Jerekre:



Where can one get such info on Nigerian stocks?

Quite a few sites. check through the links below
http://www.nse.com.ng/
http://www.bloomberg.com/topics/nigeria/
http://wwww.easykobo.com/
http://www.proshareng.com/
http://www.ebtsconsults.com/

Note: ProshareNg has a sister website called TheAnalyst though you would need to subscribe to get full access. However an easy way out is to follow them on twitter.

Follow the following handles on Twitter
@TheEconomist
@StockmanNigeria
@TheAnalystNG
@ade9ynoni

if you have Dstv or Gotv, watch the following stations
CNBC Africa(410 on dstv)
Bloomberg(411 on dstv)

Nairalanders should please help out with the station numbers with respect to GOTV

I do hope this would go a long way.

ephi123:
Would be good if you could pick a random stock and do a quick analysis using the criteria you just explained.

Would do just that in a bit.

CountDracula:
Just have a question, what is stock?

the link below hopefully should clear your doubts, insinuations, assumptions et all about Nigerian stocks
https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick

Picking the right stocks in the market to invest in is not an easy task, and your success in picking the right ones is not always guaranteed.

Be that as it may, these eight signs can help you determine if a stock is getting set to crash.

1. If the company has a negative cash flow.

Cash flow is a company’s lifeline. When a company’s cash payments are bigger than its receipts, it means the company has a negative cash flow that can eventually lead to insolvency.

2. High Debt to Equity Ratio

A debt-to-equity ratio measures a company’s bankruptcy risk by comparing its long- and short-term debts to its shareholders’ equity. A high ratio usually means the company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. Eventually, this debt can become too much to handle.

3. Interest coverage ratio

The interest coverage ratio reveals if a company is having difficulty paying its debt. If a company’s ratio is below 1, it can’t meet its debt obligations with the period’s earnings before interest and tax.

4. The usual share price decline

The fourth sign is a decline in share prices. A sustained decline almost always precedes a corporate collapse. As an example set in the US, Enron’s stock started falling 16 months before it went bust. But also, a declining stock can signal a buying opportunity. Consider the next four signs to distinguish between a collapse and an opportunity.

5. Listen to profit warnings

Profit warnings should be taken very seriously. Growing evidence suggests markets under-react to bad news. Don’t forget to always listen to analyst calls, as you can glean very useful information from the questions being asked by analysts who cover the stock.

6. Watch out for stock market activity of the company owners, directors or executives

Companies must divulge insider trading, as in the purchase and sales of shares owned by substantial shareholders or directors. They have the most current intel, so heavy selling or buying can be a sign.

7. Sudden exit of key staff of the company

The sudden resignation of key executives or directors can also be a bad sign. Companies may sack a key executive as a sign that the company has had a terrible misstep and is making management changes as atonement, or as a sign of realization that management has been under-performing.

8. Investigations by regulatory bodies

Finally, formal investigations by regulators such as SEC, frequently precedes a collapse. Companies may dabble into wrongdoing in order to stay afloat when they get into financial distress. When the company is being investigated, it is very likely that they have been caught in the process, and will pay for their crimes. And the shareholders will ultimately suffer for it.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/these-8-signs-can-tell-you-if-stock-is.html

The Nigerian All Share Index declined today, 22nd of October, 2015 by -0.57% to close at 30, 025.62bpts and mark a negative end. Market breadth (0.65x) skewed in favour of the decliners, as 17Gainers Vs 26Losers, YTD stands at -13.36%. Oando (+5.37%) led the advancers, while Okomuoil (-9.74%) led the decliners.

ASI INDEX: 30,025.62

NO OF DEALS: 2,962.00

VOLUME TRADED: 284,117,816.00

MARKET CAP: 10,319,183,256,423.83

For full details, visit: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigerian-stock-exchange-thursdays-result.html

The Nigerian All Share Index declined by -0.42% to close at 30,199.15bpts and mark a negative end. Market breadth (0.71x) skewed in favour of the decliners, as 15 Gainers Vs 21 Losers, YTD stands at -12.86%. Oando (+8.34%) led the advancers, while Arbico (-4.91%) led the decliners.

ASI INDEX: 29,667.24

NO OF DEALS: 2,768.00

VOLUME TRADED: 207,560,520.00

MARKET CAP: 10,378,820,094,682.50

For full details, visit http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigerian-stock-exchange-wednesdays_21.html

Analysts share their views on the investment climate in Nigeria at the moment. Apart from another Naira devaluation, they see interest rate cuts ahead which may be a surprise to many given the weak currency and rising inflation. They also like bonds at the moment and promising signs for fiscal policy.

Tightening only deferred in the US:
The Federal Reserve did not move in September although domestic economic conditions warranted a hike. It hesitated due to global market choppiness emanating mostly from China. Ultimately it has to tighten, and is likely to raise rates in either December or January. Nigeria will not be among the main losers from the tightening, which, the Fed insists, will be shallower than previous cycles.

Another devaluation on its way:
We see another devaluation ahead. The CBN’s administrative measures and market ploys will be inadequate to hold the line in the face of pressure on reserves and of still healthy fx demand for imports. Its resistance may continue into the New Year but we forecast an inter-bank rate of N215 per US$ at end-2015.

Next policy rate move to be downward:
We sense that the MPC has become relaxed about above-target inflation and is looking to encourage a sluggish economy. The “disconnect” with the real economy notwithstanding, we see three rate cuts in 2016 and an end-year policy rate of 11.50%.

Promising signals on new fiscal policy:
There are great fiscal expectations surrounding the new administration. Some steps on leakages have been taken and the authorities have given a good account of their fiscal preparations. We do not expect any danger of deficit widening although we must wait for the 2016 budget to see whether a sizeable reduction in waste, more productive spending and a bolder borrowing strategy are to be delivered.

Recommendation for investors:
We see FGN bond yields within a range of 13.50% to 15.00% in the next quarter. We favour the long bond, which has not fully enjoyed the recent rally resulting from the CBN’s boost to liquidity.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analyst-opinion-uncertainity-outweighs.html

Two prominent banks will face sanctions this week for circumventing the Presidential directive on the Treasury Single Account (TSA).

It was gathered on Saturday that the CBN was considering either a hefty financial sanction, suspension or removal of the CEOs, and the dissolution of the board of directors for the banks.

It was revealed that one of the banks is being sanctioned for the concealment of over N37 billion from the account of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) while the second bank is yet to return over N100 billion belonging to NNPC despite warnings by CBN Director of Banking Supervision, Mrs. Tokunbo Martins, in several letters to the banks and admonition by the Central Bank Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, through the Bankers’ Committee that banks who still hold Federal Government’s funds will face severe sanctions.

About N1.2trillion had been withdrawn from the banking system into the CBN rather than an expected N1.5 trillion.

To reflate the banking system however, the CBN reduced the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) from 31 per cent to 25 per cent, and maintained the MPR at 13 percent.


Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/why-two-prominent-banks-will-get.html

After 125 days of anticipation, President Buhari submitted a list of ministers, which was greeted with a yawn. The president had to make serious trade offs between capacity, integrity, vision and experience. In the meantime, a substantial amount of political capital was squandered.

The new team is made up of mainly seasoned and tested hands with sprinkles of reformers. In all, the median score is for good performance with a potential upside for stability and reform in the next 2 quarters. The challenges are daunting but the energy level is high. Only 20% of the nominees are pro-economic reform, 60% are core administrators and hands-on managers. The balance of 20%, are conservative and will be reluctant to change. Therefore overall, the team will be progressive but will need some ideological debriefing for optimality.

These and other burning issues are discussed in this edition of the LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.

To download the full report, follow the link below

http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/lbs-executive-breakfast-session-oct2015.html

The presidency has authorized an experiment in oil joint-venture (jv) financing which will be welcomed by the industry. A letter from the new group managing director of the NNPC, Emmanuel Kachikwu, and countersigned by the head of state, identified Nigeria LNG as the business model. (The authenticity of the letter, according to a wire service, has been confirmed by the industry, if not by NNPC officials contacted.)

The jvs will be responsible for their own financing, and will pay royalties, taxes and dividends. They will therefore be detached from the federal budget and not waiting patiently for the payment of cash calls (the corporation’s share of their budgets). Initially the new format will be tested on some of the smaller jvs between the corporation and indigenous operators.

The story on the wires broke at the same time as a breakout session on energy policy on day two of the 21st Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja. Kachikwu’s letter echoed calls at the session for the creation of independent jvs.

·A speaker from a top accountancy firm noted that production by the jvs had declined by 30% over the past decade, and probably far more. Late or non-payment of cash calls has slowed investment and therefore production. Theft, sabotage and insecurity are additional reasons. (Fortunately rising output under production-sharing contracts ((PSCs)) has largely offset the decline from jvs.)

Two panelists from the IOCs stressed the large tax take for the FGN. One said that the industry had paid out more than US$400bn in taxes over the past decade, including US$147bn from just one company. He struggled therefore to understand cash call arrears of US$6bn across the industry at end-2014 as well as dues under one PSC of a further US$10bn. Echoing a common complaint, he noted that his company pays 18 separate taxes/levies.

Two panelists from indigenous producers made the point that they suffered little, if any sabotage. One acknowledged the challenge of stealing his company’s dry gas and the other stressed the value of working with, and rewarding the local communities.

A panelist from the NNPC pledged that the average cycle for the completion of an oil industry contract would be slashed from 36 to six months in the next month. He put current crude oil production at 2.3 mpbd according to analysts at FBN Capital in Ikoyi.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigeria-fx-rules-backed-by-woman-who.html

Fidelity Bank Plc said it plans to launch the Green Mall, an online market place with fully integrated e-commerce capabilities for online payment engine, delivery logistics, advertising boards, and business networking opportunities, for SMEs.

This was disclosed by the Executive Director, South, Fidelity Bank, Aku Odinkemelu, at the bank’s South-East Regional SME conference recently.

Odinkemelu, noted that the numbers of SMEs in Nigeria has increased from 17 million in 2011 to 37 million as at 2013. According to her, the sector now employs 60 – 80 per cent of the workforce while contributing over 60 per cent to the country's GDP.

She expressed concern that SMEs in Nigeria were faced with key challenges. These challenges, she enumerated to include, low level of business management capacity; inadequate business processes; inadequate research/market information to determine business viability; poor access to market; limited access to the export markets; inadequate record keeping; absence of proper business planning; lack of long term strategy and poor business model; low technology leverage; key man risk, etc.

She stated that the Fidelity approach comes handy. According to her, the bank work with a network of pre-qualified SME-friendly professional services firms who provide business management capacity building support and services to our SMEs at discounted rates.

“We have developed a partnership with Sage to develop FSBA+, a product that integrates Sage One Accounting Software to the FSBA to enhance recording for our SMEs,” she maintained.

Continuing, she explained that funders should allow nil/low-cost of banking transactions to enable MSMEs build up relevant transactions/activity history to position them more strongly for formal lenders (e.g. Fidelity Small Business Account); de-risk the sector by developing and offering customized product paper loans that could take the following forms: Cluster Lending Programmes that identify industry and market peculiarities ( Fidelity Aba Leather Cluster Credit Product Paper, Obosi Industrial Cluster Credit Product, Credit Product for Medical Doctors and pharmacists, Fidelity Commercial Support Short Term Loans for identified business cluster, etc), among others.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/fidelity-to-launch-online-marketplace.html

Kemi Adeosun, tipped by some analysts to be the next Nigerian finance minister, said a currency devaluation on its own won’t solve the nation’s economic problems and she supports the central bank’s foreign-exchange restrictions.

“What the Central Bank of Nigeria governor has done is brought in some breathing space because if we allowed the market to continue, all our reserves would have been depleted,” Adeosun, 48, told lawmakers during her Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday.

President Muhammadu Buhari nominated Adeosun, a former investment banker and London-trained accountant, as a cabinet minister, without disclosing what portfolio she may lead. Analysts including Bismarck Rewane of the Financial Derivatives Co. in Lagos, and Manji Cheto, vice president of risk adviser Teneo Intelligence in London, said she may be finance minister, given her position as finance commissioner of Ogun state in the south-west of Nigeria for the past four years.

Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele has resisted pressure from investors and fellow policy makers to devalue the naira despite a plunge in oil revenue, introducing foreign-exchange controls instead to stabilize the currency. The naira has averaged 198.99 per dollar since the restrictions were imposed in February.

“There are pros and cons around devaluation,” Adeosun said. “Adjusting the foreign exchange rate on its own in isolation will not solve our problems.”
Second Candidate

Buhari’s finance minister will need to restore confidence in Africa’s biggest economy in the face of lower oil prices, slowing economic growth and attacks by Boko Haram militants.

The economy of Africa’s biggest oil producer grew at its slowest pace this decade at 2.4 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, as falling income from crude exports and foreign-exchange shortages hit businesses.

Buhari named Okechukwu Enelamah on a second list of cabinet nominees this week, a private equity investor who also stands a chance of being finance minister, according to Lagos-based ARM Investment Managers. He is founder and chief executive officer of African Capital Alliance, which was formed in 1997 and has raised more than $750 million in finance for investments in industries from technology and financial services to oil and gas.

Enelamah, who has an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, previously worked at Goldman Sachs Group in New York and Arthur Andersen LLP in Nigeria, according to the website of African Capital Alliance.
Lower Rates

Adeosun, whose nomination was approved by the Senate on Wednesday, has degrees in economics and public financial management from universities in London, according to her LinkedIn profile. She worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in London and at Chapel Hill Denham Ltd., a Nigerian investment bank, before becoming finance commissioner of Ogun state in 2011. It has the seventh smallest economy of Nigeria’s 36 states, according to Renaissance Capital.

Adeosun added that she’s in favor of lower interest rates and reducing the government’s spending on salaries and overheads from 78 percent of the budget. The government must increase revenue, spend it better and seek other sources of funding, she said.

“What we need to do is strategize and the solution will not just be exchange rate,” she said. “The exchange rate is not the silver bullet, it’s not the wonder drug. It has to be accompanied with fiscal policies and monetary policies and industrial policies.”

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigeria-fx-rules-backed-by-woman-who.html

The Presidency yesterday met with governors of some rice-producing states concerning a new policy on agriculture and food sustainability with a view to banning importation of rice into Nigeria in the next two years.

The meeting was chaired by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, and was also attended by permanent secretaries of relevant ministries and governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Zamfara state governor and chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum, Abdulaziz Yari, on behalf of his colleagues explained the outcome of the meeting to State House correspondents.

According to him: “we discussed how we can boost rice production in Nigeria and start thinking about how we are going to put policy in place on how rice importation will be banned in the country."

“We have the potential; we have the human resources; we have the arable land to grow rice."

“In the next two years, we will not need to bring rice from outside Nigeria. We are going to ban it. It is only in Nigeria, a country of millions of people, that there is no food security."

“The policy is going to be in place and we gave our commitment that we are ready to support the government policy in ensuring that Nigeria becomes self-sufficient in food production in the next two years.”

When reminded of similar statements from other government officials in the past, Yari replied that the political will of the present administration would make the difference.

His words: “Nigeria is currently a major importer of rice. Now, the political will is in place to stop it. We in about nine states are going to be seriously engaged in massive rice production.

“We are hoping that in the next two years, rice importation into Nigeria will be banned. We are committed and the political will is in place.”

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/fg-to-ban-rice-imports-by-2017.html

Oil majors operating in Nigeria are growing concerned about the possibility that the government alters the terms of their production-sharing contracts in order to raise more revenues.

The new government of Muhammadu Buhari is scrambling to find ways to plug budget holes. Between July 2014 and September 2015, receipts for the state-owned National Nigerian Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from selling oil dropped by two-thirds. Nigeria is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for government revenues, and with oil prices down by half from a year ago, fiscal pressure is forcing public officials to take action.

Buhari’s government has said it is interested in renegotiating contracts with oil majors, with some of the contracts dating back to the 1990s. The intention is to tweak the terms in order to boost the government’s take.

There are several majors operating in Nigeria, including Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Eni, and most importantly, Royal Dutch Shell. Shell has been operating in Nigeria for decades. On October 5, Shell announced that it had started up the third phase of its offshore Bonga facility, which will have peak production of 50,000 barrels per day.

In response to the possibility of changing the contracts, an executive from one of the international oil majors reportedly said to the FT: “Don’t mess with the fiscal terms.”

International companies are already slashing spending on new projects as they try to shore up their balance sheets. But the unfolding drama in Nigeria represents a new challenge. Oil-producing countries are also struggling, so battles over how to slice up the revenues from oil fields could proliferate.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analyst-opinion-nigeria-could-shoot.html

Oil majors operating in Nigeria are growing concerned about the possibility that the government alters the terms of their production-sharing contracts in order to raise more revenues.

The new government of Muhammadu Buhari is scrambling to find ways to plug budget holes. Between July 2014 and September 2015, receipts for the state-owned National Nigerian Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from selling oil dropped by two-thirds. Nigeria is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for government revenues, and with oil prices down by half from a year ago, fiscal pressure is forcing public officials to take action.


Buhari’s government has said it is interested in renegotiating contracts with oil majors, with some of the contracts dating back to the 1990s. The intention is to tweak the terms in order to boost the government’s take.


There are several majors operating in Nigeria, including Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Eni, and most importantly, Royal Dutch Shell. Shell has been operating in Nigeria for decades. On October 5, Shell announced that it had started up the third phase of its offshore Bonga facility, which will have peak production of 50,000 barrels per day.


In response to the possibility of changing the contracts, an executive from one of the international oil majors reportedly said to the FT: “Don’t mess with the fiscal terms.”


International companies are already slashing spending on new projects as they try to shore up their balance sheets. But the unfolding drama in Nigeria represents a new challenge. Oil-producing countries are also struggling, so battles over how to slice up the revenues from oil fields could proliferate.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analyst-opinion-nigeria-could-shoot.html

Oil majors operating in Nigeria are growing concerned about the possibility that the government alters the terms of their production-sharing contracts in order to raise more revenues.

The new government of Muhammadu Buhari is scrambling to find ways to plug budget holes. Between July 2014 and September 2015, receipts for the state-owned National Nigerian Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from selling oil dropped by two-thirds. Nigeria is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for government revenues, and with oil prices down by half from a year ago, fiscal pressure is forcing public officials to take action.

Buhari’s government has said it is interested in renegotiating contracts with oil majors, with some of the contracts dating back to the 1990s. The intention is to tweak the terms in order to boost the government’s take.

There are several majors operating in Nigeria, including Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Eni, and most importantly, Royal Dutch Shell. Shell has been operating in Nigeria for decades. On October 5, Shell announced that it had started up the third phase of its offshore Bonga facility, which will have peak production of 50,000 barrels per day.

In response to the possibility of changing the contracts, an executive from one of the international oil majors reportedly said to the FT: “Don’t mess with the fiscal terms.”

International companies are already slashing spending on new projects as they try to shore up their balance sheets. But the unfolding drama in Nigeria represents a new challenge. Oil-producing countries are also struggling, so battles over how to slice up the revenues from oil fields could proliferate.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analyst-opinion-nigeria-could-shoot.html

The Nigerian All Share Index declined by -0.57% to close at 30, 058.40bpts and mark a negative end. Market breadth skewed in favour of the decliners, as 24 Gainers Vs 26 Losers, YTD stands at -13.27%. Seplat (+6.00%) led the advancers, while Dangcem (-3.00%) led the decliners.

ASI INDEX: 30,058.40

NO OF DEALS: 2,930.00

VOLUME TRADED: 124,242,610.00

MARKET CAP: 10,330,447,521,754.98


Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigerain-stock-exchage-tuesdays-result.html

The Nigerian All Share Index advanced by 0.22% to close at 30, 231.16bpts and mark a positive end. Market breadth (1.87x) skewed in favour of the advancers, as 28 Gainers Vs 15 Losers, YTD stands at -12.77%. FO (+10.01%) led the advancers, while NB (-2.00%) led the decliners.

ASI INDEX: 30,231.16

NO OF DEALS: 2,900.00

VOLUME TRADED: 134,616,607.00

MARKET CAP: 10,389,820,802,366.48

Here are the top 5 gainers and decliners for the day


Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/nigerian-stock-exchange-mondays-result.html

As the foreign exchange market records further widening of the parallel market margin, the Director, African Department of International Monetary Fund, IMF, Ms Antoinette Sayer, has said that measures put in place by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to restrict access to foreign exchange, forex, needed to be reviewed.

While CBN forex trading window had exchange rate stabled at N197/US $1 last week, pressure however continued to mount at the parallel market, as the Naira depreciated from N224/ US $1 to N2250/US $1 during the week, sustaining the slide for the third week consecutively, thereby widening the exchange gap between the CBN official window and the parallel market.

The gap, according to market analysts, underscores market inefficiency

The depreciation in the value of the Naira in the parallel market has continually been attributed to insufficient supply of the foreign currency in the market.

Market operators say “barring any major pronouncement from CBN this week, we expect rate to trade within the current band.”

CBN had removed 41 items from access to its foreign exchange window on grounds that they could easily be produced in Nigeria rather than spend the country’s reserves on importing them.

Silent on importation of local products

Though Sayer said the restriction seems detrimental, when asked if Nigeria should continue to import goods it can produce locally, she did not respond.

In the interactive session with the media, she said: “The central bank has introduced administrative measures that limit access to foreign exchange and ban certain imports as a way of restricting the demand for foreign exchange.

“Those are measures that are quite detrimental, we think. It has certainly led to a lot of unhappiness in the private sector, as far as we’ve been aware, and understand that private investors see this as very detrimental to their economic activities.

“It is not something we think is sustainable or advisable. We hope that there will be an opportunity to review those restrictions and permit the exchange rate to continue to adjust.

“Of course, the exchange rate pressures in Nigeria and other oil producers has been considerable in the course of this past year because of what has happened in terms of, for example, foreign exchange earnings as oil prices have reduced those considerably, and the demand for foreign exchange continues to exert considerable pressure on their exchange rates.

Effect of elections, FG’s policy

“In the case of Nigeria, of course, a number of other factors have been at play. Those, of course, include in the run up to the elections: some uncertainties about what the possible outcome of those elections would be.

“Since the elections, there has been continued uncertainty about the policy direction that the current administration is going to take, the waiting for a cabinet, and the vision and plans for pursuing the reform effort and what can be expected from that.

“It is certainly the case that there are a number of factors that have led to pressures on the Naira. In response, of course, the exchange rate, being an important instrument of adjustment in countries that have a flexible exchange rate, we think it is appropriate to allow the exchange rate to depreciate, with a view to helping to contain the demand for more foreign exchange and to help contain the level of imports that was not sustainable in light of the shock to the Nigerian economy.

“The exchange rate plays a very important role there. There are countries that do not have the exchange rate and as a result have an even more arduous burden of adjustment on the fiscal side.

“That is what Nigeria and other countries that have an exchange rate can avoid. So we think it is appropriate to have the exchange rate adjust.


Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/mf-urges-cbn-to-review-forex-policy-imf.html
‘CBN measures detrimental’

“As you say, of course, the central bank has introduced administrative measures that limit access to foreign exchange and that ban certain imports as a way of restricting the demand for foreign exchange.

“Those are measures that are quite detrimental we think. It has certainly led to a lot of unhappiness in the private sector. As far as we have been aware, and understands that private investors see this as very detrimental to their economic activities.

“It is not something we think is sustainable or advisable. We hope that there will be an opportunity to review those restrictions and permit the exchange rate to continue to adjust.

“You asked what that meant for the Nigerian population as a whole. Clearly, some of the products that are being disallowed are products that average Nigerians buys. The restrictions on those products are already making it harder for the average person to buy milk or to buy milk at an affordable price.

“So they are already feeling the impact of those restrictions: not in a very beneficial way. So we think it is certainly advisable to have a second look at those.

‘Sub-Sahara economy week’

“Now, although growth remains stronger than in many other regions, economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa has weakened markedly in recent months.

“In fact, the very strong growth momentum evident in recent years has dissipated in quite a few countries.

And as a result, growth in the region is now expected at some three and three-quarters percent in 2015,

which is the slowest pace we had seen since 2009.

“But we think it will strengthen somewhat to four and a quarter percent in 2016. To understand the reasons behind this slow down it is useful to look at the key factors that have supported the high growth of the region over the past decade or so and perhaps the most important of those factors has been the vastly improved business and macroeconomic environment that policy makers have put in place.

“In addition, high commodity prices have also played a role, especially among oil exporters and highly accommodative financial conditions, which have boosted capital flows to the region over the last eight years, facilitating investment.

“However, of late these two last factors, as you know, have become far less supportive. Commodity prices have fallen sharply and financing conditions have become more difficult.

“The upshot is the deceleration in activity that the region is experiencing.

“In particular, with high commodity prices having played a role in some of the largest economies such as

Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, their current difficulties are weighing down the regional average numbers. This overall picture, however, marks considerable variation across the region.

“In most low income countries growth is holding up, averaging about six percent in 2015 as investment in infrastructure and private consumption remain strong in those countries. But even within that group, some countries are being negatively affected by the sharp decline in the price of main commodity exports.

Oil producers hard hit

“Even more hard hit are the eight oil exporting countries, which together account for half of the regions GDP and include Nigeria and Angola.

“Their falling export incomes and sharp fiscal adjustment are taking their toll on growth, which is expected to decelerate sharply to three and a half percent this year from six percent in 2014.

“Several middle income countries are also facing unfavourable conditions resulting from a combination of supply shocks such as electricity shortages in Ghana, Zambia and South Africa and more difficult financial conditions and weaker commodity prices.

“In many countries, prospects are further compounded by the generally limited fiscal space and foreign exchange reserves.”

Increased liquidity in the money market last week has further forced down yields on government securities as Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, steps up efforts to achieve its targeted sales for the remaining part of this year.

The apex bank has raised N127.07 billion in trading Nigerian Treasury Bills, NTB, whose maturities range between three months and one year at lower yields compared with its previous auction. CBN last month announced that the it planned to auction N814.78 billion in NTB between September 17 and December 3, 2015.

The apex bank sold N25.40 billion of the 91-day paper at a yield of 10 percent, which is lower than 10.50 percent rate at the previous trading session in September. It sold N33.49 billion worth of six-month NTB at a yield of 12.20 percent, down from 13.39 percent on September 02, 2015 and paid 12.50 percent to sell N68.18 billion of one-year debt less than the 14.69 percent yield at the previous auction. The yield peaked at 14.71 per cent at the August 05 auction.

In all yields has declined four consecutive times in the past two months. Available information on the CBN’s NTB plan indicated that government would auction N215.12billion worth of the three-month instrument, N238.5billion in the six-month instrument and N419.34billion worth in the one-year instrument.

Previous week, Federal Government bond prices appreciated and corresponding yields fell on continued bargain hunting activities at the over the counter market but risk adjusted returns remained attractive.

The 10-year, 16.39 per cent FGN January 2022 bond gained N2.0 (yield decreased to 15.51 per cent); the 7-year, 16.00 per cent FGN June 2019 bond climbed by N1.66 (yield decreased to 14.69 per cent); the 5-year 15.10 per cent FGN April 2017 bond gained N0.90 (yield declined to 14.66 per cent); while the 3-year, 13.05 per cent FGN August 2016 bond instrument upped by N0.34 (yield fell to 14.04 per cent).

However, the 20-year, 10.00 per cent FGN July 2030 bond remained steady at 15.51 per cent. At the international bond market, FGN Eurobonds depreciated on sell-offs amid decline in external reserves- week-on-week, the reserves declined by 0.5 per cent to N30.54 billion (from N30.69 billion). Week-on-week, the 10-year, 6.75 per cent FGN January 2021 paper fell by USD1.77 (yield rose to 7.11 per cent) while the 5-year, 5.13 per cent FGN July 2018 bond declined by USD0.81 (yield increased to 5.47 per cent).

Also, the 10-year, 6.38 per cent FGN July 2023 bond lost USD2.32 (yield jumped to 7.54 per cent).


Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/treasury-bill-yields-decline-further.html

Rak Unity an obscure Oil and Gas Company shocked investors on Wednesday after it proposed a dividend payment of 30kobo per share for a stock that is trading at 50kobo per share. This suggest a dividend yield of 60% by far the highest this year and possibly the highest in years by any Nigerian company. Despite this

huge dividend yield, the share price remained at 50 kobo per share and will likely remain so for a while. We will explain the reason for that later but first the result.

Revenue

The company reported a revenue of N7.2 billion 89% higher than the N3.8 billion posted a year earlier. Its revenue is dividend into AGO, PMS, DPK and Lubes. Revenue from AGO (diesel) was N6.3billion taking up about 87.5% of total revenue.

RAK Unity however operates a very strange business model. According to its report, the company says a significant portion of its revenue is sold through a subsidiary called SO Energy. SO Energy collects about 10% of revenue as commission on sales and sold about N5.7 billion or 79% of total revenues. There probably won’t have been something wrong with this model except for that whilst Rak Unity makes N2.8 for every N100 of sales it pays its related party N10 for every N100 of sales. In other words, its related party basically earns more than 3 times what the company makes. This essentially gives SO Energy effective control over RAK Unity’s business

Earnings and dividends

The company reported a profit after tax of N89.7million at the end of the period arriving at an earnings per share of N1.59 (+100% YoY). The company’s dividend per share of 30k will therefore cost the company just N17 million or a dividend payout ratio of just 18.8%.

The company reports that one shareholder Toparte Nigeria Ltd owns about 85% of the total shares of the company. As such, 85% of that dividend is going to Toparte whilst the public (5,907 shareholders) will have to share the balance N2.5 million.

Buy or blank?

If you are looking to own shares in this company because of the dividends then be ready to own this shares for a very long time. Liquidity is non existent and even if you wanted to buy you might not see anyone who can sell to you.

Finally,

Rak Unity being a related party to SO Energy, a member of the Sahara Group of companies also catches our attention. The Group announced it was looking to raise equity via a dual listing on the floor of the NSE and in the UK. With Rak Unity being a related party and mostly obscure for years, we won’t be surprised if a merger or acquisition deal is announced in the future.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analysis-is-rak-unitys-60-dividend.html

A closer look on the daily chart of UNITYBANK reveals that earlier stock was making successive lower lows and lower highs and heading towards south side. Overall, the bulls and the bears were trading into a consolidation phase where both the bulls and the bears were fighting with each other and unable to move on either side. However, in just a week, the bulls seems to have taking its full stride as the stock gained a whopping 25% percent in just 5 days. The stock began the week at #1.3 and ended the week at #1.62.

Company Details

Unity Bank is a full-fledged financial service center with strong capital presently in excess of N30billion and deposit base of over N150billion, running on a branch network of 215 spread over Nigeria; a product of nine consolidated Banks, namely: First Interstate, Intercity, Pacific, Bank of the North, Tropical Commercial, Centrepoint, Societe Bancaire and NNB International Bank Plc.


The Bank's business philosophy is to exceed the service delivery expectations of our customers. To this end, we have invested heavily on a robust technology package that runs on the latest Oracle platform (Oracle 10g) called BANKS. Unity Bank is one of the few banks in Africa using the latest version of BANKS. This on-line, real-time software enables our customers to transact all forms of banking business from any of our 215 locations spread across Nigeria.


Major Shareholder (> 5% Holdings)

Name Country Shares % Holding Website

Rivers State Government Nigeria 1,207,936,506 7.57% www.riversstate.gov.ng

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/unitybank-how-this-stock-advanced-by-25.html

Having found some form of stability around the $60/bbl level for a few months, global oil prices seem to be back under pressure with Brent trading around the $50/bbl region – a 57% decline from its June 2014 high of $115/bbl.

With the significant loan exposure of Nigerian banks to the oil and gas sector (average of 25% of total loan portfolio - as at H1’15), the risk of absolute default or any form of restructuring remains a threat to banks’ performance as we believe the full impact might trickle down in bits due to the possible lag time between economic difficulty and default.

Hence, the question on everyone’s mind is “can banks weather this storm?” The not easily forgotten experience of the 2008/2009 crisis further compounds investors’ anxiety. Whilst we believe that the scenarios are somewhat similar to the past oil price crash, analysts at Vetiva Capital Management Limited in Victoria Island are of the opinion that banks are better prepared to manage the situation due to relatively stronger risk management frameworks and increased regulatory awareness.

Source: http://www.ebtsconsults.com/2015/10/analyst-opinion-challenges-are-real.html

it is quite sardonic........the truth of the matter is that we need to get back to the drawing board......CHARITY THEY SAY BEGINS AT HOME......parents should try to make out time for their wards, they should try as much as possible to be abreast with the daily activities of their wards......religious institutions can come in and then the government. Hopefully thing would work out better......MAY GOD SAVE THIS GENERATION....