1. Trump’s Tariff Announcement

Tariff Details: Trump announced a total 145% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering a significant trade war escalation.

Global Tariffs: A lists of proposed "reciprocal tariffs" on various countries:

China: 145% (U.S.), 84% (China)

Explanation:

145% (U.S.): This reflects the total U.S. tariff on Chinese goods, combining a 20% fentanyl-related tariff and a 125% reciprocal tariff, effective April 9, 2025.
The current U.S. rate is confirmed at 145%.

84% (China): China’s retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, raised from 34% to 84% starting April 10, 2025.

European Union: 90%, 90%

Vietnam: 90%, 90%

Japan: 50%, 25%

South Korea: 50%, 25%

Thailand: 72%, 36%

Malaysia: 61%, 31%

Cambodia: 97%, 19%

Indonesia: 60%, 30%

Philippines: 10%, 17%

Taiwan: 34%, 17%

India: 58%, 29%

Suspension Clause: Tariffs on most countries (except China) are suspended for 90 days, capped at 10%, to allow for negotiations.

2. Global Trade Dynamics (U.S. vs. China)

A shift in global trade dominance from 2000 to 2024:
In 2000, U.S. trade totaled $2 trillion (4x China’s $474 billion); by 2024, U.S. trade reached $5.3 trillion, while China’s surged to $6.2 trillion.

China overtook the U.S. as the dominant trade partner for most of Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, South America, and Africa by 2024.

U.S. share of Chinese exports dropped from 21% in 2000 to 14.8% in 2023 (China’s global exports: $3.4 trillion, U.S. imports: $502 billion).

China’s Trade Growth: China’s trade grew by 1,200% from 2000 to 2024 (11.3% CAGR), compared to the U.S.’s 167% growth (4.2% CAGR).

3. Economic and Market Reactions

Chinese Yuan: The yuan fell to its lowest level in 18 years (7.3498 per dollar onshore, 7.4288 offshore), reflecting market fears over the trade war.

China’s Retaliation: China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. imports, effective April 10, 2025, and expressed willingness to negotiate but vowed to "fight to the end" if the U.S. doesn’t compromise.

Market Impact:

Chinese sellers on Amazon are raising prices or exiting the U.S. market due to tariff pressures.

The CSI 300 index in China hit its lowest since September 2023, dropping 0.9% before closing down 0.2%.

U.S. markets are on edge, with uncertainty reflected in the VIX index (as shown in a chart comparing economic policy uncertainty and market volatility).

Global Concerns: The World Trade Organization warned that the U.S.-China tariff war could cut their bilateral trade by 80%, potentially reducing global trade by 3% and severely impacting the global economy.

4. Trump’s Strategy Framed Through "The Art of the Deal"

Trump’s tariff strategy from his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, co-authored with Tony Schwartz.

Eight Rules from the Playbook:

Think Big: Trump’s bold 125% tariff on China and tariffs on multiple countries reflect his preference for large-scale actions.

Protect the Downside: The 90-day tariff suspension (except for China) acts as an insurance policy to mitigate immediate economic fallout.

Maximize Your Options: Trump’s unpredictability (e.g., will tariffs stay, rise, or be negotiated?) creates leverage through uncertainty.

Use Your Leverage: The U.S.’s position as the world’s largest consumer market is leveraged to pressure China and others.

Deliver the Goods: Tariffs are framed as a win for American workers, factories, and farmers, aligning with Trump’s "America First" narrative.

Enhance Your Location: Trump positions the U.S. as a fair but firm negotiator globally with the message, “Play fair, or pay up.”

Get the Word Out: Trump uses media to amplify his tariff announcements, turning them into headline-grabbing events and campaign fuel.

Fight Back: Facing criticism of recklessness, Trump doubles down, framing retaliation as strength, consistent with his book’s advice to “screw back in spades” when challenged.

5. Context from "The Art of the Deal"

Book Background: Published in 1987, The Art of the Deal is part memoir, part business advice, and became a #1 bestseller, selling over 1.1 million hardcover copies.

Trump’s Pride: Trump has cited the book as one of his proudest accomplishments, second only to the Bible, and often references its principles in his political and business strategies.

6. China’s Response and Broader Implications

China’s Stance: China’s foreign ministry stated the U.S. trade war “will end in failure,” with spokesperson Lin Jian emphasizing Beijing’s readiness to resist tariff threats.

Economic Measures: Chinese state banks sold dollars to slow the yuan’s decline, and leaders planned to meet to discuss economic stabilization measures.

Global Reactions:

The EU paused its new tariffs on the U.S. for 90 days to allow negotiations.

Analysts (e.g., Capital Economics) predict China’s GDP could drop by 1.0-1.5% due to reduced U.S. exports, even with potential trade rerouting.

7. Public and Media Sentiment

Reflect a mix of alarm and support:

Criticism vs. Support: Critics call Trump’s tariffs reckless, while supporters see them as a strong stance against China, aligning with his Art of the Deal tactics.

8. Closing Question

What do you think about the tariffs? Will Trump’s strategy succeed or fail?

9. Supporting Web Context

China’s Economic Struggles: The yuan’s decline began earlier, hitting a 16-month low in January 2025 (7.3301 per dollar), driven by fears of Trump’s tariffs and China’s economic troubles (e.g., capital outflows, weak stock market).

Global Trade Shifts: China’s Belt and Road Initiative has expanded its trade influence in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, reducing reliance on the U.S. market.

WTO Warning: The escalating tariff war could “severely damage the global economic outlook,” per WTO head Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

This captures the multifaceted nature of Trump’s tariff strategy, its economic implications, and how it ties into his historical business philosophy as articulated in The Art of the Deal.

DR MELCHISEDEC BANKOLE