Delta agrees to continue giving oil money to the break away Nigerian states for a limited period after Nigeria disintegrates (15 - 20 years), Nigeria will break up peacefully.

Northerners did not fight Biafra because they loved Igbos and wanted to be in the same country with Igbos.  They fought Biafra because of oil.  If Ojukwu sat down with Gowon and conceded some of the Non-Igbo Niger Delta portions of the then eastern region, a civil war could have been avoided.

I do not think we need to think about the worst case scenario yet.  We need to work on bringing credible governance to our country. We need to work on making Nigeria have a credible and formidable opposition party.  If the ruling party in any state and on the federal level know that they can be defeated in an election, they will perform better.  Right now we have a situation where only 1 party has the resources and the spread to win a national election.  Some states are for all intents and purposes, 1 party states.  That needs to change.  In addition we need internal party democracy where voters transparently choose their party nominees.  In America when you register to vote you state the name of the party that you would like to be affiliated with.  Affiliating yourself with a political party allows you to vote in that party's primaries.  Obama won the Democratic Party's Presidential nomination with over 17 million votes (as opposed to Goodluck's 3,000 or so delegates).  But here in Nigeria all you have to do is bribe delegates that nobody has ever heard of in their lives. 

My brother, it is well.  E go better.  I just had to say those two because I need some false hope to remain positive on Nigeria.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by danjohn: 3:05pm On Nov 23, 2011
PointB:

@Topic,
Spot on. I rather a split than some fake revolution.

@DanJohn,
Which south are you talking about? A revolution against GEJ led by SW will be seen in the same way as that from the North. Such treachery will certainly be one to many.


PointB, I meant a hypothetical situation where a President's kinsmen lead a revolution because the President is grossly incompetent.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by PointB: 3:23pm On Nov 23, 2011
I get you now. But even at that the president kinsmen are more or less in the minority. It would be beyond them to single handedly cause the president to be removed. There are other large and small groups who voted the president for tactical and strategic reason. They will need to be on board for anything of such to happen.

In other words a nation wide revolution against the president is far-fetched. GEJ will complete his tenure.
Re: Only a Civil War Can Take Place In Nigeria Not a Revolution by danjohn: 3:55pm On Nov 23, 2011
PointB, the point I was making is that the poster's point is faulty on 2 fronts.  He did not acknowledge the hypothetical scenario that I highlighted and he assumes that Nigeria will disintegrate via a civil war.

PointB, remember that when Abacha died people were rejoicing in his home state and nobody demanded an autopsy.  I agree with you that GEJ's administration has not yet reached the point where Nigerians share a unified hatred of him.  However, we are discussing hypotheticals here and the poster did not state a scenario that I think has merit.  Presidents all over the world like Abacha have become so unpopular that their entire country (including their kinsmen) shared a unified hatred for a common enemy.  The point I am trying to make is that for any revolution to be successful in Nigeria, the kinsmen of the President must hate the President just as much as the rest of the country hates the President.  If the rest of the country needs to use propaganda to make that happen, they must do that.  That is all I am saying.

Secondly, I addressed the reasons why I think a civil war can be avoided in my prior post:

danjohn:

I personally think that a civil war can be avoided.  The only thing keeping Nigeria together is oil money from the Niger Delta.  When Niger Delta oil dries up, everyone will answer their father's name and Nigeria will disintegrate.  However, if the Niger Delta agrees to continue giving oil money to the break away Nigerian states for a limited period after Nigeria disintegrates (15 - 20 years), Nigeria will break up peacefully.

Northerners did not fight Biafra because they loved Igbos and wanted to be in the same country with Igbos.  They fought Biafra because of oil.  If Ojukwu sat down with Gowon and conceded some of the Non-Igbo Niger Delta portions of the then eastern region, a civil war could have been avoided.

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