Gates, Windows and Exits.

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

“Now I understand why he called it Microsoft”- An African American Lady

Someone told me this interesting story a few years back which I cannot confirm its veracity. It was several decades ago that Bill Gates met this young beautiful African American and immediately fell in love with her. They speak for few moments and Bill invited her to a date. The young woman was excited to meet Bill and was particularly enamored by his intelligence. She would want the date to happen yesterday. To her shock, Bill proposed that the date held in a week’s time. Well, what could she do? She agreed and on the set date, she had a very good time with Bill. Fast forward to the day that the lady was visiting Bill Gate’s house for the first time. She was happy with the level of organisation and after meals, they retired to the bedroom. Not too long after, the lady stormed out of the bedroom looking very disappointed. She was speaking to no one in particular, but was heard saying, “now, I understand why he named it Microsoft”. That was obviously years before Bill met Melinda.

The Bill and Melinda Gates divorce saga is the dream of comedians and satirists. In the world of divorce, nothing can top this unless maybe when it involves the Royal House of Windsor. They haven’t disappointed as they have walked all over the matter lampooning poor Bill and Melinda from all angles. It is the price of fame and fortune and I believe that they knew from day one that it goes with the territory.

William Henry Gates III was born on October 28, 1955 in Seattle, Washington. As a child, he started showing signs of a genius such that he wrote his first software program at the age of 13, when he was in Preparatory School. He was so brilliant that he provided technology solutions for his school even at that tender age. He became a National Merit Scholar and graduated from high school in 1973. He emerged with almost a perfect score in Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) garnering 1590 out of the possible 1600 marks and was expectedly admitted into Harvard University same year. Two years later, Gates voluntarily dropped out from Harvard to pursue his dream of setting up a technology business. While at Harvard, he met and became friends with another equally brilliant student, Steve Ballmer. As Bill left Harvard, Steve continued and graduated Magna Cum Laude (Second Class Honours, Upper Division). As fate would have it, Steve was to join Microsoft years later and actually succeeded Bill Gates as CEO in the year 2000.

Bill Gates founded Microsoft with his school friend, Paul Allen in 1975 in New Mexico, United States. He is reputed to be one of the major brains behind the microcomputer revolution of the century. He led Microsoft to become the largest software company in the world and stepped down as CEO in 2000, even though he remained as Chairman until 2014. He, however, chose to support the company by assuming the role of technology adviser to the company and completely retired from Microsoft in March 2020 to pursue his new interest in philanthropy on the platform of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Amongst his several other inventions, one of his most successful was the Windows. It was first released in 1985 as a graphic user interface software solution. He subsequently released the earth-shaking Windows 95, a decade later making Microsoft the undisputed leader in the field of personal computing. Many other versions and improvements were made to Windows over time, the latest being Windows 10, released in 2020. With his success in business came a lot of wealth and fame. For years now, he has been listed as one of the wealthiest people in the world. His net worth is put at over $145b. Besides Microsoft, he was a major investor in Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway where he sat on the board until 2014, amongst a lot of other investments. His leadership style is said to be combative, and he is also said to have a caustic tongue, particularly with non-performers.

Melinda Ann Gates, nee French, was born on August 15, 1964 in Dallas Texas. Like Bill, she was a very brilliant student. At age 14, she had already been introduced to computing by her father. She was on top of her class at St. Monica Catholic School and was best graduating student and Valedictorian in her high school at Ursuline Academy, Dallas in 1982. She proceeded to Duke University from where she graduated with Honours in Computer Science and Economics in 1986. A year later, she received an MBA from the same University. She took a job as a mathematics and computer engineering teacher from where she joined Microsoft as a Marketing Manager in 1987. That same year, she started dating her CEO, Bill Gates after meeting at a fair in New York. They got married in 1994 and two years later, she left Microsoft to focus on family. As if to give credence to the story of the African American lady cited above, after the overtures by Bill, he had proposed a dinner date two weeks in advance. The shocked Melinda declined the offer and requested that he asked her closer to the time! This pointed to how full Bill Gates’ diary had always been. Their marriage is blessed with three children, Jennifer, 25; Rory, 21; and Phoebe, 18.

In the year 2000, they set up what is known today as the largest charity outfit in the world, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Foundation has spent over $50b in philanthropic work and has assets valued at about $35b. It must be noted that while it is said that the charity side of the Gates is Melinda’s passion while the ‘techy’ side is Bill’s passion, Bill had another Foundation that was set up in 1994 which was rolled into the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Foundation’s goal initially was to provide laptops to every classroom and support education around the world. Subsequently, other areas like climate change, global health and development, became major areas of focus for the Foundation. The Foundation has made a strong impact in the eradication of communicable diseases around the world and supported access to vaccines to the poor in Africa and elsewhere. One of its major goals is to provide 120m women and girls, particularly in poor nations with contraceptive services. Bill Gates believes strongly in population control and this has attracted criticisms from pundits who have associated him with all sorts of conspiracy theories, particularly with the outbreak of Covid-19. In 2010, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet set up “The Giving Pledge” where they and other billionaires pledge to give out no less than 50% of their wealth to charity. At the last count, more than 170 billionaires around the world have signed up to the pledge.

On Monday, May 3, 2021, the world woke up to a shocking divorce announcement from this otherwise wonderful couple. I have, in the past, heard people reference Bill and Melinda Gates as the ideal couple and role model. In the announcement, they claimed that they no longer believed they could grow together as a couple in the next phase of their lives. “After a great deal of thought and a lot of work on our relationship, we have made the decision to end our marriage. Over the last 27years, we have raised three incredible children and built a Foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives”. What could have gone wrong with this marriage after such a long time with three grown up children? Many theories are being propounded as their joint statement left a lot of gaps.

Ordinarily, divorces and break up of marriages are a daily occurrence in the Western world and should not generate the kind of interest that the Gates are generating. However, because of their position and what they represent, the dust raised by this separation and eventual divorce would not settle very soon. Some other divorces that had attracted this kind of interest included those of Prince Charles of England decades ago, and of Jeff Bezos and Mackenzie Scott who packed up their marriage after 25 years and four children. This divorce ended up with a 4% stake in Amazon, amounting to over $38b as divorce settlement. Mackenzie in return said she was giving up 50% of the wealth through ‘The Giving Pledge’ to charity.

As the French would say, ‘Cherchez la femme’ – Always look for the woman! Somehow, there is always the story of another woman in the picture. In the case of Jeff Bezos, a certain Lauren Sanchez was alleged to be having an affair with the billionaire which contributed to the crash of the marriage. Then enter the Tesla wizard Elon Musk, who has been divorced 3 times, twice from Justin who had 5 children for him. The other one Riley received a tidy $20m settlement from Musk. Another shocking divorce was that of the 45th Vice President of the Unites States, the urbane Al Gore and his wife Tipper who separated after 40 years of marriage with 4 children.

Sequel to the Bill and Melinda Gates divorce announcement, nothing prepared the world for this separation. They seemed to have deceived everyone in their public pronouncements, expressing deep love for each other and demonstrating how they complemented each other. In Bill’s own words, “some people see Melinda as the heart of our Foundation, the emotional core, but as she knows, I’m more emotional than people realise, I know she’s more analytical than people realise. When I get really enthusiastic about something, I count on her to make sure I’m being realistic. She helps me understand when I can push our teams harder and when I need to ease off. On her own part, Melinda had these to say “Bill is very open-minded which isn’t necessarily how people perceive him. I love Bill because he has a kind heart, listens to other people, and lets himself be moved by what they say. When I tell a story about what I have seen, he feels it. He might ask me to gather some data for good measure, but he doesn’t doubt the reality of my experiences or the soundness of my judgement.” These statements were made barely three years ago. Just last year, Bill posted a message on his Instagram to the effect that he couldn’t ask for a better partner on this journey of life and on their 26th wedding anniversary, Melinda had posted “I’m still marveling at just how full a heart can get. Happy anniversary to the man who keeps me dancing through life.”

One theory is that the lockdown following the pandemic, which had most people holed up in their homes could have been responsible for this breakup. The veracity of this claim is not farfetched as a lot of marriages were reported to have hit the rocks owing to the long stay of couples together as against what it was in the past. Couples who hardly had time to stay at home suddenly had time in their hands and things that were hitherto ignored or were not observable assumed prominence. This is even truer for someone like Bill who had worked round the clock for several decades and only took a retirement just around the outbreak of the pandemic. Some theorists had naturally blamed the strange woman, in this case, Ann Winblad. The story had surfaced in the media that Bill got Melinda’s consent to spend long weekends every year with his ex-girlfriend Ms. Winblad, 70, before they got married. This arrangement as much as it sounds interesting doesn’t look like a plausible reason for the breakup as it had been in place for 27years without any issues. The question is, why should it be an issue now?

Some people have argued that the foundation of the relationship was faulty in the first place. The argument is that Melinda came to work at Microsoft and that it was fundamentally flawed for the CEO to begin to chase around his staff or for the staff to begin to chase around her CEO. While this argument is in the realm of morality, Melinda’s mum was one of those who stood against the relationship in the early stages and advised her daughter to avoid the office romance. They still went ahead, and the rest is now history. May be there is something to learn here.

Many analysts have pointed at money as being central to this divorce. I believe that why this divorce made the kind of headline it did, is the issue of wealth and of course, its impact on those who have come to see the couple as a role model. Divorce lawyers are always waiting in the wings to sign on high profile cases like this. There are already reports that shortly after the announcement Melinda earned some $2billion dollars from the transfer of some stocks to her. Again, because there were no pre-nuptial agreements in place, Melinda was going to get a hefty sum in divorce settlements. May be the lady was bidding her time being a good mathematician, calculating the best time to strike, that being when the children had grown up, when the wealth had gotten to its peak and when her ‘second hand’ value had peaked!

Whatever be the real reason behind this exit from the mansion of marriage, it has left a very bitter taste in the mouth and it is an example of how not to be a role model. Thousands of people who had been hitherto inspired by this couple are shocked. The very impressive work they had been doing at the Foundation would suffer. It is a lesson that money is not all that matters in a relationship. If it were so, Prince Charles, Al Gore, Elon Musk, and certainly Bill Gates would have had different stories to tell.

Having said all these, we will still manage to wish Bill and Melinda luck in the new choices they have made.

John Magufuli: Against the “Magas” and The "Fools"

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI.

‘A genuine leader is not a searcher for consensus, but a moulder of consensus’ – Martin Luther King Jnr.

‘The art of leadership is saying no, not yes. It is very easy to say yes.’ – Tony Blair

Earlier in the week, someone sent me a video of a news item about the ministers and senior government officials of Uganda sleeping at a major conference where the President of the country, Yoweri Museveni, was giving an important address. The list of the sleeping officials was shockingly long and included The Vice President, the Prime Minister and his Deputy, and the Finance Minister. In the telling video, the reporter interviewed a young man who insisted that, “had the President not been the one delivering the speech, he would have been sleeping too”. According to him,“the same sleeping group is the one the President enjoys working with; they are all tired, right from the President, the Vice President etc., those are grandfathers who should, for the few hours that they are awake, be playing with their grandchildren” the commentator concluded.

Museveni, 77, came into power in 1986 after he led a rebellion that first toppled Idi Amin in 1979 and then Milton Obote in 1985. He has managed to hold on to power these past 35 years by tampering with the enshrined constitutional term limit in 2005 and then Presidential age limit in 2017. On January 16, 2021, he was ‘returned’ for the 6th term running, aftera controversial election widely believed to have been manipulated. Inevitably, the country continues to wallow in poverty and underdevelopment while Museveni perpetuates himself in power. This is similar to the stories we hear in many African countries run by incompetent and gerontocratic rulers who manage to seize and hold on topower in perpetuity.

For a change in this typical African story of despair, some cheering news came from the East African country, Tanzania, which incidentally, shares border with Uganda and Kenya. One of the landmarks of Tanzania is Mount Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa. At 947,303sq km, it is slightly larger than Nigeria with an estimated population of 56m people, one quarter the population of Nigeria. It has a nominal GDP size of about $66b with a per capita GDP of $1105. For comparison, Nigeria’s GDP size is estimated at $443b and GDP per capita is about $2150. From independence in1961, Tanzania, just like many African countries, has had its fair share of challenges.Her first President,Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, was one of the foremost African nationalists who ruled the country from 1962 to 1985. After his regime, a constitutional term limit of two terms of 5 years, each was introduced. In October 2015, President John Pombe Magufuli was sworn in as the 5th President of Tanzania at the age of 55.In 2020, he was re-elected for his 2nd term. Sadly, by March 17, 2021, President Magufuli succumbed to the cold hands of death.

The enigmatic and unassuming leader was a subject of numerous categorizations while alive and at his death, there were wide ranging comments on the way he led the country. Some of the headline stories following his demise, particularly those of the foreign media blamed his passing on his denial of,or his playing down the existence and dangers of the Covid 19 virus.Some others saw him as a global hero who led from his heart and without airs or caprice. Some referred to him as a ‘Bulldozer’ while some others have called him a petty dictator. It must be pointed out that the controversy and criticisms of John Magufuli had been on even while he was alive. Praises for him were even louder than the affronts of his critics.It is important to note that the ‘Bulldozer’ nickname preceded his election as President. It was a name he acquired during his tenure as the Tanzanian Minister of Works, between 2005 and 2015, when he was reportedly so effective, even if ruthless, in deploying infrastructure to the country. Subsequently, the negative connotation of the name was promoted in his presidency when he was alleged to have this time, muscled opposition, free press and free speech.None of these can diminish the fact that he lived and died as another Tanzanian hero and the beloved of his people. His funeral was a major national event and there was the touching outpouring of love during the event. Several citizens removed their clothes and laid them on the road of the cortege, in a show of gratitude and adulation that could rival those that accompanied the scenes of Caesar’s returning to ancient Rome in triumph.Indeed, apart from the masses, who lined up the streets in their numbers, many African presidents and eminent personalities descended on Dar El Salam, to give Magufuli, a deserved heroic burial on Friday March 26, 2021.

Magufuli clearly demonstrated that any serious leader can achieve a lot for his people within the short period of 4 to 5 years. While second term of office is provided for in most national constitutions, just like life itself, it is never assured. Unfortunately, even some of those African leaders that attended his funeral would leave the event determined that second term and, in some cases, even third term, should be guaranteed, as contained in the despicable political rule book they themselves write and read. I am of the firm belief that what one cannot do in a few years,he is unlikely to do in many years.Magufuli was one, in the true tradition of Nyerere, who seemed to know that even if he got a second term, completing it was not guaranteed.He encountered a lot of challenges when he took over in 2015. He inherited a very corrupt system, where, for instance,the phenomenon of ghost workers was the hallmark of the nation’s civil service. This vice was compounded by laxity, absenteeism and general inefficiency in the public sector. Public spending was conducted with reckless abandon and there was very little adherence to laid down procedures. Just like some of us here in Nigeria have been screaming ourselves hoarse on the cost of governance in our country, President Magufuli confronted wasteful expenditure culture of the civil service, head on. The first casualty of his reform programme was the Independence Day celebration budget. Once he took over, he cancelled the entire celebration and directed that the funds thus saved be channeled into the rehabilitation of the Ubungo highway. This was an area of need as it had to do with major access into the city of Dar Es Salaam.

Still in his first year in office, he stopped government officials from foreign trips except where those were absolutely necessary, in such cases, his prior approval must be secured. In one year, the Tanzanian government, saved $430m from the travel budget alone. He channeled the savings into free education and the remuneration of teachers and education workers. The immediate result was a massive increase in school enrolment, which was hitherto going down. My take is that he was one of the few African leaders, who was not only educated to the highest level, but understood the importance of quality education in the life of an individual and the nation.

President Magufuli understood the way the economy worked and used that knowledge to the full benefit of his government and people. He understood that most of the lofty ideas he had needed to be financed. He also knew that the base of the Tanzanian economy was too small to generate enough revenue to achieve those dreams. Of course, he could have gone to borrow from international lenders, just like many of his contemporaries. He chose instead to do something about the country’s tax base, in order to increase internal revenue generation capacity. He ensured that he created the enabling environment for businesses to expand and grow while the government collected all that was due it. He had an eye on the agreed cap on debt to GDP ratio of 40%. He knew that to maintain this cap and not resort to borrowing, he had to fund all the development projects and government expenditure from internally generated revenue.

As if he anticipated the pandemic which he is now being accused of being a skeptic, he reasoned that while not discouraging tourism, the economy needed to have a strong productive base for growth and local consumption. He believed, based on information available to him, that the mineral sector, which contributed about 4% of GDP could do a lot better, but for the corruption endemic in the sector. He made a few personnel changes and instituted an enquiry into some of the big mining companies who were alleged to be involved in tax fraud. One of those companies was made to pay back about $300m to government coffers, an amount generated by under-declared government funds spanning several years.

John Magufuli followed up the war against fraud with massive reforms in the mineral sector. These included increase in royalties, enactment of a local content legislation of at the minimum 20% and government minority participation in ownership of mining companies.His engagement with Multinational Corporations showed him as a leader with courage and vision. Prior to his time, foreign companies were revered, and no one dared touch them. He forced renegotiation or outright cancellation of contracts and deals that were not in the interest of Tanzania. He cancelled what he called “exploitative and awkward” contracts with the Chinese. This won him a lot of accolades and popularity leading to the twitter hashtag #WhatWouldMagufulido? He massively took on the infrastructural development of the country and just before his death, he awarded a contract for the construction of a 341km standard gauge railway from the town of Mwanza on Lake Victoria to Isaka, a town in the Southern part of the country. It is also to his credit that huge investments were made in the Public bus mass transit system in Dar EsSalaam in addition to rural electrification projects that are now littered in different parts of the country.

There is no doubt that in economic terms, Tanzania is a poor country, however, the determined effort of Magufuli and his team saw the economy improve every year on the back of growing domestic capital and other factors of production. By 2019, economic growth had seen Tanzania’s GDP per capita inch up to $1080. In 2020, the World Bank had no choice but to announce the upgrade of the Tanzanian economy from low income to lower middle-income country. This is because Tanzania had crossed the threshold for low-income countries by almost $50

One more thing that Magufuli would be remembered for is that he maintained a clean record and high moral standards,throughout his years of service to his country. He ran the Works ministry for many years, awarding large contracts involving millions of dollars but he was never associated with bribes, kickbacks or fraud. He was above board and this helped in securing party leaders’ support to be nominated for the party’s ticket in 2015, when the favoured candidate Edward Lowassa, who had previously served as the Prime Minister, was forced to resign his positionbecause of a corruption scandal.

Naturally, as any other human being, he also had what many of his critics could point at as his negative side.He was accused of high handedness, authoritarianism and clamping down on opposition. He was also said to support some policies which many people in his country were against. For instance, a policy which prevented pregnant girls from going to school and expelled those already in school,resulted in tens of thousands of young girls being thrown out of school. The big one that western press made heavy weather of is his skepticism on the Coronavirus Pandemic and how several deaths would have been prevented had he taken the pandemic more seriously. They also alleged that his rhetoric was scaring foreign investors away from the country.

While it is not for us to put these allegations to scrutiny, we opine that any leader who appears to have a mind of his own would always meet resistance from foreign interests and local agents. On the issue of authoritarianism, there appears a thin line between enforcing rules and respecting the rule of law. Sometimes, reasonable force may be required to get things done. A debate which I do not think has been resolved around the concept of “benevolent dictatorship” may be relevant here. The argument around scaring away foreign investment is well-worn and now sounds like a broken record, as studies have shown that foreign capital is attracted to profits, no matter where it is located.

The final issue about the Tanzanian Covid controversy seemed to have gathered so much momentum that Magufuli’s re-election last year was practically hanging in the balance. However, it is our opinion that many world leaders, including President Donald Trump were skeptical about the Pandemic. Did it stop over 70m Americans from voting for him in the November 2020 election? Did it stop his MAGA, as different from the Maga used here, from supporting him, up to the point of staging an insurrection at the Capitol? Looking at the covid numbers as at March 25, 2021, while total cases worldwide was about 125.4m, US accounted for 30.7m while Tanzania accounted for 509 cases. With respect to deaths, as at the same date, total world death was 2.8m, while the US lost 558,000,Tanzania lost 21 people. I am not sure these numbers support the oft-repeated but clearly spurious claims that Magufuli’s Tanzania played down on the Pandemic leading to many deaths in the country.

It is our considered opinion that President Magufuli stood against powerful capricious forces – the Magas in Africa and around the world – and refused to suffer those fools gladly. Hemust go down in history as a foremost pan African leader and a patriot. This column salutes his courage and prays for the sweet repose of his noble and incorruptible soul. Following her subsequent assumption of power, we wish the first female President of Tanzania, SamiaSuhulu Hassan, every success in her tour of duty.

Finally, please permit me to wish all our Christian readers, a happy Easter celebration in advance.

Africa Missing from the Vaccine Laboratory.

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

If your house is on fire, don’t wait until you have the perfect house. People should get vaccinated with whatever effective vaccine they have access to because this will help protect themselves and their communities by impacting the global viral load.” – Dave O’Connor, University of Wisconsin Medical Foundation Professor of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison

The advent of the social media has democratised the media space in an unprecedented manner. All one needs to be an active player in the social media is a smart phone and data. Even though it has its negative side, one has enjoyed the social media so much that sometimes when one wants to laugh, there must be something that will make one have a hearty laugh. A few days ago, there was a message circulating in the social media about how the 54 countries in Africa could not make any attempt at developing their own brand of the vaccine but were busy waiting for the rest of the world to develop one for them to shamelessly procure. I will leave out the other part of the message. I forwarded that message to a friend of mine who is a Professor of Pharmacology in one of the Universities in the country and his knee jerk riposte was quite revealing. He pointed out that African researchers were still preoccupied with developing a vaccine against hunger! He therefore requested that they should not be distracted by the global race for the development of the Covid-19 vaccine!

It is a fact that out of the over 200 vaccine candidates going through different stages of tests and trials as at the end of last year, none is of African origin. The reason for this is not difficult to understand. Most of Africa is battling with several existential challenges that are more deadly than the virus. Their scourge are so debilitating that they give the continent little time to pay attention to research and development of Covid-19 vaccines. The fund needed to engage in development of vaccine is such that most African countries find more important and urgent uses for it. For instance, the United States of America is spending a tidy $9b to fund vaccine development and production, mainly for its citizens. The United Kingdom has spent about £12b on the same vaccine as at the end of January this year and is planning to spend more in the years ahead. Japan budgeted a spend of over $6b for the vaccine. From these it is easily discernible that the vaccine play is not for countries that are still battling to feed their populace.

Understandably, the way the whole space is arranged also makes it difficult for those who did not invest to reap any returns from the business. Thus, while such huge amounts are funnelled into the development and production of vaccine, the poor countries would eventually buy the vaccines from countries producing it at exorbitant prices. In the end, the big pharmaceutical companies are left with super profits which eventually go back to the countries that provided the funds for the research and development.

Vaccines are a sure antidote to viral infections, be they common colds or more complex ones like Coronavirus. Because Covid was novel when it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation exactly a year ago, many experts believed that like the Spanish Flu of over a century ago, the development of a vaccine was going to take years. The Spanish Flu of 1918 lasted until1938 when an effective vaccine was developed and accepted by health authorities. It was therefore reasonable to expect that a vaccine would take 5 to 10 years to develop. But they were wrong! The advancement in technology has shortened the delivery period of most human needs. The way vaccines were developed in those days is different from how they are made today. There are four basic approaches for making a vaccine going by existing medical literature. They are the RNA, the Viral Vector, the Whole Virus, and the Protein Subunits. All these approaches either use a harmless version of the virus or a synthetic version to trigger an immune response. So, the whole essence of the vaccine is an immunity play. Rather than being understood as an external body introduced to prevent the virus from infecting the vaccinated, the vaccine, should be understood as an external agent whose job is simply to arouse the body’s immune system to defend the body once it comes in contact with the virus.

Before now, vaccines were produced by injecting passive virus proteins called antigens to stimulate the body’s immune system so that they can identify specific virus and produce antibodies in response. These antibodies are expected to fight, not only the virus in the body, but also develop a reserve army of antigens to fight future virus infections. This is usually a very long process that is also susceptible to some ‘inexactitude’.

The fastest way to make a vaccine is the Ribonucleic Acid approach (RNA) also known as mRNA where m stands for messenger. This system is very easy to understand. We all know that the coronavirus is introduced into the body through the nose or mouth. Once introduced, it attaches itself to the cells in the body and releases its acid into the cell which transports the virus and makes long viral proteins which ultimately compromises the body’s immunity. Having done this, the virus is energised, multiplied and transported to other parts of the body. On account of the fact that the immunity system has been thus weakened, the infected person is susceptible to all types of sicknesses and if he had an underlying health issue before then, he stands a bigger risk of succumbing to any severe sickness and in extreme cases, death. The virus having taken over the body of one person, can be easily transported to other persons through body fluids, like sweat, saliva and other droplets. Therefore the best way to avoid the virus is to keep a reasonable distance from infected persons.

RNA vaccines work in such a way that a small fragment of the virus’s genetic code gets injected into the body and produces part of the Coronavirus which kicks the body into mounting a defence against the deadly virus. You may call it fighting the virus with a virus. This is the technology used by the Pfizer/Biontech and the Moderna Vaccines.

The third big name in Covid-19 vaccine production is the Oxford/AstraZeneca. This vaccine is also based on the RNA system. The only difference is that it uses a harmless virus to carry its own genetic material into the body.

The fourth brand of vaccine is the one made by Johnson & Johnson, which goes by the brand name Janssen. This is made by the same technology as the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. A fifth introduction into the Covid-19 vaccine market is the Novavax Vaccine, code named NVX-CoV2373. This is the only one made using the old technology which harnesses protein from the virus which is used with a chemical to kick the immune system into action once it is injected into the body.

It is instructive that all the vaccines mentioned above are made in Europe or America. China and Russia have also launched and started administering their own vaccines. China developed Sinovax, Cansino and Sinopharm vaccines and have started shipping to countries in Asia and South America. Reports have it that these vaccines are effective. Russia, on its side developed the Sputnik V vaccine made by Gamaloya Research Centre and has been using it to inoculate its people. Sputnik V is said to work the same way as AstraZeneca and is also effective.

All the vaccines considered above, even though are targeting the same virus, have different characteristics, work differently and are stored under different temperatures. While some require extremely low temperatures, others can be stored under room temperature. While some have near perfect efficacy levels, others have relatively low efficacy levels. Many require two doses while some require only a single dose. Of course, they come at different price levels even though most countries administer them to their citizens free of charge. We shall consider a table below where these properties are highlighted for ease of comparison.

Make Efficacy (%) No of Doses Full Dose Price Temp ©

Pfizer/Biontech 95 2 $39 -70

Moderna 94 2 $74 -20

Janssen 66-85 1 $20 -20

Oxford/AstraZ 63-82 2 $6 Room

Novavax 89 1 $16 2-8

Please note that while the Russian Sputnik V is claimed to have 92% efficacy level, China’s Sinovac is said to be 50% efficacious. These numbers are yet to be verified by the WHO. Interestingly, the vaccines are said to be effective in containing the new UK and South African variants of the virus. What has not been confirmed is how long the vaccines can keep the body protected against Covid infection.

The Nigerian government received close to 4m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine recently and has already started to administer them to the populace, beginning with the President and his Vice. Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines are from a weakened version of a virus known as “adenovirus” taken from chimpanzees. It is modified to look more like the coronavirus, but it cannot act like the virus. Injecting it into the body teaches the immune system how to fight the real virus. Of all the certified vaccines, AstraZeneca is the easiest to use and seems to have been made for the underdeveloped world, not just because it can be stored at room temperature, but because it is very cost effective. In addition, the second dose can be delayed as the first one can protect the body for a while, quite unlike other two-dose vaccines.

The whole pandemic phenomenon has generated quite some controversy since its advent. Some people argue that it is a scam, while some others insist that it was created in a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Some other theorists contend that it was a capricious campaign launched to reduce world population and eliminate some people of a particular race or income group. There was also the bizarre link of the vaccine with the 5G technology. Clearly, the development of the vaccine has not been left out of the controversy. Some people have argued that a vaccine certificate was in the offing which would entitle holders to enter some certain places to the exclusion of others and to travel by air. When you put all those together, you can better begin to appreciate the scepticism amongst some people with regard to the vaccine.

Criticisms have trailed the choice of AstraZeneca vaccine by the Nigerian government. Some of those critics have limited information about the vaccine. Granted that countries like Austria, Denmark, Norway, Iceland and Thailand which hitherto embraced the vaccine have suspended its rollout, following reports of deaths after the vaccine, blood clot and a few other side effects, it is important to state that there is no medication that does not have risks associated with it. Even the common Panadol pain killer, which some people swallow like food, is associated with the risk of liver compromise. We must therefore always differentiate between safety and risk. By the time we do this, we would realise that while the vaccine could be safe, it remains risky like many other things in life. The risks are the side effects and many of them have been listed. What is important is not whether there are risks but balancing the risks with the benefits. If the benefits far outweigh the risks, medical experts will go with the option. Sometimes the course of treatment would present very heavy risks, but experts would continue to recommend it based on the possible benefits and lack of viable alternatives. For instance, chemotherapy is known to be very violent to patients, but the alternative is to watch the patient get devastated by cancer. Oncologists still recommend chemotherapy to cancer patients despite the risks.

I believe Africa missed the chance of participating in the vaccine race when it neither seriously pushed the opportunities presented by Madagascar nor that of Senegal. No African country was serious with dedicating funding to support research and development efforts aimed at producing an African vaccine quite unlike what other countries did. It is already late in the day as many vaccine candidates are at different stages of the process of adoption. We should at the minimum educate our people about the products of other countries which is what we have attempted to do here. We should also ensure that everyone takes advantage of the opportunity to get the vaccine. It is the only sure route to eliminating Covid-19 for good.

Foreign Direct Investment as Local Indirect Divestment.

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“On the whole, China depends more on domestic investment and consumption than on exports to generate its growth.” –Cambridge Dictionary

The word Foreign Investment has dominated the economic space dialogue for a long time. It has been packaged in such a way that many people believe that without it, a developing country like Nigeria stands little chance of becoming a first world economy. The two major types of foreign investment are Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI). The former refers to foreign capital that is remitted from one country to the beneficiary country usually to set up businesses in the local economy. The foreign capital, therefore, must be invested either in an existing business or in a new one (green field). On the other hand, Foreign Portfolio Investment refers to foreign funds remitted solely for the purpose of acquiring stocks and government bonds.

This kind of foreign capital is also referred to as “hot money”. The reason for referring to it as hot money is that Foreign Portfolio Investment has a pattern of behaviour. It votes with its feet at the slightest provocation. If it senses that some unfavourable conditions are going to occur, before you say Jack Robinson, the funds would have left the country. Recently, we have had a preponderance of this kind of money dominating foreign currency inflows in Nigeria. Because of its volatility, it is very difficult for a country to plan on the back of foreign portfolio investment.

Recent reports have decried the drastic drop in foreign direct investment flows into the country. The decline had started much earlier before the pandemic worsened the situation last year. With specific reference to the numbers, net FDI into Nigeria dropped from $4.45b in 2016 to $3.50b in 2017. It further went down to $2.0b in 2018 and then rose to $3.3b in 2019, before dipping again to $2.6b in 2020. With all the talk, and even though FDI has witnessed a declining trend, it is doubtful that it has in recent times, been a significant contributor to investment in the Nigerian economy.

In relation to GDP, for the year 2020, Nigeria’s FDI to GDP ratio was 0.6%. This shows the insignificance of this category of investment to the economy. Hardly would you see in the literature any negative comment about FDI. In fact, the narrative has been that the country and in fact states must prepare themselves as beautiful brides for FDI. In fact, some Governors have wasted a lot of taxpayers’ money traveling from one country to another, ostensibly in search of FDI. The result, or more appropriately futility, of such trips, is all captured in the numbers posted above. But then, states should pay attention to those factors like, ease of doing business, corruption perception indices, and global competitiveness indices; if they are to attract significant foreign capital.

May I add quickly that one should not get me wrong, because all those indices are necessary for any country including Nigeria, to attract, not just foreign investment, but for local competitiveness also. In the whole narrative, scant attention is paid to some of the challenges with FDI. All we are made to understand are such well-worn arguments like: FDI helps in the transfer of technology, it creates jobs, it helps to maintain a healthy balance of payments for a country and that it encourages competition. While all these arguments may not necessarily be untrue, not a whole lot is said about the big risks associated with potential net capital outflows from host country, stifling competition given the strength of foreign capital, disruption in the healthy development of research and development in the country, culture and sometimes the interference in the political process of the recipient country.

Many people tend to confuse foreign investments with foreign remittances. The difference is that while foreign investment could form part of foreign remittances if the investment is in cash, foreign remittances are not necessarily foreign investment. A lion share of foreign remittances is meant for consumption and other expenses which are not investments. For instance, many Nigerian families are dependent on relatives who send money from outside the country, periodically for their upkeep. Much of the frenzy about declining foreign capital has to do with the sharp drop in foreign remittances occasioned by the Covid-19 Pandemic. Again, the phenomenon of foreign remittances is not our major concern today.

Foreign (investment) Capital, just like its local counterpart, seeks out markets that are conducive to it. It does not go where it is not welcomed. It feels welcome, not when seekers mouth platitudes and hyperbolic statements about how open they are for business. They do not respond when leaders take flights to organise dress rehearsals and beauty parades or road shows, making promises that are sometimes far from reality. In fact, foreign capital tends to have more up-to-date information about local markets than the local market players themselves. It has a way of hearing what local markets are not saying instead of listening to what they are saying. The interesting thing is that it is also good in leading the markets to believe what they want to believe and will only realise that they were not convincing only when it would have been too late to do anything about it.

While we are not despising road shows and marketing, our argument is that foreign capital has one major purpose: profit. Once it feels that the purpose would not be safely realised, it will take flight. Ever wondered why some countries would be at war and major oil companies would still make their way into the oil fields to drill oil despite the war? The answer is that investors are known to be rational and would only invest in a market that guarantees maximum returns on investment. That is the number one rule in investment.

The so-called benefits wittingly or unwittingly, occur along with the investment. It is like saying that associated gas is a benefit that comes with oil production. That statement could be true if the country knows how to and has capacity to utilise associated gas. Where neither the knowledge nor capacity exist, the gas could either be flared or reinjected. In like manner, where technology is required for production and somehow, the economy is able to copy or steal it, such benefit is described as “transfer of technology”.

While this column does not argue that foreign investment should be ignored or discouraged, it is our considered opinion that the promotion of foreign investment should not take such priority that local investment would be relegated to the background, as a result. In fact, we dare say that there is no evidence that any country has genuinely developed primarily on the back of FDI. This is because of the interest of foreign capital which would hardly be in tandem with local interests. The job of developing local economies should firmly, be the responsibility of local investors.

The search for foreign capital is only useful to the extent that consumption has been patterned to be import oriented. An export-oriented market would be exchanging local products with foreign currency and therefore would not necessarily be dependent on foreign capital to survive. Therefore, the first impetus to local investment is that the economy encourages local consumption and discourages foreign consumption. How to achieve this should not be by legislation or fiat, but by the effective use of the market forces and moral suasion to move economic agents to the desired objectives. Experience has shown that economic agents are almost always resistant to force but respond rationally to market forces.

Governments must also lead the way by investing appropriately in the economy. Government’s investment should not be in business but in its enablers. Government should concentrate on those factors that support and boost business.

One of the major enablers of business is education. Education is important to expose the majority of the populace to rational and critical thinking. It also helps in building skills. A situation where a majority of the populace is either poorly educated or not educated at all, makes it difficult for them to understand arguments like the ones we are making now, talk-less of implementing them. So, we need to hit the reset button on education from primary to tertiary level, rejig the curricula to be in tandem with modernity, ensure adequate provision of teaching skills and facilities and retain excellence in our educational institutions. And I dare challenge us that this is not rocket science. We have the required skills and financial resources to do it, if we agree that it is a priority.

Another area of investment that is as important as education is infrastructure. Clearly, this cannot be overemphasised. A major reason why things do not seem to work in Nigeria is our criminal neglect of infrastructure over the years. We seem to have adopted a culture of refusing to maintain anything. Our penchant for awarding contracts has been elevated to such a level that our roads would start with potholes and graduate to craters and we would all ignore them waiting for a time to award contracts for the rehabilitation and resurfacing of the roads where large amount of money would be disbursed to ensure that pockets of corrupt officials are lined while the rest of the populace would be left to pay the price.

Failed, failing or outright lack of infrastructure is a disincentive to investment, be they local or foreign. Access is one of the major challenges of both agriculture and industry. Aside the risk that it poses to economic agents, there is the additional challenge of increasing the production cost which makes output uncompetitive. Infrastructural deficit is largely responsible for a situation where the cost of a product imported from China comes out cheaper than a similar product made in Nigeria. The outcome is that our product, which by the way, may be of inferior quality than the one made in China, may be produced at a much higher cost, and in a perfect market, would stand no chance of competing with its counterparts from other economies. When we factor in the cost of inefficient power supply, water supply and insecurity, what we would have is a net divestment from the economy.

The Coronavirus Pandemic has further exposed the very poor state of Nigeria’s healthcare delivery system. Public health, which is so important and has been taken for granted elsewhere, remains a major challenge in Nigeria. There is no doubt that this is a major disincentive to investment. We had dwelt on this in a previous column and will not want to go back to it, except to highlight that despite our outcry, not much seems to have been done about it and there is nothing to show that governments at both the Centre and states, see this as a priority even as more deaths are being recorded daily.

The reason why we spent some time on the disincentives to investments or better still, incentives to divestment is that the economy will only do well on the alter of the gross capital formation of the country. Our economy which still prides itself as the largest in Africa with the largest population cannot be said to be growing. In normal times, before recession, while the economy was growing at less than 2% per annum, the population was growing at over 3% per annum. That means that in economic terms, we have been declining. The only way for the economy to grow is that more investments must be made by the economic agents. This investment, we advocate should be local. And there are a lot of areas where investments can be made locally to add value to the economy.

Agriculture remains an area with very limited barriers to entry and requiring modest initial capital for simple crops. Other areas like livestock, haulage and logistics, fashion, media, real estate, trading, and financial services are a few of the areas that are seeking for investments. By investing in these areas, we could double our GDP in a few years, we could create 30% more jobs within a period of 2 to 3 years, we could reduce poverty level by 25% in 3 years, we could reduce insecurity drastically and we could begin to see growth in an otherwise recessed economy. If we do not focus on ramping up productivity and having more people participate in economic activities, the recovery of the economy could be a bit longer and more torturous.

Our conclusion is that we need not keep distracting ourselves looking up to ‘foreign investors’ to grow our economy. The answer lies within, and we must endeavour to seek out those local diamonds in the rough that need polishing. We must use them to regenerate this economy and solve our economic and social problems. We must learn to chop our own wood, and as Henry Ford advised, it will warm us twice.

We Are Joining Hands With Otti to Better Abia, PDP Leaders Disclose as They Declare for APC in Isialangwa South.

It was an atmosphere of glamour and ecstasy on Monday the 1st day of February, 2021, at Umunkpeyi Nvosi in Isialangwa South L.G.A of Abia state as five notable political leaders and former party officers of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in Isialangwa South L.G.A of Abia state led hundreds of their members and supporters to declare for the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The leaders who included Hon. Emmanuel Atulegwu from Obuba, Barr. Iyk Ogbonna, from Umunko Nvosi, Mr. Uchenna Akwarandu from Umunkpeyi Nvosi, Hon. Nwabueze Onwukamike from Umuogele Nvosi and Pastor Ambrose Nwogbe from Ngboko Nta said they took the decision to leave the PDP because of the developmental retardation which has bedeviled the state for too long, and disclosed that they took the direction of Dr. Alex Otti and the APC because they consider Dr. Otti as a great Abian and a man of goodwill who should be supported in the quest to salvage Abia state.

The leaders expressed regret over their inability to have taken the decision long before now, and explained that their eyes have opened to the realities of what Dr. Otti had preached all these years.

They maintained that time had come when what should occupy the mind of every Abian is the quality of leadership being offered rather than needless partisanship and other primordial issues that cannot impact positively on the lives of Abia people, and declared their desire and determination to join Alex Otti and other patriotic Abians in the progressive move to reposition the state for the good of all.

Speaking at the occasion, Dr. Alex Otti who received the decampees into the APC on behalf of the Acting National chairman, the state chairman and other officials of the party expressed happiness that his brothers and sisters took the bold and courageous decision to join hands with him and other like minds to pursue the noble cause that would change the fortunes of the state, and made it clear that any discerning and patriotic mind who had followed his activities and humane approach to politics and leadership would easily discover that he's not pursuing any self serving agenda having been immensely blessed by God, and called on other notable sons and daughters of the area to join hands with him in the APC and demand for an impactful shift from the old order.

Dr. Otti finally handed the APC broom symbol to the leaders of the decampees and urged them to use same and sweep away all political vices that had halted progress and development in Isialangwa South. Many party leaders were at the occasion including the Isialangwa South House of Assembly Candidate for the party in the last election Barr. Nnaemeka Otagburuagu and a former Isialangwa South LGA Chairman, Hon. Ishmael Onuoha.


Ferdinand Ekeoma
Special Adviser
(Media and Publicity) to
Dr. Alex Otti
03/02/2021.

Press Release

Go to Your Ward and Get Registered, Otti Urges Abians as APC Commences Membership Registration in Abia.


A renowned economist and Chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Abia state, Dr. Alex Otti has called on Abians to make use of the opportunity provided by the forthcoming membership registration exercise of the APC to get registered and become card-carrying members of the party.

Speaking through his special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Ferdinand Ekeoma, on the forthcoming registration exercise, Otti who joined the APC last year with thousands of supporters from his former party, explained that the membership registration exercise billed to commence on Monday, 25th January 2021 would provide members with the opportunity to enjoy the necessary rights and privileges accorded to members of the party, as well as the platform to make critical decisions that would assist the party achieve huge success in future elections.

According to Otti "What our party the APC is about to do is an exercise that would ensure that the membership of the party is captured in an electronic database , and would give us the opportunity to review our membership record, get to know our numerical strength, and above all, provide willing Nigerians the opportunity to become members of the APC, and the platform to participate in critical decisions of the party geared towards the advancement of democracy and upliftment of the welfare of the people "

The ex bank Chief made it clear that he will align with other Progressives in the party to ensure that the party was rejigged and repositioned to become more formidable so as to robustly play its role as the alternative party in Abia state with the ultimate desire of ensuring that Abians reap the benefits of democracy which has been denied them by successive governments, while also leveraging the opportunity of being the ruling party at the federal level to demand for what is due to Abia from the federal government at all times.

Finally, Dr. Otti called on party leaders and stakeholders at all levels, especially at the wards to ensure a hitch free process that would encourage people to troop out and register with the party.

Signed
Ferdinand Ekeoma
Special Adviser,
Media and Publicity to
Dr. Alex Otti.

United States of America: The Rich Also Cry

Outside the Box

By ALEX OTTI

“The Nigerian government is keenly monitoring the situation in the US and may impose sanctions on specific Americans and also a travel ban on President Donald J. Trump and his family. In addition, all those connected with attempts to scuttle democracy in the US may be restricted from traveling to Nigeria. We will not stand idly by and watch the will of the American people being subverted. Meanwhile, all Nigerian citizens should avoid non-essential travels to the United States until further notice”

The opening text above was a message I received from a Nigerian friend of mine serving in the US military. For a moment, I had thought the message was actually a press release from the Nigerian government but it turned out to be a joke!

Credit for today’s title goes to the Mexican telenovela, “The Rich Also Cry”. In the the early to mid 1990s the Nigerian Television Authority was showing the soap opera which immediately became so popular that people across all ages and gender would book a space where there were television sets to watch the different series of the programme. For some of us with humble beginnings, television was one luxury that only the rich could afford. The next best form of luxury then was having access to a home that had a television set. For better reception, the television boxes, yes boxes, which were typically locked up when not in use, to prevent unauthorised access, had long outdoor antennas connected to the sets. Anywhere, those long poles stood on top of or by the roofs, one could easily tell, was the home of a ‘big man’. Veronica Castro, the star of the 1979 soap, was very successful and the Mexicans exported it to the rest of the world with so much pride, pomp and pageantry.

For the past four years, the world has been treated to a cocktail of entertainment, embarrassment and outright absurdity. The ‘Veronica Castro’ of this soap opera is none other than Donald Trump himself. We have been front row audience to his unbelievable antics from the time he showed up as an aspirant to the US Presidential race in 2015 to today, just days to his eventual exit from the global spotlight into inevitable relative obscurity.

Trump’s emergence as a Presidential Candidate of the Republican Party still remains a mystery to pundits. There were some obviously more acceptable aspirants like Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney and the award winning neurosurgeon, Ben Carson. Yet, somehow, Trump trumped them all and emerged the candidate of choice. I have heard people ask what is in a name? Well, as in this case, one could say, ‘a whole lot’! The name ‘Trump’ has a connotation that depicts everything that Donald Trump has so far turned out to be. The dictionary says that “to ‘Trump’ is to outrank or defeat someone or something, often in a highly public way. Originally, ‘trump’ implied a deceptive form of victory involving cheating, ….. and the term ‘trumped up’, meaning something that’s been falsely made up”

Trump went on to face Hillary Clinton, who emerged his Democratic Party rival in the general elections. Trump ran a vicious campaign against the highly qualified lady, insulting, abusing and making all manner of false allegations against her. Some of us felt that Trump’s conduct before and during the campaigns, was enough reason for Americans to reject him at the polls, but we were wrong. Little did we know that the mainstream Americans enjoyed and celebrated what most of the observing world felt was unacceptable, indeed very bad, behaviour. In one of the election debates in 2016, Trump was asked if he would concede defeat if he lost the election and the man simply said he would not. Again, it was strange that some whites and rural dwellers had already cast their votes before the debate and the outcome of those debates was of no consequence as far as their votes were concerned. It was shocking to to hear that Trump won the election, even with fewer of the popular votes, than Hillary Clinton, his opponent. This victory drew attention to the American constitutional provision of electoral votes versus popular votes. Donald Trump was inevitably, therefore sworn in as the 45th President of the US even with the final vote count where Hillary Clinton won the popular votes with a margin of 2.1% and actual vote differential of 2.9m. Trump had 304 of the 538 electoral votes leaving Hillary with just 234.

As soon as Trump took over power, he started dismantling whatever he saw as the legacy of his Predecessor, Barack Obama. Trump carried on as if Obama was responsible for everything that went wrong with the US. One of the first victims of his scotched earth policy was the affordable healthcare act, also know as the Obama Care without a credible alternative. He went on the war path with many well meaning individuals who did not agree with him in his Demolition Derby. These included politicians, journalists, and even the international community. In addition to these were also even his own aides, whom he hired and fired with reckless abandon. He took on the North Korean and Chinese Presidents in the same gusto as he did several long time allies of the US. He took the USA out of international and multilateral organisations at will, without any care of international niceties and the implications of such actions. He pursued his so called, “America First” agenda as if it meant “America Alone”. He placed visa bans on countries at will and mercilessly separated minors from their parents in the pursuit of unwelcome visitors from what he called “shit hole countries”. Without disguising it, he supported white supremacists and in the process tacitly encouraged violence against minorities and coloured people. His self-styled nationalistic ideals unfortunately reduced America’s influence in the comity of nations. The real impact of Trump’s actions is that he ended up representing everything America hitherto publicly preached against.

As 2020 approached, and with the advent of the Covid-19 Pandemic which he obviously handled so poorly, it was clear his prospects of a second term were uncertain. The Democratic Party nominated Joe Biden, a compassionate and thoroughbred former Vice President, as its Candidate to confront Trump. In his characteristic manner, Trump abused and mocked Biden from the very beginning, and called him all sorts of names, including but not limited to “Sleepy Joe”. I could remember a video of Trump asking his supporters what it would sound like to hear that he was defeated by ‘Sleepy Joe’. He boasted that if that happened, he might have to relocate to another country. One hopes that he is packing his bags to relocate to either China or even Iran!

After running a heated campaign laced with insults and abuses, the election finally came on November 3. Trump is not one that would contemplate, let alone concede, defeat. As the reality of the election results began to dawn on him, he raised hell and brimstone, made all sorts of allegations of rigging and electoral malpractices, all without supporting facts. He raised a team of lawyers to file scores of frivolous law suits in the courts across the country disputing the election. Unfortunately for him, the Judiciary painstakingly dismissed them all. Meanwhile, once Biden was sure that he had won the election, he moved quickly to begin transition arrangements. Trump ensured that the in-coming Administration did not receive any cooperation from government. It was only after much public outcry, that Trump agreed to fund the transition comittee.

The electoral college met on December 14 and at the end of their voting, Biden expectedly won the election with 306 votes against against Trump’s 232 votes . Still, Trump would not concede. He employed all sorts of tactics that the world would have sworn could not happen in America. He filed more lawsuits and the more lawsuits he filed, the more he lost. Interestingly, several of these lawsuits were thrown out by judges that he himself had appointed. His desperation was to lead him to attempt rolling out the military as reported by the media. Again, that also failed. Just last Wednesday, January 6 2021, Trump mobilised thousands of his diehard supporters to disrupt the certification of the electoral college votes at the Capitol, a constitutional requirement in which the Congress approves the results to pave way for the transfer of power. Ordinarily, this certification exercise, is a mere formality, which usually does not last more than an hour. Trump had earlier tried to blackmail his Deputy Mike Pence to truncate the process since Pence, as the Vice President, constitutionally doubles as the President of Senate. As was widely expected, Pence ignored him. So much physical and psychological damage was done by Trump’s mob attack. About five lives were reportedly lost in the attack. In issuing a statement to contain his supporters, Trump shockingly treated the domestic terrorists he had created from his actions and speeches, with kid gloves. He justified their action and assured them that he loved them. It was not until this barbaric action was condemned by the whole world and he saw that his empire of sand was finally crumbling, that Trump issued a terse statement assuring an orderly transfer of power on January 20, 2021. After over four hours of violence, congress defied all odds, reconvened and completed its job, certifying Biden and Harris as winners of the 2020 election.

Not a few people are intrigued, even outraged, by the whole saga. Actions that were usually associated with the poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are now the hallmarks of Trump’s America! Some people have tagged what happened at the Capitol as an attempted coup. In protest, many hitherto Trump ardent supporters started jumping ship. White House staff and aides began turning in their resignations. The Police Chief at the Capitol and the Sergeant At Arms, have also resigned. Democrats and a few Republicans as well including Vermont’s Republican Governor, Phil Scott have called for Trump’s immediate resignation or impeachment, even though he has just about 9 days to the end of his tenure. Facebook, Instagram and Twitter have all suspended his social media accounts with which he spewed hate and falsehood. The ignominious end that Trump inevitably crafted for himself and truly deserves, is playing out in a way that he never anticipated. However, I don’t see that Trump will voluntarily resign going by his antecedents. I don’t also see that the impeachment process, even if initiated, can be successfully completed, given the limited time available. But a lot of lessons must have been learnt by America and I believe that the country will need to immediately begin some democratic reforms to ensure that another Trump does not emerge in future and take America and the rest of the world for a ride, without a car.

America prides itself as the beacon of democracy. But this claim is challengeable. For instance, the basic foundation of democracy is the principle of one man one vote. One can understand the reasoning behind setting up the electoral college by the founding fathers. However, one can say that even that reasoning itself, was rooted in inequality based on education and exposure. But things have since changed. I am fully convinced that it is finally time to scrap the electoral college and apply the doctrine of universal adult suffererage and equality of votes. This is the case with other democracies in the world. If this reform had been made before 2016, a Trump Presidency would probably not have happened in the first place. Closely related to this is the doctrine of Separation of Powers. A situation where the Vice President is the President of Senate negates that hallowed doctrine. If Pence had behaved like Trump or if a Ruddy Giuliani had been the Vice President, the event of the 6th of January would have left a permanent damage on America. Again, the constitutional provision requiring Congress to certify electoral votes may have a been a formality in the past, but Trump has made everyone realise that democracy could be unraveled from that simple process. Of course, if the electoral college is scrapped, there will be no votes to certify in the first place.

All told the strong American institutions prevailed over strong men . The US has many firm and courageous individuals to thank for rescuing her democracy. Men and women of the Judiciary, for instance, stood their grounds and must be fully complimented for this. The military also sent a clear message that it was loyal to the constitution and not to any individual. The electoral officers refused to budge even under pressure and threatening direct phone calls from Trump. The media even yanked him off air in the middle of a press conference when it realised he was dishing out lies to the public. Many congressmen and women opted to side with the truth, instead of succumbing to hollow party loyalty. I know someone would be wondering what my interest is with America when my country has not fixed even the most basic of its challenges. My response would be that if the country from where we copied our constitution and one which we see as our model decides to slide downhill, then it means there is no hope for us. America is a role model for democracy and rule of law. The whole world is inspired and guided by the American experiment, which has lasted over two centuries. It must not fail at this time when many of the world’s countries are being drawn towards democracy and are using it to promote peace, security and economic prosperity across the world. Having successfully managed that thin line with astounding results for the rest of the world to copy and benefit. America must continue along that glorious, even if tortuous path. In the resultant sustained success of the American society, I still believe that there remains hope for the rest of us.

Who Moved My Fufu: From Revenue Allocation to Generation.

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

“If individuals can take from a common pot, regardless of how much they put in it, each person has an incentive to be a free rider, to do as little as possible and take as much as possible because what one fails to take, will be taken by someone else” – John Stossel

In 1998, Dr. Spencer Johnson published a book with the title “Who moved My Cheese?” Many Nigerians would agree that in terms of context, fufu may well pass as our local parallel of the English cheese. This book, which became an instant bestseller, aptly describes a situation of change which humans face daily. He created four characters Sniff, Scurry, Hem and Haw who go into a maze, which represents our world or our country, in search of food which the cheese represents. The first two characters were mice and the last two were what he called ‘little people”. Every day, they go into the maze and gorge on their cheese to their satisfaction and all seemed okay. One day, they come to their usual place for their favourite cheese and to their surprise, there was none available. They all are naturally frustrated, but then two of the mice quickly adjust and begin to search for new cheese in the maze.

The little people, Hem and Haw are confused and refuse to understand what could have happened to their cheese. They whine and complain but one of them, Ham quickly adjusts to the new reality and goes out in search of new cheese, while Hem remains there brooding. As Haw continues his search, he writes the lessons he was learning on the wall, hoping that Hem would leave their original position and as he was coming after them, would read and quicken his pace in his own search. Haw was trying to help his colleague and stop him from sticking to outdated and fruitless habits. But he was mistaken as Hem was still stuck at the same place, agonizing over his cheese that had been moved. Soon after, Haw discovers new cheese and much to his chagrin, the other characters, Sniff and Scurry, were already landlords in the new place with new cheese. He nevertheless, quickly joins them to enjoy the new cheese hoard.

Spencer’s book correctly describes our situation in Nigeria today. Just about a week ago, the Financial Times of London reported that the World Bank has warned that the Nigerian economy runs the risk of unraveling if it did not implement some difficult, and maybe unpopular, reforms. In fact, the World Bank fears that personal incomes in Nigeria will go down below where they were in the last forty years or more. This is because of the effect of the pandemic on economic growth which is expected to hover around -4% at the end of the year. Accordingly, the World Bank suggested reforms which included, moving closer to a market-driven exchange rate regime, reopening of land borders, easing foreign exchange restrictions on business, reforming the tax system, fixing the power sector and extending direct cash transfers to the vulnerable and poor. While these reforms may help in tackling the country’s economic challenges, it is our sincere belief that the major problem is productivity. Not only are the current levels and rate of production very low, the productive base of the economy is too weak to sustain the burgeoning population. That is the central debate we want to start today. It is important that we state here that in the realm of Economics as a social science, there is no absolute truth. Everything is predicated on the interplay of numerous social forces and phenomena that are ever dynamic. What we do here is to stimulate healthy debates and discussion and in that wise hope to proffer suggestions on how to deal with the country’s numerous and ever-growing challenges.

Since the discovery of oil in Nigeria, the product has moved from being a component in the basket of goods that we export to being virtually the only product we export. Over 80% of our foreign export earnings is accounted for by oil. About 65% of federal revenues also comes from oil. As you can surmise, the saddest part of the story is that Nigeria exports oil in its crudest form. There is little or no value added. So, Nigeria adds nothing to the product that mostly multinationals with foreign technology extract from the ground. We therefore lose the opportunity to add value to the crude and also the opportunity to benefit from the employment that goes with value addition. We import the refined product with some of our foreign exchange earnings, burn off the products and go to sleep. But these activities continue to look normal on the face of it. This same oil accounts for a large chunk of money that governments spend. The federal, state and local governments, gather every month at Abuja, under the supervision of the Minister of Finance to share money on the platform of the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Here, the commissioners of Finance of the nation’s 36 states, gather every month to distribute the funds at a meeting before their accounts are credited by the Central Bank Of Nigeria. I am told that virtually all activities in the ministries, both at the states and the centre, practically come to a halt, when FAAC is in session. Our concern today is not about the inefficiency and hazard of putting such a number of people (as I’m told the commissioners are normally accompanied by a retinue of government officials as if to stop them from disappearing with the money) on the road every month for what could be done electronically or virtually. We are more concerned about the whole concept of “sharing money” monthly. The concept presupposes that beneficiaries have worked jointly, and the proceeds of their efforts are to be distributed between the people that worked. But we also know that this is not the case. On the contrary, people who have little or nothing to do with the generation of resources gather in a heady room in Abuja and distribute those resources, according to a formula already enshrined in the constitution.

It is this whole concept that has gotten the whole country lazy and our governments unconcerned about creating the enabling environment for wealth creation in their different domains. After all, whether they do anything or nothing at all, at the end of the month, there is money to be shared in Abuja. There are a few sub national governments that have made efforts to make their environments business friendly to attract investments to them and therefore generate appreciable revenue to run government from internal sources. Unfortunately, most of them have done the opposite. The contradiction, however, is that other than Lagos State, most of the states that do well in internally generated revenue are also the same states that get the largest proportion of federal allocation. The simple explanation is that the internally generated revenue comes largely from oil and oil-related activities.

The practice of sharing our revenue is a constitutional arrangement and no one is in doubt that it cannot be changed without amending the constitution. With respect to FAAC, the federal government is constitutionally allocated 52.68% of the total funds while the States and local governments share 26.72% and 20.60% respectively. On account of the fact that the constitution makes the local governments an appendage of the States, an account called the Joint Allocation Accounts (JAAC) is maintained by each state. Unwittingly, this gives State governors huge control of, and unencumbered access to local government allocation. Expectedly, many State Governors take undue advantage of this arrangement to manipulate and impoverish the local governments. This is the reason for the strident clamour for local government autonomy.

It is also for this reason that some state governors refuse to conduct local government elections, preferring to run the local governments with the despicable transition councils that have been conveniently structured to be a permanent arrangement. For Value Added Taxes (VAT), the federal government keeps 15%, the states and local governments are required to share 50% and 35% respectively. In distributing federal allocation at the state level, states and local governments with larger population and local governments get more than their counterparts with fewer people and local governments. These have remained contentious issues as both parameters suffer from transparency deficit.

Those who have been following developments in the economy would agree that revenue from oil, the major source of our federal revenue has been an endangered species for a while now. Oil prices have been a subject of uncertainty more so with the Pandemic. While we saw oil prices of over $130 in the early part of the decade, we have also witnessed sub $30 oil and even now, it hovers around $50 with a negative outlook for the future. This situation is made worse by the resolve of the developed world to phase out fossil fuel within the next decade to two, in favour of renewable energy sources. Even if we assume that the two scenarios were not going to happen, one certainty is that oil is a depleting resource and one day, the reserves would dry up or become irrelevant in the global energy equation. All these pose major headwinds for the Nigerian economy and more so, for states that depend on federal allocation for survival.

Herein lies the import of the lessons of the book, “Who moved My Cheese?” For the Nigerian, the question could well be, ‘Who moved my Fufu”? Being that the Fufu is sure going to move, is it not a good time to start thinking of replacement revenue sources for oil? We had made the argument that ours is one of the few countries where government expenditure is run on the back of revenue allocation. Some other countries which are equally blessed with oil, have built up massive savings and established sovereign wealth funds with huge balances from their own proceeds. Nigeria’s have been simply blown with little or nothing to show for it. Nigeria managed to set up a Sovereign Investment Authority (Sovereign Wealth Fund), through sheer insistence of a few dogged bureaucrats but it was poorly funded. The funds would have yielded much greater returns to the country today given the impressive returns that the NSIA has been reporting, thanks to its brilliant leadership and professional management. If our country didn’t have oil would it shut down? How about many other African countries that do not have oil? Why is Nigeria’s tax to GDP ratio a meager 6% while the average for the rest of Africa is over 15%?

To the Federal government, we had made extensive recommendations about cutting down on the cost of governance. Those recommendations need not be overemphasised. Our focus today is on the state governments. Several reports have indicated that more than one third of the states are unviable today, meaning that those states cannot generate enough revenues internally, to run their affairs. Frankly speaking, such states should be merged immediately with others so that they can save on the cost of administration. Those reports have also indicated that less than one third of the states have the capacity for fiscal self-sufficiency. The rest can manage, albeit with some help. It is our considered opinion that, given the right incentives, many of these states can be viable. However, the incentive that they have is to be dependent and give up their ability to think.

Given the incentive to think and survive, states should evaluate the resources that are available in their domain first. There is no state that does not have a comparative advantage for some agricultural produce in the country. There is also no state that does not have at least one mineral resource that it can exploit for the benefit of its economy. This is the time to pay attention to such opportunities. Our recommendation is not necessarily for the governments to invest directly in these ventures but to create the enabling environment for the private sector to invest in them. To achieve these objectives, governments must invest in infrastructure, namely roads, railways, electricity, drainages and water.

They must invest in security and also, human capital development including health, education, and skills acquisition. They must create the right incentive packages needed to attract foreign and local capital. In addition, they must run a transparent and open government, free of corruption and underhand deals. There must be opportunity for all willing and capable entrepreneurs to participate objectively and competitively in access to the resources and incentive packages that the states have to offer. They must pay attention to the critical issue of ease of doing business and must see themselves as being in competition with other states and even neighbouring countries in attracting investments. States should know that all these are important to investors, donor agencies and development partners alike.

We continue to argue that capital has no loyalty. It simply flows to those locations and economies that have organised themselves to receive it. These are just the foundations for creating enduring financially independent governments. With the proper foundation being laid, technological inventions and innovations can be led by such states which will further consolidate their financial independence. Our Fufu has moved and we must have the courage and strength to find where it has relocated to. We must be the new landlords of the new location if we must thrive in the emerging new future.

My dear readers, permit me to use this opportunity to wish you all Merry Christmas and a fantastic 2021.

*CALL FOR APPLICATIONS*

The Alex Otti Foundation (AOF) calls for applications from interested candidates for the Foundation’s Tertiary Education Scholarships for the 2020/2021 academic session.

The scholarship scheme was established as part of the Alex Otti Foundation’s programmes which seek to assist indigent students resident in Abia State with financial support to facilitate their educational pursuits.

The scholarship is to help very bright and hardworking students in all the local governments across Abia, who have been admitted into tertiary institutions across Nigeria, by paying their tuition from when they win the scholarship until they graduate - so long as they maintain a certain *Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA)*.

The financial support aims to mitigate the financial challenges students face in the course of their studentship.

The scholarship is funded by Dr Alex Otti (OFR), who himself finished with a First-Class degree in Economics, and emerged the university-wide best graduating student of his set at the University of Port Harcourt in 1988. His success and wealth of experience in Banking, Oil and Gas, Hospitality, Construction and Telecoms will serve as great motivation for the winners.

Scholarships will be awarded on the basis of strong personal academic background, leadership potential and a demonstrated desire to use the acquired knowledge to contribute to the development of both Abia State and Nigeria. Winners will be expected to, upon completion of their studies, apply their talents and knowledge in improving the lives of others. Over time, it is expected that the Alex Otti Scholarship beneficiaries will form a strong network of leaders who will individually and collectively contribute to the wellbeing of Abia State in particular, and Nigeria in general.

Successful candidates will be required to maintain a CGPA of at least 3.5 - for those studying in universities (or its equivalent, for those in other tertiary institutions) every academic session to continue to enjoy the scholarship till they graduate.

This year’s application is for the 2020/2021 academic session; and is open to indigent students resident in Abia State, who are currently enrolled in government-owned tertiary institutions.

*WHO CAN APPLY*

-> Students who are currently in 2nd-year (200 Level) in any government-owned tertiary institution in Nigeria.

-> Candidate must have had at least a CGPA of *3.5* - for universities (or its equivalent, for other tertiary institutions) in their first academic session (that is, First Year).

*OTHER REQUIREMENTS*

-> Candidates must submit statement of result for first academic session (that is, First Year) signed by the Department/Faculty’s Admin Officer (who rightfully is a representative of the registrar in the department or faculty) possibly during the final interview.

-> Candidates must present letter of recognition by their community/religious group leader or electricity utility bill of the last three months, to prove they currently reside in Abia State.

-> Candidates must submit a 900-word brief essay explaining: (a) why they deserve the scholarship, (b) their leadership qualities, and (c) how their education will benefit Abia State and Nigeria in the future.

-> Candidates must provide valid means of identification.

*WHO SHOULD NOT APPLY*

-> Siblings (that is children who share same parents) of current Alex Otti Foundation scholars are not eligible and will not be until their sibling’s current scholarship runs its full course.

*DEADLINE*

Applications close by midnight, Wednesday, 20th January, 2021. Any application not FULLY completed by the closing date WILL NOT be processed.

*METHOD OF APPLICATION*

Candidates are to apply online at http://alexottifoundation.org/portal/register.php#loginform

*FURTHER NOTES TO APPLICANTS*

1. The Scholarship is for those resident in Abia State. This means there is no difference between those who ancestrally hail from the state and those whose families migrated from elsewhere. So long as you live in the state, even if you are schooling elsewhere in Nigeria, you are eligible.

2. Indigent students are those whose families cannot honestly afford the cost of tertiary education. Those with the means to pay for tertiary education should consider staying away from this scholarship their own way of giving back to the society.

3. Only candidates who scale through the first screening will be contacted.

As Recession Stages A Strong Comeback
OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

‘Out of adversity comes opportunity’ – Benjamin Franklin

On April 27, 2020, in our column titled “Coronavirus: The Morning After” we had correctly predicted another recession thus: “However, while we prepare for extended co-existence with Covid 19, one thing that is clear nevertheless, is that the economy has gone into a tailspin which will ultimately lead us into a recession by October this year. In fact, if care is not taken, it will degenerate into a depression. This is the stark reality and we must begin to think of how to deal with it.”

Our prediction was corroborated by the World Bank in a release on June 25, 2020 where it stated “the collapse in oil prices with the Covid-19 Pandemic is expected to plunge the Nigerian economy into a severe economic recession, the worst since the 1980s”.

Today, Nigeria has made it once again, into the league of economies in recession, with effect from October 1, 2020. Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics released its report for the end of the third quarter 2020, with negative GDP growth of 3.62%. In the second quarter, GDP declined by -6.1%, resulting in cumulative GDP growth rate of -2.48% for the first three quarters of 2020. This is happening just four years after the economy went into a recession in 2016. Even though the economy managed to recover in 2017, growth numbers were very minuscule leading some analysts to argue that the country never actually recovered from the recession of 2016. Technically speaking, economic growth must be related to corresponding population growth for it to make sense. Therefore, the average growth rate from 2017 to 2019 of around 2% per annum versus the average population growth of 3% per annum meant that our economy was growing slower than the number of mouths it was supposed to feed.

The recession this time around is on the heels of the Coronavirus Pandemic. In a way, one can take comfort in the fact that virtually all parts of the world is experiencing economic meltdown at the same time. For instance, just a few days ago, the Indian economy was reported to have plunged into its first recession since 1947. GDP in India fell from -23.9% in June to -7.5% in September 2020. We should note, however, that for economies that were strong before the pandemic, the ease with which they would get out the recession would be different from ours. Secondly, our economy is not helped by our own demons that have been with us for a while. The first one is the foreign exchange crisis which today is assuming a desperate dimension as exchange rates continue to deteriorate at both the official and unofficial markets.

The foreign exchange challenge had been lurking around the corner since oil prices began to slide downwards. Again, before this recession, we had managed to steer our economy into a debt trap. As at half year, Nigeria’s total debt stood at about $86b or N31trillion with its attendant debt service pressure. In the first half of the year, we had spent N1.21trillion just to service debt and all things being equal, we may spend the same amount, if not more, by the second half of the year. This means that about 25% of our 2020 budget of N10.8trillion would go into debt service. Our revenue, on the other hand, remains abysmally poor and its net effect is that more than half of our annual revenue goes to debt servicing. The summary of all these is that we do not have enough elbow room for more aggressive borrowing as we clearly have borrowed to the teeth. Other challenges like unemployment, poverty level, inflation and extremely poor productivity still remain with us.

Government functionaries are positive that recovery would happen as early as next year. In fact, some starry-eyed optimists stridently claim that this will happen within the first quarter of 2021. Truth be told, one does not see the economic, social and political fundamentals that would ensure quick recovery and therefore, we intend to interrogate that optimism and make an attempt at looking at what we should be doing if we want a quick resolution. Many people are agreed that spending is one of the most effective ways of getting out of a recession. As far back as 1945, President Franklin D Roosevelt had proclaimed and demonstrated this in his “New Deal” policy that basically stimulated the post 2nd World War US economy through spending and it worked.

Obama did the same in the modern-day economy, following the sub-prime economic crises. His economic therapy also worked. With these examples, no one would argue with government on spending our way out of recession. The big problem is the gory picture painted above where we tend to be over leveraged. There is a limit to how much we can borrow, especially when one factors in the fact that capacity to repay is a major consideration by lenders when taking credit decisions. There is no doubt that we are almost at unsustainable levels with our debt management profile. Even the resort to ways and means has its limitations given its inflationary effect. With current inflation rate crossing 14%, this option should not be contemplated at this time.

We believe Government needs to do a few specific things to pull the economy back from the brink. It will not be a one-therapy-solution but a bouquet or cocktail of measures. In our opinion, the focus on the foreign exchange market and exchange rate management should stop henceforth. It is our considered view that the CBN should suspend its managed float exchange rate policy now and completely float the currency. CBN should therefore become an active player in a free market where exchange rates will be determined by the forces of demand and supply.

We should assume that we don’t have oil or that our oil reserves have dried up or better still, recreate the lockdown scenario under Covid-19 where no one was willing to buy crude oil from us. Once we have reset our mind in this manner, then it would be easy to go in the direction we are proposing. Any time the CBN has foreign exchange to sell, its dealers would enter the market and sell at the market rate for that day. CBN will also buy directly from the market when it wants dollars. CBN, in the exercise of its regulatory role, may choose to buy or sell foreign exchange depending on the outcome it wants to achieve. If it wants to moderate rates downwards, it would sell and when it wants the opposite outcome, it will buy.

A few things would naturally happen if we did this. The first is that exchange rates would go up but would not stay there for long as the forces of demand and supply would regulate them towards some equilibrium. Second, CBN will no longer worry about managing exchange rates as market forces would take over. The third is that speculators would go out of business as there would no longer be uncertainty in the market. Fourth, the real price of the currency and imported goods and services would be clear as any hidden subsidy in foreign exchange would have been removed and the otherwise distortionary situation would be gone for good.

The fifth is that CBN, and therefore government, would start receiving appropriate value for its foreign exchange earnings because it would be selling at the prevailing market rates which, to all intents and purposes, would be higher than the present official rate that is managed and therefore contrived. Sixth, the multiple exchange rate regime; another recipe for distortion; would have been permanently eliminated. Seven, consumption of foreign-made goods and services, would be reduced to necessaries to the elimination of luxuries, as it is today. The reason for this is because imports would thus become more expensive since their price would be denominated in the foreign currency. The converse would also happen for local consumption and production as foreign goods would no longer engage in an unfair competition because of the subsidy they hitherto enjoyed. This is the eighth thing that would happen.

The nineth one is that, because the unfair competition would have been eliminated, local production would become more attractive and jobs would be created as a result. There is no doubt that it will help to suck up the large reserve army of the unemployed and restless youth. The tenth is that with more productivity and more local consumption, the economy will begin finally to grow again in real terms and GDP will begin to head north. It is only then that we can boldly bid recession goodbye. Finally, as the CBN begins selling its foreign exchange holdings at real market rates, it would raise more Naira for every such sale. This difference can be deployed in stimulating the economy without resorting to borrowing or printing money. This surplus can also be used in paying local contractors. Once they are thus paid, they would spend same in the economy, thereby increasing economic activities and whittling down recessionary pressure.

Like we said earlier, there are other things that would help in our economic recovery efforts. We had extensively made recommendations in previous interventions on cutting down cost of governance and they remain imperative, even more so at this time. Heavy government spending does not stimulate the economy, rather it turns into a complete drainpipe that must be plugged by all means. Government must also identify priority areas to support to help the economy come out of crisis. In our case, agriculture remains a top pick for so many reasons. It is a sector that guarantees food security and this does not need to be overemphasised, particularly in a country where more than 50% of its population lives below poverty line of less than $1.90 per day. It is also an area that has the capacity to mop up a lot of idle labour to reduce unemployment, especially the youth. Agriculture and its value chain can pioneer our positioning to play a key role in filling the supply chain gap created by the Pandemic. Even if we cannot be key players on the global scene, we can at least help rebuild our own supply chain and economic buffers.

Manufacturing is another sector that has been dealt a serious hand by the neglect of successive governments in Nigeria. Maybe because of cheap petrodollars and the resultant laziness, we hardly produce anything locally. Times were, when cars and trucks were assembled by companies like Peugeot Automobile Nigeria, Volkswagen of Nigeria, Mercedes Benz (ANAMMCO), Leyland and the like. These companies which not only employed thousands of Nigerians in their heydays, are comatose and virtually non-existent today. Tyre manufacturers like Dunlop, and Michelin relied heavily on our locally grown and processed rubber to make tyres locally that satisfied much of the demand of the domestic market and even some export. It is as if we went on a de-industrialisation voyage.

Gloomy as it may seem, we prefer to look at the unfolding scenario as a dark cloud that offers Nigeria a silver lining. This recession offers us an opportunity to start re-industrialising the country once again. A crack team could be set up by government to look at the possibility of getting some of these industries back on stream and where impossible or relatively expensive on account of antiquated technology or processes, new ones should be set up immediately and as a matter of priority. This would be followed by the setting up of research institutes, which may be attached to serious tertiary institutions. Such institutions should be supported to act as technology hub for industry, healthcare, agriculture and other concerns that depend on technology.

Due to the low attraction of such institutions to the private sector that are focused on returns to shareholders, these could be executed by government. However, once viability is established, it should default immediately to the private sector for commercialization and even privatization. This is an area that is so useful in view of the argument that the world has learnt a bitter lesson with the disruption of the global supply chain by the Covid-19 Pandemic. Many developed countries realised that they were running a concentration risk by relying solely on China for supply of their needs. Some of the more perceptible countries are now seriously looking to diversify their supply markets to other parts of the world.

Two major world powers seeking such replacements are the US and Japan. Our belief is that with serious rethinking of our policy framework geared towards making Nigeria a manufacturing hub, we stand a good chance of benefitting from the new policy shift. We are positive that we are well positioned to do this, once the will is there. We have a private sector that can rise up to that challenge, given the right package of incentives and support by government.

Necessity they say, is the mother of invention. Most innovations in history come from the need to adapt to a crisis. Solutions are so called because they are a response to a need or a problem. We have operated as if we have no problems for a long time, but the truth is that we sure do have problems. Economic recession is not unusual so, we need not panic. In fact, the ease with which a country slips into a recession may also be the ease with which it would get out of it, if it does the right thing.

Besides, because recession points to two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, any number that is above zero amounts to a positive growth and the country would have exited recession. However, just like we had demonstrated here, you can exit recession in theory but remain therein in practice. That is why it becomes imperative that we do not waste the unique opportunities that this recession offers, like we had done in the past. We have no doubt that if we do the right thing, out of this recession, may emerge a stronger and more resilient Nigerian economy.

TAKE BACK YOUR MACHETE AND GIVE ME BOOKS


OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

On Saturday November 7, 2020, I had the privilege of presenting a keynote address at Umuahia, Abia State on the occasion of the 2020 Diocesan Youth Day Celebration, organised by the Catholic Youth Organisation Of Nigeria. I crave your indulgence to share the speech with you today. I can only add that given the situation the Nigerian society finds itself today, there is a compelling reason to pay greater attention to the youth and the challenges of engaging them to greater relevance and development. This must start with a single minded focus on education. If we fail in this endeavour, it will be a very grave and regrettable outcome for us and our future.


“Education is the great engine of personal development. It is through education that the daughter of a peasant can become a doctor, that the son of a mine worker can become the head of the mine, that a child of farm workers can become the president of a great nation. It is what we make out of what we have, not what we are given, that separates one person from another.” Nelson Mandela

INTRODUCTION

I thank the organisers of this conference for finding me worthy to be the keynote speaker at the Diocesan Youth Day Celebration for this year, whose theme is “YOUNG MAN, I SAY TO YOU, ARISE”. It would not be out of place to contextualise the word “youth” for our purpose here. This is because the term has been used differently by different people. The United Nations defines youth as ‘young people between the ages of 15 and 24’. The Nigerian National Youth Policy, 2019 classified youth as ‘people between the ages of 15 and 29’. Whichever definition we choose, anybody 30 years and above cannot be genuinely considered as youth, even if they look youthful.


Then to the main issue: How do we handle this discussion? There are two ways of handling an assignment like this. The first is to say the usual perfunctory nice things about the youth, like, “the youth are leaders of tomorrow” or “any society that does not pay attention to the youth is doomed” and get an applause from the audience, share a meal with you and leave. While these statements may not be false, I also know that I would have added little or no value to the conference if I went in this direction. The second approach is to tell you the truth no matter how bitter it may sound and hope that “the truth shall set thee free”.


I have chosen the second option, and in that wise, I have also modified the topic I was assigned from “Entrepreneurship and Empowerment” to “Take Back Your Machete and Give Me Books”. We believe politicians have bastardised the term ‘empowerment’ and we intend to stay away from that word as much as possible. We also believe this topic is appropriate as people living in Abia can relate with it. Many people here will remember that in April 2015, just over 5 years ago, some politicians in this state armed some youths with machetes and deployed caskets in major junctions threatening hell and brimstone if their preferred candidate who actually lost the election was not declared winner. The rest like they say is now history.


THE NARRATIVE

God created man equal and before Him, everyone is equal. The youth should not accept any narrative that makes them look inferior to other humans. Yes, they may be young but not inferior. That someone has cornered public resources or is lucky to have a lot of resources at his disposal does not make him smarter or better than you. Time and chance happens to them all, says the holy scriptures. A situation where our youths succumb to picking crumbs or peanuts for less than dignifying roles in the society should be discouraged. A situation where you are recruited as thugs to rig elections and attack opponents reduce you individually and collectively. It is not just that the politicians regard and treat you as touts, but you aid them to cheat you and your hapless parents.

You worship them as if they were gods and do their bidding just for pittance. Anytime someone pays you to render less than noble services to him, you become a slave to him. You lose the moral right to complain when he is doing the wrong thing because he has settled you. You forget that the money they pay you is your money. You forget that when you collect N1000 to rig elections or sell your votes, it translates to N250 per year for the four years. Is that what you are worth? You forget that the children of the politicians are not here, yes, that includes mine.

They are not part of the touts. They cannot be thugs, even though that does not guarantee that they do not become dysfunctional. They cannot be used for elections. You don’t ask, why are we only relevant during election seasons? Yes, in between, you default to armed robbery, kidnapping and arson, given that you have weapons in your hands, but is it an enduring trade? You tend not to ask: why do they arm us with machetes and dangerous weapons every four years? What future do we have? For how long would we do these jobs?

THE ALTERNATIVE

It was Thomas Sowell who said “No one will really understand politics, until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems – of which getting elected and re-elected are number one and number two. Whatever is number three is far behind”. Are you still wondering why things are the way they are in Abia and Nigeria? It is therefore for you to “shine your eyes” and understand what is in your interest. Anyone who is interested in you will equip you to be successful. The equipment you need are not guns and machetes and dangerous weapons even if you have chosen hunting as your profession.

The time for “empowerment” by your “leaders” is over. The empowerment that ends up consigning you to menial jobs should stop. Some of you are still excited that politicians give you Keke Napep, Motorcycles, bicycles, sewing machines, frying pan and of course, money. Those are not what you need at this time. Like Nelson Mandela said above, what you need is Education. Quality Education! Yes, we Igbos are endowed with entrepreneurial spirit and there is nothing wrong with that. But a well educated entrepreneur will always do better than an illiterate one. It takes education to prepare your business in a way that it can attract capital and be bankable. It takes education to know that your revenue is not profit.

It takes education to know that you should separate the money of the business from your personal money. It takes education to understand that you should earn salaries even if you own the business rather than seeing the entire money of the business as your own. It takes education to know that you must keep proper books for your business. I am in a position to know as a former bank CEO. You may argue that some successful businessmen did not ‘break chalk’ but were successful nonetheless. While, you may be right, what is also right is that they may have been even more successful if they had education. So, even if you have a flair for business or building or manufacturing something, you must do all there is to get educated. And like our people say, “madness is better at a young age”, it is better to go to school when your mates are also in school.

This is not to say that if you didn’t have an opportunity at young age, you shouldn’t take advantage of adult education, but that option should be the exception rather than the rule. It is along these lines that some of us, rather than dash money out in form of “empowerment” have decided to impact people through our scholarship programme. Permit me to make reference to the Alex Otti Foundation (AOF) which has been supporting indigent students in paying fees and providing educational support to people living in Abia. Just this year alone, the AOF gave scholarships to 32 qualifying students and this scholarship will last for the duration of their studies in higher institutions.

Out of the 32 students who benefitted from this programme one of them is a Medical Student from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka. He is to enjoy the scholarship until he graduates in another 5 or 6 years. The scholarship programme is non partisan and all you need to qualify is that you are resident in Abia, (State of origin is not relevant) and pass the required assessment. Application for next year’s scheme would soon open and I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity by visiting the website www.alexottifoundation.org for more details.

The summary of what we are saying is that any one who gives you fish may have done well but the better thing is to teach you how to fish. At the risk of sounding immodest, permit me to inform you that yours truly is a product of sound education. From very humble beginnings, no one would have imagined that one would rise to this level. Going to the University, a remote possibility, became a reality because one managed and denied oneself a whole lot and most importantly, supporting parents to make the load lighter. With hard work and God’s blessing, one was able to graduate ahead of one’s class and the rest is now history. If that can be my experience, it can also be your experience.

THE ALLEVIATIVE

There is no doubt that government can not employ everyone of you. The job of government is not to generate employment but to create the enabling environment for the private sector to thrive. It is only when the private sector is doing well that it can create jobs. Like we had noted before, our people are born entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship can only survive where there are objective conditions for it.

Sadly, the environment in Abia has become so hostile to the entrepreneur that initiatives have taken flight. With broken infrastructure, unhealthy and insecure environment, and general lack of interest in supporting the private sector, most of the youth have come to see government as the only sector to hang on to. Even in the public sector, salaries and allowances remain unpaid for several months.

When salaries are not paid, the economy gets depressed as consumption cannot happen without purchasing power. When consumption is impaired, production would also be impaired. Production can only improve if consumption is improved. With depressed production, what you have would be layoffs and closures, rather than job creation.

In a recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics, our state took the 24th position out of 36 States in internally generated revenues as at 2019. Lagos State which came 1st raised a total of about N400b in internally generated revenue and our dear Abia State generated less than N15b the same year. Just imagine what would have happened if we fixed Aba, the commercial and industrial hub of the state, nay South East. We could net in a conservative N50b in a year. What we need to fix Aba would be fractions of a few year’s possible internally generated revenue.

Note that the same applies to other towns including Umuahia, the state capital. My sense is that if we do not change our mindset and get our environment to be business-friendly, the whole talk about entrepreneurship will remain a pipe dream. This is because entrepreneurs are rational and will move to where the environment has been prepared to receive them. Put simply, businesses will flow to the environment where the cost of doing business is lower and ease of doing business is better in order to remain competitive and maximize profit.

CONCLUSION

It is our considered opinion that the future is here with us. Any promise of the youth being future leaders in a futuristic sense is deceptive. Those in our generation promoting primordial interests do so for their selfish interests.

The future is here and now. The youth must rise to the occasion and lend their voices to the call for good governance. They must participate in decision making about resource allocation and good governance. They should not be consigned to a situation where they are subject to being bribed because when they do, they trade away their future. They must do everything possible to acquire good education. Entrepreneurship is good but can only be more meaningful, if backed by good education.

Government needs to do its part to create the enabling environment for businesses to thrive. That is the part to sustainable empowerment. Any empowerment that revolves around handing cash or commodities to people is in the realm of bribery and should be collectively resisted. Most importantly it is a short term solution that can never be enduring.

TAKE BACK YOUR MACHETE AND GIVE ME BOOKS


OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

On Saturday November 7, 2020, I had the privilege of presenting a keynote address at Umuahia, Abia State on the occasion of the 2020 Diocesan Youth Day Celebration, organised by the Catholic Youth Organisation Of Nigeria. I crave your indulgence to share the speech with you today. I can only add that given the situation the Nigerian society finds itself today, there is a compelling reason to pay greater attention to the youth and the challenges of engaging them to greater relevance and development. This must start with a single minded focus on education. If we fail in this endeavour, it will be a very grave and regrettable outcome for us and our future.


“Education is the great engine of personal development. It is through education that the daughter of a peasant can become a doctor, that the son of a mine worker can become the head of the mine, that a child of farm workers can become the president of a great nation. It is what we make out of what we have, not what we are given, that separates one person from another.” Nelson Mandela

INTRODUCTION

I thank the organisers of this conference for finding me worthy to be the keynote speaker at the Diocesan Youth Day Celebration for this year, whose theme is “YOUNG MAN, I SAY TO YOU, ARISE”. It would not be out of place to contextualise the word “youth” for our purpose here. This is because the term has been used differently by different people. The United Nations defines youth as ‘young people between the ages of 15 and 24’. The Nigerian National Youth Policy, 2019 classified youth as ‘people between the ages of 15 and 29’. Whichever definition we choose, anybody 30 years and above cannot be genuinely considered as youth, even if they look youthful.


Then to the main issue: How do we handle this discussion? There are two ways of handling an assignment like this. The first is to say the usual perfunctory nice things about the youth, like, “the youth are leaders of tomorrow” or “any society that does not pay attention to the youth is doomed” and get an applause from the audience, share a meal with you and leave. While these statements may not be false, I also know that I would have added little or no value to the conference if I went in this direction. The second approach is to tell you the truth no matter how bitter it may sound and hope that “the truth shall set thee free”.


I have chosen the second option, and in that wise, I have also modified the topic I was assigned from “Entrepreneurship and Empowerment” to “Take Back Your Machete and Give Me Books”. We believe politicians have bastardised the term ‘empowerment’ and we intend to stay away from that word as much as possible. We also believe this topic is appropriate as people living in Abia can relate with it. Many people here will remember that in April 2015, just over 5 years ago, some politicians in this state armed some youths with machetes and deployed caskets in major junctions threatening hell and brimstone if their preferred candidate who actually lost the election was not declared winner. The rest like they say is now history.


THE NARRATIVE

God created man equal and before Him, everyone is equal. The youth should not accept any narrative that makes them look inferior to other humans. Yes, they may be young but not inferior. That someone has cornered public resources or is lucky to have a lot of resources at his disposal does not make him smarter or better than you. Time and chance happens to them all, says the holy scriptures. A situation where our youths succumb to picking crumbs or peanuts for less than dignifying roles in the society should be discouraged. A situation where you are recruited as thugs to rig elections and attack opponents reduce you individually and collectively. It is not just that the politicians regard and treat you as touts, but you aid them to cheat you and your hapless parents.

You worship them as if they were gods and do their bidding just for pittance. Anytime someone pays you to render less than noble services to him, you become a slave to him. You lose the moral right to complain when he is doing the wrong thing because he has settled you. You forget that the money they pay you is your money. You forget that when you collect N1000 to rig elections or sell your votes, it translates to N250 per year for the four years. Is that what you are worth? You forget that the children of the politicians are not here, yes, that includes mine.

They are not part of the touts. They cannot be thugs, even though that does not guarantee that they do not become dysfunctional. They cannot be used for elections. You don’t ask, why are we only relevant during election seasons? Yes, in between, you default to armed robbery, kidnapping and arson, given that you have weapons in your hands, but is it an enduring trade? You tend not to ask: why do they arm us with machetes and dangerous weapons every four years? What future do we have? For how long would we do these jobs?

THE ALTERNATIVE

It was Thomas Sowell who said “No one will really understand politics, until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems – of which getting elected and re-elected are number one and number two. Whatever is number three is far behind”. Are you still wondering why things are the way they are in Abia and Nigeria? It is therefore for you to “shine your eyes” and understand what is in your interest. Anyone who is interested in you will equip you to be successful. The equipment you need are not guns and machetes and dangerous weapons even if you have chosen hunting as your profession.

The time for “empowerment” by your “leaders” is over. The empowerment that ends up consigning you to menial jobs should stop. Some of you are still excited that politicians give you Keke Napep, Motorcycles, bicycles, sewing machines, frying pan and of course, money. Those are not what you need at this time. Like Nelson Mandela said above, what you need is Education. Quality Education! Yes, we Igbos are endowed with entrepreneurial spirit and there is nothing wrong with that. But a well educated entrepreneur will always do better than an illiterate one. It takes education to prepare your business in a way that it can attract capital and be bankable. It takes education to know that your revenue is not profit.

It takes education to know that you should separate the money of the business from your personal money. It takes education to understand that you should earn salaries even if you own the business rather than seeing the entire money of the business as your own. It takes education to know that you must keep proper books for your business. I am in a position to know as a former bank CEO. You may argue that some successful businessmen did not ‘break chalk’ but were successful nonetheless. While, you may be right, what is also right is that they may have been even more successful if they had education. So, even if you have a flair for business or building or manufacturing something, you must do all there is to get educated. And like our people say, “madness is better at a young age”, it is better to go to school when your mates are also in school.

This is not to say that if you didn’t have an opportunity at young age, you shouldn’t take advantage of adult education, but that option should be the exception rather than the rule. It is along these lines that some of us, rather than dash money out in form of “empowerment” have decided to impact people through our scholarship programme. Permit me to make reference to the Alex Otti Foundation (AOF) which has been supporting indigent students in paying fees and providing educational support to people living in Abia. Just this year alone, the AOF gave scholarships to 32 qualifying students and this scholarship will last for the duration of their studies in higher institutions.

Out of the 32 students who benefitted from this programme one of them is a Medical Student from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka. He is to enjoy the scholarship until he graduates in another 5 or 6 years. The scholarship programme is non partisan and all you need to qualify is that you are resident in Abia, (State of origin is not relevant) and pass the required assessment. Application for next year’s scheme would soon open and I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity by visiting the website www.alexottifoundation.org for more details.

The summary of what we are saying is that any one who gives you fish may have done well but the better thing is to teach you how to fish. At the risk of sounding immodest, permit me to inform you that yours truly is a product of sound education. From very humble beginnings, no one would have imagined that one would rise to this level. Going to the University, a remote possibility, became a reality because one managed and denied oneself a whole lot and most importantly, supporting parents to make the load lighter. With hard work and God’s blessing, one was able to graduate ahead of one’s class and the rest is now history. If that can be my experience, it can also be your experience.

THE ALLEVIATIVE

There is no doubt that government can not employ everyone of you. The job of government is not to generate employment but to create the enabling environment for the private sector to thrive. It is only when the private sector is doing well that it can create jobs. Like we had noted before, our people are born entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship can only survive where there are objective conditions for it.

Sadly, the environment in Abia has become so hostile to the entrepreneur that initiatives have taken flight. With broken infrastructure, unhealthy and insecure environment, and general lack of interest in supporting the private sector, most of the youth have come to see government as the only sector to hang on to. Even in the public sector, salaries and allowances remain unpaid for several months.

When salaries are not paid, the economy gets depressed as consumption cannot happen without purchasing power. When consumption is impaired, production would also be impaired. Production can only improve if consumption is improved. With depressed production, what you have would be layoffs and closures, rather than job creation.

In a recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics, our state took the 24th position out of 36 States in internally generated revenues as at 2019. Lagos State which came 1st raised a total of about N400b in internally generated revenue and our dear Abia State generated less than N15b the same year. Just imagine what would have happened if we fixed Aba, the commercial and industrial hub of the state, nay South East. We could net in a conservative N50b in a year. What we need to fix Aba would be fractions of a few year’s possible internally generated revenue.

Note that the same applies to other towns including Umuahia, the state capital. My sense is that if we do not change our mindset and get our environment to be business-friendly, the whole talk about entrepreneurship will remain a pipe dream. This is because entrepreneurs are rational and will move to where the environment has been prepared to receive them. Put simply, businesses will flow to the environment where the cost of doing business is lower and ease of doing business is better in order to remain competitive and maximize profit.

CONCLUSION

It is our considered opinion that the future is here with us. Any promise of the youth being future leaders in a futuristic sense is deceptive. Those in our generation promoting primordial interests do so for their selfish interests.

The future is here and now. The youth must rise to the occasion and lend their voices to the call for good governance. They must participate in decision making about resource allocation and good governance. They should not be consigned to a situation where they are subject to being bribed because when they do, they trade away their future. They must do everything possible to acquire good education. Entrepreneurship is good but can only be more meaningful, if backed by good education.

Government needs to do its part to create the enabling environment for businesses to thrive. That is the part to sustainable empowerment. Any empowerment that revolves around handing cash or commodities to people is in the realm of bribery and should be collectively resisted. Most importantly it is a short term solution that can never be enduring.

Ngozi Okonjo - Iweala and the World Trade Organisation.

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

“The single most exciting thing you encounter in government is competence, because it’s so rare” – Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1927-2003)

“Knowledge is great, Competence is great. But the combination of both encourages people to trust you and increases your powers of enchantment. And in this world, the combination is a breath of fresh air” – Guy Kawasaki

It is always refreshing to have Nigeria in the news for the right reasons. For several months now, our country has been the focus of intense media mention following the efforts of one of our very best to head the world’s highest body on trade, the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This eminent Nigerian is none other than Dr. Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (NOI). She was Nigeria’s Minister of Finance in the Obasanjo government and during the Jonathan administration, she was reappointed Minister Of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy. Before then, she spent most of her working life at the World Bank, where she rose to become Managing Director. She earned her first degree from Harvard University and both her MSC and PhD from Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, both in the USA. She is from Abia State like Yours Truly and I can say, without any equivocation, that she is one of the Abia citizens genuinely worried about the contradiction and confusion that the state has become lately. Abia is, without doubt, a state that has produced some of the best minds and hands in the country. Painfully, the same state is this time, dealing with a leadership deficit to the point that it is almost a failed state. Today, Abia is reeling in rot and decay. It is practically a broken system with a parlous state of infrastructure. I recall a story NOI once told about when she brought the former World Bank President Robert Zoellick to Aba. As they were riding in the car together, she was embarrassed when the man thundered, I can understand that people are poor here, but must the place be this dirty?” Sadly, the story, rather than getting better, has got worse, but that is a story for another day.

The year 2020 can actually be compartmentalised into specific events like Coronavirus, crude oil market meltdown, EndSARS and lately, the WTO. In each of these, things rose to such frenzy that most other things were drowned out. In the case of the WTO, this week is when it finally makes landfall.

For context setting, the whole issue about trade assumed importance as the outcome of the economic theory of specialisation and division of labour. To maximise global productivity, the concept of global trade gave rise to the General Agreement of Tariff and Trade (GATT) in 1946 after the Second World War. It was the GATT that gave rise to the WTO founded on January 1, 1995. The main objective of WTO was to ensure that rules of trade between member countries are respected and that trade was not only promoted amongst member countries, but is smooth, predictable and free of hiccups and bottlenecks. With its headquarters in Geneva, the WTO is made up of 164 member nations who account for about 98% of world trade. With a staff strength of over 600, the organisation spends about $215m annually. The WTO had operated without a Director General (DG) since September 1, 2020 following the resignation of the 6th DG Roberto Azevedo effective August 31, 2020, a year before the expiration of his tenure.

His exit necessitated the search for his replacement and by the close of nomination on July 8, 2020, eight candidates from eight countries were nominated. The elimination process started based on the procedure already established by the council for picking a new DG. By October 28, 2020, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala was selected as the the better of the candidates who would secure consensus from the member countries. This followed a voting process by member countries where she polled 104 out of the 164 votes. Her candidacy was backed by China, Europe, Africa, and many other members. She was to proceed to the General Council for endorsement by November 9, 2020. A formal announcement to that effect had been made by the Chair of the General Council, Ambassador David Walker. Celebration had started in Nigeria and elsewhere as ordinarily, the meeting of November 9, would have just been a formal endorsement and announcement of the appointment, but that was not going to be. The US was to drop a bombshell later that day, objecting to the candidacy of Okonjo Iweala in preference for her closest rival Ms. Yoo Myung-hee of South Korea. The US gave two reasons for it’s action. The first is that NOI didn’t have the required trade experience while the second was that the selection process didn’t follow laid down procedure. Were these the real reasons or were they a smokescreen?

Before going further, we would like to recall that this is not the first time that the USA is standing against the candidacy of NOI. In 2012, when she presented herself for the position of the Presidency of the World Bank, the Obama administration blocked her and instead supported the South Korean-born Dr. Jim Yong Kim, who eventually secured the position and served as the 12th World Bank President between 2012 and 2019.

Turning to the the US allegation that the organisation didn’t follow procedure in the selection process, this has been found to hold no water as the procedure for the selection of DG is established in a WTO document reference WT/L/509 dated January 20, 2003 and was on the contrary, followed, except for a clause which requires that the search of a new DG should commence 9 months before the expiration of the tenure of the incumbent. Given that the incumbent resigned before his tenure expired, this nomination couldn’t have started at the prescribed time. One also considers this, inconsequential when viewed alongside important issues central to choosing a credible candidate for the role. The other point raised by the US for not supporting Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s candidacy is that she is not experienced for the role. We consider this very preposterous and certainly deserves no response. Those not familiar with her are encouraged to access and read her resume to assure themselves that no other candidate bidding for the WTO job came to the table with better credentials. So what could be the real reasons for the US action? Different reasons have been adduced by different analysts. We shall explore these in turn.

With President Trump’s rhetoric and actions, some people have advanced the racist theory. It is not difficult to buy into this theory given the antecedents of Washington but then NOI acquired US citizenship last year, even though acquiring US citizenship does not remove anything from the fact that she is a black Nigerian and she is also being sponsored by Nigeria. Added to this is the gender issue which many people even though may not admit, are still sensitive to. Some people may not stomach the fact that she is not only black but was going to emerge as the first female to occupy that position. However, this theory falls flat on its face when once realises that the candidate the USA is backing is also female.

The US – China trade war has also been adduced as the unspoken reason why the US decided to withhold accent to her candidacy. The argument is that since Donald Trump became President, he has been in a running battle with China over what he refers to unfair trade practices by China. He argues that China deliberately holds its currency value down in order to dump cheap goods on America, thereby weakening productivity in America. He had also accused the WTO of being ineffective and would ordinarily not support any candidate supported by China. His fears are that NOI would push policies favourable to China at the detriment of US interest. Also, being that she is being sponsored by Nigeria which has increased its trade and business relations with China, she came out on the bad side of the US. Again, it is argued in some quarters that Nigeria is an insignificant member of the WTO and therefore has very little stake in the organisation and would not exert so much influence on what happens at the WTO.

Out of all the theories, the one that looks more plausible has to do with the battle between globalisation and protectionism. When people hear Trump scream, ‘America First’ or ‘Make America Great Again’, what he really means is that globalization has hurt America and the time has come for Protectionism. In the past, there had been increasing push towards globalisation and that is the whole reason behind the formation of the body in the first place. The world economy, however, seems to be headed towards more domestication and protectionism. So, rather than pushing globalisation, Trump has been pushing more of protectionism. Matters have not been helped by the Coronavirus Pandemic which disrupted global supply chain and exposed America and the the rest of the world to supply vulnerabilities. In fact, it was only China that managed to keep its factories open. So some parts of the world is rethinking the globalisation strategy. Based on her antecedents, NOI is seen to be a candidate that would push more globalisation than protectionism. The US cannot afford to take the risk. In fact, the WTO seems to have been a toothless bulldog in the recent times because the interests of member nations do not seem to align on the issue of globalisation. Instead of common trade agreements that will harmonise tariffs, what is seen are regional and bilateral agreements that seem to stand in contradiction with the WTO. The US seems to trust the South Korean candidate more as she had done things in the past that seem to push protectionism. The US seems to also be safer with her because of the position of her country which is in complete alignment with its interest. Supporting her against a popular candidate like Okonjo Iweala would give the US some advantage in that she would be expected to be very loyal to the US without which, she wouldn’t have emerged.

Given the scenario above, what are the options open to Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala?. The first is for Nigeria, leading Africa, to get Ms. Yoo Myung-hee to withdraw from the race. This cause of action is what is recommended in the procedures manual cited above. It specifically requires that contending candidates withdraw at each stage they realise that they cannot attract consensus. However, expecting her to withdraw is looking far fetched as the day draws near. Besides, the fact that a member like the powerful USA is behind her is enough moral booster for her and it would be a tough order for her to just withdraw. Nevertheless, there is enough South Korean interest to guarantee by the African lobby team to get a concession from them and their candidate.

The next option is for the US to withdraw her support for Ms. Myung-hee and move same to NOI. This can happen if sufficient pressure is brought to bear on the US or in the event that Trump loses the November 3 election to Joe Biden. Some pundits have argued that even if Trump loses, there is no guarantee that Biden would not continue with the present position of the US as his silence may mean that he does not disagree with Trump on this matter.

The sure direction is that November 9 would come. On that day NOI would be presented as the candidate that is more likely to have a consensus built around her. If any of the above considered scenarios do not play out, the US will definitely make an attempt to block it. When all else fails, the General Council would be left with the only option of dividing the house and activating clause 20 of the Procedures document which calls for voting. It is important to note that in its 25 year history, this clause has never been activated and no one has been selected without consensus. The clause states that in the unlikely event that this clause is activated, it should not be seen as a precedent, but as a last resort. If this happens, Dr. Okonjo Iweala will win majority of the votes, all things being equal. However, there may be likely backlash amongst which may be that the US and some of its allies may pull out of the WTO. This is a scenario that Trump has no qualms about. After all, he had the boldness to pull out of the World Health Organisation (WHO), during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Should this happen, it would leave a big dent on the organisation that may eventually sound the death knell on WTO, except if it is properly and delicately managed.

Anyhow it pans out, we salute the courage and tenacity of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala. She is a true Nigerian heroine. She has done very well. Even if at the end of the day, she does not succeed in getting the job, she has fought the good fight. She stood where others failed. She has made every African, Nigerian and woman very proud. We wish her success as we approach November 9. Well done Ada Ukwu. One final word though is that while you fight for the global office, spare a thought for your dear state, Abia. The proverbial grieving bird is still crying.

End SARS Protest: Otti Appeals for Peaceful Resolution

A financial expert and member of the All Progressives Congress in Abia state, Dr. Alex Otti, OFR has sent a passionate appeal to youths protesting against Police brutality in the country to please halt the ongoing protest and consider approaching the negotiation table, especially now that governments at all levels have signalled their willingness to negotiate with the protesters in a bid to find a lasting solution to the their grievances.

Dr. Otti regretted that government authorities failed for years to intervene to stop those acts of violence and brutality perpetrated against innocent Nigerians by security agents for too long, which obviously culminated in the present anger and frustration being expressed by the protesters, and made it clear that peaceful protest by citizens is one of the universally recognized democratic rights which cannot be taken away from citizens.

He condemned in unequivocal terms the shooting of unarmed and defenseless protesters by security agencies. According to him, there is no justification whatsoever, to respond to peaceful protest with live ammunition. He called on the Federal government to fish out all those involved in the shooting and prosecute them.

He reminded the protesters that they have made a resounding and reverberating statement which has been applauded by citizens from within and outside the country but maintained that Nigeria's economy is so fragile that if the protest becomes protracted, it could affect ordinary citizens very negatively since majority of them rely on their daily earnings to eke out a living, especially when citizens are also struggling to come out of the health and economic crisis created by the Coronavirus pandemic.

He also condemned the alleged destruction and looting of private and public institutions by some persons in different cities, describing it as being inconsistent with the philosophy behind the protest. According to him "my understanding is that the protest was not initiated to unleash violence against fellow citizens, but to stop the ones being perpetrated by security agents” hence the need for protesters to conduct themselves with decorum and dignity so that they would not end up destroying institutions from which many citizens, including the youths earn a living, thereby losing the massive support of ordinary citizens.

The ex bank Chief called on government to take very urgent and decisive measures to ensure a successful dialogue and provide adequate compensation for the families of fallen citizens. He prayed for the repose of the souls of those who lost their lives in this incident while wishing the wounded, quick recovery.


Signed

Ferdinand Ekeoma
Special Adviser to
Dr. Alex Otti on
Media/Publicity.
22/10/2020.

Odoemene: A Good Man is Gone

OUTSIDE THE BOX WITH ALEX OTTI

“His life was gentle; and the elements so mixed in him, that Nature might stand up and say to all the world, THIS WAS A MAN!” – William Shakespeare, ‘Julius Caeser’

The family is the nucleus of every society. Once the family falls apart, the rot washes into the larger society and the ills that follow lead to total breakdown and chaos. When you want to know how stable a nation is, start with its tiniest constituent, which is the family. A strong nation begins with a strong family structure. Similarly, leadership is important at every tier of society, beginning from the nuclear family structure. As they say in Latin, ‘minimis fidelis’ – be faithful in little things. It is the ability to manage the seemingly small things that lead to success in managing the complex ones. When societies are made up of families that have strong leaders, you can rest assured that such societies will meet any challenge that is thrown at them. Strong family values are consistent with strong societal values.

It was sometime in 1991, the year Madonna released the hit song, ‘Justify My Love’, and Whitney Houston also came with her ‘All The Man That I Need’. Love, obviously, was in the air for me. I had met my wife to be and as I quickly found out, she was living under some man’s roof. As a matter of fact, she was his first daughter and the father/daughter love between them was very strong. I was able to manoeuvre and meet her mother after numerous entreaties. When her mother eventually met me, she received me well but said nothing committing. Clearly, she had no say in these kinds of matters. It was the sole decision of her husband, the head of the household. Somehow, the meeting with the father was going to be a very difficult one as everyone was afraid of him, being a no-nonsense man and a strict disciplinarian of the Old School extraction. Attempts to send emissaries failed as we were told he was not ready to entertain this discussion. His stance was based on the fact that his daughter had just turned 21 and was, in his conviction, too young to get into marriage.

Not fazed by the challenge, I dug deep and hatched out a plan. I had to mobilise my uncle to lead me to meet the man, during one of the weekends he came home to Lagos. At that time, he was working out of Port Harcourt while the family settled in Lagos. Surprisingly, on the appointed day, as I fidgeted and sweated in the course of the meeting, he was relaxed and very friendly. I was wondering if we were actually meeting the right person. I naturally left the talking to my uncle who deftly handled the situation with aplomb. He presented the drinks and proceeded to inform him of the reason for our visit. Two years later, by October 1, 1993 precisely, we became husband and wife. The rest has now become history.

Chief (Sir) Cosmas Ajonu John Odoemene (CAJ like was fondly called), my beloved father in law, was a great man. He was born on October17, 1939 to a family of teachers. He was determined to become a priest early in his life and enrolled in St. Peter Claver’s Seminary, Okpala in the present-day Imo State. It was at that school that he obtained his secondary school certificate in 1960. He subsequently proceeded to Biggard Memorial Seminary, Enugu in 1962 in pursuit of his dream of being a clergyman. As providence would have it, after his A-level education, circumstances made him change course from being a priest and he enrolled as a teacher, thus following in his father’s footstep.

He was in this vocation until the outbreak of the civil war. At the end of the war, he proceeded to study Geography at the University of Lagos. Funds were in short supply for the young man but being a very hardworking individual, he was able to pay his fees through the University by doubling as a book seller in his spare time. Those who knew him at that time revealed that quickly, his room turned into a mini bookshop. He graduated with a Bachelor’s degree and joined the then Department of Customs and Excise, now the Nigerian Customs Service. His career took him to several parts of Nigeria and the world.

He combined his job with the pursuit of higher education and subsequently earned a Master’s degree from the same University of Lagos. He enrolled in a PHD programme but was unable to complete it owing to commitments of work which took him outside Lagos frequently and of course the family. An account which everyone who knew him in his career continues to give is that he was a very upright and honest in discharging his duties. He was not attracted to filthy lucre and lived a simple and decent life all through.

Even with the demands of his career, he remained a family man. He had 8 children and he ensured that all of them were not only well educated to post graduate levels but that each had a career to pursue. The last of his children is currently pursuing a PHD programme in the USA. At the last count, there were 21 grandchildren all to his credit. The matriarch of the house and his wife of 53 years, stood by him and settled with the children in Lagos as Chief Odoemene moved from one location to another as duty demanded. He was later to join her in Lagos when he retired from Service as Comptroller of Customs, Bayelsa State in 1999.

Sir Odoemena was a devoted Christian and practised his catholic faith till the last day. He belonged to the St. Joseph’s Society and participated in most activities of the church. The high point of his service to the church community was when he was inaugurated as a fourth degree Knight of St. Mulumba by the Catholic Church in 2003. He was actively involved in the service of the community. He was highly revered in his community and was recognised as an Ezeji. He was conferred with several Chieftaincy titles, amongst which was “Ugbo Na Akwo Aku” of Nguru Mbaise. He supported a lot of families and helped indigent children by putting them in school and paying their fees.

He remained an intellectual, even while in uniform as he was at some point in charge of Research and Planning of the Nigerian Custom Service. Before he passed, he had published two books and a number of research papers and reports.

My father in law and I had a special relationship especially after he took over the role of being a father to me from the moment I lost my biological father in 1994. There was hardly any major decision that I needed to take that I would not run by him, either to get his opinion or where necessary, his consent.

When about three years ago he became ill, we spared no effort in ensuring that he had the best medical care available. He recovered quite remarkably and was managing the situation of his health very well. With the coronavirus, I made efforts to see him one of the weekends but shelved the idea, convincing myself that being in the vulnerable bracket, I should wait for the pandemic to be over. Little did I know that our meeting wasn’t going to be. To my consternation, death was lurking around in the corner, such that when that call came by 2am Monday May 25, I was sure that he was going to be alright. Two hours later, another call came from the hospital that he had passed on.

I have no doubt that it was the way that God had predestined it. But we would have loved to stay together and bid him farewell before he embarked on this long but irreversible trip. Nevertheless, we cannot question God. We consider ourselves very privileged and are indeed very grateful to God almighty for giving us this rare human being as a father, father in law, and grandfather. It is a rare honour to have shared our world with him. We are in no doubt that he will rise again on that resurrection morning when the trumpet shall sound. We shall meet him again to part no more. Until then, we bid you farewell Papa. Good night Ugbo Na Akwo Aku!. It is well with your soul.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/10/19/odoemene-a-good-man-is-gone/

Nigeria at 60: What Has Colonialism Got to Do With it?

ALEX OTTI OUTSIDE THE BOX alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

The reason your life stays the same is because you think everyone else is the problem. Stop pointing fingers and placing blame on others. Your life can only change to the degree that you accept responsibility for it

–Steve Maraboli


Nigeria turned 60 last Thursday, 1st October 2020. While the few born on that same date sixty years earlier, and lucky enough to secure some of the scarce jobs in Nigeria, were celebrating their retirement, the debate was just beginning on whether the nation was finally mature or was still a toddler. Simply put, were Nigeria a human being, and had been enrolled in its civil service, it should be qualified for pension by now. Nevertheless, 60 is a milestone birthday which is worth celebrating. Many people are not eager to share in the reveling and it is within their right to disagree. There is widespread pain and suffering in the land. If, as is often said, it is all about the economy then there is no reason for the people to rejoice. The economy has not been in a worse shape for a long time. Leadership seems to have lately taken refuge in the global pandemic and the drop in oil prices but we all know that over the six decades, it has been anything but visionary. There is therefore, enough reason for anyone to stay home and not join in the Independence celebratory party.

Several attempts have been made to explain what is wrong with this adult, which ordinarily qualifies to be admitted into the league of Senior Citizens, but which sadly still has its bum in the kindergarten creche. The explanation for this retarded growth which we find most intriguing is the one that places practically all the blame on British colonialists who granted Nigeria Independence in 1960. The “British-colonialism-did-it” school of thought seems to be gaining currency once again, particularly with the recent separatist agitations aimed at the dismemberment of the country. It is usual to hear comments about the creation of the “contraption” called Nigeria in 1914, which emerged after the Northern and Southern Protectorates were merged. This argument goes further to say that the crafty oyibo knew that the union was going to be dysfunctional as the people were not the same in terms of weather, culture, tribe, religion and world view. Sooner or later, therefore, the union would fall apart as they could not live together in peace. These theorists insist that the only reason the colonialists set up this system that they knew would collapse someday was for their own selfish interests. In fact, some argue that the whole essence of the union was to set the stage for the eventual crisis which would give them an excuse to stage a come-back on the pretence that the new country could not govern itself. These and other arguments may sound plausible on the face of it.

When we take a deep look into history, we will find out that Nigeria’s problems as a nation, started even before independence. In fact, it is reported that after the struggle to end colonial rule had been won and the three most prominent leaders from the North, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Chief Obafemi Awolowo from the West and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe from the East, went to London to collect the “paraphernalia” of independence, the entire trip was marked by bickering, and cloak and dagger manoeuvres. They reportedly bickered all through – on their way to the place, at the place and even after leaving the place. If we are to advance the conspiracy theory that implicates the British, one would want to believe that it was the colonial authorities that set up the bickering on that day in 1960. The white men had just started their mischief. It was them who made sure that we had a false start leading up to accusations and counter accusations of corruption in the first republic. They were the ones that set up the military and the officers were recruited and trained by them. It was therefore understandable that the colonialists would manipulate the military to stage the first military coup on January 15, 1966, barely 5 years and 3 months after Independence. The military had been trained to kill by the colonialists so they shot and killed many of the leaders of that time, again at the behest of the colonial masters.

Still not done with their mischief, they masterminded the installation of the first military Head of State, General Aguiyi Ironsi. To ensure that there was confusion everywhere, they again manipulated a section of the military who organised a counter-coup assassinating their colleagues and installing another military Head of State. As two-faced traitors, the colonialists engineered disagreement and subsequent killing of one section of the country by the other and the altercations and pogrom that resulted in the Nigerian civil war. Their interest in this war was to sell their arms to the stronger side and have access to the natural resources of the country. They assured the stronger side that the war would end in a matter of weeks and everything would then return to normalcy.

As it turned out, the war lasted for almost three years and millions of our people perished with it. Five years after the civil war, they again masterminded another coup and a change of government, and a year later, yet another military putsch that threw up one military general after another who were loyal to the ever conniving oyibo. When the country insisted on having democratic rule, they reluctantly agreed but being their usual mischievous selves, they manipulated the process that threw up their preferred candidates who eventually assumed positions of leadership. When it was looking like the Shagari government did not have their loyalty any more, they sponsored yet another coup that terminated the Second Republic and installed another Military General who they were to discover only later, was not going to do all their biddings.

They then corrected this error of judgement by quickly terminating his government and bringing in General Babangida, with his toothy smile and political skills that out-rivaled that of any civilian politician. When Babangida was to leave, they realised that Abiola was going to win and not willing to have any of that, they ensured that the arrangement was truncated. They influenced the take-over of government by an interim government. And just like its name implied, that government was short lived and General Abacha was invited to supplant it. When they fell out with Abacha, they quickly arranged the forbidden apple and bumped him off in the infamous ‘divine intervention’ episode.

Enter Abdulsalami Abubakar who was there just for a year and handed over to Obasanjo for his second stint at the office, who this time had dropped his Khaki. He was the President for two terms and handed over to Yaradua who died in office. The conspiracy theorists would argue that the set up knew that Yaradua would not last in office and had arranged for Jonathan to succeed him. By the time Jonathan was completing his first term they had planned for Buhari to stage a comeback and here we are, everything planned and executed by the imperialists, first and foremost for their interests which is over and above everything.

Let us even for a moment believe that all these are correct. One would want to ask a few questions. Assuming the British installed their preferred leadership on us, how about followership? Did they also manipulate the followership? How come most of us do not ask questions? How come most of us have joined the clapping and ‘follow follow’ gang? Who prevented us from participating and showing interest in governance? How many of us will stand up to be counted amongst courageous and outspoken citizens, who opposed such conspiracy, if it really was?

As it is said, we are often the last to criticise ourselves whenever we are looking for excuses. Pray let us ask a few penetrating questions? What has happened to our education? How come the standard of education in this country has fallen to such ridiculous level that the top 10 universities in Nigeria are ranked between 1233 and 3182 in the world? And in Africa, we are trounced by South Africa whose 6 universities came out in top ten, in fact South African universities occupy first 4 positions. Two universities in Egypt, one each from Uganda and Algeria made it to the top 10. Two Nigerian universities managed to come in at No.5 and No. 10. Was South Africa not colonised and even much longer than Nigeria? Why have we refused to fund education properly? Why are we not worried about the quality and standard of education which has continued to decline at a precipitous and shameful rate? For many of us who schooled in Nigeria, please ask yourself when last you visited your alma mater. This question is more for those who left school some decades ago. Were you proud of the school you attended? Secondary and primary education in the country are not left out of the rot. Should it then be said that our educational system was set up to fail so that we would send our children and wards to be educated in the UK? Again, who created and armed the bandits harassing the entire country today?

Do we have better stories to tell about our health care delivery system? Until recently when the coronavirus pandemic grounded all of us, weren’t most of us trooping abroad for quality health care? What happened in this sector then? Was it also the Colonialists that asked us not to fund or pay attention to the health of all of us? In the electricity sector, did someone ask us to watch our generation capacity decline from our installed capacity of 12,500 megawatts to an average capacity of about 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts? Did we need to be told that the less the electricity we generated, the lower the level of productivity in the country? Didn’t we know that no serious industrialisation will take place when we are unable to fix our power sector? How about our ability to refine petroleum products? Is it colonialism that made our four refineries to operate at less than 20% of installed capacity in the last decade or more? Is it of any concern to us that even though we produce and export crude, our local demand of petroleum products has to be met by imports? How do the imports benefit the colonialists? Who ordered the de-industrialisation of the country where most of the companies involved in local production of goods and services have either been left to decay, relocate, or simply die? When the country was littered with industries, were the workers from the UK or were they employing Nigerians?

Did anyone stop us from diversifying our economy given all the human and material resources this country has? Who asked us to place all our attention on crude oil? Why didn’t we realise that oil prices like any other product goes up and down and when we found out what did we do in sixty years? Was it the imperialists who forced us to be dependent on imports from every part of the world and assuming they did, how come we didn’t realise that the more we imported without commensurate exports, the more pressure we put on the small foreign exchange that we earned? Who taught us how to steal? Granted that prebendalism has been in this country for long, how come we have graduated to what someone described as “chopping Nama and chopping Aboki”? Can we actually explain the level of corruption in this country in virtually all the sectors such that almost everything and everybody now has a cost price?

The summary question to us is did the colonial masters manipulate our brains away? Did they hypnotise us such that we can’t think and proffer solutions to our domestic problems? The reality of the situation is that we have always had the opportunity of fixing our dear country. We have chosen to do the contrary. And we are looking for whom to blame. We could justify those excuses in the sixties, seventies and probably eighties. We read all the books, like “How Europe Underdeveloped Africa”, “The Wretched Of The Earth” and so on. They may have made sense then, but we cannot continue to plead colonialism in 2020. Even where all the ills were possible to be traced to colonialism, there is a saying in my place that as a parent whose infant child fell asleep in your arms, you are free to lay him down in the position that pleases you but the child is also free to change to the position that pleases him. Of course, that presupposes that the child wakes up, knows the comfortable position and is able to change positions. Our problem is that the country has remained an infant that has refused to wake up or grow up, has refused to pay attention to the comfortable position to lie and those who know, have refused to lift a finger because of selfishness, lack of courage and lack of patriotism.

We should therefore, accept responsibility for the parlous state of our nation and society. And that is All of us! Lest I forget, happy 60th independence anniversary fellow Nigerians.

Nigeria At 60: We Must Review Our Strategy to Get to Our Destination-Alex Otti.

A financial expert and member of the All Progressives Congress in Abia State, Dr. Alex Otti (OFR) has felicitated with the government and people of Ngeria on the occasion of Nigeria's 60th Independence Anniversary Celebration.

In a release made available to the press, Otti described Nigeria's existence as an independent nation for 60 years now as a milestone that's worthy of celebration, but regretted that the country has for a long time been bedeviled by too many socio-political and economic challenges too numerous and pronounced to be associated with such a nation with rich history and all round endowments.

He frowned at a situation where sectional, religious and other trivial considerations still dominate our national discourse and general engagements, especially in sensitive leadership considerations to the extent that critical issues and challenges begging for urgent attention are relegated to the background while our development indices continue to go south,to the detriment of the people.

Otti insisted that for Nigeria to overcome the numerous stormy challenges staring her in the face, leaders at all levels must review their leadership strategies and take a cue from other nations, especially those countries that once trailed Nigeria, but who have through the dint of hard work and visionary leadership overtaken Nigeria in all facets of development, so that the country could steer off the storms of political instability and economic underdevelopment, and begin a new process of national rediscovery that could see the welfare of Nigerians become top priority in all leadership considerations.

He congratulated the people of his home state of Abia for their endless peaceful disposition, resilience and consistent demand for good governance, and enjoined all not to lose hope, assuring that consistent progressive push beyond political, religious and sectional platforms is what is required to herald an Abia that would meet the vision of Abia founding fathers, and desires of ordinary men and women of Abia.

The ex bank Chief restated his call on Abia state government to prioritise the welfare of workers, pensioners and youths as an economic strategy to rejig the economy of the state and erase the present atmosphere of gloom and despondency created by harsh government policies and programs.

Finally, Dr. Otti assured Abians that he would continue on the progressive path of lending his voice and taking very practical and decisive actions in alliance with well-meaning Abia sons and daughters with the utmost desire to develop the state, improve the welfare of Abians and ensure that God takes his pride of place in God's Own State.

Signed

Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant to
Dr. Alex Otti
01/10/2020.

Otti Lauds APC State Leadership, Calls for Support at All Levels.

A financial expert and member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Alex Otti, OFR has commended the state leadership of APC for embarking on the tour of the 17 local government areas of the state as part of its efforts to advance the unity, progress, and growth of the party at all levels.

In a release made available to news men, Otti commended the Hon. Donatus Nwankpa- led State Working Committee for embarking on the LGA tour which he described as timely and well thought out, expressing confidence that such a tour would enable the leadership of the party take stock of latest developments in the party at all levels, especially now that thousands of new entrants are joining the party in different LGAs of the state.

The financial expert called on party faithfuls to give the leadership of the party at all levels the necessary support required in the onerous task of building a true democratic party that would be the envy of other political parties, assuring that he would at all times join hands with other progressives in demanding for responsible and people-oriented governance in Abia state.

Finally, the ex bank Chief commended the APC led federal government for releasing funds for the completion of reconstruction work going on,on the Umuahia-Ohafia federal road, describing the gesture as a timely intervention that would go a long way in ameliorating the sufferings of the people of the area while impacting positively on economic activities in the state.
He called on the contractors in charge of the project to ensure that the quality of job to be done would be of the best standard that can stand the test of time because of the strategic importance of the road.

Signed:
Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant to
Dr. Alex Otti
25/09/2020.

Biafra: The Horrors of War, A Review
BY ALEX OTTI

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it

– George Santayana 1863 – 1952

Let’s take you on a journey down memory lane. Imagine a youngster, born in Kano but whose parents are from the Eastern part of the country. Brought up as a Northern Nigerian kid, he had come to regard Kano as his home. His parents lived and worked in Kano. He started school in Kano and made a lot of friends there. For these young happy Nigerian kids, Kano was home. They spoke fluent Hausa and there was no difference between them and any Kano ‘indigene’. Our subject would join his parents to visit their village, Awka, once in a year during the Yuletide and return to Kano as soon as the ceremonies were over.

He could recall that as a five-year-old, a white colonial officer, in company of two policemen had shown up in their house, seeking to arrest his father who was then a journalist. His father’s alleged crime was writing an editorial critical of the British colonial government. Luckily, his father was away to Lagos on official assignment. On sighting the intruders, his mother refused to open the door, explaining that the man of the house was not at home. The intruders would take no such explanation and proceeded to break open the door and force their way in. His mother was so terrified as the white man and his obedient followers went from room to room in search of his father who they suspected was hiding somewhere in the house. The five-year-old boy was so enraged with the invasion that he grabbed the trousers of the white man with his teeth and began to tear at it. The terrified white man took to his heels and abandoned the house hurriedly. He couldn’t understand the kind of courage that this young boy had to make him descend on him so violently. He needed to make a quick exit before something more menacing followed!

This youngster was not done with courageous feats. He had tried convincing his parents that he wanted to be enrolled in elementary school, but they would not pay heed to him as he was, in their view, not yet up to school age. In those days, the rule was that if your hand, placed over your head, could not touch your ear, you were deemed not old enough to start school. However, one day, without his parents’ consent, he just showed up in school. The headmaster promptly sent him back for the same reason that he was not up to school age. Undeterred, the next day, he showed up again, this time sobbing and creating quite a scene in the headmaster’s office. The headmaster caved in and admitted him. He thus started school before his mates and remained steps ahead of his peers up till this moment.

Life in Kano seemed to be going well until January 15, 1966. A military coup had been staged by a group of officers from several parts of the country and were led by two brilliant Sandhurst-trained officers, Majors Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and Emmanuel Ifeajuna. A few coincidences seemed to justify the argument that the insurrection was ethnically motivated. First, the coup leaders were of Igbo extraction and the killings seemed to be sectional as no senior Igbo military or political officer was killed in the coup. Secondly, the man who eventually emerged as the Head of State following the coup, was of Igbo extraction. It was not important that he had in fact, been the one who led the group that quashed the coup. The impending national conflagration was palpable and our subject’s father, being a notable personality in the country, was among those who made attempts to tone down the impending crisis by holding meetings with different groups both in Kano and other parts of the country. At the end, his father was detailed to lead a delegation to Lagos to meet the then Head Of State, Gen. Ironsi to brief and advise him on the realities facing the country and how to he could deflect the impending doom. Gen. Ironsi, a no-nonsense military man, would object to him speaking to him in Igbo language and also object to the request that the meeting be held without the presence of his ADC, Captain Sanni Bello. As the delegation mounted further pressure, Gen. Ironsi thundered, “that man is my ADC. He stays here and you must speak in English language or nothing…. I am a Nigerian! With me, there is no Yoruba, there is no Hausa. We are all one and the same. Please speak!”

Thus deflated, the visitors left without delivering the actual message they had brought along. Not long after, precisely on July 29, 1966, there was the counter coup, where Ironsi and many other military officers, mainly of Igbo extraction, were assassinated. There were reportedly two components of the coup. One led by Lt. Col. Yakubu Gowon and the other led by Major Murtala Muhammed. Because the January coup was led by two soldiers of Igbo extraction, some people tagged it an Igbo coup and this drove the execution of the ‘revenge coup’ in which Ironsi himself was killed. A careful review of the circumstances surrounding the coup raises strong questions as to whether it was really an ‘Igbo coup’. For instance, out of the 14 key players in that coup, 2 were Igbo, 4 were Yoruba, 5 were Northerners and 3 were from the Southern minorities of Urhobo, Ishan, and Ijaw extraction. The leader of the coup, Nzeogwu, was known to be a radical who had no patience with ethnic nor religious sentiments, but just a left-wing ideologue. Moreover, he was widely known as ‘Kaduna Nzeogwu’, until the coup took place. Besides, the reasons for the coup are already well known and had nothing to do with ethnic chauvinism.

The young man was still in Kano then and was mortally terrified as his Northern friends whom he had had great and brotherly relationships with, began either avoiding him or outrightly referring to him as a traitor. They had been made to believe that his people of Igbo extraction, had been involved in eliminating Northerners and therefore, revenge loomed in the air. He insists that the January 1966 coup as corroborated by prominent witnesses and participants, including Wole Soyinka and Olusegun Obasanjo, was not ethnic based but a few elements of the Hausa/Fulani extraction used their large numbers in the army and for sectional reasons, wreaked a catastrophic holocaust, killing Ironsi and exterminating many Igbo people which eventually set the stage for the nightmarish pogrom that culminated in the Nigeria/Biafra Civil War. He points out that, “for the 3 Hausa politicians and 4 army officers killed in the so called “Igbo Coup” of January 1966, over 200 soldiers of Eastern origin were killed in the revenge coup and another 50,000 civilians were massacred all over Northern Nigeria. He had harsh words for the people around the world who were silent as over 3 million Igbo people perished in the ensuing war; the British who were complicit; Russia which provided aerial support to the oppressors; and America which paid little attention.

As the pogrom intensified, he had to flee Kano with his mother and siblings in a long unforgettable train ride to Enugu from where they made it to their home town in Awka.

The train was forcefully stopped in Markurdi by heavily armed Northern soldiers who disembarked all adult males ostensibly in search of fleeing Igbo Soldiers. Having ensured that all the men, some of them traveling with their wives and children, had been offloaded, they allowed the train to continue with the journey while the men were lined up and summarily executed. A full-fledged war had started. As he put it, most wars are either for freedom or for domination and this war was not different. According to him, if Biafra was allowed to succeed, it would have been one of the richest and most powerful countries in the world as it housed most of the oil deposit in the country, together with some of its best brains. He was of the opinion that the war which by the way, was senseless, was triggered by the North for the sole purpose of controlling the oil from Biafraland. He regretted that the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who had earlier boasted that the Yoruba would also secede once Biafra announced its secession, buckled and rather joined the North to pummel Biafra. As the minister of Finance, Chief Awolowo was quoted as saying that “all is fair in war, and starvation is one of the weapons of war. I don’t see why we should feed our enemies fat in order for them to fight harder’.

Having relocated to Awka, he started a new life in his village, but this was again short lived as the theatre of war moved close. He had to abandon Awka with his parents and siblings to a safer location. He narrated a touching story of how his 85-year old grandmother refused to leave with them and was subsequently brutally murdered by the Nigerian soldiers who invaded the town a few days later and set her house on fire with the old woman inside. They subsequently became refugees in Orlu, living in tents mounted in open fields. Hunger and starvation, which inevitably were major instruments of that war, were difficult to adapt to. Days on end, Russian mercenary jets, flown by Egyptian pilots, would drop bombs on civilian targets, wiping out everything in sight. Rather than break the spirit of the people, the Biafrans were so united and determined to fight to the last man. In his words, one thing that stood the Biafrans out and probably was responsible for their survival, was the courageous and brave attitude of the people.

He offered himself several times for enlistment in the Biafran Army and was expectedly rejected on account of young age. One fateful day, he was accosted by Biafran soldiers in Orlu in search of cowards who were fleeing from joining the army. They insisted he must be about 19 because of his frame and height. While those around were protesting that he was not of age, he was eager to join them and was glad to be conscripted. That marked the beginning of his journey to Umuahia to undergo a two-week training programme as an army recruit, even at the tender age of 13! Thereafter, he was given a gun and some bullets and sent to the war front. He fought tirelessly and was deployed to different units of the Biafran army. His schedule included getting intelligence information about the enemy which he did dutifully. As he reflected on the activities of that time, he realised how sophisticated Biafra was. The training, though short, was excellent. “They made their own bombs and rifles, refined their own crude oil, built their own Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) and patrol boats and converted ordinary planes to fighter jets- all done without the requisite tools and materials”

Early in 1970, the Nigerian side got very large consignments of ammunition from Great Britain and Russia and started a ferocious attack on Biafran soldiers and civilians.

Biafran soldiers were being overpowered and the system was collapsing. The Biafran Head of State, General Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, had to go on exile to Abidjan. On January 12, 1970, Major General Philip Effiong, Chief of Staff of Biafra, surrendered and that marked the official end of the war. Our subject subsequently made his way back to Awka with the scars of the war remaining with him till this day. He had this to say “From the day that this war ended until today, the Nigerian State has become a wasted opportunity without any bright future. It has become a kleptocratic state that is divisively dysfunctional. Its political structure is not inclusive and devoid of equality for all component units. Nigeria now lacks equitable distribution of power, resources, and accountability, and it’s being populated by incompetent leadership and tyrannical leaders. Contextualising, this country Nigeria …exposes the level of evil, inequality, monstrous corruption, religious and tribal bigotry and violence and above all, the adulation of envy and hatred for the Igbo.” He went further to state that unless the country made sacrifices and pursued a new ethic of leadership and followership devoid of tribalism and religion and institutes good governance founded on truth, justice, equity and fairness, the prevalence of greed, hate, avarice and narcissism would engender another civil war which might be more devastating and destructive than the last one. He went further, “after fighting a war it claimed was to reunite all the people under one country, the extent of sectional fragmentation and ethnic agitation have become alarming”. He concluded by calling for the restructuring of the country to achieve true federalism and devolution of powers as brilliantly espoused in the 2014 National Conference, where he participated actively.

I have no doubt that you would, by now, be wondering who this youngster, that we have been referring to is. Well, the man is no longer that young as he is now over 60. His name is Dr. Okey Anueyiagu. He is my friend and my brother, blessed with so much cerebral power and a brilliant pen, in the mould of his famous father. He has several other talents that make him a unique Nigerian in the midst of mediocrity and despondence.

Okey has just published a book, titled “Biafra, The Horrors Of War: The Story of A Child Soldier”, and it is to this work that we are dedicating this column today. This 277-page book is written in simple English and packaged well for your reading pleasure. What we have done here is to give our readers, a sneak peep into the book, which I consider a must-read for anyone who wants to learn about the civil war from the perspective of an active participant. You would do yourself great injustice if you don’t get a copy to read.

PRESS RELEASE

Otti Felicitates With Abians As State Clocks 29.

A financial expert and Chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, Dr. Alex Otti (OFR) has felicitated with the good people of Abia State on the occasion of the 29th anniversary celebration of our dear state of Abia.

In a release made available to the press, Dr. Otti disclosed that 29 years is a long journey in the life of a people, and therefore encouraged Abians to be happy and grateful to God for the gift of life, and for the enablement to weather all sociopolitical and economic storms that have threatened humanity in recent times.

He specifically expressed joy that the Coronavirus pandemic did not wreak the kind of havoc earlier feared in Abia, and reminded Abians that the world is yet to overcome the threat and danger posed by the virus hence the need for all to continue to observe all safety measures recommended by experts in order to stay alive.

According to Dr. Otti "It's gratifying to note that in spite of the daunting challenges confronting the people since the creation of the state 29 years ago, Abians of all walks of life have shown rare audacity and great determination to collectively forge ahead as one people in their quest to herald a democratic, peaceful, and economically prosperous state, which would reflect the vision of the founding fathers of Abia State"

He further added that " Abia has all the potentials to favourably compete in the comity of progressive and prosperous states, hence the need for us to pause, ponder and purge our state of those vices that have become our albatross in our quest to attain great heights as a state"

Dr. Otti reminded Abians that the 29th anniversary celebration provides Abians with yet another opportunity for sober reflection and sincere scrutiny which can help all citizens ask critical questions that bother on leadership and development of the state, and enjoined all Abians to reflect on past mistakes and redouble their efforts in ushering a new Abia where all shall be selflessly committed in the pursuit of the sociopolitical and economic well-being of all citizens.

Finally, he congratulated Abians on the 29th anniversary celebration, and prayed God to continue to sustain all citizens in good health, while urging all to strive in their individual and collective ways to break new grounds for Abia development and economic prosperity.

Signed
Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant
to Dr. Alex Otti
27/08/2020.

Towards Dismantling of Petroleum Subsidy

BY ALEX OTTI (OUTSIDE THE BOX)

“Government Subsidy systems promote inefficiency in production and efficiency in coercion and subservience while penalizing efficiency in production and inefficiency in predation” Murray Rothbard (1926-1995)

“You either get free stuff or you get freedom. You cannot have both and you need to make a choice.” – Sarah Palin

Sometime ago, the former Managing Director of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the Late Mr. Maikanti Baru, (may his soul rest in peace), revealed to Nigerians that a detailed study conducted by the NNPC established a strong correlation between the presence of fuel stations located around Nigeria’s borders and the activities of fuel smuggling syndicates. Providing a detailed presentation of the findings, the then NNPC boss had disclosed that 16 states, having among them 61 local government areas with border communities, account for 2,201 of the nation’s registered fuel stations. He then noted that based on the number of all stations registered in the country, the fuel tank of the petrol stations, had a combined capacity of 144.998 million litres of petrol, representing about four times Nigeria’s average daily fuel consumption of 35 million litres!

The Late Mr. Baru had explained that because of the obvious differential in petrol prices between Nigeria and other neighbouring countries, it had become lucrative for the smugglers to use the frontier stations as a veritable conduit for the smuggling of products across the border, adding that this had resulted in a thriving market for Nigerian petrol in all the neighbouring countries of Niger Republic, Benin Republic, Cameroun, Chad and Togo and even down to Ghana, which has no direct borders with Nigeria.

This now brings us to the first quote above, which incidentally, was used in the concluding part of our column on this same subject of subsidies on September 24, 2018. That piece was titled “Subsidies: Working the Monkey and Feeding the Baboon”. We had argued then that there was everything wrong about sustaining the subsidy on petroleum products and that it should therefore be removed immediately and permanently. We noted that the feeble attempt to remove it by not providing for it in the previous year’s budget met with colossal failure because the NNPC, at that time, decided to retain it by taking the funds from source, christening the expenditure, “Under Recovery”. It was thus expensed directly from NNPC’s books before remitting what was left to the Federation Account. We maintained in our article then, that the common man, who was supposed to be the greatest beneficiary of any such subsidy, was in fact the greatest loser.

It is sad that literally almost overnight, Nigerians saw their ‘daily consumption’ of premium motor spirit, PMS, double from about 30m to 35m litres then to 60 million litres. Like we stated in the column under reference, the Late Mr. Maikanti Baru had raised an alarm on the proliferation of fuel stations in communities with international land and coastal borders across the country, insisting that the development had energised unprecedented cross-border smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries, thus making it difficult to sanitise the fuel supply and distribution matrix in the country.

One would have expected that with the announced closure of our land borders last year, the daily consumption would have returned to normal levels, but that is yet to be. Even as we write, we have not been able to push the number down as the official daily consumption figure as at last week, was still put at about 56m litres. It is therefore clear that there must be some other factors involved that have not been addressed.

With the advent of the Coronavirus pandemic, oil prices dramatically hit rock bottom levels. The Federal Government used the opportunity to announce the complete removal of oil subsidy. According to Mallam Mele Kyari, the current Group Managing Director of NNPC, Nigeria would no longer be paying for “Under Recovery” or subsidy on petroleum products. According to him “there is no subsidy and it is zero forever, going forward, there will be no resort to either subsidy or under recovery of any nature”. NNPC, he went on, will play in the marketplace, it will just be another marketer in the space. But we will be there for the country to sustain the security of supply at the marketplace. To give effect to the removal of subsidy, the 2020 budget, which had earlier made a provision of N457b for subsidy in the reviewed version, had this figure completely removed. Effectively this meant that there is no budget for the payment of subsidy in 2020. So far, all the signals appear that the government is serious about removing petroleum subsidy.

In reality however, there is a whole lot more that needs to be done to ensure that this policy is successfully implemented. Like we noted earlier, this is not the first time that the government had threatened or attempted to remove petroleum subsidy. An attempt to do so in 2012 was greeted with stiff resistance from civil society, in a coordinated protest that almost brought down the government of the day. The current administration had also attempted to do so by not budgeting for it in 2017, but eventually found an ingenious way of not implementing it through the sleight of hand of the NNPC. Now that we have NNPC’s commitment that it is no longer going to fund this subsidy, there are some institutional changes that must be made to ensure that we never go back again to the era of petroleum subsidy.

This column is of the opinion that the only way to ensure that this new stance on petroleum subsidy is successful is to dismantle the various institutions that have been established to implement it. For instance, there is this body called the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) founded in 2003 whose job is, among other responsibilities, to monitor and regulate the supply and distribution, and determine the prices of petroleum products. The PPPRA basically sets prices of petroleum products using a template designed by the agency to determine maximum prices of products. One would have expected that in a deregulated market, the PPPRA would no longer have any role to play or at the minimum, would have no hand in the determination of the prices of petroleum products. However, this is not yet the case as this body remains fully functional and continues to actively influence prices of petroleum products. Even if it is no longer publicly announcing its presence, it still remains active in the background, fixing prices. According to the most recent template sighted by us, the PPPRA sets the cost of crude in dollars. Freight Rate, Lightering Expenses, Insurance, NPA and NIMASA charges, (which are also set in dollars), Jetty Throughput, Storage Charges, Financing Cost, all amounting to a total landing cost. In addition to these is a plethora of other costs ,which to all intents and purposes, are avoidable and unjustifiably lead to higher cost of products as they are eventually passed on to final consumers. The PPPRA calls these costs, Distribution margins and they are as follows:


1. Admin Charge N1.23

2. National Transporters Allowance (NTA). N3.89

3. Bridging Fund N7.51

4. Marine Transport Allowance. N0.15

5. Retailer. N6.19


A cursory look at the above pricing model immediately shows that there is something fundamentally wrong with the system.

First, we are benchmarking crude prices in dollars because the refined products are imported. However, the crude is locally produced and if locally refined, the prices would obviously have been different and more sensitive to the naira economy we operate locally. Again, what is the justification for NPA and NIMASA levies to be charged and collected in dollars? At what rate do the marketers source the dollars used for the payment?

Secondly, what is the justification for the distribution margins itemised 1 to 4 above? More particularly, what is the reason for having No 3 – bridging fund? We are aware that the bridging fund has its basis from a strange invention called the Petroleum Equalisation Fund, (PEF). The logic, from the framers of the concept, is that it is intended to maintain the same price for petroleum products across the entire country. Time has shown that this is neither desirable nor feasible. There has never been a time where petroleum products sold for the same price in different parts of the country. Therefore, why maintain such an obsolete policy and add an unjustifiable extra N7.51 per litre to the price of PMS, which is also borne by the final consumer? How come we do not also have an equalisation fund for other products like yam, rice tomatoes, or even coke? What is so special about petrol that we insist that it must sell at the same price in every part of the country? When you add up the administrative charges, the transport allowances and the Bridge fund, you would realise that the PPPRA, as a bureaucracy, is hiking the price of petrol by a whopping N12.78 per litre. This translates to a humongous N716 billion a day for the 56 million barrels we are meant to be consuming. Another question also then, is this; what are PPPRA and PEF doing with this money?

Furthermore, there is the issue of foreign exchange management and conservation. While we want to believe that petroleum subsidy has been removed, there seems to be another policy reintroducing the subsidy from the angle of the foreign exchange market. One may ask how this is done and it is as follows: From the number posted above, the pricing is benchmarked against an exchange rate of N387.63 per dollar. Does that rate exist in the market? Of course, we all know that this is the official rate enjoyed by NNPC and it is easy to understand as the company is the one that funds a chunk of the foreign exchange market. The net result of all these is that no one imports PMS except the Pipeline and Product Marketing Company, PPMC, which itself is a subsidiary of the NNPC. Independent marketers cannot access the N387 dollar and if they went ahead to import with dollars from the free market, they would not be able to compete with PPMC. In effect every petroleum products marketer is forced to buy from the government. This clearly is not a sustainable way to deregulate. In fact, this is a clear case of the government introducing monopoly from the black door!

We all agree that local refinery would take off the cost of freight and some of the logistic costs highlighted above. We also know that the four refineries we have in the country have since become moribund, producing at less than one fifth of their capacity. We are also aware of the Dangote refinery, which when completed, will dwarf the combined 445,000 barrels per day capacity of our 4 refineries. Dangote’s greenfield refinery will have an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. How would the untidy arrangement in place now affect that massive investment? We hear government is trying to invest in refurbishing the four refineries. Does anyone need to be told that that is not the most efficient way to spend our har earned money? We read reports recently that one of the refineries generated zero revenue in 2018 but incurred an operating loss of N64.5b and a wage bill of N23b for the year. The case is not any different with the other three refineries, which individually also posted losses.

In view of the foregoing, our recommendation is that the government should dispose of the four refineries, even as scrap without further delay. It should also dismantle the PPPRA and PEF with immediate effect. PPPMC should stop importing PMS just like it had stopped importing Automotive Gas Oil. It should cede that role to the private sector immediately. The determination of prices should be left to the normal market forces of demand and supply. Importers should source their funds from the foreign exchange market just like other importers. They must bring in their products and sell in the open market without these artificial hurdles and obstacles. The relevant arm of the NNPC should play its role as a regulator in the market enforcing quality and interplay of market forces.

Maximum encouragement should be given to entrepreneurs like Dangote and others to invest in the sector and get them to start refining in country in the shortest time possible. This is to reduce all the distortions that we presently face because of importation and all artificial constraints that have been built into it. On no account should we accept the ludicrous argument that there is a product that we can legislate a uniform price across the country. There is no such thing and whenever we do, we only help make undeserved money for some people while the purpose would not be achieved. We must begin to accept the well tested principle that the best mechanism to allocate resources is the market forces. Intervention from time to time would ensure that the market continues to work for the greater majority of the populace. It is in this light that we may need to take a second look at this behemoth called the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. Well, that is a story for another day.

Slicing the Fat from Our Pot Bellies III

Outside the Box

BY ALEX OTTI

“Never use what you require for nourishment to just grow tall” – Local Nigerian Saying

In this concluding part of our discussion of taming the cost of governance, we will look at the states as that arm of government which constitutes the bulk of the waste of scarce resources we experience in the public sector. Every month, the Federal Allocation Committee meets in Abuja to share money to the component parts of government. According to the approved formula for sharing, 56% of funds goes to the Federal Government, while the remaining 44% is shared by the states. Of this amount, 20% should theoretically go to the local governments through the Joint Local Government Account (JAAC), a body that in all practical terms, is also controlled by the states. This is because the local governments are accountable to the state governments. In most cases, in order to control the funds in the JAAC account, states refuse to conduct local government elections, preferring the subterfuge of appointing ‘Transitional’ Council Chairmen and officers, who are completely accountable to the governors. For some state Governors, they simply continue to renew the appointment of the transitional councils ad infinitum to ensure that democratically elected officers do not emerge. Even when the pressure becomes too much, they would simply organise a selection exercise that would guarantee that only their loyalists emerge at the end of such processes. It was all these that led the National Assembly to pass a law recently, aimed at guaranteeing the autonomy of local governments. That one is a story for another day.

Nigeria’s political structure boasts of 36 states as at now, along with 774 local governments. The jury is still out as to whether these are very large numbers or not, when considered alongside the economic situation of our country. Could we have done with fewer states and local governments? We shall attempt to provide answers to these posers during this discourse. The thirty-six-state structure in the country implies that we have 36 governors and 36 Deputy Governors. For each of these states, there is a state House of Assembly charged with promulgating laws for the state. All the Houses of Assembly for the 36 states of the federation put together, have a total of 1,022 members. Now, one must bear in mind that each of the Members of the State House is entitled to a number of aides and personal staff who get paid ‘somehow’ by the states. The remaining members of the executive in the states equally have their own retinue of advisers, special assistants and senior special assistants. These also come along with a retinue of other personal aides. Each of the 36 states has commissioners (which we have estimated at twenty in number per state). These invariably also function along with their own army of staff and aides. The local governments on their own, have Chairmen, Deputy Chairmen and Councilors, who also have their own aides and personal staff.

In its report titled “State of the States 2019 Edition”, Budgit, a public and civic organisation, revealed that out of the 36 states in Nigeria, only three, viz, Lagos, Rivers and Kano, are fiscally sustainable. Budgit defines fiscal sustainability as a state being able to raise enough Internally Generated Revenue, IGR, to defray its recurrent expenditure. In applying this definition, Budgit assumes that most states would continue to rely on external forces like federal allocation and other exogenous inflows, to fund their capital expenditure. Had the report on the other hand, made the assumption that states would fund their total expenditure from internally generated revenue, the picture would have been markedly, and disappointingly, different. From a purely economic point of view, most of the states in the country are not viable. Like we have seen lately, with the advent of the pandemic and the massive drop in oil prices, the Nigerian economy, just like many others in the world, went into a tail spin. Even before the pandemic took effect, recent happenings in the technology space, leading to the discovery of alternative energy sources, which are cleaner and renewable, had put our oil-based economy in a precarious situation. The successful attempt to phase out hydrocarbon-fired vehicles for electric cars, which will become the standard in the next few years in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, has further dampened the hope for a revival in oil prices.

Before the pandemic, majority of the states had been unable to successfully deal with their cash flow challenges. Some State Governors have even been unable to pay the basic salaries of civil servants and other government employees till date. Many of them have already sunk their states into unsustainable debt levels. According to the DMO, out of the total national debt overhang of $79.3b, the states and FCT account for $11.4b or about 15% of the total, as at the end of March 2020. Some of the states have had to depend on non-guaranteed sources of funds like Paris Club refunds, budget support funds and bailouts from the federal government, and outright loans and advances from Commercial and Central Banks. It must be pointed out that these sources of funds are neither regular nor sustainable. The result is that many states have not been able to render the much-needed services to the people, a mandate which is the fundamental reason for the creation of such states in the first place. A major area where most of them have failed woefully is education. Many of the states have virtually abandoned their role of providing qualitative and affordable education for the youth. While the local governments have the responsibility of providing education at the primary level, the states are saddled with the responsibility of providing education at the secondary level. These responsibilities have long been abandoned in many states, leading not only to low enrollment but also poor output.

Healthcare delivery in most of the states is in a state of neglect. This outbreak of the pandemic has further exposed the decrepit state of health care in many states except maybe in the states mentioned earlier, others have no standard hospital that can attend to victims of the coronavirus pandemic. Studies done earlier have shown that whatever metric one chooses to adopt, many of our states fall below acceptable standards. Infant mortality remains very high, maternal mortality, access to drugs, access to medical personnel and doctor patient ratio remain in the very poor quadrant.

A look at the state of infrastructure reveals the alarming level of decay in most states of the federation. Roads have completely collapsed, housing is not even being mentioned in some states and drainages, water, electricity and transport systems have practically decayed. All these come as no surprise because most of the states have found themselves in the same problem that the federal government has been, as more than 70% of their annual budget goes to recurrent spending while a meagre amount, considerably less than 30%, is allocated to capital expenditure. There is the added challenge of many of the states rolling out ambitious budgets that they cannot fund and therefore, the budgets end up not being implemented to any appreciable level.

While these are festering, it is imperative that we don’t sit pretty, hoping that these realities would soon reverse themselves on their own. Our constant essays on reducing the cost of governance are part of our own patriotic call on everyone to begin to prepare for the rainy day as the ominous dark clouds gather. The urgent question that needs to be addressed now is whether we should continue to keep our existing unviable governance structure even when we are convinced that it is a drain on the nation’s scare resources. Some commentators have pushed back to say that if we saved money that were hitherto stolen from the coffers of government, then the cost of governance would pale into insignificance. While we may not completely discountenance this line of argument, we must quickly add that stopping the leakages is not mutually exclusive with controlling our cost of governance. We therefore argue that indeed, we can and should do both, as we can put a stop to ‘relooting’ the looted funds and also cut the cost of governance.

In the medium term, we want to recommend that our states and their leadership need to understand the enormity of the problem. Our concern is that leadership at different levels in the states don’t seem to be conscious of the fact that there is a problem. This is a major issue because a problem that is not acknowledged cannot be solved. Even when states cannot pay salaries one sees that leadership seems not to bother and continues with the lifestyle of leadership that prevailed when we were operating a hundred-dollar-per-barrel-oil economy, when in fact we cannot get half of that amount in the current dispensation. There is this attitude that the cost of running government is a first line charge and must be considered despite the parlous state of revenue. We all know that this is untenable, yet we continue to operate like the proverbial fellow who, while his house is on fire, is preoccupied with hunting rats in the same house.

We also advocate drastic reductionist actions to control costs and be able to carry out the required spend on critical infrastructure for the populace to grow and also enhance internally generated revenue. We may not be in a position to recommend the numbers that would be required in different states but we believe that if leadership is sincere, it will work towards optimising the numbers both at the level of commissioners, and that of the aides also. Just like we posited in our previous interventions, we make bold to state that the compensation packages for the leadership at the state and local government levels do not reflect the state of their respective economies. They will need to make sacrifices for the benefit of their states and local governments.

Closely related to the suggestion of cutting costs is the issue of internally generated revenue in the states and local governments. Governments at these levels should understand that going to share money in Abuja, though had been done for a long time is not a sustainable way to run government. While they could continue to enjoy this for as long as it lasts, they should immediately start thinking of when there is no more money to share in Abuja. Like we had demonstrated above, the time for this to happen does not seem farfetched anymore. To generate revenue locally, governments must invest in creating the enabling environment for businesses to thrive and share in the prosperity it has created. Frankly speaking, they must give scope for the private sector to lead economic activities in the states.

Expecting that it is possible to collect taxes without making the state and local government competitive is like expressing water out of rock. Therefore, our governments should do away with the mindset that investing in infrastructure for the populace must be centred on political patronage. Some very viable towns and cities have been allowed to rot by subsequent governments on account of this kind of political reasoning. What those who indulge in this fail to realise is that as they believe they are punishing their enemies in those towns by not investing in infrastructure and renewals, they are at the same time kissing their IGR goodbye. Again, states must see themselves as being in competition. And they truly are in competition. Why would a businessman chose to locate his business in one state rather than the other? You think that just because the governor is friends with a businessman that it is enough to consider you a preferred investment destination? If there is anything that is rational and without emotions, it is capital. Capital shows up in a location that has prepared itself not only to receive it but also to protect it and votes with its feet when it senses danger. So, when you see leaders working round the clock to ensure that there is adequate security for their states or local governments, when you see leaders going on a roadshows to showcase their potential, when you see leadership working on ease of doing business, when you see leadership working very hard on building critical infrastructure for the populace, when you see leaders investing in bringing gas to their industrial zones; then know that such leaders understand that it is not a favour for the populace but a business decision to attract investors and enhance IGR potential.

Finally, we would like to do a recap on all the critical issue we have dealt with in this piece, and they are as follows: Do we need 36 states with FCT? Do we need 36 State Governors, their Deputies, Commissioners and their army of aides numbering tens of thousands? Do we need 36 Speakers, Deputies, Principal Officers for the Houses, and over 1,000 members nationwide with their retinue of aides? Do we need 774 local government Chairmen and their Deputies, Councilors and their aides? Even if the answers to these posers are positive, can we really afford them? Should we not cut down these numbers? Can we do all what is required to achieve the reduction? Do we have dedicated leadership that can understand the point that we are making here and make these changes? Questions, questions, questions! Only time will tell.

Slicing the Fat from Our Pot Bellies (II)

BY ALEX OTTI (OUTSIDE THE BOX)

“The children of the poor you failed to train will never let your children live in Peace” Chief Obafemi Awolowo

“When you are skinning your customers, you should leave some skin on to heal, so that you can skin them again.” Nikita Khrushchev, Former Leader of the Soviet Union

We started a discussion penultimate week on reining in the cost of governance, which has clearly become an intractable challenge to Nigeria’s 4th Republic. This problem has been exacerbated by the twin problems of dwindling revenue and mounting debt. We have an economic crisis in our hands, though some people still live in denial as if by so doing, it will cease to exist. Those problems cannot just disappear simply because we have chosen to ignore them. We had earlier dwelt on the Executive arm of government. Today, we are going to look at the Legislature.

From information available to the public, our federal legislators are amongst the highest paid in the world. Specifically, a study shows that they are the second to the highest earning worldwide. The only country that beats us is Singapore, a city state that has one of the highest levels of income per capita, in the world. The reason for the high pay in Singapore is said to be to encourage professionals to participate in legislative functions. Everyone familiar with the matter agrees that the Singaporean civil service is arguably the most professionally run in the world.

Again, America the model of our own democratic experiment, does not occupy a pride of place in countries with jumbo pay for their legislators. Before now, the compensation package of our National Assembly members was not in the public domain. There was not much to really depend upon except some veiled references to jumbo packages being enjoyed by members. The first authoritative source of information on this matter came from Senator Shehu Sani, the outspoken Senator, who represented Kaduna Central in the 8th Senate. Senator Sani had revealed that Senators went home with a monthly salary of N750,000.00 in addition to allowances of N13.5m per month. This represents a total package of N14.25m per month. He had also said that they were entitled to constituency projects of N200m per year which was domiciled in different ministries. Theoretically, the way constituency projects work is that Senators are expected to liaise with the ministries to get projects worth N200m done in their different constituencies in a year. In practice, we know that this works differently. In Nigeria, it is more like the funding for such constituency projects sometimes find their way into the pockets of the politicians.

Also not captured by Senator Sani are a few other allowances, which include furniture, car and severance packages for non-returning senators. Translating the numbers into dollars for purposes of comparison, our senators earn about $450,000 per annum. This is over two and half times the $174,000.00 per annum that their counterparts earn in the United States of America. Meanwhile, there are 3 senators per state and one for Abuja, totaling 109. The 109 senators have a combined staff of 829 aides on payroll and a retinue of support staff who are also paid by the National Assembly.

The House of Representatives, in its own case, has 360 members from the different constituencies in the federation. Together, they are entitled to 1,880 legislative aides amongst other support and personal staff.

The compensation package for House members is a minimum of N600,000.00 per month or N7.2m per annum. In addition, they receive N12m monthly for ‘running costs’, bringing the total to about N151.2m per annum. The dollar equivalent of this package would be about $398, 000.00 per annum. Interestingly, the package for House of Representative members in the US is the same with that of the Senate at $174,000.00 per annum. The average House of Representative member in Nigeria earns a clear $224,000.00 more than his counterpart in the United States. The US has 435 house of representative members and 100 senators for a country of 50 states and population of more than 330million people. When one puts the GDP of the USA alongside that of Nigeria and what their respective legislators earn, one begins to appreciate the sorry state of things.

Nevertheless, the issue of the size of the economy and general wellbeing of the populace viz a viz the size of the legislature and welfare of legislators, is not within the scope of this discourse. The relative productivity of the National Assembly of both countries is also not within the contemplation of this piece. We are also not going to pay much attention to the fact that our National Assembly is expected to sit for 180 days in a year and be on holidays and recess for the remaining 185 days in the year. Again, the vexatious and much discussed issue of the renovation of the National Assembly Complex, is not our focus today. After all, that is a one-off cost and will not feature in the national budget for next year. We shall also not factor in the allegation that about 60% of jobs in the NDDC is allocated to National Assembly members, after all, that has not been proved and may soon become a subject of debate, if not litigation. We will also ignore the allegation made recently by Prof. Attahiru Jega, the former INEC Chairman, that legislative committee work and oversight functions have been turned into bribe taking and bribe giving pursuits. The fact that the hallowed chambers have become such a safe haven for National Assembly staff that civil servants who were ordinarily supposed to retire after 35 years of service or on clocking 60, have decided to stay put, preferring to continue to contribute their quota to legislative work until death does them part, is an area that this treatise is not willing, even if competent, to discuss.

What concerns us today is how the National Assembly can help Nigeria to reduce her cost of governance. How can the legislature contribute towards saving our democracy and preserving our economy? We strongly believe that this may not be out of altruism but out of self-interest and self-preservation. The budget allocations to the National Assembly have hovered between N125b and N150b annually. In absolute numbers, this may not be a lot of money, except that it is over 15% of the annual combined budgets for education and health for 200m Nigerians.

Again, looking at our peculiar circumstances, where close to half our population live below poverty line of less than N720 per day and in the face of the pandemic that has grounded the world economy, ours included, this amount becomes an issue that deserves closer scrutiny and calls for immediate redress. Furthermore, spending on social services and infrastructure, which affects most of the people, continues to decline, while that of the legislators remains at high levels. While the number of legislators remains steady at 469, the general population of Nigeria keeps growing and about 6 Nigerians drop into poverty every minute. It would not be out of place to ask how fair this arrangement is and even if not important, whether it is really sustainable.

Given all these considerations, we plead with the National Assembly to consider some of the suggestions that we are going to make to reduce cost of governance and make democracy work for the rest of the country. We are addressing the National Assembly directly because they are the law makers and amending the constitution falls squarely within their purview.

The first issue to consider is the whole concept of operating a bicameral legislature. The pivotal questions are; Is it necessary? Is it desirable? Moreover, is it sustainable? Our belief is that we should do away with the bicameral system and maintain a single National Assembly structure. This simple step will immediately save the country a lot of money. If we must be honest, we would agree that many times, there is a duplication of functions in the National Assembly. While we admit the argument in the literature about the need for two pairs of eyes seeing better, we quickly add that it depends on how clear the vision is. A clear pair of eyes would definitely see better than ten bad pairs of eyes. Not too long ago, Senegal dumped its 100-member senate, maintaining a single National Assembly of just150 members. The net effect of this action is that the poor West African country is saving about $15m annually from its budget.

Our second recommendation deals with the size of the National Assembly. This, we would refer to as right sizing. So, what is the ideal size of the legislature for a country like Nigeria with all its multifarious economic problems? America’s 535 legislators for a country of 330m people translates to one legislator to every 618,000 people. India with a population of 1.38billion people has a parliamentary size of 790 people.

This means one legislator to 1.7m people. Even the European Union, with a population of 446m people, has a parliamentary size of 751, giving a ratio of 1 to 600,000. Nigeria with an estimated population of 200m and National Assembly size of 469 works out at 1 legislator to just 426,000 people. One may not say for sure what the ideal number should be but from the numbers thrown up here, we have fewer people per legislator than the countries considered here and one of them is the model of our democracy. Given our peculiar circumstances, if we take a cue from India, we should be looking at about a National Assembly size of about 117 people. This number will be justified shortly in this discourse.

Our third issue of focus is on the compensation package for members. There is no doubt that the National Assembly members take more than their fair share of the national cake. We should remove all perks and pay only sitting allowances to members. This means that they only get paid when they sit. Again, the legislative function should be part-time. That is the standard practice for board members of institutions and companies. When this is done it will help to ensure the success of the next suggestion.

The fourth issue is in the quality of people who would be fit to serve as National Assembly members. The minimum standard should be people who have succeeded in their chosen fields of endeavour and are not merely in search of jobs or relevance. If corporate organisations and multinational institutions would insist that to qualify to be a board member, one must attain a minimum level of experience and achievement, amongst others, we believe that for a country like Nigeria, we should collectively define high standards. We should also take away the pecuniary benefits which seem to be the major attraction for many people. Call it an elitist club if you will and you won’t be wrong. We, like Singapore, should be represented by the best amongst us.

The fifth suggestion is in the structure and mode of sitting. The Pandemic has forced us to devise alternatives to physical meetings. Today, many meetings are held virtually including the Federal Executive Council. Events like weddings, birthday celebrations, burials and graduations are attended virtually, through such applications as Zoom and Skype. In like manner, we should adopt virtual meetings for the National Assembly. Members should live and remain in their locations and hold meetings for which they would earn allowances each time they sit. We would therefore save on travels, accommodation and other inconvenience allowances. Physical meetings should be held, say, quarterly if and where necessary.

Finally, there is the long pending issue of the issue of the constitution. When we hear people refer to the constitution, there is this impression created that our constitution is flawless and sacrosanct. We all know that this is not true. For starters, the 1999 constitution was foisted on us by the military. The flaws are so glaring that there is no gainsaying the fact that it is one of the major factors holding the country down. We have tried to work with it in the past twenty years and should boldly change part of it that doesn’t work for us, if not the entire document, if we so choose. This is where the National Assembly comes into focus again. The National Assembly should help us save our fragile economy, and indeed democracy, by legislating out, any pressure on us. We are aware that some of the recommendations made in this piece cannot be implemented without amending the constitution. In addition, to achieve the optimum number of legislative seats recommended earlier, the National Assembly should pass a law requiring that each of the 6 geopolitical zones elect only 20 members to the National Assembly from 2023. It can even go the whole hog and legislate away the state structure in favour of the 6 regional structure to help us rein in the persisting high cost of governance.

All the building blocks to the required change can be put together prior to the 2023 elections. Some people would wonder what is in it for the current legislators. There comes a time when citizens would choose patriotism over selfish interests, even if at the minimum, to secure the future of their children and their children’s children. We think we are at that point where we need to look beyond personal interest and work to save this country from collapse. Where we choose to leave things the way they are now, at the time when we would be “resting in peace” our children, just like Awolowo prophesied, may not be allowed to live in peace.

BY ALEX OTTI (OUTSIDE THE BOX)

Slicing the Fat from Our Pot Bellies (I)

“The more leeches there are affixed to a host, the less resources there are to siphon from said hosts, per parasite. The ability to only absorb energy, without the ability or desire to reproduce it in a productive manner, is a dangerous, unsustainable, albeit attractive long term method of collapse and decline.” Justin K. McFarlane Beau

For some time now, the financially literate ones amongst us have been drawing our attention to the danger that the badly structured nature of our economy portends for the country. One area that has continued to worry analysts most is the fact that we seem to be stuck in a situation where perennially, we dedicate over 70% of our budget to recurrent expenditure while less than 30% gets allocated to capital expenditure. While the argument over expenditure mix rages, the revenue debate has assumed centre stage. Like we had stated in our previous interventions in the past few years, we have only been able to achieve about half of our annual revenue targets of our annual budgets. In situations where the budgets make provisions for deficits like has been the case in the last five years, it simply means that the realisable revenues are less than fifty percent of the targets, in real terms.

Since the total revenue for any specific period is finite, we dare contend that expenditure should be made subject to revenue. As revenue expands, expenditure can be allowed to increase in accordance with Parkinson’s law which states that ‘expenditure will always rise to meet income’. To achieve the required cost containment aspirations, things must be done differently. Some drastic, sometimes even difficult, and painful measures must be taken. Of course, the other option is to allow natural events eventually force the changes. Both options would work, ultimately, even though the outcomes may be different. While voluntary change will ensure that there is a planned order based on the realities of the situation, the involuntary option will be a solution that arises out of the ashes of a crisis and the natural law of decay and degeneracy. This option would sure engender even more crises and oftentimes, would be catastrophic. We believe that it is imperative to explore the voluntary option and have a controlled, predictable, and desired outcome in the face of dwindling resources. This essay shall explore how to realistically manage ourselves in the face of dwindling resources and still come out looking good. We are going to focus on the federal tier of government and expect that the other two tiers – state and local governments – can benefit and learn from the Federal Government. Today, we shall be looking specifically at the Executive and subsequently, we shall beam our searchlight on the Legislature and Judiciary.

It is doubtful if there is any debate about the fact that we have a very wasteful and expensive executive branch of the Federal government. People have argued that democracy the world over, is a very expensive form of government. While we do not disagree, we make bold to say that our own brand of democracy is numerous times more expensive than those of the people from whom we copied it.

We shall prove this fact in the course of this piece. Suffice it to say, however, that in the past, various federal government administrations had made reasonable attempts to rationalise government agencies ostensibly to bring down cost of governance. The Allison Ayida Committee of 1995, was one of the recent attempts to reorganise the executive arm of the federal government. This therefore, shows that this issue of executive profligacy predates the fourth republic. One of the main arguments made by the Ayida report was that Ministers should not act as Chairmen of government owned agencies, which it also recommended should be pruned down. Subsequently, entered the Ahmed Joda Committee of 1999, which, amongst other issues, contended that “ministerial interference and bureaucratic control needed to be eliminated to strengthen public service delivery. This committee had very strong words against the incompetence in government parastatals and boards. It also came down very hard on the sheer size of the boards of parastatals which, according to it, is a complete waste of resources of government.

The most recent but more comprehensive effort on the issue of streamlining government agencies and cutting down on cost of governance, is the Oronsaye report. This report recommended the pruning down of statutory agencies of government, from the current number of 263 to 161, that is a reduction of close to 40%. This report, which was submitted to the immediate past President, Goodluck Jonathan, an 800 page document, which took months to prepare, seemed to be gathering dust in a government shelf somewhere, until very recently. The report states that the average cost of governance in Nigeria is amongst the highest in the world. The Oronsaye report also recommended that professional bodies/councils should be removed from the National budget and most importantly, that the National Budget should be linked to deliverables and performance. In addition, the report exposed the duplication of roles in government. Membership of governing boards, council of government agencies, parastatals and commissions are so many when there is no need for such large numbers, the report further exposed.

Therefore, it is evident that our problem is not lack of ideas or not knowing what to do. On the contrary, we have had more than enough ideas about what to do. We had also made attempts to articulate them in a working document, available to any interested government or official to see. The sad reality is that we stop short after the point of expression of intentions. Many of the reports have not progressed to the stage where white papers are issued on them and even if they were issued, the will to implement them has always been missing. Departing from the norm, the Minister of Finance recently announced government’s preparedness to implement the Oronsaye report as a way of saving money to finance the deficit in the budget. We think this is good news and better late than never. Even then, we are still waiting and we cannot say at this time, how far the government intends to go.

Departing from government agencies, let us now focus on other parts of the executive arm, starting from the Presidency itself. While one may not claim to be an expert in this area, there is no doubt that the Presidency gulps a large chunk of our annual revenue. All sorts of agencies and positions hide under this big monster, ‘The Presidency’. There is a retinue of aides, ranging from Special Advisers to Senior Special Assistants to Special Assistants to both the President, Vice President, and other senior government officials. In the spirit of cutting down on cost of governance, can we not also ask that we cut the Presidency down by about 40%, using the same logic introduced by the Oronsaye report? This could be implemented across board and should include the Presidential fleet, more so, since traveling may not be a very frequent phenomenon any time soon.

Let us now turn to the Cabinet. Presently, we have 43 ministers each with its retinue of aides and special assistants. Even in stable times this is not only unwieldy and inefficient, but very expensive. Do we really need that number or are we simply pandering to what the Americans call ‘pork barrel politics’? Is this not just a very shameless way of finding work and relevance ‘for the boys’? The constitution recommends that there should be a minister per state. Some of us believe that that part of our constitution should be amended quickly. Is it not possible to cut this number by the same 40%, wind up with no more than 17 ministers and still run these ministries efficiently?

When one compares our numbers with those of the US and other leading democracies across the world, one would notice that we didn’t copy well at all. The US has 15 Secretaries (Ministers) as members of Cabinet and it has 50 States. The United Kingdom has just 21 ministers. Interestingly, in the UK, Cabinet Ministers are also members of Parliament, House Of Lords and House of Commons. 5 more members of Parliament are ‘in attendance’ at cabinet meetings. India, with a population approaching 1.4 billion people, has only 19 ministers in her cabinet and presided over by the Prime Minister. Even though there are several other assistants or deputies, they are not members of Cabinet. Germany also has 15 cabinet ministers and just literally at our backyard, Ghana’s constitution allows for a minimum of 10 cabinet ministers and a maximum of 19. What all these numbers show us is that we can afford to run our federal executive arm of government efficiently with the recommended 17 or even 15 ministers. Bear in mind that some of the countries we highlighted here are unitary governments while in our case we still have these roles replicated in the 36 states by commissioners.

There is no doubt that some people would be thumping the unemployment card at us on this rationalisation recommendation. The truth is that there is no way a reorganisation of this nature would happen without people losing their jobs. It is also true that government’s role is not to be the biggest employer of labour. Even with the best of intentions, government does not have the capacity to maintain many people on its payroll. This process is called ‘Creative destruction’ in that it leads to destruction that will engender growth and development in the long run.

Government would subsequently focus on its proper role of creating the enabling environment for a strong and virile private sector driven economy that would create jobs for people. By releasing the funds used to run government and channeling same to building infrastructure in a massive manner, government would be able to reduce cost of doing business and help the private sector create jobs.

We contend that the advent of Covid -19 has made it impossible for us to continue doing things the way we had been in the last few years. It would take a long time for things to return to normalcy, that is if they will ever do. There are opportunities open to us in the emerging post-COVID-19 era. Evidently, oil has become a more endangered species. Nigeria has borrowed up to her neck given that she now owes close to $80 billion and still counting. We are using 60% of our revenue just to service our debt, leaving us with so precious little to do other things. We are clearly running a huge deficit budget and we are seriously in trouble. Desperate situations require desperate measures. We should throw every possible solution into the pot. Using a street expression, if we do not do something, something will “do” us.

Budget 2020: Reducing the Numbers Upward

Outside The Box

BY ALEX OTTI

“You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you” – Dave Ramsey

President Buhari had signed the 2020 budget before the end of 2019, in a clear departure from previous experiences where the budget did not get to be passed until the middle of the year. To the relief of most Nigerians, we had finally got it right for once and it was something to be celebrated. Little did we know that coronavirus was on the way. As the pandemic hit the country and with the lockdown in March, the budget became untenable and unrealistic. The world economy literally shut down and went into a tailspin. People were stuck in their homes and physical movement was practically halted. Almost all nations of the world shut their borders. The direct impact of that was that no one was buying our oil until very recently. Prices crashed on the heels of demand that disappeared. Even though the world economy has begun to open gradually, oil prices are recovering at a very slow pace. As a result, our projections for the 2020 budget cannot hold anymore. We have had to pare down the budget to realistic levels. At least, that was the understanding among many informed Nigerians.

The initial national budget of N10.59 trillion was an increase of 2.5% from the 2019 budget of N8.92 trillion. The budget “for sustainable growth and job creation” set aside N453b, representing 4% of total expenditure, for social intervention. This was to be managed by the newly created Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development. This Ministry was given the mandate to focus on the avowed goal of lifting 100m Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.

The budget estimate was based on some fundamental assumptions. Exchange rate was kept steady at N305 per dollar. GDP growth was estimated at 2.93%. Oil production benchmark was put at 2.18 mbpd.

Inflation was estimated at 10.81% for the year. Again, government projected a 7% rise in revenue from 2019 budget figures. This was going to be achieved partly with an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT), from 5% to 7.5%. To cushion the effect of this increase, government insulated the lower rungs of the SMEs from VAT registration. Companies whose annual turnover was below N25m were exempted from VAT registration. To tame food inflation, staples like bread, rice, yam, etc were VAT exempt. The jury is still out as to how the increase in VAT would benefit federal government revenue as 85% of VAT statutorily goes to the states

The total revenue expected to be realised as per the 2020 budget was N8.42t resulting in a deficit of N2.17t. However, as we shall see shortly, the deficit was understated as government has always failed to meet its revenue target in the last few years. Out of the revenue projection, 22% or N1.81t was going to come from non-oil sources while 31% or N2.6t was from oil sources. The remaining 47% or N3.97t was to come from other revenue sources. It is instructive to state that in the past four years, government has only been able to realise an average of 40% of revenue from the “Other Revenue Sources”. Extrapolating from this, it means that without the disruption in the economy by the pandemic, the maximum amount that would have been realised here would be about N1.6t, leaving a shortfall of N2.4t. Now, add that to the earlier recognised N2.17t deficit and you would end up with a total real deficit of N4.54t. This means that the deficit is about 54% of the revenue target. How to fund this large deficit remains to be seen more so now that Covid 19 has taken its toll on the economy. We shall return to this critical issue later.

A little digression, which is still very relevant though in this discourse, is that there exists a plan document that terminates this year. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan was issued in 2017.

The document had some numbers we should have achieved during the period that it covered. A look into the ERGP shows that we missed virtually all the targets that we set for ourselves. By this year, GDP growth rate was forecast to be 7% as against the 2.93% we are now projecting. Inflation rate of 10.81 as against ERGP target of 9.9% is off target. Again, daily oil production capacity of 2.18 mbpd is a far cry from the ERGP target of 2.5 mbpd. This document runs out its lifespan this year with virtually all its targets unmet. It will be important to know what went wrong. It is either the numbers were not realistic or there was no commitment towards its implementation. Whatever be the case, it is important that as we draw up the next plan, we apply the lessons from the present one which was implemented in breach.

Realising the damage the Pandemic has wreaked on the economy, the government had sent a reviewed budget to the National Assembly. The objective was to cut down the budget by over N71.5b to a lower figure of N10.52t. Oil benchmark was also reduced from $57 to $25 per barrel while oil production was reduced from 2.18mbpd to 1.94mbpd. Revenue projection was reduced to N5.16t from N8.42t. This represents a drop of close to 40% or N3.26t. Given that the CBN had already adjusted the value of the Naira against the the dollar, the revised budget increased exchange rates from N305 to N360. Statutory transfers were reduced from N560.5b to N407.8b, a drop of N152.7b. Capital expenditure was reduced by N155b from N2.78t to N2.62t. Recurrent expenditure reduced by N25b from N4.49t to N4.46t. Fiscal deficit, therefore grew from N2.17t to N5.37t, which is expected to be financed through fresh borrowing.

It does appear that the government did not go back to the National Assembly for a reduction in the budget even though that was what was communicated. It must, however, be said that a N71b reduction in a budget of over N10t is like a drop in an ocean. The government truly realised that its estimates, in terms of oil receipts, were no longer tenable given the sharp drop in oil prices.

Consequently, the government proposed a conservative $25 per barrel but the National Assembly jerked it up to $28 per barrel. Even though the National Assembly felt that $28 per barrel was conservative enough, there are market realities that obey their own fundamentals and not the wishes of a price taker. The major issue that stood out was the realisation that the revenue target was unrealistic. Rather than recognising a deficit of N2.17t, it became necessary to get the National Assembly to approve the real deficit of N5.37t which will be funded by internal and external borrowing. Bear in mind that from the total anticipated revenue of N5.2t a provision of N2.95t had been earmarked for debt servicing for the year. That means that we are setting aside about 57% of our revenue this year to debt servicing.

Now, why do all these matter? In the first place, there is nothing to cheer about over either the original budget nor the so-called revised one. This is because just like we said last year, your average share in this budget does not leave you any better than where you were last year. Your share as an individual, is just $150 or N54,000.00, yes fifty- four thousand Naira for the year. It means that if the budget were to be shared equally to everyone you will go home with N4,500.00 per month. Compare that with our counterparts in South Africa and Angola who will go home with $2,200.00 and $1,200 each, per year!

The second point is about education and health. The Pandemic has revealed how “wicked” we have been to ourselves over the years. We have left the public health system to decay. The state of our healthcare system is so bad that other than a few cities like Lagos, Abuja and probably Port Harcourt, there is no where one can get standard (and we are not talking of sophisticated!) medical care in this country. Many people who ordinarily would have had no business dying have lost their lives in the last three months. These deaths may not be directly related to COVID-19 but technically, they are. Medical Personnel are stretched, local hospitals are ill equipped to attend to simple ailments and a few who would have sought help abroad are not able to do so given the lockdown. Even where there is available medical service, there is the poor COVID-19 testing environment that makes the medical personnel take extra precaution before treating even simple ailments.

With the epiphany brought about by the pandemic, one would have expected that we will use this period, to declare an emergency on public health. Curiously, and apparently to no one’s disappointment, neither the original budget nor the revised one paid attention to the gaping need for improved healthcare system in Nigeria. For instance, the projection for healthcare in the original budget was N441b, a meagre 4.2% of the budget. This is in contrast with the situation in South Africa and Rwanda, where they have complied with the World Health Organisation recommendation that countries should not spend less than 15% of their annual budget on healthcare. Nigeria, which is expected to lead the way in Africa, is shamelessly in breach. On education, we budgeted N686b or 6.5% of the total figure in the original budget. This is far below the UNESCO recommendation of between 15% and 20% of budget allocation for education in developing countries. It is disheartening that the percentage allocation to education in Nigeria has instead continued to drop on a yearly basis. Starting from 2015 when it was 12.3%, it dropped to 9.2% in 2016, 7.3% in 2017, and 6.5% this year.

The next point which one must say, has been over flogged is that of the persisting debt overhang. By the end of March 2020, our total debt stood at $79.3b. In order to fund the revised budget, we need not less than $15b, in additional loans. The big questions are: can we afford to service additional loan if we already set aside close to N3t to service the present outstanding balance? Who would lend us that money and at what price, both in financial and political terms? If we believe we are going to meet the shortfall by printing money, has anybody bothered to consider the inflationary implications?

The next point that is of concern to us is the structure of our budget and therefore our government. No matter what we do, we seem to be stuck with 70% of our budget going into recurrent expenditure. In the revised budget, 73.5% of total expenditure will go into salaries and debt servicing, while only 26.5% will go into capital expenditure. What does that mean for both physical and social infrastructure development? What can we do to reduce the cost of governance at both the executive and legislative arms of government? Again, if for any reason we are unable to fund the budget completely like has been the case in the last few years, it is Capital Expenditure that bears the brunt. The implication is that there are chances that the meagre allocation to infrastructure may not be implemented in full.

The final point is an ideological economic issue. There is no doubt that the economy will go into recession by the end of the third quarter of this year. Given this situation, one question that we need to ask ourselves is whether the government should be reducing or increasing the budget. It is important to hold a conversation around whether the National Assembly did the right thing by increasing the budget even if the reason for the increase had nothing to do with stimulating the economy. Talking about stimulating the economy, we need to interrogate the options of the level at which government should pitch its social spending. Should it be at the level of government agencies or should it deal with putting money in the hands of consumers to stimulate demand and therefore production? Should the government do something different to encourage consumption and local production thereby creating jobs and increasing GDP?

It is important to ensure that we do not waste the awareness and opportunities created by this pandemic crisis. We advocate here that Nigeria must declare a medical emergency immediately. We must invest heavily in healthcare, for the sake of everybody, whether rich or poor. We had made recommendations in the past on how we should tackle our public health challenge. We must start by shifting our budget emphasis to recognise this challenge. We also think that we should use the opportunity provided by this crisis to renegotiate our debts. In fact, we should be asking our creditors for outright cancellation and debt forgiveness. We are already in a debt crisis and from every indication, we cannot meet our debt obligations and still provide basic resources for our people. We cannot afford to devote close to 60% of our revenue to service debt. There is no better time than now to declare that we cannot pay. Closely related to that is that the time has come for us to reduce the size and change the structure of government to reflect our current realities. This column will be looking at this important issue in due course. We must begin now to prepare for the imminent recession. We must engage those who know amongst us to help us deal with this. Pretending that all is well is not a strategy. We must welcome anything that can push consumption and local production up at this time. We should discourage anything that puts money in a few hands as that will further weaken the economy. This may sound harsh, but we cannot afford to live in what is clearly a fool’s paradise.

•N/B: From July 2020, this column would be published every other Sunday.

Dr. Alex Otti's Democracy Day Message to Nigerians.

Democracy Day Celebration: Let This Trial Redirect Us-Otti.


A financial expert and the 2019 APGA Abia governorship candidate, Dr. Alex Otti OFR has felicitated with the good people of Abia state and Nigerians as a whole on the occassion of her Democracy Day Celebration.

Dr. Otti expressed gratitude to God for his sustenance of the nation and her citizens in spite of the numerous challenges that have continued to hit the foundation of the country, and called on Nigerians, especially leaders not to take God's patience and kindness towards Nigeria for granted, rather should see today as a moment for sober reflection and re-assessment so as to open a new chapter, and chat a new course that could help drive the country out of her numerous challenges, especially at this time of global health crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic.

The financial expert reminded leaders at all levels that, even though the Coronavirus Pandemic may not have killed Nigerians in their tens of thousands compared to what has been witnessed in some countries of Europe, America and Asia so far, yet, the virus has exposed the terrible weakness of our health institutions and presented a long term danger for us, if we fail as a nation to review and prioritize the health needs of our people through responsible governance.

He specifically warned that the high rate of fatality recorded so far amongst many sick Nigerians, especially senior citizens who ordinarily would have travelled abroad to seek effective medical care, but could not do so because of the present travel restrictions put in place by many countries, is a loud warning that we cannot continue to neglect our health Institutions and medical personnel at home, without severe consequences.

Dr. Otti insisted that Nigeria is endowed with enormous human talents and material resources to take care of her own needs and solve her internal problems, hence the need for leaders at all levels to redirect the vehicle of governance to the path of prosperity, and to responsibly use the instruments of democratic governance to rejig all facets of Nigeria's economy as a way of lifting Nigerians out of the doldrums of sickness, hopelessness and underdevelopment.

Finally, he called for prayers, support and solidarity to all Nigerians who are presently down with Coronavirus, and also appealed to all to continue to apply all safety measures recommended by experts.


Signed
Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant to
Dr. Alex Otti
12/06/2020.

Press Release.

Covid-19: Otti Wishes Ikpeazu Quick Recovery, Calls for Prayers and Solidarity.

It is with sadness and regret that Dr. Alex Otti, OFR, received the very unfortunate news of the latest cases of Covid-19 in Abia state which saw 67 Abia residents testing positive to the virus, including some members of the Abia state executive council.
Most saddening, is the case of the state governor, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu, who also tested positive.

Dr. Otti hereby sends his best wishes of quick recovery and sincere solidarity to the governor, members of the state executive council, and other citizens who tested positive to the virus.

The financial expert enjoins governor Ikpeazu to remain strong and courageous in the face of the Covid-19 trial, as a way of instilling confidence in other citizens who were also hit by the virus, and called on all Abians to take this pandemic very seriously.

Otti uses this opportunity to remind Abians that viruses act very mysteriously, and sometimes strike with unpredictable speed and surprise, hence the need for Abians to do away with doubt and carelessness, but rather adhere to every professional advice, and apply individual and institutional safety measures required to remain safe.

He adds that his very early intervention in the fight against the pandemic and support to selected hospitals, was predicated on his understanding of the threat posed by the virus, and the need to help check its spread, especially amongst medical personnel.

Dr. Otti wishes to thank public spirited Abia citizens and friends who responded to his call to support our people in this fight, particularly Access Bank that put up a 100 bed Isolation Centre in Amachara and The Abia Professionals League led by one of our illustrious daughters, Mrs. Ngozi Ekeoma who has just completed a state- of- the- art permanent 50 bed Infectious Diseases and Treatment Centre at FMC, Umuahia amongst many others.
He prays that God will replenish their sources a million fold.
Again Dr. Otti prays for very quick recovery for Governor Ikpeazu and other Abia Citizens battling the virus at this time.

Signed

Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant to
Dr. Alex Otti
09/06/2020.

Dr. Alex Otti is still thinking outside the box with his latest Thisday Column Piece captioned:

Triumph of Profligacy Over Prudence

By ALEX OTTI

“The ability to extract maximum value from resources while creating minimum waste is a profitable skill to have.”

― Hendrith Vanlon Smith Jr, The Wealth Reference Guide: An American Classic

“The former administrations wantonly wasted the state’s resources. Just to go to Abuja, they spent N50m. It is there on record….. If you take N50m times four, that is N200m. You can’t do any project” Bala Mohammed, Bauchi State Governor, May 30, 2020.

Before going into the main issue of the day, permit me to delve into a story that will serve as its backdrop. The story has to do with the trials and triumphs of a very well-known Nigerian public figure, Peter Gregory Obi. Love him or hate him, many people agree that Peter Obi is one of the few leaders of the country that has his head properly screwed on his neck. He and I may not belong to the same political party, but then political parties in Nigeria do not operate on the basis of ideology, thus making it difficult to really differentiate one from the other. As different as the political parties are, one factor that knows no political party is truth. On Peter Obi, the truth is that he is a true example of excellent leadership and accountability in today’s world where such attributes are in very short supply. He may not be the most politically-correct public figure and this had led him into fighting several political battles even till today. He stood for election in Anambra State under the then nascent political party, All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) in 2003 and won. His victory was however, stolen by the rival PDP and he went to court where he battled for three years before reclaiming his mandate. Not too long after he assumed office, he was ‘impeached’ and that made him return to court where he won yet again and returned to his seat on February 9, 2007. He was to return to the court for the third time when an election was conducted in 2007 terminating his tenure, which in fact began just a year earlier. That election was declared null and void and he returned to complete his first four-year tenure on June 14, 2007. At the expiration of his first term, he was returned for a second tenure which started from March 17, 2010 and ended with an elaborate ceremony on March 17, 2014.

Peter Obi came into governance well prepared. He was coming with several certifications from some of the best schools in the world and had under his belt, cognate experience in the private sector. He was once the Chairman of Fidelity Bank Plc, amongst other positions including Chairman Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission. He was therefore not one of the “chartered politicians” who had no alternate address. Despite all the land mines laid for him, he was able to navigate them and left the state, a lot better than he met it. He had no godfather and truth be told, he could not have had one as he had all the ingredients to be a godfather himself and therefore could not have beholden to anyone. That may as well be one of his major problems. Most godfathers have something in common. They would only support those who are dependent on and inferior to them so that when they asked such a stooge to jump, the inevitable response would be, ‘how high?’

As Obi took over from his predecessor, he was determined to chart a new course for the then badly managed state. This column must at this point also quickly acknowledge the excellent work done by Dr. Chris Ngige, the current minister of Labour and Productivity, who in spite of the ferocious onslaught by the self-assumed godfathers in the state, was able to massively attack the major problem of the state at that time which was access roads. He built a lot of roads within the period he was Governor and indeed set the stage for Peter Obi to open up even the interiors of the state and make transportation within the state a relatively easy and affordable undertaking.

Peter Obi fully understood that one cannot have one’s cake and eat it. He was therefore deliberate about what was important and what was not to his people. He focused on cutting drastically, the cost of governance. Amidst dwindling resources, many of our leaders do not realise that the cost of governance can be reduced quite significantly. This realisation and the resolve to implement it, set Peter Obi apart from his peers. The history of governance in Nigeria shows that most of our leaders tend to continue to live a life of profligacy and extravagance, when, their states are insolvent and wallow in debt.

The question then is how did Peter Obi achieve that feat in a state that was reputed to have been owing civil servants and pensioners? How did he manage to clear all debts and leave funds for his successor ? He had put on record the fact that he left a whopping N75 billion for the future generation of the state. Like yours truly had done in the past, one can attest to the fact that some $155million was invested in the tier two capital of three Nigerian banks with maturities of about 5 years at interest rates of up to 9% per annum to the credit of the State. As at the time the investments were made, the Naira equivalent of the funds was about N25b. If those funds were rolled over at maturity in 2019, they would be worth about N62b today. If interest is assumed to remain at 9% for the past 6 years, an additional N33.5b would have accrued to bring the present value of the investments to over N95b. This is one of the advantages of prudence and financial literacy.

Peter Obi realised from day one that running a large government was undesirable. The first thing he did was to rationalise the size of government and therefore, expenditure. He also lived a frugal life. All the extravagance of leadership had no place in his government. Some people would argue that he overdid it, but it worked. You would always find him in the economy cabin of planes, he would travel alone most of the time, carrying his bags, he would refuse to stay in high-brow and expensive hotels, preferring to stay in cheaper hotels where he would negotiate the rates to the bare bones, he would not be seen in a long convoy, he would refuse to do lavish entertainments at the Governor’s lodge and elsewhere, and most importantly, he would refuse to give the proverbial “blood tonic” a euphemism for sharing government money to people who are mere parasites and contribute nothing positive to the development of the state.

Saving money is important but delivering value to the populace is even more important. Peter Obi understood this. He improved the quality of education in the state to the extent that it came into strong reckoning as it ranked Number One both at NECO and WAEC for several years during his tenor. He returned missionary schools to their original owners and gave them financial support to run those schools. He built a University at Igbo Ariam and built and equipped several hospitals. The state became “smaller” in terms of travel time as he connected most communities by building very good roads. He also understood that the only way to sustain the growth of the state was to support the private sector. He supported the establishment of one of the few if not the only vehicle manufacturing company in Nigeria, Innoson Motors and patronised the company. He promoted “Made in Anambra” by patronising products manufactured in Nnewi, Onitsha and Awka. Interestingly, with all these feats, Anambra was the only non-indebted state as at the time he left office in 2014.

As stated above, the governor of Bauchi State revealed that on the average, his predecessors spent N50m on every trip to Abuja. These trips, we all know, could happen once every week or even more frequently. This situation is obviously not limited to Bauchi State and it is clearly one of the ways through which state treasuries are looted. According to the concerned Governor, he has now reduced that cost to between N3m and N5m per trip. In Peter Obi’s governance model, such an amount is still too much. We must commend Governor Bala Mohammed for the courage not only to depart from the past, but to expose it. Gov. Hope Uzodinma of Imo State has just signed a bill abrogating payment of “pensions” to former Governors, Deputy Governors and Speakers of the state. This very ridiculous practice was put in place by self-serving former governors in states for no other reason except looting the states’ treasury even after their tenor. It is surprising that someone does a job for 4 or 8 years and allocates to himself, humongous payments in perpetuity while salaries and pensions of people who genuinely worked for 35 years in the civil service may remain unpaid for several months.

The only reason Profligacy seems to have triumphed over prudence in Nigeria is that the citizens condone and accept it. The saying that every society gets the kind of leadership it deserves, cannot be truer. We can at least demand accountability from our leaders. But to do this, we must first begin to show interest in the issues. We must also pay attention to how leadership emerges in our little corners. When you do not show interest, you are then asking for the wrong leaders. Elsewhere, before one aspires to an office a few issues must be resolved, and an agenda set out for the electorate and the aspirants to engage in a public discourse. A situation where a few individuals sit down and decide who they want to impose hardly brings the right kind of leadership. After all, everything succeeds and fails on the altar of leadership. Like it is said, the fish gets rotten from the head. It therefore behooves on all of us to consider the following six critical issues and ask important questions before we allow anyone to lead us.

In considering the critical elements in leadership, the first issue is Character. Character is indeed everything. We must be sure of where the prospective leader is coming from in terms of his upbringing, his past experiences and his morals. It is our opinion that a verbal agreement with a man of character is more enforceable than a written contract with a thief. In banking, the most important factor to consider in lending is character. Ability to pay is not as important as the willingness to pay.

The second issue is Capacity. A popular Latin dictum has it that ‘nemo dat quod non habet’, which means that one cannot give what one does not have. We have situations where we choose leaders who do not have the mental capacity to understand what is expected of them. So, for those kinds of leaders, they miss the plot from Day One. For them, it is all about what they can grab and not what legacy they can leave behind. In a society like ours that hardly holds leadership to account, it is easy for them to get away with it. Posterity does not seem to matter much to people today even though it will judge all of us in the final analysis.

The third issue is that of Culture. Simply defined, we are talking of how we do our things and what our expectations are. This is important because what we sow is what we reap. If we accept a situation where someone pays for everything including our votes, it becomes difficult for us to have the moral basis to hold them to account when they do not perform. After all, they have paid upfront and must recoup their money. Little do many realise that the pittance they received to vote for the wrong leader is the reason why our roads are never built, why hospitals and schools are not equipped and why salaries remain unpaid.

The next issue to focus on is Construct. This refers to the structure and the frame of the leadership we expect. Some people come into governance without promising anything. They hardly have an idea of what they have come to do in governance. If you are not promised anything, then do not expect anything. If you do receive anything at all, then it is a bonus.

Editors Seek FG's Bailout for Media
The fifth issue is Conscientiousness, also known as Diligence. This is one of the most important factors in the leadership selection exercise. A leader must be someone who desires to serve not one intent on looting his people. Collecting humongous security votes and travel allowances when your constituents are going to bed hungry and sick can only happen when such a person lacks conscience. Owing workers who have put in equal day’s work for months does not show leadership. Not equipping hospitals where the people would go for medical attention is an example of the kind of people not to be found around leadership. And there are a lot of other examples to give here. It is sad that some of our leaders will squander state resources on hedonistic pursuits, when what such endeavours cost them in a year is enough to set up at least one hospital that will provide much needed service to even themselves and their families.

The last one is Competence. To aspire to leadership, it is expected that one should have distinguished oneself in an area of human endeavour. One of the problems we have is that we have become so lethargic that jobless people who call themselves career politicians have invaded the political scene and we seem to have condoned it. Elsewhere, you must have credentials before presenting yourself for leadership at any level. In so doing, our focus should be on merit rather than primordial considerations like ethnicity, religion, or gender.

It is because of the wrong choices we had made in the past that we are in this unfortunate situation where the entire country appears helpless in just a few months of lockdown. Covid -19 once again provides us an opportunity to re-examine ourselves and our choices. As we battle the pandemic, leaders who have refused to invest in infrastructure and public health are stuck with the populace and there is nowhere to go. Somehow, the old natural law holds true, ‘You cannot cheat Nature’.

FROM MADAGASCAR WITH LOVE

By ALEX OTTI (OUTSIDE THE BOX)
This Day Back Page. May 25, 2020.

“Herbal medicine has been around for thousands of years! Indeed, it has and we tested it all, and the stuff that worked became “medicine”. And the rest of it is just a nice bowl of soup and some potpourri” – Dara O Briain

“The person who takes medicine must recover twice, once from the disease and once from the medicine”- William Osler

The Republic of Madagascar is an Island country off the coast of East Africa. She is a former French Colony that secured independence in 1960. Their main economic resources are textiles, tourism, agriculture, and mining. About 52% of the population practise traditional religion while the rest are predominantly Christians. It has a population of about 26 million people and covers an area of 592, 800 square kilometers (for proper context Nigeria covers an area of 923,768 square kilometers making Madagascar 64% the size of Nigeria). Still on the comparative plane, Madagascar has 44,000 people per square kilometre while Nigeria has 216,500 people per square kilometre. An interesting fact about Madagascar is that it is blessed with various plants and animals that can hardly be found anywhere else in the world. No less than 170 palm species can only be found in Madagascar.

In fact, it is on record that more than 80% of the country’s close to 15,000 plant species are endemic, meaning they can only be found in Madagascar. Many of these plants over centuries, have been used as natural herbal remedies for different ailments. Some popular drugs for the treatment of leukemia and other types of cancer are made from Madagascar Periwinkle, a plant whose scientific name is “Catharanthus roseus”. Madagascar Periwinkle is also used for treatment of diabetes, sore throat, cough, and lung congestion.

The advent of the novel Coronavirus Pandemic has once more brought to the fore, the debate about the efficacy and safety of traditional healing methods as against the seemingly more sophisticated and modern orthodox medicine. Some people refer to them as alternative medicine versus western or conventional medicine. We are of the view that Western medicine would always find itself on a collision course with traditional healing therapy as the latter would not always lend itself to scientific tests and proofs. This becomes even more so as the steps for scientific examination and tests are set by western medicine itself.

I recall vividly, a lecture delivered at the end of February this year, by Mr. Ugochukwu Okoroafor, a retired Director of the Central Bank of Nigeria, at the graduation ceremony of students of the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences of the University of Port Harcourt.

Excerpts of that lecture, ‘Facing the Brave Future’, were published on the back page of this newspaper on March 7, 2020. That lecture was delivered just before Covid-19 was declared a pandemic and his observations could not have been more prescient! He had challenged the fresh pharmacists interested in pharmacology, to embark on ‘Herb and Lab’ initiatives, in which they would pay more attention to the discovery and mainstreaming of the bounties of the African rainforests which habour numerous herbs and plants that could hold the solutions to many of the world’s intractable diseases and illnesses. He also warned against the persisting ‘Illicit Gin Mentality’, in which we have been brainwashed into accepting everything from the West as superior, while rejecting our age-old solutions and alternatives. According to Mr. Okoroafor, “those familiar with history will recall handily that one way the colonialists protected their export market, like Nigeria, for their infamous ‘fire water’ – gins, whisky and schnapps, was to slam their local equivalent, with the demeaning name of ‘illicit gin’. For good measure, the subliminally powerful word, ‘Imported’ was put on such foreign tipple. Somehow, the sobriquet and the mentality of ‘illicit gin’, has remained with us long after colonisation”. We have been made to perceive most of our indigenous practices and products as ‘illicit’. In the search for a cure for Covid-19, the ‘Illicit Gin mentality’ seems to be playing out once again. We must guard against that and ensure that we champion our own brew. This could be the clarion call to banish that mentality for good!

The Madagascar Covid -Organics (CVO) is said to be the cure for Covid -19. Madagascar had touted this therapy as being efficacious in the control of the Pandemic in the country. As at the time the country was pushing the CVO therapy, Madagascar had very low numbers of infections and no death related to the pandemic.

Recently, the country has recorded two deaths and hundreds of infections. But they still believe that their therapy works and have been promoting it particularly in Africa. Early adopters of the Madagascar therapy include Tanzania, The Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), and Senegal. In fact, the case of Senegal is interesting because it has done a good job of local production of cheaper alternatives in the fight against the Pandemic. It is reported that Senegalese scientists invented a $1 dollar testing kit that produces quicker results than the huge PCR molecular testing machine that is not only very expensive but relatively inefficient, in terms of getting test results. Senegal also locally produced cheap ventilators that cost about $60 a piece as against imported ones that cost around $16,000. Not too long ago, Nigeria joined the other African countries to place orders for the CVO. The consignment, which was delivered by the President of Guinea Bissau, Umaro Embalo to President Buhari was accompanied by an invoice of 170,000.00 Euros, (about N78m).

The CVO is a herb therapy from a plant known as Artemisia Annua. Artemisia is not new to the medical world as it is a herb that has malaria treatment capability. The use of Artemisia dates back to 340BC when it was identified as part of Chinese traditional anti malarial medicine. The more familiar drug Coartem designated by the World Health Organisation(WHO) as one of the most effective anti-malarial treatment, comes from Artemisia therapy. Also, from this family is another anti malaria drug known as Artesunate.

Orthodox Medicine has, however, refused to accept CVO as a cure for Covid-19. The President of Madagascar, Andre Rajoelina has consistently accused WHO of refusing to recognise the homegrown therapy because it is made in Africa. WHO on its own part continues to warn against the use of Covid-Organics as a cure because it has not gone through the approved protocols that would enable it to be certified as a course of treatment for Covid-19. The protocols are like a book work. Unless it satisfies the rigorous scientific process, WHO cannot lend its name to it. This process relies heavily on clinical tests, more tests and replications, just like any other laboratory work. It is imperative that for a drug to be certified by WHO, that drug must go through the rigor of clinical tests and it takes time.

Sometimes, you would be talking about 12 to 24 months. The other observable challenge is that herbs, plants and other traditional medication would find it difficult to pass the tests and get certifications. But we are all witnesses to the efficacy of traditional or alternative medicine in dealing with common ailments in Africa. Some of us as young people and growing up in villages, hardly visited hospitals nor took western medication. If one had malaria which was the common disease at that time, one was made to take drinks from some medicinal plants like Agbo or Dogonyaro, also known as Neem leaf. Other leaves and plants that are known to be medicinal are Bitterleaf, Bitter kola, Moringa, Aloe Vera, Scent leaf, Candle plant, Lettuce, Mint leaf, Water leaf and so on.

Alternative medicine seems to be losing its place in most parts of Africa. In the first place, the blurred line between divinity, spiritualism, mysticism, magic and herbalism did not help traditional African medicine. So, when the traditional healer also administers herbs and plants, he is derogatorily described as a native doctor. But we know that a lot of the western medicine as we know them today have something to do with herbs, plants and other naturally occurring substances. The blanket perception of herbs and plant therapy as inferior to the western medication has left our God given resources and the intellect that goes with it, fallow. We believe that this is the perspective from which the Madagascar President has been fighting. We believe that we should not leave Madagascar alone to wage this war. It may be true that Madagascar has not treated enough people with CVO to warrant its proclamation. It may even be that the therapy is not an effective treatment for Covid-19, but just like President Trump would ask when he was being pilloried for pronouncing HydroxylChloroquine the treatment for Covid-19, what do you have to lose? Some of these therapies are taken as tea, coffee, soft drinks or even as they are, so the argument of side effects and safety hold no water. Again, some recovered patients have claimed that their symptoms were similar to malaria symptoms and they recovered after taking drugs used for malaria treatment and since Artemisia is a proven therapy for malaria, it won’t be unreasonable to expect that the CVO would work.

There are no less than eight lessons to learn from Madagascar with respect to their therapy. The first is that, as a country blessed with natural resources and not just oil, but plants and leaves, we should recognise the medicinal qualities of these resources. These qualities had always been there as explained earlier.

Secondly, we should invest in research and development using the skills of our brilliant human resources to convert them into medicines for treatment of common diseases that afflict us instead of waiting for western medicine which may rely on the same resources found at our backyard.

Third, we should not underrate the place of packaging. The way Madagascar bottled and branded the Organics makes it very attractive even to those who would rather describe it as quackery.

Fourth, we should stand up and defend our innovations and civilizations against attack by forces outside our influence and not be intimidated into adopting only what they approve.

Fifth, even when we don’t get the approval or recognition of the western world or even China for that matter, Africa, with a population of over 1.3 billion people and of course Nigeria with 15% of that population, is a large enough market for our products and innovations and we should work to capture the local market first even if the rest of the world refused to patronise us.

The sixth lesson is that forthrightness pays. This is borne out of the fact that WHO, an institution which refused to pay attention to the Madagascar formulation just a few days ago, has finally started to engage the government of Madagascar. It has been reported that the WHO Director General, Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus, has had a virtual meeting with President Rajoelina on the Covid Organics formulation where the former agreed to sign a confidentiality agreement and promised to support the clinical observations in Africa. There’s no doubt that this concession by WHO only happened because Madagascar stuck to its guns, started shipping the therapy to African countries and carried out a strong campaign for its use, a campaign which many African countries signed on to.

The seventh lesson from Madagascar is that we should pay more attention to the political economy of the whole medical and pharmaceutical industry than anything else including saving lives. That is why no matter how much we try to fight it, the conspiracy theories do not seem to want to go away. Some people have even argued that the virus was manufactured to enable the big pharmaceutical industry do more business. It is therefore imperative to understand that any inventions not coming from ‘the usual suspects’, would find it difficult to be accepted. Meanwhile, the direction from where vaccines and cures are expected, says we should wait another one year even as more deaths are recorded daily. The eight and final lesson from Madagascar is that there is no free lunch even, as they say, in Freetown. When the campaign to ship CVO to African countries started, some of us thought Madagascar was sending free samples to brother African countries to test and confirm the efficacy of the therapy and then decide to place an order or not. That was not going to be! If we were in the shoes of Madagascar, we would have been generous enough to despatch the formulation free of charge. Madagascar is not wired that way. As you received your consignment, you received an accompanying bill with it. That was why our own portion came with an invoice. Given that it was going to be paid for, recipient countries would take it seriously and Madagascar will remain in business.

Now, to our Covid experts, we have a question for you: how is the Madagascar therapy doing?

Please permit me to wish our Muslim faithfuls a happy Sallah celebration. Eid Mubarak.

Dr. Akex Otti's interview with Azuka Onwuzor will be showing tomorrow at 8am on Africanews DSTV channel 417 and GOTV channel 47.

Tune in to watch the financial expert share his thoughts on the post-COVID-19 African economy.

There will also be repeat broadcasts by 10am, 11am and 12pm."

https://www.africanews.com/live/

Who Made the Clothes You are Wearing?
editorMay 11, 2020 1:55 Am

BY ALEX OTTI (OUTSIDE THE BOX)

“Say she looking into my eyes and she seeing designer

Gucci, Dolce & Gabbana (Dolce & Gabbana)

Dolce & Gabbana (Dolce & Gabbana), yeah”

David Adeleke, popularly known as ‘Davido’, is the son of my brother, Dr. Adedeji Adeleke. Davido is in a sense my son and I take him as such. The 27-year old star has done wonders with his talent and even though he didn’t need to work too hard for his daily bread, considering his clearly privileged background, he is a good example of self-reliance and diligence. He has remained very successful in his chosen field; a cultural icon and influencer, a significant economic agent and an employer of labour in today’s Nigeria.

Towards the end of last year, Davido released a song titled ‘D&G’, which stands for Dolce & Gabbana. Part of the lyrics of the song has been reproduced above. The song, just like many others in his repertoire, became an instant hit. Dolce & Gabbana is an Italian luxury design company that sells premium and expensive apparel. It was set up 35 years ago by Domenico Dolce and Stefano Gabbana. It has become so successful that its 2018 revenues hit $1.5bn, with over 3,000 employees, across the world. This same song mentioned another brand, Gucci, a much older Italian luxury goods designer brand that has been around for almost 100 years. Gucci’s annual revenues as at 2017, stood in excess of $7bn from its operations at over 550 locations across the world. These brands, together with many others, have dominated the clothing industry for years. Here in Nigeria, it is a mark of success to adorn some of these designs. Just like any other thing, fake versions of the original products continue to compete for space. Interestingly, many of these designers had since outsourced manufacturing of parts or the whole products to countries with cheap labour. In other words, the only thing that they do is lend their name to the third world efforts and simply tell them what they want produced for them.

The production units of these well-known brand names are found in many parts of the developing economies, mainly Asia, but some Latin American and even some hard-working African countries, have joined in producing for these big designer companies. Sometimes, in efforts to cut costs, these production facilities are turned into ‘sweat shops’, where unscrupulous labour practices are carried out. Generally, they are very good sources for base manufacturing, and it has been one of the platforms that countries like China, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam, have used to launch into technology transfer.

Unfortunately, Nigeria has not been a beneficiary of the outsourcing policies, despite the tailoring prowess of cities like Aba. The reason for this is not far-fetched. Being a consumption-oriented society, we are amongst the top contributors to the success of some of these businesses, which we should be operating. And as these businesses continue to flourish, our local currency, industrial capacity, labour market and skills continue to struggle. One of the sectors that has born a lot of the brunt is the Textile Industry, better known as the Cotton, Textile and Garment (CTG) Industry.

The advent of Coronavirus has forcefully brought our attention to the fact that we must think and act differently. In fact, the message staring us in the face is that we must hit the reset button and recalibrate our economy and its structure if we are to survive the crisis. Job Creation and poverty reduction are major areas of focus. The reality of insufficient foreign currency inflows and the need to manage the post Covid -19 foreign exchange market, would require that we think deeply about those sectors that would reduce the demand pressure on foreign currency. One of such sectors in our opinion, is the moribund CTG industry. Up until early 1990s there were over 180 textile mills in the country employing directly, over 500,000 people. It was the largest employer of labour after the Public Sector. One of its most recognisable employees is the current Chairman of the ruling APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. His claim to fame started from his days as a labour leader in the textile industry. These mills relied on the supply of cotton from over 600,000 local cotton farmers in addition to other indirect engagements in the logistics and transport segments of the chain. These cotton farmers were spread amongst 30 out of the 36 states of the federation. By 1995, Nigeria joined the World Trade Organisation and in accordance with WTO rules, Nigeria had to remove any protection of the local textile industry. This singular action threw our borders open to unfair competition and importation and smuggling of textile and garments from Asia and other parts of the world. In view of the fact that these other countries had cheaper production costs and smarter economic policies, which included dumping where necessary, our CTG Industry came under ferocious attack. The result was that in less than a decade, we were down to less than 30 textile mills with less than 40,000 jobs available. Cotton farming, naturally disappeared with the 600,000 farmers thrown into the job(less) market.

There was a lot of other difficulties that this industry had faced and continues to face. One of them is very high operating cost profile. Closely related to costs is lack of basic infrastructure and overall government neglect. This was one of the ugly consequences of dependence on oil. The infrastructural problem that came from this type of neglect, remains a major challenge to every industry in the country today. Companies operating in Nigeria, are left to generate their own electricity, water and transportation and these are what competitors producing in Asia and Europe take for granted. In an open market, products from Nigeria stand no chance to compete in price, even if they were of better quality. Therefore, opening local products to competition with imported ones is akin to sending a boxer to the ring in a champion fight, with his hands tied behind his back. The result was predictable and that is exactly what happened to Nigeria’s products.

Even where the cost structures were similar, countries have been known to implement a dumping policy on others, if just to crush competition and attain market dominance. Some countries take a strategic decision to subsidise some industries like the USA will always do for agriculture to keep its farmers in business and protect local jobs, local capacity and most importantly, food security. Again, smuggling has been the bane of Nigeria’s textile industry. Even when outright bans have been officially pronounced, smugglers would ensure that those policies would benefit the illicit trade. We believe that the closure of the borders even before the pandemic was to frustrate smugglers and drive them out of business. While this may work for a moment, we hold the view that this policy is not based on sound economic fundamentals and is therefore not sustainable. Our belief is that we must get policies of government to work and if those vested with the authority to ensure compliance compromise instead, we should deal with them as the law demands, rather than work around them. Of course, we must also give them the required tools and incentives that will help them deliver.

We should not lose sight of the fact that the elements in the value chain in the CTG sector include cotton growing, ginneries, spinning and weaving, printing and garments production. While textiles may look like the strongest link in the chain, Cotton remains the primary product or element and without it, the rest of the sector is doomed to fail. Though cotton may appear to be ubiquitous in the country, the quality of naturally occurring species is poor and susceptible to devastation by pests. Yield per hectare is below the standards witnessed in the competitor countries that currently have market dominance. This has a strong impact on the quality of final products. To deal with the issue of quality of seedlings, two home-grown genetically modified varieties known as BT cotton, have been approved by government and we must commend that action. These varieties are neither subject to pest attacks nor low yields. By the way, experts claim that devastating insect pests cause a cotton yield loss of about 60 percent. With the government approved varieties, use of excessive chemicals to control insects become unnecessary and the yield is exceptionally high. Again, the higher yields possible with BT cotton will help cotton farmers to transit from subsistence to large-scale farming.

The WTO scenario that got the country into a free trade agreement, even though avoidable, fits into an ideological debate. A school of thought argues that the economy has an in built self-regulating mechanism, called ‘market forces’. This phenomenon deals with the side effects of the interplay of demand and supply in the market. A subsequent modification of this position was propounded by another school of thought which holds that there is actually no such thing as in-built mechanism and therefore assigns government the major role of intervening, to ensure that the economy continues to work smoothly for its citizens. The removal of protective hedges around our textile industry and as a matter of fact other industries, is largely the reason for the de-industrialisation of the Nigerian economy. If you subject everything to the classical economic theory of market forces, you may end up destroying your economy. It is too early to forget that the unregulated creation of mortgage loans in the USA led to the sub-prime- lending-induced economic crises of 2008/2009. We are therefore of the view that both the Federal and State Governments should use this pandemic opportunity to pursue a policy of self-reliance, import dependency reversal and job creation. If this is accepted, the CTG industry comes to mind as a low hanging fruit. The governments mentioned above should not be afraid to support this industry with subsidies, grants and cheap loans, to help it mature and become competitive again. This is the whole idea of protection of infant industries. These measures should be implemented now and driven to such a level that any importation cannot effectively withstand local competition in the marketplace.

We are not unaware of the different efforts made by present and past administrations in the last ten years to resuscitate this vital sector of our economy. On record is the N30bn loan scheme set up by the Bank of Industry in 2010 to revive the textile industry. Our opinion is that it is not just about throwing money at the industry. A comprehensive policy framework and the enabling laws to protect the industry must be in place before we bring in the cash otherwise, it will simply go down the drain, as would seem to have been the case thus far. The General Secretary of the National Union of Textile, Garment and Tailoring Workers Of Nigeria, my good friend and brother, Comrade Issa Aremu had consistently argued that the textile industry sustained the regional governments of old and that state governments should pay more attention to this potential cash cow for job creation and internally generated revenue. One could understand that the oil windfall made it unattractive to heed this advice. With the current situation in the international crude oil market, one believes that the attention of the state governments should shift to this alternative revenue source.

In appreciation of the point being made here, the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, had also made commendable moves to protect this industry by restricting importation of textile materials and pronouncing textile ineligible for allocation of foreign exchange at official rates. While that would have helped, the truth is that it will have relatively little impact as importers would naturally source funding from unofficial sources. In reality, this is what they have been doing ever since. If this industry can contribute close to 60% of export revenue, 8.5% to GDP and 45% of total employment for Pakistan; 81% of export earnings, 12.4% of GDP and over 60% of labour force for Bangladesh and 2% of GDP and 45 million direct jobs as well as 15% of export earnings for India, then it is a sector that we ignore at our own peril. It is even more apposite to point out that before the onset of the oil boom, Nigeria was one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton!

As we struggle to diversify and replace oil as our major foreign exchange earner and economic driver, we recommend that both the states and the federal government should pay greater attention to the CTG industry given that cotton exists in most of the states. The last time we checked, over $4bn was the annual import bill for textile. It is most likely that this bill has declined now but it is arguable that this decline has led to any positive impact on job creation or production capacity in the country so far. A more comprehensive and well-coordinated policy is therefore an imperative now. We should make deliberate efforts to support the sector the same way we had supported the oil sector for decades. We should put money at the disposal of the industry and ensure that we have knowledgeable people who would ensure flawless execution of agreed deliverables. As we embark on these reform measures, we must also ensure that our superstars begin to show greater faith and support for our locally made goods. We should ensure that great Nigerians personalities who have a cult following in many parts of the world proudly buy and wear made in Nigeria clothes. If we do nothing, then the Guccis and D&Gs of this world would continue to dominate this market with products made in China and Bangladesh, not to talk of other African countries.

CORONAVIRUS: THE MORNING AFTER

BY ALEX OTTI

‘Put first things first and second things are thrown in. Put second things first and you lose both first and second things.’ – C.S. Lewis

Not too long ago, the President of the US, Donald Trump, was engaged in a fierce war of words with Kim Jong Un, his North Korean counterpart, ostensibly over the testing of submarine ballistic missiles. The muscle flexing included stepping up of the usually controversial US/South Korea joint military drills and exercises in the peninsular. North Korea threatened fire and brimstone and in response, Kim Jong Un carried out an intimidating display of sophisticated military arsenals and launch of various categories of ballistic missiles, to warn his adversaries that his country should not be taken lightly. The world was amazed at the military sophistication displayed by North Korea. Of course, no one doubts the strength of the US when it comes to sophisticated military apparatus and defence spending, after all, it is the number one superpower. It took an unprecedented peace meeting between Trump and Kim to deescalate the hostilities and start a denuclearization program.

Today, the exchanges and meetings along the Korean peninsular are like irritants to the rest of the world that is fighting a real enemy that is killing rampantly in thousands. Trump is trying everything to stop the spread of Covid 19 and reduce the death toll, including recommending unproven and even ridiculous ‘therapies’ like the use of disinfectants and ultraviolet rays. Kim on the other hand is reportedly battling to stay alive after a surgery that didn’t seem to have gone well. Clearly, the massive investments in defence and the stockpiling of armaments have been rendered useless in a War in which the world is threatened by a little, invisible and unarmed virus.

One thing that is clear is that by the time these difficult times would be over, the world would not be the same again. Amazingly, no one in positions of influence and authority seemed to have foreseen this catastrophe a few months ago. Economies have tanked and markets have behaved in ways that were thought impossible just days ago. For instance, who, three months ago, would have thought that producers of oil would be begging buyers to take the dark stuff from them even for free or fee payable by the seller? It is projected that by June, the world will run out of storage space for crude oil. Demand has dropped dramatically as factories have closed, airlines are grounded, and transportation has come to a virtual stop in many parts of the world.

It is obvious that priorities will change in the emerging post Covid-19 era and the world may begin to focus on what is truly important. Abraham Maslow propounded what is widely known as the “The Theory of The Hierarchy Of Needs”, in which he stated that man’s needs are ordered hierarchically as in a pyramid, starting at the base with Physiological needs, Safety needs, Social belonging needs, Self-esteem needs and finally Self actualisation needs. The first level (Physiological needs) and the most important need of man is made up of the rudimentary necessities of life, which would include health, food, shelter, clothing, and sleep. These are basic needs which, only when met, would trigger the need for the satisfaction of other relatively less important, even though necessary needs. In just a few months the needs of people around the world have been reduced to the basic and physiological. Interestingly, many countries of the world will be unable to even fulfill these needs for most of the population.

Our thesis today is about preparing ourselves and our nation for the end of Covid 19. One thing we are certain about is that the Pandemic will end one day. We may not be sure of when or how it will end but we can hazard a guess as to the state that it would leave us as it ends. This is not a difficult task as we are not in doubt about where we are, just 4 months after its debut. Our economy is already in a mess. The global supply chain has been disrupted in both the consumer and producer sides of the divide. The only country shipping anything at all for now is China. Even at that, a significant component of its shipment comprises food, personal protection equipment and medicaments. Those are what is important to the rest of the world now. The USA, for instance, has run out of face masks, gloves, ventilators and respirators. Ironically, it had to receive help from Russia and in what could be seen as a diplomatic coup, Russia sent America medical materials manufactured by a firm that is under sanctions. The physiological need was more important in the transaction. The case is not different across the world. Investments in high technology applications and appliances not related to healthcare, specifically treatment of Covid-19, have been put on hold. Of course, any investment that is not channeled to physiological needs at this time, is dead on arrival. However, while we prepare for extended co-existence with Covid 19, one thing that is clear nevertheless, is that the economy has gone into a tailspin which will ultimately lead us into a recession by October this year. In fact, if care is not taken, it will degenerate into a depression. This is the stark reality and we must begin to think of how to deal with it.

We had stated many times before that we should start planning for a post oil economy. We were not even expecting a catastrophe like Covid-19 then, but everybody knew that the mono product economy we had been running, was not sustainable. Granted that oil prices may, in the medium to long term recover, we must now seriously begin to think of replacing oil as the driver of the Nigerian economy. One fact brought home to us once more, is the need for the diversification of the economy. Luckily, we are a country blessed with material and human resources to make this happen. We must get more serious and decide that much of what we cannot manufacture here, we do not need. This will help us boost our productive capacity and support a self-reliant economy. Closely related to this is the curse of import dependency. We seem to be hooked on the conspicuous consumption of foreign products at the detriment of locally made ones. Unfortunately, this pandemic has brought us face to face with a major foreign currency scarcity the way we haven’t seen it in many years. So, even if we choose not to tame our appetite, the reality of the scarcity of foreign currency would force us to adjust. We are aware CBN is trying to stabilise the foreign exchange market, but it can only do so much as it cannot give what it doesn’t have. Therefore, devaluation or whatever fancy name we wish to call it has started happening and will continue given the circumstance. We will, therefore, have fewer dollars to commit to avoidable importation of foreign goods to meet our acquired tastes. CBN will do well to prioritise allocations that have direct impact on physiological needs, and they are not many.

As identified by Maslow, a major Physiological need of man is food. Covid-19 has taught us that we can do without a wide range of things, but not food. This has been demonstrated by the reaction of people during the lockdown where some had to disregard the policy in search of food. There is no doubt that any government that can guarantee the availability of food can implement an effective lockdown policy for a long period of time. While we had argued that the best way to ensure people have food to eat is to make money available to them, we must concede that to make it a reality, the food itself must be available to be bought. This means that we must have food security as a top priority for Nigeria, post Covid-19. One of the ways to ensure food security is not by implementing an indefinite lockdown policy. In fact, doing so, would ensure that by the time the pandemic ends, starvation would take over and that situation may be as harmful, if not more than the virus. It is against this background that we call on the federal government to consider easing the lockdown in an articulate and well-coordinated manner. Given that the planting season is here, state governors should begin to open their states ensuring adequate protection for citizens and observing social and physical distancing in addition to other protocols against the virus. This becomes very necessary since we are aware that even in the face of the lockdown, the spread has continued, and no one can say for sure when the virus will disappear. In the immediate term, the government should also see agriculture as the new oil and channel all the energy that it hitherto lavished on oil into agriculture. Cash calls and cash support should henceforth be extended to this sector if we want to see a post Covid-19 well-fed citizens.

Covid-19 has opened our underbelly with respect to our criminal neglect of our healthcare sector. No one could fathom that there was going to be a day when our rich people would not be able to fly abroad for medical needs. Before now, some rich people would boast that they did not have any doctor in Nigeria. “My personal physician is in the US, Harley Street in London, Germany, Dubai and Singapore” you would hear some people say. Others would tout India and Saudi Arabia. Now we are all holed up in Nigeria, our physicians have become overstretched. I believe that post Covid-19, we shall all insist that our public health system be properly funded and seriously revived. Something good that one observed as we fight Covid-19 is that the feat of setting up medical facilities in record time is not the preserve of China. We observed serious state governments and the private sector, set up medical facilities with hundreds of beds and isolation centres fitted with ventilators, in a matter of one week, or two . This gives a lot of comfort as it means that once we seriously put our minds into something, we can achieve them. We believe that we should build on, rather than lose, the momentum. We should also support the facilities with well trained personnel. One is not oblivious of the very low standard of education and the practice of medical experts taking flight in search of greener pastures. Our experience should teach us that we must begin now to plant those greener pastures here and start the process of reversing the human resource flight to enable us get our people back and attract other African skilled professionals to the country.

We expect to see more investment in education and Research and Development (R&). We have written extensively on education and we believe that we all agree that we have failed our nation on education. As the world is battling to find a cure and vaccine, we should not just be spectators. A massive investment in R& would help us pioneer efforts in finding solutions to our problems be they in healthcare, education, technology or agriculture. Innovation is the result of effective R&. The world economy is ruled by innovators. Science and technology depend largely on R&. We should get our scientists and engineers busy in the laboratories. That was how China did it. And talking about China, we believe that we can take over a chunk of manufacturing and global supply chain from them, post Covid-19. Prior to this time, China was the manufacturer of the world. Many countries are now rethinking that strategy of outsourcing manufacturing to China. In fact, Japan is offering incentives for Japanese companies to relocate back to Japan and elsewhere. The US has hinted at that also. We have the population and if we have the will, we can attract part of that market to Nigeria.

There is no doubt that we will not be able to fund the national budget for 2020 and beyond. We are likely to add at least another $10b loan to our existing debt profile, thus taking us to about $95b. Given the massive drop in revenues we will be unable to service the debt. Government should therefore begin to engage our creditors for debt relief and cancellation as that is the only option we have. In any case, we will not be the only ones asking for that. But the bad news is that the additional debt would not do much to prevent the crises. The only choice we have is to perform a surgical operation on the public sector to get rid of excess fat. We cannot afford the bloated public sector expenditure anymore. The monthly sharing ritual in Abuja would come to an end shortly because there will be nothing to share. Those who have been addicted to the despicable feeding bottle would have to fend for themselves. It is then that we will understand that building infrastructure and attracting investments and businesses to our states are no luxury. We will also understand that governments are run by taxes and not handouts. To collect taxes, you must have created some prosperity for the taxpayers. The public sector must not only yield to the private sector but support it for economic survival. The Federal government would have to work with the CBN to implement a quantitative easing policy to stimulate the economy. This, again can only work if implemented at the private sector side of the economy.

Many other sectors of the economy must change. Travels, both local and international will take time to recover. The aviation sector realises this and is already downsizing. Markets, both wet and dry would suffer, particularly in the urban areas. Stores, malls and digital platforms would be the beneficiaries. Social distancing will not abate very soon. Businesses that depend on crowds should reassess their business model as people would rather watch movies in their houses than go to a cinema, for instance.

Let us conclude by stating that many of our postulations remain in the realm of wishes. If we choose to seize the moment, out of the ashes of this pandemic, we shall emerge a stronger economy. As usual, we may also refuse to take advantage of this opportunity and sink deeper into the abyss. The choice is ours!