The stage is set and for all strategists within the political circle, the battle has started of what will be the most interesting election in 2027.
The drama playing out in some of the states is not causal fight but well timed to gain advantage.

Yes Tinubu presidential belt is on the line and worst Nightmare of any president is to taste that first term and lose re-election bid. Sometimes it's better not to win at all than lose re-election..

Has he done well? To be fair, using just one year to judge a president is harsh but this year is certainly a window into the rest of his term. He has made a good push with some policies but also retains the horrible reality of insensitivity among elite politicians in Nigeria.

OK, let's talk politics..

Sensing the plot in the Northern corridor, Tinubu and his boys pushed forward to fight, Kwankwanso and El rufai have substantial stake in Northern politics and words on the street is that they will align with opposition against APC except a clear agreement is offered for one of them to take over from Tinubu in 2031.

Unfortunately, majority of APC strong men does not have plans to bring both men to the table. Therefore, they initiated fight from within to gain advantage. Yes, Gov Sani of Kaduna and Bayero (Federal Emir) gives APC a little hope of votes from the 2 most important Northern states..

Down in Rivers State, Wike remains the Key for APC and Federal government will never back down, we might possibly see LG chairmen backed by FG and chairmen backed by state. Also the crisis in the house of assembly will continue till 2027.

APC led Tinubu will need either a miracle or serious covert operation to win 2027 and not because he will be the worst president or have messed up badly but simply cause of PERCEPTION.

APC will need more backing from SS, NC and try to lure people from the SE then hope not to be betrayed by Northern allies..

Infact Tinubu need strong southern outing, at least - 80 percent of SW, 70 percent of SS, 30-40 percent of SE to have a chance of winning 2027 and if he can get 60 - 70 percent from NC then it's all well. But looks like almost impossible task.

With the proposed alliance next year in the final stage, APC will unfortunately be defeated whether the election is free or not as even dark arts will not stop the force..

Tinubu APC must do everything to avoid an alliance between Kwankwanso, El rufai, Atiku and Peter Obi as it's likely a Northerner - Atiku will emerge as the flag bearer with Obi as Vice and agreement to handover to Obi afterwards. Election against such alliance is a walkover for the opposition.

My advice is for Tinubu to lure Kwankwanso with presidency and bring back El rufai unfortunately both NE and NW politicians will not have it. VP shettima from Northeast is already preparing for the seat leaving Kwankwanso and El rufai with no choice..

APC should simply focus on covert means once the touted alliance is confirmed.

I always laugh whenever I see comments like this from people who really don't understand Rivers state.

See eh, politics in Rivers is not what you can predict ab initio. It doesn't have any template.

In Rivers, the power belongs to the people, and the people always follow whoever that is in control of the money, in this case, Simi Fubara.

Realignment or not, Rivers can never be an APC state, and Wike understands this. It can't work.

Wike lost the fight even before it started. You need to understand the dynamics of Rivers politics.

affliction shall not come the second time

politics is not that simple
Realistically Elrufai and Kwankwaso have already spent their political significance. if today election is to take place in Kaduna El rufai will not have any impact on the outcome. as for Kano if today election is to be conducted i can assure you Abba will loose the election why? simple reason of politically miscalculation from both of them. Hundreds of Thousands who voted Abba (NNPP) regret their actions within the first year in office because he destroyed so much that it is impoosible to recoup in the next 4 years even from his Hardline Supporters not to talk of the opposition and remember the margin of the last election with all the bogus ballot added to the boxes and exposed by the same people who did the dirty work for him.
As for merger between Atiku, Kwankwaso, El rufai and Obi it is a non starter, why? El rufai is not an actual politician but rather an administrator so he is out of equation, Kwankwaso can not go beyond parts of Kano (not all), Kano is just one state out of 19. Atiku may have a slight chance with a very slim lead (hypothetical atleast because i believe he cant get the north to rally behind him due to his precedence) BUT HE WILL NEVER WIN IN THE SOUTH. So any merger with atiku is a failure as far as south is concerned. As for OBI thats the funniest part first he has already spent his political relevancy. and 100% he can NEVER WIN AN ELECTION in the north either as a candidate or vice.
So if you look a the Atiku/Obi dilenma they will became each others Archilles heel, they have two incompatible support bases. by joining together they will not have an advantage rather they will all loose their support base. and who will gain?
Tinubu have started on a very wrong footing and i dont think he can recover successfully before the 2027 election but he will definitely win the election in 2027 not because he have the support but rather because he doesnt have viable opposition. and to top it he have a very strong political party strategist handing his party for him.
If opposition want to win election in 2027 they have a lot of work to do, but some are:
1. A very good upright candidate (which all the opposition parties lack at the moment)
2. Make sure Ganduje is removed from the head of APC. ( the man is very cunning he dont care about abuses or supposed failures he always strategise and win the war. (PDP has never recovered since they boot out the strategist Makarfi from the party since that time they loose control of the party).
3. Have a very good and strong party discipline.
4. Make sure they work from the grassroots upward not the normal top-down strategy, as rigging election is getting more and more difficult by each election.
5. Concentrate on Villagers, Hawkers, Farmers, and other petty traders for campaign not the so called graduates. the graduates are just liability and on election day have virtually zero influence as they will not even cast their individual votes rather they will fill the online ballot with super stories of winning the election from their bed.

Ngasky:
politics is not that simple
Realistically Elrufai and Kwankwaso have already spent their political significance. if today election is to take place in Kaduna El rufai will not have any impact on the outcome. as for Kano if today election is to be conducted i can assure you Abba will loose the election why? simple reason of politically miscalculation from both of them. Hundreds of Thousands who voted Abba (NNPP) regret their actions within the first year in office because he destroyed so much that it is impoosible to recoup in the next 4 years even from his Hardline Supporters not to talk of the opposition and remember the margin of the last election with all the bogus ballot added to the boxes and exposed by the same people who did the dirty work for him.
As for merger between Atiku, Kwankwaso, El rufai and Obi it is a non starter, why? El rufai is not an actual politician but rather an administrator so he is out of equation, Kwankwaso can not go beyond parts of Kano (not all), Kano is just one state out of 19. Atiku may have a slight chance with a very slim lead (hypothetical atleast because i believe he cant get the north to rally behind him due to his precedence) BUT HE WILL NEVER WIN IN THE SOUTH. So any merger with atiku is a failure as far as south is concerned. As for OBI thats the funniest part first he has already spent his political relevancy. and 100% he can NEVER WIN AN ELECTION in the north either as a candidate or vice.
So if you look a the Atiku/Obi dilenma they will became each others Archilles heel, they have two incompatible support bases. by joining together they will not have an advantage rather they will all loose their support base. and who will gain?
Tinubu have started on a very wrong footing and i dont think he can recover successfully before the 2027 election but he will definitely win the election in 2027 not because he have the support but rather because he doesnt have viable opposition. and to top it he have a very strong political party strategist handing his party for him.
If opposition want to win election in 2027 they have a lot of work to do, but some are:
1. A very good upright candidate (which all the opposition parties lack at the moment)
2. Make sure Ganduje is removed from the head of APC. ( the man is very cunning he dont care about abuses or supposed failures he always strategise and win the war. (PDP has never recovered since they boot out the strategist Makarfi from the party since that time they loose control of the party).
3. Have a very good and strong party discipline.
4. Make sure they work from the grassroots upward not the normal top-down strategy, as rigging election is getting more and more difficult by each election.
5. Concentrate on Villagers, Hawkers, Farmers, and other petty traders for campaign not the so called graduates. the graduates are just liability and on election day have virtually zero influence as they will not even cast their individual votes rather they will fill the online ballot with super stories of winning the election from their bed.

Amateurs....

lonelydora:
I always laugh whenever I see comments like this from people who really don't understand Rivers state.

See eh, politics in Rivers is not what you can predict ab initio. It doesn't have any template.

In Rivers, the power belongs to the people, and the people always follow whoever that is in control of the money, in this case, Simi Fubara.

Realignment or not, Rivers can never be an APC state, and Wike understands this. It can't work.

Wike lost the fight even before it started. You need to understand the dynamics of Rivers politics.

Wike rubbished all these last year

He singlehandedly decided the result of the election in 2023 and it went the way he wanted