Mpeace:
It is not annualised. Calculate from the profit after tax and see.

Coolcash1:


This one loud o....Hope they repeat same feat in Q2.

vacanci:


So you think the higher the interest rate the better it is for the banks? So if interest rate for example jumps to 50%, you expect business men to go after loans at such rate? What happens to the cry that higher interest rate is hurting businesses. Apart from turning away borrowers, a high rate can amount to many defaults on loans.

You keep mentioning revaluation as if what we have now has not changed to devaluation. Most banks have USD bought at over 1500 too

Anyways when the Q1 report is out, let's see what it is but again let's compare it to previous quarter and not with Q1 2023. That's how we will know what's up

vacanci:


you made it sound like we have super banks that do not suffer loss. For your information, all holders of dollars from February this year are at a loss presently.
you also made it sound like the banks have converted all their dollars to naira and are heavily invested in Treasury Bills with those monies.

when you say in terms of forex revaluation, it makes no difference because it was done less than N1000. let me ask you this. if the rate stabilizes like this for the rest of the year, is that a forex gain for the banks? or are you assuming that last year's dollar whose gain had been captured in their books will now be brought into this year and viewed as a revaluation gain again?

me i am just a lay man and i dont understand much but if i may say something, i think the banks will not enjoy what is to happen in the next one year. maybe after that, they will stabilize. i am in alignment with ositadima1

ositadima1:


The second part of your post is interesting. Though I don't understand the meaning of "pumping" yet, it is often mentioned here.

As for the first part, I have already considered that the trading gains and other operating income may be used to generate income. That is why I only deducted 300 billion from the total 808 billion (566.9 billion in "trading gains" and 242.5 billion in "other operating income".

ositadima1:
I did a quick back-of-the-envelope analysis based on worse-case scenarios:

In 2023, Zenith made a Profit After Tax (PAT) of 679 billion Naira at 21.5 Earnings Per Share (EPS), with an outstanding share count (OS) of 31 billion.

Checking the 2023 statement of profit and loss on page 40, I found these lines questionable: "Trading gains" at 566.9 billion Naira and "Other operating income" at 242.5 billion Naira, both explained in more detail in Notes 10 and 11 respectively. These two lines have significantly increased from the 2022 figures, and they are both tied to the Naira devaluation. As a result, I can reasonably assume that the 2024 figures may not be as high if the Naira retraces or maintains its current stability.

So, I have discounted for the 2024 figures, and if all goes well, I estimate the 2024 PAT to be around 379 billion Naira. (Note that "Interest and similar income" more than doubled from the previous year, but I have chosen to leave it as is, as I expect the reversion to the mean to be canceled out by growth.)

If the additional OS reaches 12 billion (which I believe will be needed to raise an additional 300 billion Naira at 25 Naira per share), then the 2024 EPS would drop to 8.6. If they add 25 billion new shares instead, the EPS would drop to 6.6. If they do nothing, I expect the EPS to settle at 12.

In conclusion, in all scenarios, and with things going normally, they should be able to maintain the 4 Naira dividend (4.5 to 5 Naira is even more possible), irrespective of the number of additional shares added.

My concern is what will happen in the meantime - will the share price reach 25 Naira? If so, would it be better to exit the investment and re-enter at a better time, even if it means forgoing the 4 Naira dividend?

Oga Agba, I need your input.

chillykelly86:


I think it boils down to GTB's historical superior efficiency. Such ratios as RoA and RoE come to mind.

#Credits for the attached tabular comparisons of Access, GTB and Zenith goes to @Rufyb on X.

Camoready:
AGM Date for UBA?

Mpeace:
The market should be careful oh. Bankinhlg stocks might not maintain the same level of profit/gains.

But CBN no try shall. Them for just allow banks pay us dividends anyhow they feel. 21naira eps for pay like 5naira dividend or more.

Babynerd:



As in, I'm still shocked that l saw UBA hovering a little above N8 last year.

gbengafaro1986:
UBA Result out

final Div N2.30

Wiseadebiye:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40877_ZENITH_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2024.pdf

Final Dividend: N3.50k


https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40874_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2024.pdf

Final Dividend: N2.70

Wiseadebiye:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40877_ZENITH_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2024.pdf

Final Dividend: N3.50k


https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40874_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2024.pdf

Final Dividend: N2.70

essentialone:
Flash🛎: The first move was to relocate the Banking Supervisory Dept of the CBN from Abuja where there’s not one commercial bank headquarters to Lagos where all commercial banks have their headquarters.

Then, the recapitalisation order where no bank is allowed to divert its profit to capital base and that will be properly monitored by the Banking Supervisory Dept of the Central Bank which is now located in the same Lagos where the banks’ headquarters are domiciled.

These banks will as from Tuesday have to strategise on how to meet up with this requirement. The truth of the matter is that dollars kept by their big owners will have to be brought out to raise the capital base. They will have to look for foreign investors too and since backlog of valid forex have been settled, they’ll be eager to bring their dollars to Nigeria.

The President knew that he'd request for a massive recapitalization before he cleared all outstanding valid forex backlog.

But the banks’ minimum capital is not in dollar so they will have to convert their dollars to naira if the banks want to remain in business. I have told us several times that this war to save our currency is multidimensional but only a few agreed with me.

I do not think that the cards to checkmate forex banditry are all yet laid on the table. This President is a money person, he’s a financial engineer and he’s well grounded. Those who think that it’s game as usual should start to have a rethink if they don’t want to go bankrupt due to their inherent greed.

Ojoboak:
JOKES OF THE DAY
Be serious with your investment, but relax, smile, and adjust to situations you can’t control. Olu Cares! ❤️

COPIED......
*CBN* : You cant pay out dividends from your retained earnings. *Banks* : But why not sir? *CBN* : Because you made those earnings from Revaluation of Currency and from (il)legitimate Banking Business. *Banks* : But sir you audit our books and approve all our earnings and dividends before we announce them. *CBN* : Sharap! Just go and raise fresh capital from your investors; they have money. *Banks* : But sir, our investors need return on their capital and evaluate their investments based on ROE and they always add retained earnings to the "E" in ROE. Which means they will likely look elsewhere for alternative investment opportunities with better ROE. *CBN* : So you want to teach me my job ehn? My friend go and raise fresh capital! I dont care where you get it from! *Banks* : Ok sir. Can we pay 100% of our retained earnings as dividends then? So that our investors can be happy and have enough liquidity to invest BACK in us the money we just gave to them? *CBN* : You must be silly!! Banks: Sorry sir. *CBN* : In addition you have one month to consult investment Banks, advisors, key shareholders and other stakeholders and submit a detailed plan of how you intend to meet this capital requirement! *Banks* : Yes sir! *CBN* : You have 2 years from now to comply with the guideline. *Banks* : But sir, I can comply in one week if I can just use the money I have saved over the last 30 years to do so🤷🏿‍♂️. *CBN* : Get out of my office NOW!
😜

#copied#
Happy Holidays Everyone!

onegentleguy:


I was smiling reading this.
Not for a lack of logic and reasonableness in your post, but because it would seem that you have assumed the Nigerian state to be an ideal one.

I understand you completely. But just know that this country can be a painfully funny place.
This is why I call it a portfolio country... where one needs to consistently apply wisdom and discernment by looking to "bet for or against the system" to grow.
Ideally, this should not have been the way to go but there are just too many structural deficiencies here, especially from the fiscal end.

Nigeria is nothing but a portfolio country and it needs you to FOCUS more on your portfolio to benefit from it!
We just need to seek to take advantage of the opportunities that this recap exerc[b][/b]ise would present/create.



[/color][color=#990000][color=#000099][/color]


0022965843[b][/b][/b][b][b][/b][0022965843][/b]0022965843

I have looked at your argument for and against the increase capital base vis a vis exclusion of shareholders fund. In my own assessment I think it would have been better to increase the threshold and allow but the share capital and retain fund be part of the capital base. However central bank know what they want to achieve, every other discussion is academic discuss.[url][/url]
I believe the main reason for all of us to be in the stock market is to create or increase value. This recapitalization exercise present such opportunity. Shine your eyes and make your money.

It is well

STNWAUME:


Sir OGG what's your take on Cadbury?

onegentleguy:


On the part in bold, broadly yes.

But there's also plan B.

A few banks may decide to go the route of a bonus issue, which is another means of issuing share capital and increasing their paid-up/paid-in capital, instead of a rights issue.
There's also a possibility that some banks might decide on both a plan A and B (ref: rights issue and bonus issue)

The way to guage the probability that a bank could do a plan B (either alone or coupled with a plan A) would be to look at the anatomy of her SCS and juxtapose it with her SPA and FF/OS
For instance, FCMB could decide to do a bonus issue. (note the use of the term [i]"could")

There was a reason I initially recommended STERLING BANK @ N1.4+ and still went ahead to include it in my 1st outline/recommendations and investment guide (not series 2) @ N3+ after it had already achieved a massive 126% CGY.
Well, Mr STERLING would later rally to N7+ printing an astronomical 415% and 110% CGY from the initial entry peg of N1.4+ and N3.4 respectively.
Aside fundamentals and technicals, the decision to adopt a holding coy structure was going to be a favourable one for the bank.
There was also a reason I fell in love with GTCO @ N17+ prior to that time.
Recall I kept screaming that the bank was a buy at the time but perhaps some persons were waiting for the price to drop to 80k.

Saying that I also like JAIZ BANK, another asset that was recommended in the 1st outline @ N1.4--1.5, should already be taken for granted.
Congratulations to all those who sold @ N4 booking an impressive 185% CGY.
...I still like JAIZ BANK! (gave reasons and clue in many of my previous post) and a few other banking names.

But of course, I also love a few other asset names!

For those who've got the outline/recommendations and investment guide--Series 2, hang in there and be happy to hold. Some are already a bit up and rallying... others will follow suit in time!

🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
Good and excellent analysis. I love this analysis.🌹❤️🙏.
What else can I say. I would prefer to be in the Almighty 5 (fugaz) my reasons are, if this banks are prevented from using their shareholders fund and retain earnings to beef up their capital base what else can they do? In the presence of Hugh amount of shareholders fund they can use their retain earnings to pump up their prices and come for fund raising at very high price to reduce the dilutive effects of issuing out much shares. I would also among all the 5 fugaz banks pinched my tent with first bank who has a new sheriff that knows how to play the game. This is going to be an interesting time for the banking stocks. I wouldn't be surprised to see GTB selling above N60 in a very short time.
Please this is not an advice to enter any stock do your due diligence before entering any stock.

It is well

Penboy:


They won't.

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40350_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2024.pdf

NB: Major loss

megawealth01:
TRANSCORP and magic

locodemy:


Weldone bro.Get ready to buy at the next support which will likely be higher than the 90kobo it traded for months before this result came out.

locodemy:


You might be disappointed going forward.

locodemy:


The figure released yesterday should keep the stock at 1.20.
Sentimental news and more acquisitions will do the magic of super fly

Biafran4life:
With this result, zenith is not heading south any time soon .It will go north and balance around #25

Ojoboak:


Today 17th March, 2021. Closure of register 18th March, 2021. AGM 16th June, 2021. Payment 18th June, 2021.

aremso:


No certainty in this game but am convinced it will go south.

onegentleguy:


YES there are CLEAR RED FLAGS in DIAMOND BANK !!
Let me try and summarize a few;
-As at H1, Net profit fell by a whooping 70% from approx 5.61B to 2.45B, and would've been more, but for the slide in their tax expense. PBT actually droped from 9.52B to 2.92B, while a gap up in discontinued operations helped push down PAT by 77% from 8.02B to approx 1.8B
-Drop in net Interest Income with a ballooning increase in their expense line (near 27% increament as at H1)
Infact, there was a drop in virtually all core income lines but with a corresponding increase in all cost and expense line !!
Suffice to say that on a TTM, key indices like Operating margin, Net margin, EPS, ROE, ROA and FCF are all printing in the negative. ...this is NOT a good sign !!

That said, I however like the fact that a key measure of SOLVENCY like D/E, and that of VALUATION like P/BV still shows that the company is NOT likely to be 'another sky' and that there is still a good FUNDATION to improve on. ...If only the management of DIAMOND can be open, purposeful and efficient.

My line of action?
If I were in DIAMOND, I would've exited before now.
I recall I once advised folks to immediately sell off their holding in the coy when I stated here that STERLING BANK will likely displace DIAMOND from among the 3 musketeers.
My advise?
Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

NOTE: Due diligence should ALWAYS be ur 1st priority.

onegentleguy:
Someone was categorizing WEMA in the class of SKYE BANK.
Hear this pls:
There's no doubt about WEMA been better. ...they were NEVER in the same class !!
WEMA is'nt SKYE, so it's best to WEIGH things the way they ought to be. ...no point going off the tangent. It doesn't help anyone. It's always best to be FACTUAL.
With SKYE BANK it was ALWAYS clear that there were FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES with the coy even before the CBN took over the bank in 2016.
Those who bought into it should've known that it ought to be strictly a short play. (Strictly a tradable security)
Moreso, when there was NO financial Nos to make an informed decision.
Personally I bought into the bank @ 0.53 to 0.55k and sold just before it hit its 52 weeks high of N1.61... making a near 200% on ROI. I recall carrying a lot of folks along who also made so much gains then. However, my romance with SKYE was purely an INFORMATIVE play.

But with WEMA there are CLEAR PARALLELS !! The bank does not owe any result. The coy has made great improvements from were they used to be, to where they need to be. ...there's a fine progress in growth trajectory. Its a great coy to hold in ones portfolio. Especially if ur also a growth investor. ...this is a FACT !! Nos don't LIE.
I'll urge folks to thoroughly peruse through their YE 2017, Q1 and Q2 2018 results.

People need to understand how to play along with some of these 'melodies within the NSE room'
Around the globe, INVESTING IS RISK. ...it's a core part of what defines it. ...though risk-adjusted ceilings differ in different countries. Nigeria will always be what it is... full of high RISK PREMIUM.
But like anywhere else in the world, it's our duty to LEARN THE ACT of knowing how to MITIGATE or REDUCE such risk as an INVESTOR. ...for therein lies ur WEAPON of protection !!

The KEY lies herein:
"There are basically 2 great days in a person's life;
The day u were born, and the day u discover why u were born.
In the Stock market, that 'discovery' is tantamount to knowing why u are where u are, and having a sound reason for been there.
...for if u do not know why u are in the market, then u probably won't know why u should succeed in it."
~Sinclair

"In the stock market, SUCCESS is 1% what u have and 99% what u are.
...It's the product of what happens when u can continuously apply INSIGHT with running the race to EXCEL without let down."
~Sinclair

Mpeace:
If the market does not react positively when budget is finally passed, be sure that the problem is no longer a physical one.

RabbiDoracle:


"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."


~ Warren Buffett

RabbiDoracle:


"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."
Great quote. I know it might be leaking but I will wait for the next general bull to vamose . At that time every dead stock temporally resurrect.Thank God Diamond bank is sick but still alive.

~ Warren Buffett