Those who believe Mr Tinubu is sure to lose in 2027 underestimate the complex machinations of political actors.

1. Other than Osun, an Atiku PDP won't win any state in the South West in 2027.

2. Mr Tinubu is unlikely to lose any State he won in the South South in 2023.

3. Nothing has changed to suggest there will be any significant change in the North Central.

4. Mr Tinubu will do better in the South East than last time. Exactly what happened with President Buhari.

5. He will do nearly as well as he did in 2023 in Kaduna, Kano, Sokoto, Katsina etc particularly if the recent successes against terrorists are sustained.

6. The North East will be very similar.

Add the fact that PDP is in disarray, Mr Tinubu still has a good chance of winning.

Mr Atiku has to conjure some kind of magic to wrestle PDP from Mr Wike's control.

I suspect these people are clearly going to Ibadan to receive further directions and next steps from the Wike faction.

No doubt, they will be pampered during the visit.

After that, they'll be ready to resist the other camp for as long as possible.

When Student loan was introduced, many students particularly in the South did not apply because they bought the 'its all propaganda' narrative pumped out on social media.

It is unfortunate they got themselves into that situation.

Hope they get the assistance they need.

Guestlander:
Palliatives are not the way to go but suggested "the government should provide affordable food options by buying and selling essential items at lower prices."

And what exactly do you call that?

Abi o.

Hopespeaks:
Tinubu should please reverse everything.

By 'everything', I assume you mean fuel subsidy in particular.

Well, it can be done, but there will be severe economic consequences.

If the president announces that he is restoring full subsidy, the international institutions lending Nigeria money will stop doing so. Naira will immediately fall to around N2,000, and slowly move towards N2500 and beyond.

Any benefit people gain from the reintroduction of full subsidy will be lost as prices of everything imported will shoot up to unprecedented levels. Prices of locally produced goods will follow.

So, as you can see, reversing subsidy removal can be done. Nobody will stop Nigeria from doing it. But the pain thereafter will be worse than before. We should be prepared to buy a loaf of bread for N3000 or N4000. May be N5000 or N6,000. Not possible? Ask the people of Lebanon.

See Venezuela, Iran etc for developing countries that don't generate enough revenue but still refused to remove subsidy.

We know what would happen to food prices as soon as the federal government starts buying up foods on a massive scale from those producing the foods. Prices will shoot up. Especially, when part of the problem is that there is not enough being produced due to security and other factors.

Add government bureaucracy and corruption, prices will end up being higher than it is now. So, we would be back to square one.

Also, any suggestion that a government in a democratic setting can buy and sell food to tens of millions of people is laughable. Who will buy on behalf of the government and sell to people. Civil servants? What a joke. And who will be in charge of the hundreds of billions that would be deployed? Political appointees? What an even bigger joke.

The only countries that can successfully carry out such a huge undertaking are North Korea, China, Cuba, and may be Russia. And that's because in these countries, they don't need any court to tell them to shoot you if you are corrupt. They can do it on the spot.

In Nigeria, the scheme will turn out to be the biggest corruption fest since Lord Lugard first stepped foot here

It is easy to proffer solutions, but most solutions cant survive the practical realities of Nigeria.

As for Mr Agbakogba's question concerning NNPCL role as a sole off taker:

Well, again that is a matter for the seller and the buyer. Infact, Dangote refinery must be happy it will deal with only one buyer instead of thousands with all the associated headache.

It seems NNPCL is also happy with the arrangement. No problem then.

Finally, Mr Agbakogba will know that the concept of sole off taker is common in large utility and commodity transactions of national importance because it has some unique advantages.

That is why most electricity GENCOs in Nigeria have only one or a handful of off takers. For complex revolving transactions involving huge recurring financial transfers, the sole off taker model is often a preferred option.

So NNPCL being a sole off taker is not the strangest or the most controversial thing in the world.

The off taker concept also explains why you and I can't go to Kainji dam to buy our electricity! The operator of the dam would rather sell all its generated power to one or a few Discos.

Also, the suggestion that NNPCL is doing the work of or sidelining the NUPRC is not supported by evidence.

As you rightly stated, under the PIA the NUPRC has responsibility to regulate. But in law, regulation does not mean setting prices.

How can NUPRC, a regulator, set the price of petrol between 2 private companies.

So, which regulator sets the price of a trailer-load of indomie between indomie manufacturer and its distributors? None abi.

That's because it is a matter for a buyer and seller to determine the price at which they trade.

It is no different with Dangote refinery and NNPCL.

Ofcourse NNPCL's sole shareholder, ie the government, may/will be having their own discussions with the NNPCL behind the scene to try and get the best price possible from Dangote refinery. That is perfectly legitimate.

I often wonder at the basic lack of understanding often displayed by some lawyers.

This is a recurring issue with Mr Agbakogba and Mr Falana because they often chook mouth into things outside the law that they don't really understand.

Especially Mr Falana, you see him jumping from one news station to another pontificating on every topic from international economics, to science, monetary and fiscal policies among others, and in most cases, he just misfires, showing very little knowledge of the subject matter. Yet he has convinced himself that he is an expert in everything.

Mr Agbakogba:

1. NNPCL has not set any price. As a buyer, NNPCL approached Dangote refinery, a manufacturer, on a willing buyer, willing seller basis. They negotiated and agreed a price.

ÑNPCL, then announced to potential buyers the price it would sell to them.

How does that constitute 'setting the price of petrol' in Nigeria. Petrol importers are free to sell at any price they like. Is NNPCL forcing them to sell their petrol at a stipulated price?

2. You say crude oil is a natural resource. Yes, but it stopped being a natural resource the moment the country sells to and receives payment from a 3rd party buyer.

The crude that Dangote refinery bought ceased to be a natural resource the moment the government was paid for it. And from that moment, the government can't dictate to Dangote refinery how much he can sell the byproducts of the crude.

So, any suggestion that the government, NUPRC, or NNPCL can dictate price to Dangote refinery because the crude is a natural resource is clearly wrong.

Pe

The speed on that bridge ehn.

Can NNPC, Dangote and Federal government please leave Nigerians alone with their per second release of data and counter data.

We are tired.

Just supply the goddamn petrol to filling stations.

That No.2 point is a double edged sword.

Yes cement blocks help to reduce the direct effect of heat during the day, but the pain comes in the evening and night when it releases all the absorbed heat back into the house, making sleeping at night a sweaty hellish experience between February and April.

I think by now we should have found an alternative to cement blocks that is more suited to our local environmental conditions.

How come old mud houses don't get as hot as modern cement block houses.

Oyinbo man introduced cement blocks, we immediately dumped our own local approach that worked well. Smh

With all the professors with big big titles that are in Nigerian universities, we still can't find a way to adapt mud technology to build modern houses.

WhizdomXX:

How will NNPCL ever be lower when they are the ones selling to marketers, and giving license to them all these while?

But that is the truth.

For about 3 years or so now, NNPCL was the sole importer because other companies that used to import a few years ago could no longer afford the financial cost.

So NNPCL would import and sell to independent marketers at around N560. NNPLC sold through its own filing stations at around N560 - N620 depending on how far a state is from Lagos.

However, by the time the petrol that independent marketers bought from NNPCL at below N560 reach independent retail outlets the price was around N760 - 790.

That's nearly N250 per litre more than the price NNPCL sold it to them.

Even NNPCL was confused. It couldn't understand the abracadabra of the independent marketers

If NNPCL say anything, this powerful group would threaten to stop lifting oil, which would make the situation worse and send prices even higher.

So NNPC cannot win with them.

Even with NNPC being the sole off taker from Dangote, these powerful independent marketers will still find a way to manipulate the process to their advantage.

That is why the only long term solution is for NNPC to continue to buy up more filling stations to increase the number of stations it has.

bigpicture001:


Why is IPMAN itself avoing to lift Dangote diesel...,,? They aid it's too cheap .are they not also sabotaging Nigerians...?

Exactly.

They have been an albatross around the neck of vehicle owners for years.

They hoard fuel.
They never disclose the true price they buy at.
If they don't get their way, they create artificial scarcity so they can sell at outrageous prices.

Nigerians have been at their mercy all these years.

The fact that any vehicle owner will side with them is unbelievable.

ÑNPC filling stations are always cheaper than them.

I support NNPC.

Samunique:
The NNPCL is obviously the problem of this country. The early they removed that northern man ( Kyari ) the better for this country.

On this particular deal, it is difficult to see what NNPCL has done wrong.

They have negotiated to get the best price they can get from Dangote, and from the pricing information they published this morning, NNPC are not really profiting much from this deal.

If those greedy independent marketers have been allowed to buy directly from Dangote, they would have used their usual magomago to make sure we don't know how much they bought from Dangote, and they will sell for N1300 or N1400.

These same independent marketers that some of you people are now supporting are the same people that have jacked up the price of petrol to as much as N1100 or more over the past 3 months, even when NNPCL was selling at around N600.

They are also the ones who hide petrol in their filling stations to create artificial scarcity so they can extort vehicle owners with outrageous prices.

Any time they don't get their way, they threaten to go on strike.

NNPCL is not good, but I 100% prefer it to be in charge than independent marketers.

To back up.my point, has there ever been a time when NNPCL filling stations sell petrol at a price higher than independent filling stations. Never. NNPCL stations are always cheaper.

I hope NNPCL will continue to buy more and more filling stations so they are present in every corner of the country.

It makes over five trillion naira sense.

That's how much it cost every year for NNPC/Nigeria to subsidise in order to keep petrol price at around N600.

And it was borrowed money that future generations will have to pay back.

Remove all petrol subsidy and let us pay the market price.

Mr Jonathan or Mr Buhari removed kerosene subsidy. People wailed that heavens will fall. It has not fallen.

Either Mr Buhari or maybe it was Mr Jonathan removed diesel subsidy. Businesses wailed that heavens will fall. Heaven hasn't.

If petrol subsidy is removed, and the country stops the bone-headed, stupid borrowing to pay for subsidy, it will be to the long term benefit of Nigeria. And heavens will still not fall.

Infact, I suspect heavens will smile and say, finally, sense got to these ones.

Ttipsy:
Seeing IMO and her sister RIVERS on that list with such price is so so annoying

For an oil rich states

The States can set up their own refineries and sell at N500.

I am sure vehicle owners would be happy.

I personally don't have a problem with the price of electricity, though I can understand that the experience of those in Band A is probably different.

I have always used electricity judiciously, so any pre paid electricity I buy tends to last for a reasonable length of time.

I have always been fastidious about switching off all gadgets FROM THE WALL.

First thing I do when I get out of bed is to pull my curtains so I take advantage of natural light. So, most if not all internal lights are off for most parts of the day unless I absolutely need it.

If I am leaving a room and not returning to that room within 5 mins, I switch off the light. Lights in any room that is not occupied is always switched off.

These are just habits that have become part of my routine. I don't do them because of electricity bill, but it has a very positive effect on my electricity bill. I have not bought electricity for about 3 months now, so cost of electricity is really not an issue for me.

Many Nigerians use electricity wastefully because we have one of the cheapest electricity prices in the world. But that is going to change with the introduction of new bands.

commoditiesnig:

Very true. Law of Demand and Supply

Not 100% correct actually.

The law of demand and supply works perfectly with certain products, but not with others.

It may work well for certain consumer products like tomatoes, water, garri etc

But it doesn't work perfectly for a product like petrol where the manufacturer/producer/seller has a production cost that it can't really influence that much because the price of the input material is determined internationally.

So there is a certain level below which a refinery cannot sell .... at least not for long.

Glaxo, Cadbury etc can operate at a loss in Nigeria for 3, 4, 5 years or even longer before closing down. That's because their operations and therefore losses are relatively small compared to a loss-making refinery.

A loss making large refinery will shut down rather than permanently sell at a loss making cheaper price due to over supply. Or they find markets in other countries.

So the coming on board of Port Harcourt and Warri refinery and other refineries currently being built will not reduce price by more than N5 to N10 or thereabout per litre.

Salewa97:
Good.

The price of petrol is gradually dropping. By the time the private refinery starts selling, the price would have dropped more

2023 AD - by the time Dangote refinery starts...

2024 AD - by the time other refineries start...

None of the 'by the time' will reduce price below cost of production. So expecting cheap petrol if more refineries are working is fanciful.

Refineries will rather close down than permanently sell at a loss-making price.

Outside of subsidy, the only other factors that can bring down the price of petrol is if the price of crude falls significantly on the international market or naira appreciates significantly against the dollar .

There is this other guy on social media who has been jumping from Arise TV to Channels, and back to Arise TV since the protests making false, outlandish, libelous statements.

A couple of days can't go by without him appearing on a TV programme to talk recklessly.

I heard he recently acquired a law degree or finished law school. I don't know which one.

The man is a disgrace to the Nigerian legal education system because he doesn't understand legal boundaries at all. He feels entitled to say whatever he likes.

If he is invited for questioning or arrested now, he will claim his arrest is an attempt to silence him.

Smh

Any of them that causes breach of the peace should be promptly arrested, and prosecuted if there is enough evidence.

If they want to protest the arrest of an individual, no problem.

But they must do it peacefully and outside the perimeters of the airport.

The Nigerian constitution did not give a special status to persons who claim to be human rights advocates.

They are subject to the law of the land like every one else.

favor914:
He is guilty as presumed.

Well, I won't go that far.

He is innocent until found guilty.

Incitement is a crime.

If he is investigated, charged, and convicted, no problem.

Claiming you're a human rights advocate doesn't put you above the law nor is it a licence to talk any how.

Minjim:
To think just last month NNPCL was selling at #580. As soon as they heard Dangote is ready to roll out they increased to #890.
By the way, what happened to the PH Refinery?

Have we all forgotten about that ?

Even that one will not sell cheaper than Dangote.

Minjim:


How are they able to get it out of the country in trucks? The FG and NC are complicit. Petrol are smuggled in large trucks and they move freely across the border.

The question is, who are the FG and Nigerian Customs.

Are they not Nigerians from this same society where corruption is rampant?

Why do you think Nigerian Customs will be any different.

And if it was that easy to find many honest Nigerians, every government since independence would have solved the issue of corruption.

But they haven't and they can't.

Society has a big corruption problem. Until the people decide to change their ways, corruption will continue to ruin things.

Gustavo356:
Buy in Naira and Sell in Naira will be a significant change.
I only wish the price will drop back to N180/litre

That's not possible.

If the government announces N180 price per litre, by the next day, Naira will fall to at least N1800 to a dollar, N2200 within a week, and by mid October, we would be lucky if it is not above N2,500 to one dollar.

Then a worse economic pain will start.

Nigerians will be begging the government to please stop subsidy and return the price of petrol to N800 or above.

Even if the government increase the price then, the damage to Nigeria's credibility will be done and the naira may not return to the N1,600 it is today.

Nigerians assumes the government can just do anything it likes. It mostly can't.

The value of the Nigeria is not 100% determined by what is happening within Nigeria but also the sentiments of international financiers and trade partners concerning the naira.

daragrams:
Dangote is selling at N766

Ok, so my estimate of a pump price of around N800 - N850 may not be far fetched

Minjim:
You're about to lift petrol and bring it to the market and no announcement of any official price.
Why all this secrecy? I'm these people are planning something not in the interest of Nigerians

I don't understand the secrecy too.

However, I think we will know the price within the next 2 days as the petrol starts being sold at filling stations.

I suspect NNPC will make no formal announcement of price now because they probably believe doing so will dominate the news and create unnecessary drama for NNPCL.

Bro, whatever price you buy on Tues or Wednesday at any NNPCL filling station is the new price.

I suspect the price will be close to the current price at NNPCL filling stations.

At least N800 - N850.

Otherwise, why would NNPCL suddenly jack up its price 2 - 3 weeks ago. They were prepping us for this new reality.

joseph1832:
Read what exactly?

Celebrating the use of CNG when it hasn't even gotten to everywhere in Nigeria, when in fact, there are many rural areas that don't have filling station, talkless of having CNG conversion centres?

So government should never introduce any new policy unless they can start it in every corner, village, town, and city in Nigeria on the same day

Chai.