abugbe: pls so nigerians we shul start lokin 4 anoda alternative, mayb put most of our tim into agriculture. Dat ws wer we begin our life

cashcpt: When America wants to arrange regime change or total change in the power dynamics of a country they start by reducing or stopping trade with that country it happened in Gadaffi's Libya and Saddam's Iraq. Their State Department then goes on to castigate everything abt the target country in a similar format to d official statements dat were released just last week where Jonathan the Ministers the Nigeria Police EFCC and Legislators were indicted for gross corruption amidst other sins. Nigeria is over you guys can forget abt 2015 the violent and messy disintegration starts in d 2nd half of 2012. There wld be much shedding of blood

Piyke: Report predicts bleak future for Nigeria’s oil, gas reserves
Friday, 25 May 2012 00:00 By Sulaimon Salau Business Services - Business News

A NEW report published by the Business Monitor International has predicted a bleak future for Nigeria’s oil and gas reserve base. While the oil reserve has been estimated to peak at about 40.05 billion barrels in 2016, it will later decline to 27.90 billion barrels by 2021.

The 46 per cent decline may have been premised on the speculations that Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves will decline and may eventually dry up in the next 45 years.

However, the recent trend of investment in the industry due to uncertainty over the delayed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) may be postulating the same.

Read complete report here: http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=87137:report-predicts-bleak-future-for-nigerias-oil-gas-reserves&catid=31:business&Itemid=562

I hope our leaders take note of this and begin to diversify the economy. The UAE decided to transform dubai into a must-go in tourism in anticipation of when their reserves run out in 2016. I guess our leaders don't really conceive that we would ever run out of the black gold.

I believe it will first hit Nigeria when UAE runs out of oil and gas in 2016 as predicted. The good thing is they've built an alternative; tourism.

oyb: i was reading about fracking in the economist

not exactly the same article, but. . .

http://www.economist.com/node/21540256



long and short of it, there seems to be a serious abundance of gas as a source of energy

who knows we may even see a preponderance of gas powered cars

our bigger customers are going out the window. . .

Mr. Globe:
Wahala dey oh. Everything in Nigeria is falling apart. GEJ is heavy badluck to the country. Very soon I will what the Niger delta people claim to fame will be. Why not divide this nation let everybody manage their resources

cashcpt: When America wants to arrange regime change or total change in the power dynamics of a country they start by reducing or stopping trade with that country it happened in Gadaffi's Libya and Saddam's Iraq. Their State Department then goes on to castigate everything abt the target country in a similar format to d official statements dat were released just last week where Jonathan the Ministers the Nigeria Police EFCC and Legislators were indicted for gross corruption amidst other sins. Nigeria is over you guys can forget abt 2015 the violent and messy disintegration starts in d 2nd half of 2012. There wld be much shedding of blood

Beaf: Its no surprise when Nigerian "engineers" cannot even scale up simple solar processes (they know themselves).
It is good for America to divest from our oil business for a thousand and one reasons from our attainning a truly federal state to diversifying away from oil. Maybe all awuf takers will now begin to sit up and rethink our entire Abuja awuf culture.

HNosegbe: Yet another reason why we must move to break free from dependence on oil.

Please read my article on the Guardian on this issue: http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=82167:-a-practical-approach-to-breaking-the-resource-curse&catid=67:you-report-lagos&Itemid=583

haka_nai: Apart form the USA internal dimension,The issue of insecurity around oil producing countries and route.The USA is turning to the Americas,especially Canada for oil.Since Canada is expanding her ability to explore and export her tar-sand oil to her neighbor USA.The ease,security and proximity will go along away in changing the equation to travel to trouble zones(middle east,Africa etc) for oil.

CyberG: ^^ Both of you are missing something: the exports to Asia would be at reduced profit to compensate for the longer distance required to transport the oil. Plus, the Chinese are guaranteed to want anything and everything for rock-bottom cheap prices!

ballabriggs:

My Oga, you do realise this is a violation of the Economists intellectual property rights? The Economist operates a subscription policy for their articles and it is inappropriate that you share such with that yob ranting all over this thread. Please take it down.

texazzpete:

Nigeria is losing the United States as its biggest oil customer amid surging output and refinery closures in North America, prompting Africa’s top producer to ship its crude twice the distance to Asia.
U.S purchases of Nigerian crude fell to a five-year low in February, knocking the OPEC member to sixth from fifth among suppliers to the world’s largest oil consumer, Energy Department data show, Bloomberg reports.
To offset the trend, the country is sending cargoes to Asia, where refiners are set to increase imports in June to the highest in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Qua Iboe, a light oil that’s Nigeria’s most abundant grade, slumped to an 18-month low in April as buyers in Asia that typically use cheaper, heavier crudes, demanded price cuts to cover the cost of shipping it halfway around the world.
The voyage from the Bonny Terminal in Nigeria to Tianjin, China, is 12,172 miles, compared with 5,847 miles to New York Harbour.
“It’s a very plausible scenario that one day the U.S won’t need to import crude oil from Nigeria,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix, a Zug, Switzerland-based consultant. “The U.S is awash with light crude. Nigerian crude may need to be priced at a discount to go to new markets in Asia.”
Boosted by drilling in shale-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford, crude production in the U.S rose to 6.24 million barrels a day in the week ended May 18, the highest level since 1999, government data show. The country’s Nigerian oil imports fell to 352,000 barrels a day in February, about a third of the amount purchased a year earlier, according to the Energy Department.
Refiners are closing plants on the U.S East Coast, the main destination for Nigerian exports, amid falling returns. Sunoco idled the 194,000-barrel-a-day Marcus Hook plant in Pennsylvania on December 1.
The company also said it would decide by July whether to halt production at its 355,000-barrel-a-day Philadelphia plant. ConocoPhillips stopped its 190,000-barrel-a-day Trainer, Pa., site on September 30. The facilities together account for half of East Coast processing capacity.

“The U.S. is losing its position as a lead buyer of Nigerian crude,” said David Wech, an analyst at JBC Energy in Vienna.
The slide in Nigeria’s status as a U.S. supplier marks the decline of a relationship that dates from 1961, when Texaco Overseas began operations in the African producer. The country kept up exports to the U.S even as attacks by militant groups in the Niger Delta cut output by more than 28 per cent from 2006 to 2009.
Reduced U.S demand still hasn’t curtailed Nigeria’s exports. Crude and condensate sales are on course to rise to 2.27 million barrels a day next month, close to their highest level in 10 months, according to loading programs obtained by Bloomberg News.
Demand for Nigeria’s oil may also be supported by South Africa as it seeks replacement sources amid international sanctions against Iran.



http://www.punchng.com/news/u-s-cuts-demand-for-nigerias-crude/

debosky: The key here is to begin to develop long-term relationships with Asian consumers. Oil consumption in the West is going to fall/remain flat in the medium term, and will be lower in the short term while economic growth struggles.

The loss of profit is an issue though, but we may be able to counter that by increasing production. A forward looking government would ensure that issues on shut in onshore fields like the Ogoni get resolved swiftly so such easily accessible resources can be brought into production.

There might also be a price spike when Iran's sanctions kick in later this year, which may help restore any profits lost on reduced US trade.

This affects more than oil though - the abundant shale gas reserves in the US may alos have affected some of our LNG exports as well. Given that the US is now in the process of planning/building LNG export facilities, our traditional markets in Europe may be threatened as well. I wonder how viable the likes of Brass LNG and Olokola LNG will be now given these changing market dynamics.

debosky: ^^

Not sure about severe austerity. . . .many will argue they didn't feel the impact of high oil prices, so they (think) won't feel the impact of lower prices/revenue.

The truth as they say will be in the eating. Speaking about eating, the real issue is whether those robbing us blind will adjust their stealing in line with reduced revenue or will they continue like the cash will never run out. . .

texazzpete: Also of note...many refineries are closing down in the US because of low profit margins or sustained losses.

I remember telling many of the folks on NL here that the stories from the FG that Nigeria would soon be awash with companies desperate to build refineries were just plain lies! Not many believed me. Na wa!