Nigeria to become 30th largest economy by 2014
Monday, 09 April 2012 00:00 Patrick Atuanya & Afego Pyemo
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[Samir Gadio]

Samir Gadio

Nigeria’s expected rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, to better reflect the structure of the economy, may catapult it to the 30th largest economy in the world, from its current 40th position, according to BusinessDay findings. This will increasingly make Nigeria an investment destination and boost consumer stocks with the potential increase in GDP per capita.

Most governments overhaul GDP calculations every few years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as mobile phones and internet usage, but Nigeria has not done so since 1990, suggesting that the previous GDP framework underestimated economic activities.

When Ghana’s GDP was rebased in 2010, the size of its economy was found to be 60 percent bigger than previously recorded, $31 billion, compared to $18 billion. Nigeria ’s current nominal GDP for 2011 is $247 billion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and a similar 60 percent rise would bring it to $395.2 billion, making it the 30th largest economy in the world, as at the end of 2011, just behind South Africa ($422 billion), Austria ($425 billion) and Argentina ($435 billion).

The rebasing would also entrench Nigeria’s position as the second largest economy in Africa, making it likely to surpass South Africa as early as 2014.

Yvonne Mhango, analyst at Renaissance Capital (Rencap), said: “If Nigeria ’s GDP is upwardly revised by the same magnitude as Ghana ’s was in 2010, 60 percent, then we can expect Nigeria ’s economy to surpass the size of the sedately growing South African economy, as soon as 2014.”

Yvonne Mhango also notes in her research release that a bigger GDP would take Nigeria ’s consolidated tax revenues as a percentage of GDP down to 17 – 22 percent from its current level of 25 percent and lower than the average for sub-Sahara Africa , implying room for improvement.

Other macro-economic ratios will be affected too. On the positive side, Mhango predicts that Nigeria ’s public debt to GDP ratio – already lower than most countries in sub-Sahara Africa – will fall to 10.5-14.5 percent, from 17.3 percent at the end of 2011.

Samir Gadio, emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank, London, also informs in a note to BusinessDay, “Obviously, we can only speculate at this stage on the magnitude of the upward revision in Nigeria’s output and whether the other shortcomings in the existing GDP estimates will be addressed, the implication of the rebasing is that GDP per capita will subsequently increase, making Nigeria a more attractive investment case and potentially boosting consumer stocks.”

That said, Nigeria’s GDP per capita currently at $1,615 still trails those of many other economies on the African continent and while the rebasing would be an overall positive, it could also lead to lower economic ratios.

Samir Gadio explains further, that on the fiscal side, the revenue-to-GDP ratio will decline, but so will the overall fiscal position of the government.

Continuing, he said, the current account surplus will also decrease, which may not be positively perceived by offshore accounts looking at the country’s external dynamics, especially as the current account balance has already been substantially downsized in recent years in the official data, due to an unexplained increase in imports.

The new GDP figure is expected any moment from now. Yemi Kale, Statistician- General, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said in an interview in January, “We are still working on it. Unfortunately there was a lot of work that should have been done during the period of the fuel subsidy strike, so we have been set back by a couple of weeks. We are still hoping that we might be able to complete this before the end of the quarter, I was hoping to release this number by the last week in January”.

http://businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/76-hot-topic/35666-gdp-rebasing-to-make-nigeria-30th-largest-economy-investment-destination

Does this mean that Vision 20 2020 is possible afterall?

I hope they are not trying to manipulate the system?

I see nothing wrong with rebasing especially if it's a global best practice.

Which economy, eh? I don't think it is Nigeria's economy. How can our economy grow when our political leaders are the richest in the world?

Namibia has started rigging its OIL. Namibia has 16 BILLION BARRELS of oil recently the researchers have found out that have 50 billion barrels of oil their rocks formations are similar to Brazil. While Falkland Islands near Argentina have discovered 60 billion barrels of oil their rock formations are similar to West Coast of South Africa. Here the link to SA known oil.

http://www.energy.gov.za/files/IEP/presentations/OilandGasReservesInSA_30March2012.pdf

Rebasing will by 40% will still keep Nigeria behind SA. You guys have over 120million POOR people who still have no access to clean water, electricity etc..

Theres nothing to celebrate on this REBASING STORY. Other than its just crooked politicians who are just trying to u happy by this nonsense. This still doesnt benefit ORDINARY NIGERIANS. Number one spot with million of people living in poverty, poor roads,poor electricity supply etc..

This is a list of countries by electricity production per year based on multiple sources.
Rank Country/Region Electricity
production
(GWh)[1] Date of
information
N/A World Total 21,325,115 2010[2]
1 United States 4,325,900 2010[2]
2 China 4,206,500 2010[2]
N/A European Union 3,332,111 2010[2]
3 Japan 1,145,300 2010[2]
4 Russia 1,036,800 2010[2]
5 India 922,200 2010[2]
6 Canada 629,900 2010[2]
7 Germany 621,000 2010[2]
8 France 573,200 2010[2]
9 Korea, South 497,200 2010[2]
10 Brazil 484,800 2010[2]
11 United Kingdom 381,200 2010[2]
12 Spain 300,400 2010[2]
13 Italy 298,200 2010[2]
14 Mexico 270,000 2010[2]
15 South Africa 268,100 2010[2](Note SA after Medupi powerstation in 2014 will be in the top 5 in the world)
16 Taiwan 247,000 2010[2]
17 Australia 245,300 2010[2]
18 Turkey 239,100 2012
19 Iran 226,100 2010[2]
20 Saudi Arabia 214,000 2010[2]
21 Ukraine 187,900 2010[2]
22 Indonesia 166,400 2010[2]
23 Poland 157,400 2010[2]
24 Thailand 156,400 2010[2]
25 Sweden 155,400 2010[2]
26 Egypt 143,500 2010[2]
27 Argentina 128,500 2010[2]
28 Norway 124,500 2010[2]
29 Venezuela 116,700 2010[2]
30 Malaysia 116,200 2010[2]
31 Netherlands 114,800 2010[2]
32 Vietnam 100,170 2010[2]
33 Pakistan 93,350 2012[2]
34 United Arab Emirates 88,600 2010[2]
35 Czech Republic 85,900 2010[2]
36 Belgium 84,197 2009[3]
37 Kazakhstan 82,700 2010[2]
38 Finland 80,400 2010[2]
39 Switzerland 71,200 2010[2]
40 Austria 70,800 2010[2]
41 Philippines 67,700 2010[2]
42 Chile 60,200 2010[2]
43 Romania 59,800 2010[2]
44 Israel 58,300 2010[2]
45 Colombia 56,900 2010[2]
46 Portugal 55,800 2010[2]
47 Paraguay 54,912 2008[3]
48 Kuwait 54,600 2010[2]
49 Greece 53,200 2010[2]
50 Uzbekistan 52,300 2010[2]
51 Bulgaria 46,000 2010[2]
52 Singapore 45,400 2010[2]
53 Algeria 45,200 2010[2]
54 New Zealand 43,400 2010[2]
55 Bangladesh 39,100 2010[2]
56 Denmark 38,600 2010[2]
57 Hong Kong 38,300 2010[2]
58 Syria 38,705 2008[3]
59 Hungary 37,400 2010[2]
60 Peru 34,800 2010[2]
61 Serbia 34,711 2008[3]
62 Iraq 34,600 2008[3]
63 Belarus 34,500 2010[2]
64 Ireland 28,300 2010[2]
65 Slovakia 27,400 2010[2]
66 Libya 26,947 2008[3]
67 Qatar 23,700 2010[2]
68 Korea, North 22,517 2008[3]
69 Puerto Rico 20,921 2008[3]
70 Nigeria 20,130 2008[3]
71 Ecuador 19,500 2010[2]
72 Morocco 19,493 2008[3]
73 Azerbaijan 18,700 2010[2]
74 Turkmenistan 17,400 2010[2]
75 Cuba 16,990 2008[3]
76 Iceland 16,484 2009[3]
77 Tajikistan 15,971 2008[3]
78 Slovenia 15,634 2009[3]
79 Oman 15,085 2009[4]
80 Mozambique 14,975 2008[3]
81 Dominican Republic 14,577 2008[3]
82 Tunisia 14,395 2008[3]
83 Jordan 13,010 2008[3]
84 Bosnia and Herzegovina 12,692 2008[3]
85 Kyrgyzstan 11,702 2008[3]
86 Croatia 11,658 2008[3]
87 Bahrain 11,217 2008[3]
88 Estonia 9,984 2008[3]
89 Zambia 9,752 2007[3]
90 Sri Lanka 9,507 2007[3]
91 Uruguay 9,265 2007[3]
92 Trinidad and Tobago 9,100 2010[2]
93 Lebanon 9,030 2007[3]
94 Zimbabwe 8,890 2007[3]
95 Costa Rica 8,808 2007[3]
96 Guatemala 8,425 2007[3]
97 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 8,220 2007[3]
98 Georgia 7,970 2008[4]
99 Jamaica 7,324 2007[3]
100 Ghana 6,746 2007[3]
101 Sudan 6,509[3] 2009
102 Burma 6,286 2007[3]
103 Macedonia 6,051 2007
104 Armenia 5,941 2006
105 Lithuania 5,700 2010[2]
106 Panama 5,661 2005
107 Kenya 5,502 2005
108 Albania 5,385 2005
109 Honduras 5,339 2005
110 El Salvador 5,316 2006
111 Côte d'Ivoire 5,305 2005
112 Bolivia 5,293 2006
113 Latvia 4,778 2005
114 Cyprus 4,618 2006
115 Yemen 4,456 2005 (estimations)
116 Cameroon 4,090 2005
117 Kosovo 3,996 2006
118 Moldova 3,881 2005
119 Papua New Guinea 3,698 2005
120 Mongolia 3,430 2006
121 Luxembourg 3,156 2005 (estimations)
122 Ethiopia 2,864 2005
123 Montenegro 2,864 2005 (estimations)
124 Nicaragua 2,778 2006
125 Brunei 2,735 2005
126 Angola 2,585 2005
127 Nepal 2,511 2006
128 Mauritius 2,350 2006
129 Senegal 2,159 2006
130 Malta 2,106 2005
131 Bhutan 2,000 2005
132 Uganda 1,983 2005
133 Bahamas 1,894 2005
134 Tanzania 1,880 2005
135 Guam 1,793 2005
136 Laos 1,715 2005
137 Namibia 1,688 2005
138 Macau 1,670 2006
139 Suriname 1,530 2005
140 Gabon 1,520 2005
141 New Caledonia 1,508 2005
142 Malawi 1,397 2005
143 Netherlands Antilles 1,175 2005
144 Fiji 1,046 2005
145 Madagascar 1,046 2005
146 U.S. Virgin Islands 996 2005
147 Barbados 953 2005
148 Botswana 912 2005
149 Guinea 840 2006
150 Guyana 807 2005
151 Mali 804 2006
152 Aruba 770 2005
153 Afghanistan 754 2005
154 Bermuda 618 2005
155 Haiti 535 2005
156 Burkina Faso 516 2005
157 French Polynesia 462 2005
158 Swaziland 460 2007
159 Cayman Islands 400 2005
160 Congo, Republic of the 400 2007[3]
161 Lesotho 350 2005
162 Liberia 319 2005
163 Djibouti 306 2006
164 Saint Lucia 304 2005
165 Greenland 300 2005
166 Faroe Islands 290 2005
167 Somalia 270 2005
168 Eritrea 252 2006
169 Mauritania 248 2005
170 Sierra Leone 245 2005
171 Niger 234 2005
172 Belize 200 2007 (estimations)
173 Micronesia, Federated States of 192 2002
174 American Samoa 180 2005
175 Togo 176 2005
176 Maldives 169 2005
177 Grenada 150 2005
178 Gambia, The 145 2005
179 Gibraltar 141 2005
180 Burundi 137 2005
181 Cambodia 134 2005
182 Saint Kitts and Nevis 125 2005
183 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 115 2005
184 Samoa 111 2009[5]
185 Central African Republic 109 2005
186 Antigua and Barbuda 105 2005
187 Benin 105 2005
188 Chad 95 2005
189 Rwanda 95 2005
190 Western Sahara 85 2005
191 Dominica 80 2005
192 Solomon Islands 60 2005
193 Guinea-Bissau 60 2005
194 Tonga 54 2006
195 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 50 2005
196 Cape Verde 45 2005
197 British Virgin Islands 45 2005
198 Vanuatu 41 2005
199 Cook Islands 30 2005
200 Nauru 30 2005
201 Equatorial Guinea 28 2005
202 Comoros 20 2005
203 Montserrat 20 2005
204 Sao Tome and Principe 18 2005
205 Falkland Islands 16 2005
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 12 2005
207 Kiribati 9 2005
208 Saint Helena 8 2005
209 Niue 3 2005
210 Gaza Strip 0.14 2005
References

^ CIA - The World Factbook - Rank Order - Electricity - production

To Sheyi my YORUBA friend Nigeria will still be behind to SA in many things. South Africa has the highest number of tarred roads in Africa(even low income areas are tarred with running water and electricity). While half of Nigerias population live in RURAL AREAS where water is still fetched from rivers and dams with no electricity.

WELL BEING OF ALL CITIZENS IS CELEBRATEDsmiley
Data published by the institute - an independent think-tank producing research, policy critiques and risk analysis on South Africa - shows that between 1996 and 2010:

The number of South African households living in formal houses increased from 5.8-million to 11-million or by 89.9%. Over the same period the proportion of all households living in a formal house increased from 64% to 76%.

The number of South African households with access to electricity increased from 5.2-million to 11.9-million or by 127.9%, while the proportion of all households with access to electricity increased from 58% to 83%.

The number of South African households with access to piped water increased from 7.2-million to 12.7-million or by 76.6%. The proportion with access to piped water increased from 80% to 89%.

"Increases of a similar magnitude are true for all 15 service delivery indicators tracked by the institute," Cronje said.

"These improvements are corroborated by Living Standard Measure [LSM] improvements, which show equally dramatic improvements in the number and proportion of people in higher living standard brackets.

"Together with increased access to social welfare, which now reaches over 15-million people, service delivery successes are responsible for the fact that the proportion of South Africans living on less than US$2/day has declined from 12% in 1994, and a peak of 17% in 2002, to just 5% today."

Regarding service delivery protests, Cronje said that there was "no contradiction between the successes we identify and the protests that are now commonplace around the country.

"These protests are not a function of the failure of delivery but rather of its success, in that this success has raised expectations that cannot be met because of shortcomings in the school system and the labour market."

Cronje said that while the ruling African National Congress (ANC) was not perfect, and while it could be debated whether state-led delivery was the best development model for a country to follow, "the data we have published is unambiguous that the ANC and the government it leads deserves considerably more credit for improving the living standards of poor and black South Africans than it has received."

SAinfo reporter

Read more: http://www.southafrica.info/about/social/delivery-200912.htm#.UWvV0sVcb4s#ixzz2QWhqv9xx

AwodwaGyanOniwe: Rebasing will by 40% will still keep Nigeria behind SA. You guys have over 120million POOR people who still have no access to clean water, electricity etc..

get the fvck off 120mil? You're demented... where's ur sick source?

Na the north dey set us back.

@Fake Londoner
CAPE TOWNS FUTURE DEVELOMENTS

MERGING THE CITY WITH THE PEOPLE The oil findings(Namibia and west coast of SA and other parts of our waters) will make this project easier for the state. Yes I mentioned Namibia because theyr one of our provinces/states we share alot in common language and alles. Their oil findings has led us to our findings that we had oil in the ATLANTIC OCEAN, Orange Basin and Outeniqua Basin and on the INDIAN OCEAN Mozambiques and Madagascar(21bbl of oil) findings have led us to findings in Zululand coast.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1435548

CAPE TOWNS FUTURE DEVELOMENTS

MERGING THE CITY WITH THE PEOPLE The oil findings(Namibia and west coast of SA and other parts of our waters) will make this project easier for the state. Yes I mentioned Namibia because theyr one of our provinces/states we share alot in common language and alles. Their oil findings has led us to our findings that we had oil in the ATLANTIC OCEAN, Orange Basin and Outeniqua Basin and on the INDIAN OCEAN Mozambiques and Madagascar(21bbl of oil) findings have led us to findings in Zululand coast.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1435548

@Londoner
Joystick face follow this link.

BRIDGE CITY PROJECT(Mixed housing:malls,magistrate court,hospital,schools,trade zone,parks,houses etcc) built for the masses/the poor. This project is under construction in an area that lives Indians and blacks townships we're REDIFING TOWNSHIPS changing them into suburbs and towns.

http://www.bridgecity.co.za/about-bridge-city/maps-location/

AFRICAS RECENT OIL FINDINGS might affect Nigerias oil prices(might force them to drink it)

CENTRAL AFRICA
DRC,Congo Brazzaville,Gabon,Equitorial Guinea all have oil. I wont dwell on them.

EAST AFRICA OIL
This regions population has overtaken west africa is projected to double the size of west africa in 2050.
Kenya=10 billion barrels
Ethiopia=2 billion barrels untapped
Somalia=11 billion barrels unapped(Italy is back offering em help to rebuild their country).
Tanzania=5 billion barrels

SOUTHERN AFRICA OIL
Namibia=18-166 billion of original oil(seen as next Norway)
South Africa=12-30 billion barrels untapped secret, built Mthombo and Coega for this.
Mozambique=17 billion barrels
Madagascar=21 billion barrels untapped

Videocon's Mozambique block finds 17bn barrels of oil
Markets And Macros at 14 March 2013 11:00 am
SHARE . EMAIL . PRINT . A+

Gas company Anadarko has discovered a substantial quantity of gas in two gas wells off the coast of Mozambique. India's Videocon and BPCL, both have 10% stake in those gas wells and it is being considered as one of the largest gas finds in the world.

Anadarko informed that its Atum Discovery Well encountered 92 metres gas pay. Atum and Golfinho gas wells are also believed to hold 10-30 Tcf of gas. The company further told that the offshore Area I Recoverable Resource is approaching 100 Tcf of gas.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Venugopal Dhoot, CMD, Videocon is elated with the discovery and says that it is indeed a very good news for the country . He said that the exploration could lead to the procurement of as much as 17 billion barrels of oil and India is eligible for a 20% share.

Dhoot further added that the Rovuma Area I is one of the largest ever gas finds globally. However, only two-third of Rovuma's area has been drilled and further drilling is expected in the second half of CY12. Although, the company has not fixed any timeline for oil and gas demerger, Dhoot calculates the NPV(Net Present Value) of Videocon's stake in the Mozambique block at USD 6.5 billion.

Below is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying videos.

Q: Can you tell us about the discovery off the coast of Mozambique? What is the amount that Anadarko is talking about?

A: It's a very good news for India. India will be having 20% of the gas. Anadarko said that about 60 tcf of gas has been found and it is approaching the recoverable 60 trillion and it is approaching towards 100 trillion recovered reserve. It is equal to 17 billion barrels of oil and Videocon and BPCL both have 20% share in the gas well.

It's a very big find and very big news. I should say this is one of the largest gas find in the world as on today and from the beginning Mozambique field has been very successful to Videocon and it started from 10 Tcf and now it is talking about 100 Tcf. This is enviable to any gas producer in the world.

Q: Just wanted to come down with regards to the 10% stake that Videocon holds in this oil discovery. What exactly would it value your stake at this point in time and give us a sense in terms of the modalities of the possible demerger of your oil and gas business? Where would all of this stand now?

A: That demerger will come later. I think NPV calculation at today's rate should come to around USD 6.5 billion for Videocon. It's a great news. It's a great success. That should be the value and our other partners would also benefit.

This is just the beginning. Just one-third area of Mozambique has been discovered so far. Mozambique is now approaching to be as big as Qatar and it is good news for Videocon and India.

I honestly have no idea how they define economy. Does that mean we will have the highest-paid politicians (which I am afraid we have already achieved) or we will be the country that will experience reverse development or retardation?

That Awod-Whatever guy's going to great lengths to prove the report otherwise......It seems he secretly feels threatened.

ladanski: I honestly have no idea how they define economy. Does that mean we will have the highest-paid politicians (which I am afraid we have already achieved) or we will be the country that will experience reverse development or retardation?

They always give us hope on paper. You only read about Nigeria becoming better, we'll soon be better than SA & stuff like that but you never see it in reality.
Na so so write write, talk talk.
How does this news change the fact that the same old politicians are still controlling Nigeria and they don't want to leave politics to young minds to move the country forward.

When will all these paper talk translate to reality??

Cray!

Naija and voodoo economics smdh...

30th largest economy by 2014 - and it will also be the only country in the top 50 economies with the overwhelmingly highest poverty rate...

Naija has to be the only country on this planet where increase in GDP doesn't translate to improvement in the standard-of-living of the citizens... It works the other way around in Nigeria - the higher the GDP, the lower the standard-of-living... What an abnormal country!

May God help us all..

Ok. I haff hears. Dis Land is not for sale beware of 4110!

Ok, As I'm typing from my bed now, I would be the 30th richest man on earth by 2014. #backtosleep#

@Mudfaces
As we speak 112million people in Naija live below $1 a day. Over 80 million or half of Nigerias population live in RURAL AREAS/VILLAGE boys(where theres poor roads,no electricity,poor education etc..). Am sure this makes ya'll feel better heyPOOR GIANTS wanna be. Their HDI index is still low... In HIV AIDS a research by a Nigerian Prof in UCT and Indian research institute shows Nigeria and India will overtake SA in HIV AIDS by 2016 onwards.

Pls ask me to bring this source

How does Nigeria want to be the 30th largest economy? In darkness without electricity?

Absolute Nonsense!

AND HOW HAS THAT AFFECTED MY INCOME


JUST MEANINGLESS RANKING

Una don start again...

NUMBER [size=25pt]70[/size]

AHHHHHHHHHH! EYIN BABA OSHI YI TI BAYE JE.
OLORIBUKUUUU.

Abegi,dont tell me nonsense!

the ranking is baseless if more than 50% of nigerians are still poor,it just doesnt make sense

for deir dream!!!!!!!!!!! mtchewww..

[size=18pt]AMEN![/size]

AM SURE THIS WILL BENEFIT SOUTH AFRICANS. We recall crookes and sell their properties and belongings to repay our stolen money. While Naija celebrates Forbes richlist while million of them are DAMN HUNGRY

One Nigerian living in SA said Nigerians don't PROBE THEIR NKANDLAS SA must celebrate its democracy. By now our loved Julius Malema knows crime doesnt pay, we like what he says but he mustn steal from us. His belongings were auctioned.

http://www.energy.gov.za/files/IEP/presentations/OilandGasReservesInSA_30March2012.pdf