18 states where Atiku may lose this election


Atiku Abubakar began running for president 30 years ago and hasn’t stopped since. This time, he’s managed to persuade most of his party’s top people that he should again be backed for the job – even though he’s a northern Muslim and another northern Muslim has just ruled the country for eight years. The former vice president’s chances of winning the election are ironically better than they were the last time because his archrival Buhari is now off the ballot. Still, this 2023 election should be competitive. These are the 18 states where he may lose.

Borno
The APC easily won this northeastern state during the 2019 presidential election. Voters live in relative peace even though the Boko Haram crisis persists, and many attribute this improvement to the APC government. Atiku will need something extraordinary to win in the home state of the ruling party’s vice-presidential candidate.

Ekiti
The PDP’s loss in last year’s gubernatorial election in this state indicates that it cannot beat the APC here next month. The APC comfortably won the presidential election here in 2019. This time, the PDP’s own top leader in the state even backs the ruling party.

Ogun
Like Ekiti, Ogun is a state in the southwest controlled by the APC and the ruling party solidly won here last time. It used to be easy territory for the PDP, but the equation has changed since the APC was formed in 2013.

Zamfara
This one is easy territory for the ruling party. It is a core Muslim state in the northwest where President Buhari is king. Tinubu will be able to ride on that to a large win.

Katsina
There are rumblings on the ground because civil servants in the state have been going without pay, but it won’t matter a lot. This is Buhari’s home state and Atiku virtually has no chance of winning there.

Oyo
The PDP’s Atiku barely won this southwestern state in 2019. It could have gone either way – the margin was less than a 1% point. Now, the state governor is one of five PDP state governors who have been threatening to work against their own party’s candidate. This division may be costly for Atiku.

Kaduna
It’s going to be pretty straightforward here. The largely Muslim north of the state will outvote the mainly Christian south of the state in favor of the ruling party. Atiku only managed 39% of the votes here in the last election.

Bauchi
Atiku’s PDP somehow won the state gubernatorial election in 2019. This was a week after he’d been resoundingly beaten in the same state during the presidential election. Atiku will probably lose there again this 2023, but his archrival Buhari won’t be on the ballot and so he should be able to compete more closely.

Nasarawa
The last two presidential elections were very close in Nasarawa. However, the ruling party won this state in the central north both times and presently controls the state. The trend may continue next month.

Lagos
The APC’s Tinubu rules Lagos with a strong fist. He was the state governor from 1999 to 2007 and has handpicked successive governors ever since. But the 2019 presidential election suggests he’s no longer as powerful as he thinks. He struggled to deliver a large win for Buhari, who expected to get more than the 53% that he got considering Tinubu’s weight. Even so, there’s little doubt that Tinubu will win in Lagos. Further, Peter Obi of the LP should earn a decent share of the opposition support with some slice into Atiku’s 2019 votes.

Kwara
The PDP always won this state in the central north until the APC opposition coalition was formed. The PDP has since lost two consecutive presidential elections there. As in Kaduna, the electorate is split along religious lines and the ruling APC will probably win the majority Muslim votes.

Kogi
Kogi is a swing state, but the ruling party slightly has the upper hand because it’s in charge here. The party got 55% of votes in this state in the central north last time. A more competitive contest should be expected next month.

Yobe
Atiku scraped out a mere 9% of the votes in Yobe last time. Note that this state is in his home region: the northeast. But the majority ethnic group in Yobe is Kanuri – the same as the APC’s current vice-presidential candidate. The ruling party will easily win the state.

Jigawa
Jigawa is staunchly for the APC and Buhari. Every single member of the state parliament is from the ruling party. Atiku’s best aim here will probably be to squeeze out 25% of the votes – keeping in mind the constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Kebbi
Voters in Kebbi are mostly civil servants, farmers or herders – all largely reliant on the government and the ruling party. Buhari is the ethnic and religious leader of the remote northwestern state. Atiku will look elsewhere for victories.

Kano
A lot of people in Kano believe the PDP was robbed when the ruling party violently forced a rerun of the gubernatorial election in 2019. The APC state governor is despised and the ruling party unpopular, but this state at the heart of the northwest is too important for the party to lose. It’s the most populous state in the country and produced the largest number of votes by any state in the 2019 presidential election. The party will try to win here by all means.

Niger
The count in this northern state was 72% for the ruling party last time – mainly because Buhari was on the ballot. This contest should be more competitive this 2023, but Atiku will still be prepared for a loss.

Gombe
The APC holds around 85% of seats in the state parliament. It was an easy win for the ruling party in the 2019 presidential election. This northeastern state should go to the party again next time.

Read also: 19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541614/19-states-where-tinubu-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election


Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.

Osun
The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.

Imo
Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Anambra
The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.

Plateau
Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north.
This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.

Enugu
The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.

Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.

Taraba
Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.

Sokoto
The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.

Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.

Rivers
Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.

Delta
The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.

Abuja
The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.

Ondo
Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.

Cross River
[/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.

[b]Adamawa
Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.

Akwa Ibom
[/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.

[b]Edo
The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.

Bayelsa
Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.

Abia
The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.

President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.

Ebonyi
Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.

Read also: 18 states where Atiku may lose this election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541627/18-states-where-atiku-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

In 2015, I produced a documentary about Nigeria's history from a youth perspective. It featured young people from around the country who shared their own viewpoints concerning key events in our history.