silibaba: [NEWS TRADING]

hi, everyone

We have three high impact news releases scheduled for
today, with NFP being the focus of the day. I've added
an update to the analysis, so take a look if you haven't done
so already:

8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment

We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 115K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.1% Previous 8.1%
Deviation: 70K (BUY U SD 220K / SELL USD 80K)

The Trade Plan
Todays NFP Employment Change release is forecasted at 150K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.1%. If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (80K or worse) and slightly higher Unemployment Rate (8.2% or more), I´d be looking to SELL the USD against stronger currencies. On the other hand, if we get a positive NFP release (220K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains at or below 8.1%, USD should strengthen immediately and I would BUY USD against other weaker currencies (use CSM or recommended pairs above)

If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.

UPDATE – May 31, 2012
ADP NFP came out at 133K versus 139K expectation. Jobless Claim at 383K versus 370K expectation. 4-week average Jobless Claims now sits at 373K, slightly higher than the average of 370K… With the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI scheduled next week, we don’t really have much to go by to predict this NFP release, therefore I’d expect to see roughly inline figure around 150K.

It’s important also to consider the Birth-Death Adjustments, which is expected between +150K to +200K, and that is going to guarantee a NFP release above 100K for tomorrow… therefore on a significantly weaker release, we should see much weaker USD reaction as the prospect of QE3 would become more real.

NFP Trading Strategy
Let´s talk about how to trade this release: We´ll wait for the numbers to come out but continue to hold on a trade, Even if we get our tradable figures (220K to 80K). Wait for a possible revision of the previous release number of 115K as the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor that a solid trade will present itself if we dont get a conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release; at this point, still stay out of the market.

Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, were faced with an imperative decision at the time of the release.

After all of the numbers have been released, wait for the market to push and wait patiently for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components are extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter with a much better entry.


8:30am EST - CA GDP m/m (released at the same time as NFP)
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.5%

The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL CAD if we get a -0.5% or worse release, or we’ll BUY CAD on a 0.5% or better release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should give you the best combination of currencies to trade in the event of a better/worse news… of course, you can always trade the default pair for this release: USDCAD.

[BREAKING NEWS]

(US) US Fed's Bullard commented that he continued to see US
2012 GDP at 3%. He did note that additional Quantitative
Easing was possible if the US economy deteriorated but that
scenario was unlikely at this time. He forecasted end-2012
US Unemployment Rate at 7.8%. He noted that Europe was in a
grave situation and that the ECB liquidity injections were
not a fundamental solution. He stated that any Greece exit
the euro could occur without much damage to the European
Union but safe haven flows were affecting FX markets.

(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q ANNUALIZED: 1.9% V 1.9%E;
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.7% V 2.9%E.

(US) MAY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 133K V 150KE- Prior revised
down from +119K to +113K

How to interpret this?

US Economy continues to show resilience despite global
slowdown and European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Fed. Bullard
commented today that U.S. GDP is likely to reach 3% by the
end of the year and that further Quantitative Easing is on
the table although not likely. Bullard's position is the
reflection of the majority at FOMC and I believe QE3 will
probably not happen this year, especially considering that
the economy has not deteriorated to a point that would
require further Fed action, especially considering the low
bar (NFP 100K) that Bernanke set during his last FOMC Press
Conference.

Therefore, I would expect to see further strength in the
USD on reasons of better fundamental (in relation to
Europe), safe-haven status, and no QE3. Verdict: Keep on
selling EURUSD.

continue to enjoy the down-south


Thanks,

ItGeek:

nice one silibaba

silibaba: my platform showing OLD VERSION. anyone in same problem (fxPro)

silibaba: my platform showing OLD VERSION. anyone in same problem (fxPro)

silibaba: my platform showing OLD VERSION. anyone in same problem (fxPro)

pipsharvester: theyjih you no dey sleep abah

Theyjih:
oh boi when u wan enter Vet GRAD school u go sleep? pip dey to catch nah, xam dey to wryte..

Theyjih:
oh boi when u wan enter Vet GRAD school u go sleep? pip dey to catch nah, xam dey to wryte..

silibaba: my platform showing OLD VERSION. anyone in same problem (fxPro)

aguiyi: euro is finished, the us job data improved in may , 150,000 jobs added

Theyjih:
where u get ur own news? abi na pst TB Joshua tell u?

WINNINGWAYZ: In my opinion anyway, I see USD dropping across board. Am on buy EU. similar situations GU. lets see what happens over the weekend. On my 4hr chart,the divergence is very pronounced, as observed via my rsi (7). very potent. Anyway, am watching my trades closely. Am I crazy? already on profit so dont bother crying for me.

aguiyi: http://forum.liteforex.org/showthread.php?s=e02aa4e6a88d5560872063deacbaa88f&t=14098

another fellow caught off guard

tonjoan:

I can't agree any less with you. Much as we have two major supports at 1.2156 and 1.1856, lots of oscillators are already showing regular bullish divergence and should it play out, we should see 1.2667 on eu.

jamace:

Nna, na wa o. See how liteforex dey show clients pepper.